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Post by wannabee on Feb 26, 2024 0:46:06 GMT
Two years in and it looks like there’s no chance of Ukraine taking back their territory militarily. Opportunity lost the summer before last. Ukraine needs to take the war to Russia cities now. People would have said something similar in 1941 TBF.I'm convinced you're right about the delays in Western aid dragging the war out though. Delays then caused more death and financial cost. Delays now do the same. The political/ideological alliance between Russia, NK, Iran and the Republican Party could only be overcome by US voters in November or Europe committing at Danish or Polish levels. If the republicans win the election it looks like being a long war and Putin will be very emboldened. They would indeed but they didn't factor in Hitlers Hubris in breaking the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact which precipitated Russia entering WW11 on the side of the Allies Ultimately it was Russia's sheer manpower of up to 1M Russian Soldiers encircling Stalingrad in Operation Uranus ( Up your Arse if you like) which encircled the German 6th Army at Stalingrad which altered the course of WW 11 in Europe In total up to 30M Russian Soldiers died to defeat Hitler I think you overplay an idealogical alliance between Republican Party and Russia/NK/Iran they are just not interested As for Poland and Denmark, Poland is about the same Military strength as Ukraine, less on Manpower better on Air Cover. Denmark by comparison is a pimple but good that its intending to increase its current Military spending of below NATO target of 1.4% up to 3% in the next five years. Irrespective neither are going to become active in a non NATO conflict It's very hard to see what will break the current Deadlock.
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Post by musik on Feb 26, 2024 9:29:51 GMT
China want Sweden and particularly the Swedish Security Police to leave the Cold War-mentality.
But Sweden say China destroy Swedish economy long term. They are also accused of seeking info about the chinese people living in Sweden.
China, Iran and Russia are the three countries they have marked as risks.
Today soon Hungary will vote about the Swedish Nato membership.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Feb 26, 2024 9:56:53 GMT
Time to sit Putin round a table and do a deal. The prolonging of this war benefits no civilian.
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Post by cvillestokie on Feb 26, 2024 11:07:38 GMT
Time to sit Putin round a table and do a deal. The prolonging of this war benefits no civilian. And if Putin wants half of Ukraine?
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Feb 26, 2024 11:24:06 GMT
Time to sit Putin round a table and do a deal. The prolonging of this war benefits no civilian. And if Putin wants half of Ukraine? That's where negotiation kicks in. Just about every war in history ends in some kind of negotiation and this will be no different. The sooner they get on with it, the better.
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Post by hcstokie on Feb 26, 2024 11:25:32 GMT
And if Putin wants half of Ukraine? That's where negotiation kicks in. Just about every war in history ends in some kind of negotiation and this will be no different. The sooner they get on with it, the better. So you give in to some of his demands now. What happens in a couple of years when he invaded again and tries to take the rest? Appeasement does not work!
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Post by cvillestokie on Feb 26, 2024 11:28:17 GMT
And if Putin wants half of Ukraine? That's where negotiation kicks in. Just about every war in history ends in some kind of negotiation and this will be no different. The sooner they get on with it, the better. If you are Ukrainian though, you’d want to start a negotiation after an important victory though, not a loss. If Saudi invaded the UK, would you be okay with the idea of the govt giving up everything from Leeds down to Birmingham to them, or would you want to keep fighting?
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Feb 26, 2024 11:29:25 GMT
That's where negotiation kicks in. Just about every war in history ends in some kind of negotiation and this will be no different. The sooner they get on with it, the better. So you give in to some of his demands now. What happens in a couple of years when he invaded again and tries to take the rest? Appeasement does not work! I don't think he would to be honest. For a start, he won't be able to run rings around a US president who doesn't know what day it is. Also, what's the alternative? Ukraine won't be able to make any further significant gains against Russia in the East. The war is done and it's now going through the motions which still involves lives being lost. It needs tidying up and an agreement needs to be signed.
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Post by cvillestokie on Feb 26, 2024 11:33:25 GMT
So you give in to some of his demands now. What happens in a couple of years when he invaded again and tries to take the rest? Appeasement does not work! I don't think he would to be honest. For a start, he won't be able to run rings around a US president who doesn't know what day it is. Also, what's the alternative? Ukraine won't be able to make any further significant gains against Russia in the East. The war is done and it's now going through the motions which still involves lives being lost. It needs tidying up and an agreement needs to be signed. Trump will shit himself around Putin. He’d guise it in “America First” but it’s not more than “I’m a coward, please pick on someone else”.
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Post by adri2008 on Feb 26, 2024 11:49:11 GMT
I don't think he would to be honest. For a start, he won't be able to run rings around a US president who doesn't know what day it is. Also, what's the alternative? Ukraine won't be able to make any further significant gains against Russia in the East. The war is done and it's now going through the motions which still involves lives being lost. It needs tidying up and an agreement needs to be signed. Trump will shit himself around Putin. He’d guise it in “America First” but it’s not more than “I’m a coward, please pick on someone else”. Trump loves the idea of being a deal maker - he will force an end to the war and then make a huge deal about it. A negotiated settlement is inevitable now as Russia can absorb more casualties and Ukraine will reach a point where it simply doesn't have the man power to continue if it's not there already. I suspect borders will roughly be set with current positions - Putin/Zelensky will both sell it as a win and the world will move on.
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Post by cvillestokie on Feb 26, 2024 11:54:14 GMT
Trump will shit himself around Putin. He’d guise it in “America First” but it’s not more than “I’m a coward, please pick on someone else”. Trump loves the idea of being a deal maker - he will force an end to the war and then make a huge deal about it. A negotiated settlement is inevitable now as Russia can absorb more casualties and Ukraine will reach a point where it simply doesn't have the man power to continue if it's not there already. I suspect borders will roughly be set with current positions - Putin/Zelensky will both sell it as a win and the world will move on. Trump has made terrible deals all his life. That’s why he’s been bankrupt so often. The only deal he’s ever made that was seen to be good was selling his name to foreign entities who benefited from having an “American name” on their product. The only way he’d force an end to the war is by abandoning US allies and effectively siding with Putin. Weakness is the draft dodger’s primary trait though. There’s not a chance that Russia would stop there. They’d wait, rebuild and re-pillage. Scandinavia would likely be next.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Feb 26, 2024 12:04:57 GMT
Trump will shit himself around Putin. He’d guise it in “America First” but it’s not more than “I’m a coward, please pick on someone else”. Trump loves the idea of being a deal maker - he will force an end to the war and then make a huge deal about it. A negotiated settlement is inevitable now as Russia can absorb more casualties and Ukraine will reach a point where it simply doesn't have the man power to continue if it's not there already. I suspect borders will roughly be set with current positions - Putin/Zelensky will both sell it as a win and the world will move on. Nailed it. I'm not sure what anyone else expects.
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Post by lordb on Feb 26, 2024 12:05:38 GMT
People would have said something similar in 1941 TBF.I'm convinced you're right about the delays in Western aid dragging the war out though. Delays then caused more death and financial cost. Delays now do the same. The political/ideological alliance between Russia, NK, Iran and the Republican Party could only be overcome by US voters in November or Europe committing at Danish or Polish levels. If the republicans win the election it looks like being a long war and Putin will be very emboldened. They would indeed but they didn't factor in Hitlers Hubris in breaking the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact which precipitated Russia entering WW11 on the side of the Allies Ultimately it was Russia's sheer manpower of up to 1M Russian Soldiers encircling Stalingrad in Operation Uranus ( Up your Arse if you like) which encircled the German 6th Army at Stalingrad which altered the course of WW 11 in Europe In total up to 30M Russian Soldiers died to defeat Hitler I think you overplay an idealogical alliance between Republican Party and Russia/NK/Iran they are just not interested As for Poland and Denmark, Poland is about the same Military strength as Ukraine, less on Manpower better on Air Cover. Denmark by comparison is a pimple but good that its intending to increase its current Military spending of below NATO target of 1.4% up to 3% in the next five years. Irrespective neither are going to become active in a non NATO conflict It's very hard to see what will break the current Deadlock. Time Eventually Putin dies and Russia goes home
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Post by lordb on Feb 26, 2024 12:07:42 GMT
So you give in to some of his demands now. What happens in a couple of years when he invaded again and tries to take the rest? Appeasement does not work! I don't think he would to be honest. For a start, he won't be able to run rings around a US president who doesn't know what day it is. Also, what's the alternative? Ukraine won't be able to make any further significant gains against Russia in the East. The war is done and it's now going through the motions which still involves lives being lost. It needs tidying up and an agreement needs to be signed. Of course he would he's not a politician, he's not open to negotiation other than as a means to allow him to rebuild and attack again and again and again until he's stopped
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Post by prestwichpotter on Feb 26, 2024 12:16:34 GMT
Trump will shit himself around Putin. He’d guise it in “America First” but it’s not more than “I’m a coward, please pick on someone else”. Trump loves the idea of being a deal maker - he will force an end to the war and then make a huge deal about it. A negotiated settlement is inevitable now as Russia can absorb more casualties and Ukraine will reach a point where it simply doesn't have the man power to continue if it's not there already. I suspect borders will roughly be set with current positions - Putin/Zelensky will both sell it as a win and the world will move on. A negotiated settlement was always going to be the best outcome on offer I'm afraid. NATO and the members never backed the Ukrainian military fully and unequivocally, it was always in fits and starts and we're now at the inevitable stalemate with tragic loss of life...........
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Post by adri2008 on Feb 26, 2024 12:24:02 GMT
Trump loves the idea of being a deal maker - he will force an end to the war and then make a huge deal about it. A negotiated settlement is inevitable now as Russia can absorb more casualties and Ukraine will reach a point where it simply doesn't have the man power to continue if it's not there already. I suspect borders will roughly be set with current positions - Putin/Zelensky will both sell it as a win and the world will move on. Trump has made terrible deals all his life. That’s why he’s been bankrupt so often. The only deal he’s ever made that was seen to be good was selling his name to foreign entities who benefited from having an “American name” on their product. The only way he’d force an end to the war is by abandoning US allies and effectively siding with Putin. Weakness is the draft dodger’s primary trait though. There’s not a chance that Russia would stop there. They’d wait, rebuild and re-pillage. Scandinavia would likely be next. Putin likes to operate in 'grey' areas so he can appear reasonable. I can't see a scenario where he'd attack a NATO member as the alliance would be forced to respond else reveal itself to be a paper tiger which would be the end of it.
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Post by wagsastokie on Feb 26, 2024 13:05:40 GMT
The only negotiation that should take place Is how much Russia will pay to rebuild a free and complete Ukraine
And as soon as Putin is fully made aware of this the sooner the war will cease
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Post by mtrstudent on Feb 26, 2024 16:41:39 GMT
Putin likes to operate in 'grey' areas so he can appear reasonable. I can't see a scenario where he'd attack a NATO member as the alliance would be forced to respond else reveal itself to be a paper tiger which would be the end of it. I think our weakness on Ukraine has persuaded Putin there's a chance NATO is a paper tiger. If trump wins Vlad will be confident the US will have switched to team dictatorship and could betray us. Depending on whether republicans have finished overthrowing free and fair elections in the US. E.g. Russia invaded Crimea and Donbas in 2014 but the Donbas invasion was dressed up as a local operation where "freedom fighters" just "found" a bunch of tanks lying around. He could do the same thing in the Baltics. If Biden loses I think we're risking russian troops in NATO in 3-10 years. Or unless European defence spending goes way way up and we put German, French and British soldiers right along the border with Russia.
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Post by mtrstudent on Feb 26, 2024 16:47:38 GMT
Trump loves the idea of being a deal maker - he will force an end to the war and then make a huge deal about it. A negotiated settlement is inevitable now as Russia can absorb more casualties and Ukraine will reach a point where it simply doesn't have the man power to continue if it's not there already. I suspect borders will roughly be set with current positions - Putin/Zelensky will both sell it as a win and the world will move on. Nailed it. I'm not sure what anyone else expects. Trump advertises being a deal maker. Which deals did he actually achieve? Multiple Bankruptcies. Stealing from people and then using his wealth to lawyer and intimidate them. His plan seems to be to cut off aid to Ukraine. All that does is escalate the war and encourage Putin. Biden over Trump is the main hope for western democracy to survive now.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Feb 26, 2024 17:34:35 GMT
Nailed it. I'm not sure what anyone else expects. Trump advertises being a deal maker. Which deals did he actually achieve? Multiple Bankruptcies. Stealing from people and then using his wealth to lawyer and intimidate them. His plan seems to be to cut off aid to Ukraine. All that does is escalate the war and encourage Putin. Biden over Trump is the main hope for western democracy to survive now. I get that it's not a perfect solution but the time has now come for a negotiation. It just isn't going to end for years otherwise.
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Post by gawa on Feb 26, 2024 18:00:17 GMT
Who are the best Russian/pro Russian sources of information on the war? Always good to read different sources but no idea where to start with Russian ones.
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Post by adri2008 on Feb 26, 2024 18:11:21 GMT
Putin likes to operate in 'grey' areas so he can appear reasonable. I can't see a scenario where he'd attack a NATO member as the alliance would be forced to respond else reveal itself to be a paper tiger which would be the end of it. I think our weakness on Ukraine has persuaded Putin there's a chance NATO is a paper tiger. If trump wins Vlad will be confident the US will have switched to team dictatorship and could betray us. Depending on whether republicans have finished overthrowing free and fair elections in the US. E.g. Russia invaded Crimea and Donbas in 2014 but the Donbas invasion was dressed up as a local operation where "freedom fighters" just "found" a bunch of tanks lying around. He could do the same thing in the Baltics. If Biden loses I think we're risking russian troops in NATO in 3-10 years. Or unless European defence spending goes way way up and we put German, French and British soldiers right along the border with Russia. The Baltics would definitely be the most likely though it'd be a direct attack on the EU as well as NATO so a full on European war would become inevitable at that point. I definitely think Europe should be starting to think about how it defends itself without US support though so we aren't at the mercy of the whims of US politicians.
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Post by adri2008 on Feb 26, 2024 18:19:29 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Feb 26, 2024 18:36:28 GMT
Trump advertises being a deal maker. Which deals did he actually achieve? Multiple Bankruptcies. Stealing from people and then using his wealth to lawyer and intimidate them. His plan seems to be to cut off aid to Ukraine. All that does is escalate the war and encourage Putin. Biden over Trump is the main hope for western democracy to survive now. I get that it's not a perfect solution but the time has now come for a negotiation. It just isn't going to end for years otherwise. Sounds like the same thing people would have said in 1941. (Edit: I don't mean this aggressively, more thoughtfully. I genuinely think the situations are similar). I think the Ukrainians should decide. They understand russians the best. Do you know what Russia's demands are? If I were Ukrainian, I would fight for years rather than guarantee my own people's genocide. Perhaps Putin with help from NK and the republicans will be able to break their will, but polling says that's nowhere near happening yet.
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Post by OldStokie on Feb 26, 2024 20:59:32 GMT
I reckon those who oppose Trump in the US have missed a trick. They should call Trump and his cronies, 'Putin's Puppets' so often that it becomes an election slogan. Because he's such a narcissist it's possible that Trump would be so angry at that, that he'd he'd change his mind about funding Ukraine just to deny that slogan.
OS.
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Post by lordb on Feb 26, 2024 22:24:22 GMT
I see Sweden has now joined NATO after Orban/Hungary signed up to it
Thats a bad day for Putin
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Post by mtrstudent on Feb 27, 2024 16:29:33 GMT
South Korean intelligence now says North Korea has sent over 3 million shells to Putin. That's an insane number, more than Russia makes in a whole year.
Republicans are still blockading US aid, helping the brut dictator to kill far more Ukrainians and make some advances.
We're going to see more Ukrainian land lost soon thanks to the Russia-North Korea-Republican Party axis.
Ukrainians are fighting line demons and so long as there are no more major delays in mobilisation and aid, the experts hope things will stabilise in late summer.
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Post by mtrstudent on Feb 27, 2024 16:34:17 GMT
Russian vehicles knocked out, south of just one village they're attacking right now. Video. This attack was in January, they're still attacking the same village. They lost something like 400+ armoured vehicles taking Avdiivka.
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Post by mtrstudent on Feb 27, 2024 16:37:24 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Feb 28, 2024 16:13:39 GMT
South Korean intelligence says North Korean has now given Russia at least 3 million shells. Republicans are still blocking US aid to Ukraine.
The joint North Korean-Republican help for Putin has fucked Ukraine for now.
Ukraine says their new defensive line is miles back west from Avdiivka so they'll fall back further in the coming weeks.
The Czech Republic have found 800,000 shells for sale and Denmark, Canada, the Netherlands and Bulgaria are pitching in cash. If we can buy and send 200k shells/month and deliver them within weeks, that should be enough to stop Russia from taking any more Avdiivka sized towns and burn out the current russian offensive.
Once this offensive is done, Putin is gambling everything on his western allies like Trump. If the democrats win 2024 then Putin's fucked.
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