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Post by AlbertTatlock on Jul 15, 2020 21:52:05 GMT
Hopefully their play-off spot will be secured (and our safety as well) and they won't want to pick up any injuries. I'm still very nervous of our position and not for 1 minute do I think we're safe yet so just covering all the angles. Gouranga.  |
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Post by stokeykez on Jul 15, 2020 22:40:22 GMT
Looking at their managers post match comments he is talking about the players being tired following the huge amounts of quick games they have.
He must have his eye on play off team selection and how to keep his squad fresh for a further 3 games.
He may perceive us as safe and rest a few
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jul 15, 2020 22:42:14 GMT
They haven’t made the play offs yet have they🤔
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2020 22:50:02 GMT
They haven’t made the play offs yet have they🤔 One more point |
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Jul 15, 2020 22:50:30 GMT
They haven’t made the play offs yet have they🤔 One more point Barnsley away next |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2020 22:51:53 GMT
One more point barring a huge GD swing that is. |
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Post by Vadiation_Ribe on Jul 15, 2020 22:59:01 GMT
The odds are long, but the worst-case scenario going into the last game would be (swap Hull for Luton given they play each other):  |
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Post by The battheader chronicles on Jul 15, 2020 23:11:04 GMT
The odds are long, but the worst-case scenario going into the last game would be (swap Hull for Luton given they play each other): Giving me a heart attack that |
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Post by spiderpuss on Jul 15, 2020 23:18:23 GMT
All depends on the Barnsley game, which I expect them to win comfortably. So they may play a weakened team. We will know if we are safe by then, so it's all academic right now.
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Post by mrcoke on Jul 15, 2020 23:20:45 GMT
Assuming we are safe for the last match I hope MON gives some youngsters a run out.
Regarding Forest, I did an analysis a year or so ago of which teams in the play-off positions were most likely to win the play-offs. I found that the team that finished 6th rarely won the play-offs, but it has happened. Between 3rd, 4th, and 5th placed teams, it was pretty even who won promotion. Maybe the team that finishes 3rd is often tired from trying to secure automatic promotion right up to the end of the regular season?
What was noticeable was that the team that wins the play-offs, often loses one their last matches of the regular season. Whether that is just as it happens and the loss gives them a wake up call to go on and win the play-offs, or whether it is because, having secured a play-off place they rest some of their best players, I don't know.
For example: Last season Villa finished 5th and won the play-offs. They did not win either of their last 2 games. I can't say whether or not Villa were resting players those last 2 games.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 15, 2020 23:21:04 GMT
All depends on the Barnsley game, which I expect them to win comfortably. So they may play a weakened team. We will know if we are safe by then, so it's all academic right now. Barnsley aren't conceding to be fair. 5 clean sheets in 7 |
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Post by jeycov on Jul 16, 2020 5:36:41 GMT
Hopefully their play-off spot will be secured (and our safety as well) and they won't want to pick up any injuries. I'm still very nervous of our position and not for 1 minute do I think we're safe yet so just covering all the angles. Gouranga. Every player should be playing to secure a place for the play off games. As 16 players can be used some will see this as a chance to secure a place for their game(s) We should be playing as if we need a positive result too, whether that be points or to protect our goal difference without risking any injuries ( aka Powell and Campbell last night) They also play on Sunday and then v us on Wednesday Very unfair situation for them imo |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2020 5:56:36 GMT
We are definitely not safe. A win last night would have guaranteed it.
We need one more point at least but may need another two depending on results. Can't believe the amount of people that are so relaxed about it.
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Post by cousindupree on Jul 16, 2020 6:31:37 GMT
I think they will it's been an intense schedule and there will be a huge prize for Forest. I think the final is Aug 4th so games will continue to come thick and fast. They will need some players to be fresh.
Having said that we are more than capable of getting a draw.
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Post by lawrieleslie on Jul 16, 2020 6:34:33 GMT
Leeds vs Barnsley tonight and Hull vs Luton on satdee are key results unless we get the point vs Brentford.
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Post by Chewbacca the Wookie on Jul 16, 2020 6:46:26 GMT
I don’t think we can forget the fact that Wigan have been deducted 12 points.
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Post by heworksardtho on Jul 16, 2020 6:46:42 GMT
We are definitely not safe. A win last night would have guaranteed it. We need one more point at least but may need another two depending on results. Can't believe the amount of people that are so relaxed about it. Safe as houses mate |
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Post by scfc75 on Jul 16, 2020 7:02:49 GMT
We’re obviously not mathematically safe. However, if you fed the combination of results into an accumulator necessary for us to be relegated, the odds would be very long. Now I’m not saying it’s impossible for us to go down, but I personally think we’re safe already. The odds of us going down are way longer than any team below us. The various models floating around also have us only going down in less than 1 out of 100 simulations.
I think any of the teams below us would swap our points total and run in for theirs. We’re in the best position - points on the board are better than potential points, especially with 2 games to go.
Panic ye not.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2020 7:15:46 GMT
The bigger worries for me are Charlton away at a partying Leeds on the last day, Huddersfield away to Millwall, who may have nothing to play for and Birmingham playing a Derby team with nothing to play for.
A Hull - Luton draw on Saturday would be most welcome.
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Post by surreystokie on Jul 16, 2020 7:16:10 GMT
This weekend is crucial. If Luton v Hull City is a draw, then we retain our Championship place. And we will be first off before others start.
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Post by Staffsoatcake on Jul 16, 2020 7:22:45 GMT
They won't want to finish 6th.
That would put them up against WBA or Brentford. (or even Leeds, if they implode) )
They will be trying their hardest to avoid that.
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Post by Staffsoatcake on Jul 16, 2020 7:25:52 GMT
I don’t think we can forget the fact that Wigan have been deducted 12 points. Which means nowt, if they are 13 points in front, after 46 games. |
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Post by Chewbacca the Wookie on Jul 16, 2020 7:28:32 GMT
I don’t think we can forget the fact that Wigan have been deducted 12 points. Which means nowt, if they are 13 or more points in front, after 46 games. My mistake I need to go back to School I thought they were only 5 in front of us. |
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Jul 16, 2020 7:45:09 GMT
The bigger worries for me are Charlton away at a partying Leeds on the last day, Huddersfield away to Millwall, who may have nothing to play for and Birmingham playing a Derby team with nothing to play for. A Hull - Luton draw on Saturday would be most welcome. Agreed re the draw but really can’t see it happening as both teams have to go for it, a draw finishes them |
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Post by SydenhamStokie on Jul 16, 2020 8:19:09 GMT
I (think I) can come up with a set of results which would see us relegated if Luton draw with Hull:
16. Barnsley 3 wins 52
17. Wigan 2 wins giving them 63 points minus 12 51
18. Middlesbrough 1 draw 51
19. Birmingham 1 draw 51
20. Huddersfield 1 win 51
21. Charlton 0-1 v Wigan 1-0 v Leeds GD -11 50
22. Stoke 2 0-1 defeats GD -12 50
23. Luton 1-1 v Hull, 1 win 49
24. Hull 1-1 v Luton, 1 win 49
However, I am more likely to win the lottery than this happening, and I never buy a ticket.
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Post by Robo10 on Jul 16, 2020 8:26:59 GMT
Barnsley will not be beating Leeds, Forest and Brentford - have you not seen them play!
I think Charlton will go personally - Bowyer looked bereft last night after that equaliser
Wigan will beat them comfortably, and Leeds will want to go up in style, and Charlton are woeful.
Brum hammered them stats wise last night (25 shots) but are dogshite, imagine Leeds (or Wigan for that matter!) having 25 shots at goal....
I could see Luton beating Hull mind and getting safe. The Jones/Messiah story will be funny
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Post by Northy on Jul 16, 2020 8:28:34 GMT
The odds are long, but the worst-case scenario going into the last game would be (swap Hull for Luton given they play each other): Giving me a heart attack that Leeds v Barnsley Tonight should ease those feelings Huddersfield v WBA on Friday as well The table may look different by the time we play Brentford |
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Post by tachyon on Jul 16, 2020 8:42:26 GMT
We’re obviously not mathematically safe. However, if you fed the combination of results into an accumulator necessary for us to be relegated, the odds would be very long. Now I’m not saying it’s impossible for us to go down, but I personally think we’re safe already. The odds of us going down are way longer than any team below us. The various models floating around also have us only going down in less than 1 out of 100 simulations. I think any of the teams below us would swap our points total and run in for theirs. We’re in the best position - points on the board are better than potential points, especially with 2 games to go. Panic ye not. I'm seeing around one relegation every 1,000 simulations. Attachment Deleted |
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Post by scfc75 on Jul 16, 2020 8:48:45 GMT
Charlton, Huddersfield, Hull and Barnsley - as a minimum - will all finish below us. Happy for this to be bookmarked and to be dragged back up if I’m wrong 🙂
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Post by nottsover60 on Jul 16, 2020 10:05:14 GMT
I don’t think we can forget the fact that Wigan have been deducted 12 points. As it stands they are out of the relegation places even with a 12 point deduction and the form team going into the last two matches so I think we can. Wouldn't be surprised to see them above us even if the points are docked. |
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