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Post by thehartshillbadger on Nov 26, 2020 19:48:56 GMT
He’s decided to stop doing the one thing he’s good at, to do the one thing he’s not currently good at, and that’s going to help the team... it’s genius! He's been getting pelters from the fans since he came back into the team for being complete gash. So it's perhaps not such good news after all. Let’s face it, as good a footballer as he was in his prime, he has the acumen of a pea. I hope they appoint him.
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Post by Fred Merger on Nov 26, 2020 21:09:13 GMT
Beginning to look like Derby will be staying in Tier 3! 😎
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Derby
Nov 26, 2020 22:12:57 GMT
Post by datguy on Nov 26, 2020 22:12:57 GMT
They're in the same position as us this time last year in the sense that they're 6 points from safety.
Was MO'N's first game MW16? Will be interesting to see how far away Derby are then...
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Post by lordb on Nov 26, 2020 22:13:57 GMT
They're in the same position as us this time last year in the sense that they're 6 points from safety. Was MO'N's first game MW16? Will be interesting to see how far away Derby are then... They are a few matches further in
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Derby
Nov 26, 2020 22:22:11 GMT
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Post by mickstupp on Nov 26, 2020 22:22:11 GMT
They're in the same position as us this time last year in the sense that they're 6 points from safety. Was MO'N's first game MW16? Will be interesting to see how far away Derby are then... Yes we had 8 points from 15 games prior to MON’s first game away to Barnsley. He won his first two, but lost his next three so we only had 14 points after 20 games.
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Derby
Nov 26, 2020 22:27:24 GMT
Post by Laughing Gravy on Nov 26, 2020 22:27:24 GMT
A couple more weeks and they will be entering the needing snookers (or MON) stage of proceedings To get to the magic 50 points they need 1.33 points per game. Which, as we know, for a shit team, no matter who's in charge, is a very big ask. And like for us last term, the other shit teams aren't rolling over and giving up either.
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Post by nottsover60 on Nov 27, 2020 0:07:37 GMT
Derby's goal of the month for November made me laugh
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Post by thevoid on Nov 27, 2020 1:49:14 GMT
As tempting as it is, I'm not going to dance on Derby's grave just yet. With billionaire owners looming they may have the last laugh- Leicester had a season in League One and look at them now. I would piss myself laughing if the takeover fell through though.
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Derby
Nov 27, 2020 8:56:17 GMT
Post by nottsover60 on Nov 27, 2020 8:56:17 GMT
I don't like laughing at anyone's demise but it just feels so good to think this time last year it was us. I have to say living on the notts/Derby's border knowing several fans they never gloated over Stoke's position last year. The only one that did was an exile Southampton fan who loved that Mark Hughes had saved them. Luckily I haven't seen him lately as I bet he's unbearable at the moment.
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Post by tachyon on Nov 27, 2020 9:19:24 GMT
Our plight after 13 games is nothing compared to that facing Derby. Here's the xG shot maps for both teams after 13 games for 2019/20 and 2020/21 respectively. I've highlighted so called big chances, which are your best opportunities to score based on xG and have lower variability than long range pot shots. The greyed out circles are all other attempts at goal. Defensively, we're about the same as Derby are now. Giving up a fair few good opportunities, but we were having a conversion crisis (a lot were going in, but that would inevitably improve). On the attacking side, Derby are a disaster zone. Every attempt bar one Rooney miss has been either speculative, from poor locations or they've been headers. They've created nothing of quality. Zilch. Compare that to us after 13 games and we were creating plenty of good quality chances, even if we were also having a slight conversion crisis at that end of the field as well (not many were going in, but that would inevitably improve). Derby are at square one in attack, we were at least at square two, if not three, even before MON arrived. Attachment Deleted
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Post by FullerMagic on Nov 27, 2020 9:48:34 GMT
Our plight after 13 games is nothing compared to that facing Derby. Here's the xG shot maps for both teams after 13 games for 2019/20 and 2020/21 respectively. I've highlighted so called big chances, which are your best opportunities to score based on xG and have lower variability than long range pot shots. The greyed out circles are all other attempts at goal. Defensively, we're about the same as Derby are now. Giving up a fair few good opportunities, but we were having a conversion crisis (a lot were going in, but that would inevitably improve). On the attacking side, Derby are a disaster zone. Every attempt bar one Rooney miss has been either speculative, from poor locations or they've been headers. They've created nothing of quality. Zilch. Compare that to us after 13 games and we were creating plenty of good quality chances, even if we were also having a slight conversion crisis at that end of the field as well (not many were going in, but that would inevitably improve). Derby are at square one in attack, we were at least at square two, if not three, even before MON arrived. View AttachmentBlimey - scary if you're a Derby fan to think you're several levels of ineptness beyond us at this point last season Rooney seems to have exited for the time being, so maybe that'll lead to a positive reorganisation. Their squad seems pretty good on paper
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Derby
Nov 28, 2020 16:50:46 GMT
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Post by mattyd2 on Nov 28, 2020 16:50:46 GMT
Bliss...
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Post by rickyfullerbeer on Nov 28, 2020 16:57:31 GMT
Rooney Out.
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Derby
Nov 28, 2020 17:04:10 GMT
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Post by mattyd2 on Nov 28, 2020 17:04:10 GMT
5.05 pm and STILL playing...that's some injury time
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 0:46:19 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2020 0:46:19 GMT
Got to be panicking now
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 1:42:30 GMT
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Goonie likes this
Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2020 1:42:30 GMT
The longer they go without putting a few consecutive wins together, the scarier it must be getting. I don’t know enough about the league to be able to provide anything but total speculation as to whether this is some false position given their squad or if this is actually indicative of genuine dearth of quality. Even if this is some form of false position at play though, they’re still in the shit because 14 games is enough to start providing big clues as to the final shape of the table. With that in mind, the chance of Derby actually being even just a mid-table team suffering terrible variance looks much slimmer than it did after a smaller number of games had elapsed. Also, variance is massive in football and something 99%+ of people are unconsciously incompetent about. I don’t know much about football but I know a lot about variance. Even if Derby are a mid-table quality team suffering terrible variance so far this campaign, they would now need clear top half type form for the rest of the year to survive (assuming 50 points for 21st) so they need their results now to be far above their true expectation. (Making the reasonable assumption that their true expectation is mid-table at best which is obviously optimistic for the sake of illustrating this point, more likely they’re a bottom 6 side in reality)
They are banking on positive variance now but there are no guarantees things will “even out” for them. And 46 games is nowhere near enough for the illusion of “evening out” to be created. The universe doesn’t give a shit about such matters. I’m just glad it’s not us again.
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Post by tachyon on Nov 29, 2020 10:59:51 GMT
The longer they go without putting a few consecutive wins together, the scarier it must be getting. I don’t know enough about the league to be able to provide anything but total speculation as to whether this is some false position given their squad or if this is actually indicative of genuine dearth of quality. Even if this is some form of false position at play though, they’re still in the shit because 14 games is enough to start providing big clues as to the final shape of the table. With that in mind, the chance of Derby actually being even just a mid-table team suffering terrible variance looks much slimmer than it did after a smaller number of games had elapsed. Also, variance is massive in football and something 99%+ of people are unconsciously incompetent about. I don’t know much about football but I know a lot about variance. Even if Derby are a mid-table quality team suffering terrible variance so far this campaign, they would now need clear top half type form for the rest of the year to survive (assuming 50 points for 21st) so they need their results now to be far above their true expectation. (Making the reasonable assumption that their true expectation is mid-table at best which is obviously optimistic for the sake of illustrating this point, more likely they’re a bottom 6 side in reality) They are banking on positive variance now but there are no guarantees things will “even out” for them. And 46 games is nowhere near enough for the illusion of “evening out” to be created. The universe doesn’t give a shit about such matters. I’m just glad it’s not us again. Derby were the third worst team in terms of process in 2019/20, but variance loved them. Hence the slightly deluded DCFC Twitter lovefest about a late playoff charge. This season they are the worse team process-wise and variance doesn't care in defence & has turned a bit nasty in attack. Great fun to watch.
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 11:32:01 GMT
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Post by mickstupp on Nov 29, 2020 11:32:01 GMT
The longer they go without putting a few consecutive wins together, the scarier it must be getting. I don’t know enough about the league to be able to provide anything but total speculation as to whether this is some false position given their squad or if this is actually indicative of genuine dearth of quality. Even if this is some form of false position at play though, they’re still in the shit because 14 games is enough to start providing big clues as to the final shape of the table. With that in mind, the chance of Derby actually being even just a mid-table team suffering terrible variance looks much slimmer than it did after a smaller number of games had elapsed. Also, variance is massive in football and something 99%+ of people are unconsciously incompetent about. I don’t know much about football but I know a lot about variance. Even if Derby are a mid-table quality team suffering terrible variance so far this campaign, they would now need clear top half type form for the rest of the year to survive (assuming 50 points for 21st) so they need their results now to be far above their true expectation. (Making the reasonable assumption that their true expectation is mid-table at best which is obviously optimistic for the sake of illustrating this point, more likely they’re a bottom 6 side in reality) They are banking on positive variance now but there are no guarantees things will “even out” for them. And 46 games is nowhere near enough for the illusion of “evening out” to be created. The universe doesn’t give a shit about such matters. I’m just glad it’s not us again. Derby were the third worst team in terms of process in 2019/20, but variance loved them. Hence the slightly deluded DCFC Twitter lovefest about a late playoff charge. This season they are the worse team process-wise and variance doesn't care in defence & has turned a bit nasty in attack. Great fun to watch. Out of curiosity, what do you mean by “process” mate? Where are Stoke currently in that measurement?
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Post by FullerMagic on Nov 29, 2020 11:34:54 GMT
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 11:45:37 GMT
Post by FullerMagic on Nov 29, 2020 11:45:37 GMT
If that's right, the Expected Goals 'process' league table is currently:
Brentford Blackburn ------------ Boro Swansea Bournemouth Norwich ------------ Cardiff Watford Millwall Stoke Huddersfield Forest Reading Bristol C Birmingham Barnsley QPR Rotherham Preston Wycombe ------------ Coventry Derby Sheff Wed
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 12:10:24 GMT
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Post by DentySCFC on Nov 29, 2020 12:10:24 GMT
If that's right, the Expected Goals 'process' league table is currently: Brentford Blackburn ------------ Boro Swansea Bournemouth Norwich ------------ Cardiff Watford Millwall Stoke Huddersfield Forest Reading Bristol C Birmingham Barnsley QPR Rotherham Preston Wycombe ------------ Coventry Derby Sheff Wed Luton not even in the table, god willing?
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Post by FullerMagic on Nov 29, 2020 12:33:15 GMT
If that's right, the Expected Goals 'process' league table is currently: Brentford Blackburn ------------ Boro Swansea Bournemouth Norwich ------------ Cardiff Watford Millwall Stoke Huddersfield Forest Reading Bristol C Birmingham Barnsley QPR Rotherham Preston Wycombe ------------ Coventry Derby Sheff Wed Luton not even in the table, god willing? Haha - they wouldn't be missed would they? They should be between QPR and Rotherham in 18th!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2020 12:52:53 GMT
Derby were the third worst team in terms of process in 2019/20, but variance loved them. Hence the slightly deluded DCFC Twitter lovefest about a late playoff charge. This season they are the worse team process-wise and variance doesn't care in defence & has turned a bit nasty in attack. Great fun to watch. Out of curiosity, what do you mean by “process” mate? Where are Stoke currently in that measurement? Ye in relation to football I think "process" means the EG numbers. Another interesting way you could judge variance in football over short-medium term samples, and one that I don't believe anybody ever focuses on or thinks about, is the average form of the opponents that a team faces. Confidence is massive and it seems to me totally possible that, if you were to tot up the numbers for where an opponent is in the form table when your team faces them, and then work out an average over the season, there might be some big deviations in those figures. Come the end of the season, I bet there would be a fairly startling gap between the luckiest and unluckiest teams in that regard. Just pulling the figures out of my arsehole, maybe the luckiest team ends up facing opponents averaging about 13th-14th in the form table, whereas the unluckiest team faces an average of 11th-10th. That doesn't sound like much but it is if you think about it. And who knows, maybe it would be more extreme than that? If I had the time to crunch those numbers I'd do it because I reckon it would be an eye opener.
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Post by mattyd2 on Nov 29, 2020 12:57:15 GMT
If that's right, the Expected Goals 'process' league table is currently: Brentford Blackburn ------------ Boro Swansea Bournemouth Norwich ------------ Cardiff Watford Millwall Stoke Huddersfield Forest Reading Bristol C Birmingham Barnsley QPR Rotherham Preston Wycombe ------------ Coventry Derby Sheff Wed Luton not even in the table, god willing? Going into administration and being wound up...God Willing..
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Post by PotterLog on Nov 29, 2020 13:25:50 GMT
Out of curiosity, what do you mean by “process” mate? Where are Stoke currently in that measurement? Ye in relation to football I think "process" means the EG numbers. Another interesting way you could judge variance in football over short-medium term samples, and one that I don't believe anybody ever focuses on or thinks about, is the average form of the opponents that a team faces. Confidence is massive and it seems to me totally possible that, if you were to tot up the numbers for where an opponent is in the form table when your team faces them, and then work out an average over the season, there might be some big deviations in those figures. Come the end of the season, I bet there would be a fairly startling gap between the luckiest and unluckiest teams in that regard. Just pulling the figures out of my arsehole, maybe the luckiest team ends up facing opponents averaging about 13th-14th in the form table, whereas the unluckiest team faces an average of 11th-10th. That doesn't sound like much but it is if you think about it. And who knows, maybe it would be more extreme than that? If I had the time to crunch those numbers I'd do it because I reckon it would be an eye opener. Very interesting point but you’d have to think carefully about the best way to assess the form of the sides a team is facing - at what point does form turn? A team that lost four but then won the last two could well be high on confidence and “in form” in the sense that something has clicked and they’ve turned a corner, however they would show up as a team in relatively poor form over six games. Also there’s home and away form, there are potentially huge variations there, depending on the side.
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 13:26:55 GMT
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Post by Goonie on Nov 29, 2020 13:26:55 GMT
In other news......Burnley look like us in our relegation season
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Post by Cast no shadow on Nov 29, 2020 13:33:15 GMT
Sod all this xg off.
Although it's great to see Derby struggling, I won't enjoy it until they're relegated. Plenty of poor teams in this league, couple of wins and they're out of drop zone. Be no surprise if their winless run will end vs Stoke City charity foundation.
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 13:42:13 GMT
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Goonie likes this
Post by maninasuitcase on Nov 29, 2020 13:42:13 GMT
Forest doing their best to keep their neighbours company in tier 3. 😄😄👍👍
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Derby
Nov 29, 2020 14:05:06 GMT
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Post by meirman61 on Nov 29, 2020 14:05:06 GMT
In 2 weeks they'll get an early visit from santa in the form of Charity SCFC1863 where Rooney and Wankhorn will get their customery goals against us and I don't think they are even playing at the moment
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Post by tachyon on Nov 29, 2020 15:09:45 GMT
Ye in relation to football I think "process" means the EG numbers. Another interesting way you could judge variance in football over short-medium term samples, and one that I don't believe anybody ever focuses on or thinks about, is the average form of the opponents that a team faces. Confidence is massive and it seems to me totally possible that, if you were to tot up the numbers for where an opponent is in the form table when your team faces them, and then work out an average over the season, there might be some big deviations in those figures. Come the end of the season, I bet there would be a fairly startling gap between the luckiest and unluckiest teams in that regard. Just pulling the figures out of my arsehole, maybe the luckiest team ends up facing opponents averaging about 13th-14th in the form table, whereas the unluckiest team faces an average of 11th-10th. That doesn't sound like much but it is if you think about it. And who knows, maybe it would be more extreme than that? If I had the time to crunch those numbers I'd do it because I reckon it would be an eye opener. Very interesting point but you’d have to think carefully about the best way to assess the form of the sides a team is facing - at what point does form turn? A team that lost four but then won the last two could well be high on confidence and “in form” in the sense that something has clicked and they’ve turned a corner, however they would show up as a team in relatively poor form over six games. Also there’s home and away form, there are potentially huge variations there, depending on the side. Some takeaways from building these models. Six game form has lots of statistical noise, home or away form, ditto. So use these sample sizes as descriptive of a team, rather than predictive. More is better, so rate sides over the underlying performance (process) in at least the last 40+ games, weighted for recency. Don't expect teams to finish where they deserve, even after a 46 game season. Here's the range of finishing positions possible based on the individual performance metrics (xG) recorded in all 552 games last season. You have to be pretty good in this league (like Leeds good) to virtually guarantee a top two finish.
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