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Post by StaffordPotter on Nov 29, 2020 16:41:08 GMT
In all fairness I wouldn't want to see them go down as hilarious it would be.
Derby is a decent away trip. Although I get the Uttoxetor lot having a strong dislike for them. It's the same with us lot in Stafford and those six fingered orange wankers.
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 18:00:22 GMT
Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2020 18:00:22 GMT
Very interesting point but you’d have to think carefully about the best way to assess the form of the sides a team is facing - at what point does form turn? A team that lost four but then won the last two could well be high on confidence and “in form” in the sense that something has clicked and they’ve turned a corner, however they would show up as a team in relatively poor form over six games. Also there’s home and away form, there are potentially huge variations there, depending on the side. Some takeaways from building these models. Six game form has lots of statistical noise, home or away form, ditto. So use these sample sizes as descriptive of a team, rather than predictive. More is better, so rate sides over the underlying performance (process) in at least the last 40+ games, weighted for recency. Don't expect teams to finish where they deserve, even after a 46 game season. Here's the range of finishing positions possible based on the individual performance metrics (xG) recorded in all 552 games last season. You have to be pretty good in this league (like Leeds good) to virtually guarantee a top two finish. View AttachmentVery interesting. That kind of clarifies what a lot of us felt last year, that we were quite unfortunate to be in the mess we were. Also interesting is the teams that finished 6th-8th. Forest just missed out on the playoffs but in actuality, if xG is a worthwhile metric, had almost as equal a chance of getting relegated. They're really struggling this year. Maybe they were on the right side of variance for most of last season and they're closer to their expectation this year? Also mental that bottom placed hull had a 1% chance of automatic promotion based on xG. Variance is huuuuge in football.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2020 18:02:52 GMT
Ye in relation to football I think "process" means the EG numbers. Another interesting way you could judge variance in football over short-medium term samples, and one that I don't believe anybody ever focuses on or thinks about, is the average form of the opponents that a team faces. Confidence is massive and it seems to me totally possible that, if you were to tot up the numbers for where an opponent is in the form table when your team faces them, and then work out an average over the season, there might be some big deviations in those figures. Come the end of the season, I bet there would be a fairly startling gap between the luckiest and unluckiest teams in that regard. Just pulling the figures out of my arsehole, maybe the luckiest team ends up facing opponents averaging about 13th-14th in the form table, whereas the unluckiest team faces an average of 11th-10th. That doesn't sound like much but it is if you think about it. And who knows, maybe it would be more extreme than that? If I had the time to crunch those numbers I'd do it because I reckon it would be an eye opener. Very interesting point but you’d have to think carefully about the best way to assess the form of the sides a team is facing - at what point does form turn? A team that lost four but then won the last two could well be high on confidence and “in form” in the sense that something has clicked and they’ve turned a corner, however they would show up as a team in relatively poor form over six games. Also there’s home and away form, there are potentially huge variations there, depending on the side. Ye I was having thoughts along similar lines as I wrote my post last night. You'd have to come up with some sort of scoring system to account for the variables. If you're going off the last 6 games, even if two teams you face have won 3 lost 3 of the last 6, it has to make a difference if one had lost the last 3 in a row after winning 3 in a row, or vice versa. Maybe you could assign points based on the positiveness of the most recent results. So a win in the last game has more value than a win 6 games ago. Also, the opposition faced in those matches has to count for something too. A draw away at the league leaders when you were 10/1 is worth more than a scrappy win at home vs the whipping boys, etc. If I was retired / not a lazy prick, I'd have a crack at doing a report on this concept. Although the more I think about it the more complex it becomes, but there's definitely a good and relevant system there that further measures variance in football alongside xG.
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 18:27:12 GMT
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Post by cheadlepotter on Nov 29, 2020 18:27:12 GMT
Best priced at 13/8 for the drop and as short as 1/1. They need form of a roughly end of season 15th placed team to reach the average points (from 1995/96 onwards) needed to survive. So to be comfortable I reckon the form of a 11th place team.
I think 13/8 might be good value especially if they go for Rooney permanently.
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 18:32:38 GMT
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Post by albundy on Nov 29, 2020 18:32:38 GMT
In all fairness I wouldn't want to see them go down as hilarious it would be. Derby is a decent away trip. Although I get the Uttoxetor lot having a strong dislike for them. It's the same with us lot in Stafford and those six fingered orange wankers. There are enough of those too in Uttoxeter
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Post by tachyon on Nov 30, 2020 9:19:52 GMT
Out of curiosity, what do you mean by “process” mate? Where are Stoke currently in that measurement? A quick analogy because FM has summed it up really well. Take a fair coin. The expectation is that, in the long-term you will tend towards flipping 50% heads & 50% tails. (The process of the coin is 0.5). You flip it 10 times and get 7 heads. (That's the outcome). The difference between the average expectation and the actual otcome is down to variance (or luck for a catch all term). It's a good result, (assuming your aim is to flip heads), but you haven't improved the coin's process and if you want to continually get more heads than tails, that's what you need to do. You can't just rely on positive variance. You have to created a weighted coin or in football terms start doing more good things (like creating lots of good chances & restricting the opposition), even if variance (luck) sometimes gives you a bad outcome. Most forum/pundit talk revolves around the outcome (that's fine, it's just bants after all). But all smartly run football clubs do the opposite, they "trust the process" & let results take a back seat.
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Derby
Nov 30, 2020 9:29:28 GMT
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Post by StaffordPotter on Nov 30, 2020 9:29:28 GMT
In all fairness I wouldn't want to see them go down as hilarious it would be. Derby is a decent away trip. Although I get the Uttoxetor lot having a strong dislike for them. It's the same with us lot in Stafford and those six fingered orange wankers. There are enough of those too in Uttoxeter Well there will be now they reckon they are the biggest club in world football. Tossers.
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Derby
Nov 30, 2020 11:58:24 GMT
Post by Laughing Gravy on Nov 30, 2020 11:58:24 GMT
There are enough of those too in Uttoxeter Well there will be now they reckon they are the biggest club in world football. Tossers. So you know exactly how us lot who live within bleating distance of Derby feel about the Sheepshagging wankers. I'm sure you'd gloat like fook if the Dingles took a sudden turn for the worse.
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Derby
Nov 30, 2020 12:16:59 GMT
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Post by mickstupp on Nov 30, 2020 12:16:59 GMT
When is the last time Derby were in the League 1?
Probably way before it was even called League 1...perhaps early to mid eighties?
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Nov 30, 2020 12:19:02 GMT
When is the last time Derby were in the League 1? Probably way before it was even called League 1...perhaps early to mid eighties? I think it was mid/late eighties mate when Arthur Cox was in charge
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Post by Northy on Nov 30, 2020 12:28:58 GMT
When is the last time Derby were in the League 1? Probably way before it was even called League 1...perhaps early to mid eighties? I think it was mid/late eighties mate when Arthur Cox was in charge Yes, 85/86 season, they won back to back promotions to Division 1 with him
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Post by StaffordPotter on Nov 30, 2020 13:25:53 GMT
Well there will be now they reckon they are the biggest club in world football. Tossers. So you know exactly how us lot who live within bleating distance of Derby feel about the Sheepshagging wankers. I'm sure you'd gloat like fook if the Dingles took a sudden turn for the worse. I most definitely would.
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Post by FullerMagic on Dec 1, 2020 21:58:19 GMT
2019-2020 Stoke City 15 2 2 11 13:27 -14 8
2020-2021 Derby 15 1 5 9 7:22 -15 8
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Derby
Dec 1, 2020 22:02:39 GMT
Post by Clem Fandango on Dec 1, 2020 22:02:39 GMT
oh dear
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Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2020 22:26:33 GMT
2019-2020 Stoke City 15 2 2 11 13:27 -14 8
2020-2021 Derby 15 1 5 9 7:22 -15 8They need to find themselves a MON. The Luton manager is doing well...
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Derby
Dec 1, 2020 22:32:36 GMT
Post by chigstoke on Dec 1, 2020 22:32:36 GMT
2019-2020 Stoke City 15 2 2 11 13:27 -14 8
2020-2021 Derby 15 1 5 9 7:22 -15 8They need to find themselves a MON. The Luton manager is doing well... Jones should rename himself to Jesus Christ, once he got his two only wins with us last season his cock must have been throbbing at the thought of being a miracle worker.
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Derby
Dec 1, 2020 22:52:25 GMT
Post by liathroid on Dec 1, 2020 22:52:25 GMT
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Post by maninasuitcase on Dec 1, 2020 22:55:36 GMT
I thought it had finished 0-0 Makes it even funnier now after Cov scored in the 91st minute 🤣🤣
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Derby
Dec 2, 2020 18:55:42 GMT
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Post by albundy on Dec 2, 2020 18:55:42 GMT
There are enough of those too in Uttoxeter Well there will be now they reckon they are the biggest club in world football. Tossers. The annoying yam yams have always been around
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Derby
Dec 2, 2020 19:20:20 GMT
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Post by zerps on Dec 2, 2020 19:20:20 GMT
Well there will be now they reckon they are the biggest club in world football. Tossers. The annoying yam yams have always been around Aye it!
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Post by stokeykez on Dec 2, 2020 22:17:51 GMT
Look forward to them dropping out of the league,Mel Morris has played the media with his appointment of frank lampards derby and now we have wayne Rooney's derby. Despise the club
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Derby
Dec 2, 2020 22:23:50 GMT
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Post by lordb on Dec 2, 2020 22:23:50 GMT
Do we play them last game?
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Derby
Dec 2, 2020 22:34:42 GMT
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Dec 2, 2020 22:34:42 GMT
Do we play them last game? Bournemouth I think
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Post by lordb on Dec 2, 2020 22:36:40 GMT
Do we play them last game? Bournemouth I think You are right Derby is in March Don't know where I got that idea from Can't see them staying up
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Derby
Dec 2, 2020 22:45:42 GMT
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Post by a on Dec 2, 2020 22:45:42 GMT
You are right Derby is in March Don't know where I got that idea from Can't see them staying up I think they’ll somehow turn it around. Not sure whether that’ll be with Rooney as coach or not. Wycombe, Rotherham and maybe Coventry or Barnsley I’d imagine would go down before Derby. But you never know.
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Derby
Mar 20, 2021 17:13:12 GMT
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Post by The battheader chronicles on Mar 20, 2021 17:13:12 GMT
They’re in real danger after today
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Derby
Mar 20, 2021 17:16:50 GMT
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Post by maninasuitcase on Mar 20, 2021 17:16:50 GMT
They’re in real danger after today Hope so 👍
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Post by cobhamstokey on Mar 20, 2021 17:17:52 GMT
They were really poor today. Generally just going through the motions with zero fight and little quality. Rotherham certainly impressed me more.
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Derby
Mar 20, 2021 17:19:06 GMT
Post by prestwichpotter on Mar 20, 2021 17:19:06 GMT
Rooney "It was like a testimonial"
He wants to be seriously worried for his players then cause they're in a relegation battle make no mistake.....
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Derby
Mar 20, 2021 17:20:00 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Mar 20, 2021 17:20:00 GMT
They were really poor today. Generally just going through the motions with zero fight and little quality. Rotherham certainly impressed me more. You'd be worrying if you are a Derby fan. No shots on target. Nothing created against a mid table side with nothing to play for. They were really really poor. Relegation certs if they carry on playing like they did today.
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