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Post by Northy on Apr 7, 2020 9:04:59 GMT
Quite a few doctors from around the world were pushing it a few weeks ago as well, maybe he's pushing it as it helps people as well. I don't think he gives a fuck about anyone else bar himself so I doubt it. well I doubt that you and sheik doubt it
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Post by Mr_DaftBurger on Apr 7, 2020 9:11:01 GMT
I don't think he gives a fuck about anyone else bar himself so I doubt it. His ramblings last night about talking to Johnson's doctors and getting experimental medicine's directly over to him were proof, even though none was needed, that Trump is just a full on fucking lunatic. He can see his Presidency slipping away, with every passing day, returning to his resort and hotel business in tatters! 🤠🤞
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Post by bathstoke on Apr 7, 2020 9:13:06 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 7, 2020 9:16:03 GMT
I don't think he gives a fuck about anyone else bar himself so I doubt it. well I doubt that you and sheik doubt it How can anyone not think it? It's clear in everything he does. He's fucking vile.
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Post by adri2008 on Apr 7, 2020 9:17:02 GMT
His ramblings last night about talking to Johnson's doctors and getting experimental medicine's directly over to him were proof, even though none was needed, that Trump is just a full on fucking lunatic. He can see his Presidency slipping away, with every passing day, returning to his resort and hotel business in tatters! 🤠🤞 He'll most likely get a second term I'm afraid - they've set a highish death count prediction specifically so he can claim the credit when they undershoot it. His core support seem to turn a blind eye (or worse agree with him) with his ridiculously childish antics on Twitter. He might be in trouble if a second wave of the virus hits in the autumn but Biden is a weak alternative so he might get away with it.
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Post by Mr_DaftBurger on Apr 7, 2020 9:21:20 GMT
He can see his Presidency slipping away, with every passing day, returning to his resort and hotel business in tatters! 🤠🤞 He'll most likely get a second term I'm afraid - they've set a highish death count prediction specifically so he can claim the credit when they undershoot it. His core support seem to turn a blind eye (or worse agree with him) with his ridiculously childish antics on Twitter. He might be in trouble if a second wave of the virus hits in the autumn but Biden is a weak alternative so he might get away with it. Same problem as last time!
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Apr 7, 2020 9:26:51 GMT
The Imperial Suppression strategy suggests 18 months worth of measures or however long it takes to get a vaccine/long term management strategy. Importantly that is NOT 18 months of continuous lockdown, it’s an initial lockdown for maximum a few months followed by a scaling back of measures but maintenance of social distancing where possible and in certain scenarios. Then in the event of a an outbreak of detection of cases, we adopt a South Korea like system to try and contain local outbreaks before they reach the level required for a nationwide lockdown again. So intensive testing, contact tracing and all that stuff. The exit strategy is pretty clear if they follow those suggestions, endure and ensure the spike is over and then be hyper vigilant until a vaccine is developed. The exit strategy is the vaccine, there is no other way. ESOF. Previous respiratory pandemics such as Spanish Flu (1920's) or 'Hong Kong Flu' (1960's) which were particularly virulent and lethal appeared to blow themselves out after a period of time. Why would Covid 19 not do the same over a period of say 2-3 years? Well it technically would, there’s nothing necessarily special about it in viral terms. But it’s important to understand the Spanish Flu was completely exacerbated by the unsanitary conditions of the time, most died from acute bacterial infection ON TOP of the virus and very poor understanding of viral mechanics. The H1N1 (same strain) that broke out in 2009 infected more people (which is a mind boggling stat) than the Spanish Flu but caused a fraction of the deaths before returning to seasonality. Hong Kong flu killed a million or so in Asia but had a low fatality rate of only 0.5% compared to Spanish Flu as we’d got better at dealing with infections, people already had some immunity to flu strains (not perfect immunity but enough to reduce disease), we had antibiotics to reduce superinfections and by the time it reached the West, schools were not in session which massively reduced to spread, same with H1N1 in 2009 and the fact it was Summer. The simple answer to the big effort appears to be COVID causes a much more serious clinical disease than Flu. Most people in any serious of even moderate condition need ventilation at some point where as this only happens if someone with flu goes into severe respiratory failure which now only tends to happen if you get unsanitary conditions and infection on top. Most flu infections last 5 days or so with severe symptoms and resolve one way or the other after that time, COVID appears to last much longer so you need the management for longer too, further making it more difficult. So letting it run wild for 2 or 3 years would likely kill millions as we simply can’t make that many ventilators and care systems lack the capacity to run as many as we’d need. When you consider COVID has killed 80,000 people with the world in a global shutdown, in just a month or so of Pandemic status, and Hong Kong flu killed a million over 2 years or so without any shutdown, you can see the potential potency of COVID as a disease. The Spanish Flu is a bit of an outlier because of the poor management and unique social conditions of the time. COVID is also much more infectious according to R0 data, which means exponential infection and faster overloading of Intensive Care Units. Also important is that we have no idea how long immunity to this lasts, antibodies raised against flu are pretty strong, and only when the disease mutates are you at risk again. With Other Coronaviruses, the long term antibody response only lasts a year, so perfectly possible if it circulates over 2 or 3 years then you get it again and again, which would be difficult to manage. This is why there is speculation the vaccine may turn into an annual or seasonal thing, to keep topping up the antibody levels and protect those most at risk with a herd immunity (generate the usual way, with a vaccine.)
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Post by OldStokie on Apr 7, 2020 9:27:42 GMT
Edited and disposed of because ESOF has answered it better than I could.
OS.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 9:28:43 GMT
I'm sure he's donated his £500 weekly wage to the NHS, leave him alone......
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Post by crapslinger on Apr 7, 2020 9:46:14 GMT
The caring face of the far left, they are an absolute disgrace to humanity and this country. Wait till you hear what they've been saying about it down the Chinese Wet Markets... Not a chance if they open their mouths about what is really going on they get arrested.
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Post by crapslinger on Apr 7, 2020 9:56:47 GMT
Taken from London loves Business 02/03/2020, not my own work.
By LLB Reporter at 12:18 pm March 2, 2020 Business News, Coronavirus, World News
A Taiwanese scientist has claimed Chinese microbiologists probably created coronavirus in Wuhan, China.
Based on the virus unusual structure it is most likely “man made” and there is a theory coronavirus was somehow leaked or released from the Institute of Virology in Wuhan China, said Professor Fang Chi-tai from the National Taiwan University (NTU).
Professor Fang said China’s track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.
The Professor claims it was very possible that the Wuhan Chinese scientists created the deadly virus by simply adding four amino acids to an existing bat virus, which therefore makes it much easier to transmit to people.
Professor Fang added, “The mutations found in the novel coronavirus are unusual in an academic sense.
“It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product.
“From an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans.”
In February Chinese scientist announced the true cause of the spread of coronavirus, who broke cover and said the outbreak started in a science laboratory in Wuhan yards away from a wet market.
A scientist told how a sick bat attacked the researchers and bled on them and urinated on another, they were then forced to quarantine themselves for 14 days.
Biologists Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao published a pre-print entitled “The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.”
The report describes how “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.
“We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 metres from the seafood market.
“We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory.
“Our proposal provided an alternative origin of the coronavirus in addition to natural recombination and intermediate host.”
The scientists in Wuhan said, “In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Apr 7, 2020 9:59:08 GMT
estrangedsonoffaye - is there any evidence to suggest the warmer weather may slow the spread of the virus at all, or is it "business as usual"? Also, can you shed any light (in layman's terms) on why this virus (or viruses in general) have different impacts on people? How can some have mild symptoms, others be asymptomatic and some so badly affected it actually kills them? Makes no sense to me. Why does it attack some more than others? Is it just a lottery? It’s hard to say at this point, there is some evidence that Coronaviruses don’t readily circulate well in the warmer climates or out of winger seasonality but until we actually start getting data in about during those months it’s difficult to make any definitive claims about it. But it could well be beneficial, we’ll only know when it happens, diseases in pandemics don’t act as they do in seasonal outbreaks, so caution is advised by those investigating the behaviour of the virus in warmer locales. We don’t know, is probably the short answer. Asymptomatic cases are always present in disease outbreaks and they’re a truly weird thing. The fever and cough of COVID are symptoms caused by your immune system fighting the disease, all the virus actually does it reduce your ability to oxygenate. Again, we’re not certain, but most scientists believe asymptomatic cases for diseases to be caused by: - A low number of virus particles infect the body, meaning the virus has less initial starting capacity and the immune system recognises it, creates antibodies for it and deals with it before a clinical infection emerges. - A delayed response in the immune system, but a lag phase where the virus population isn’t high enough to cause respiratory symptoms. (The suggestion being an eventual case, but only after a period of being asymptomatic - The virus doesn’t actually take hold in a person seriously, and whilst there is technically an infection it’s quite mild and as such the immune response is quite calm and never results in fever or coughing. This is the hardest to define and prove as it could be caused by individual characteristics in a persons genes that make it difficult for the virus to cause respiratory failure. Scientists are more concerned with stopping the spread, but I daresay we’ll see lots of investigations into it in the next few years.
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Post by Gods on Apr 7, 2020 10:02:04 GMT
Mentioning the late great Economist JK Galbraith.
"There are 2 kinds of forecasters, those who don't know and those who don't know they don't know' !
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Post by ravey123 on Apr 7, 2020 10:02:05 GMT
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Post by PotteringThrough on Apr 7, 2020 10:06:23 GMT
He can see his Presidency slipping away, with every passing day, returning to his resort and hotel business in tatters! 🤠🤞 He'll most likely get a second term I'm afraid - they've set a highish death count prediction specifically so he can claim the credit when they undershoot it. His core support seem to turn a blind eye (or worse agree with him) with his ridiculously childish antics on Twitter. He might be in trouble if a second wave of the virus hits in the autumn but Biden is a weak alternative so he might get away with it. I think his campaign message will be about making China pay for 'what they've done'.
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Post by musik on Apr 7, 2020 10:09:08 GMT
Following the Swedish model now. Festivals etc banned here til 31st Dec. ALL schools still open. One main reason: otherwise the robbery and murder stats would rise, cause the suburban youths have nothing else to do then. Said on National tv, prime time. Leaving aside your comments about the shortage of thongs in Sweden, is your society truly that lawless that the "youths" have nothing better to do than rob or murder people? That is certainly not the image that we are sold here of a place like Sweden. No, "they" haven't, not according to some of the interviewed youths, a headmaster and the police. As always though, we should remember it's about a minority of them. The headmaster said, for some of them the school is their only safe place, and when they're at school we can sort of "control" them, we know where they are at least. Some youths are saying, we're restless and bored, what the fuck is there to do otherwise? The police are a living question mark. What could they do? The perpetrators always get a discount. I got the impression the headmaster meant closing the schools would be just as bad as the whole Corona crisis.
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Post by PotteringThrough on Apr 7, 2020 10:09:29 GMT
estrangedsonoffaye - is there any evidence to suggest the warmer weather may slow the spread of the virus at all, or is it "business as usual"? Also, can you shed any light (in layman's terms) on why this virus (or viruses in general) have different impacts on people? How can some have mild symptoms, others be asymptomatic and some so badly affected it actually kills them? Makes no sense to me. Why does it attack some more than others? Is it just a lottery? It’s hard to say at this point, there is some evidence that Coronaviruses don’t readily circulate well in the warmer climates or out of winger seasonality but until we actually start getting data in about during those months it’s difficult to make any definitive claims about it. But it could well be beneficial, we’ll only know when it happens, diseases in pandemics don’t act as they do in seasonal outbreaks, so caution is advised by those investigating the behaviour of the virus in warmer locales. We don’t know, is probably the short answer. Asymptomatic cases are always present in disease outbreaks and they’re a truly weird thing. The fever and cough of COVID are symptoms caused by your immune system fighting the disease, all the virus actually does it reduce your ability to oxygenate. Again, we’re not certain, but most scientists believe asymptomatic cases for diseases to be caused by: - A low number of virus particles infect the body, meaning the virus has less initial starting capacity and the immune system recognises it, creates antibodies for it and deals with it before a clinical infection emerges. - A delayed response in the immune system, but a lag phase where the virus population isn’t high enough to cause respiratory symptoms. (The suggestion being an eventual case, but only after a period of being asymptomatic - The virus doesn’t actually take hold in a person seriously, and whilst there is technically an infection it’s quite mild and as such the immune response is quite calm and never results in fever or coughing. This is the hardest to define and prove as it could be caused by individual characteristics in a persons genes that make it difficult for the virus to cause respiratory failure. Scientists are more concerned with stopping the spread, but I daresay we’ll see lots of investigations into it in the next few years. Should we try and kickstart global warming and cause a massive heatwave to get rid of the virus? I'm going out to the car now to start it up and get revving. With the price of fuel currently it's a no brainer. That'll show it!
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 10:10:54 GMT
estrangedsonoffaye - is there any evidence to suggest the warmer weather may slow the spread of the virus at all, or is it "business as usual"? Also, can you shed any light (in layman's terms) on why this virus (or viruses in general) have different impacts on people? How can some have mild symptoms, others be asymptomatic and some so badly affected it actually kills them? Makes no sense to me. Why does it attack some more than others? Is it just a lottery? It’s hard to say at this point, there is some evidence that Coronaviruses don’t readily circulate well in the warmer climates or out of winger seasonality but until we actually start getting data in about during those months it’s difficult to make any definitive claims about it. But it could well be beneficial, we’ll only know when it happens, diseases in pandemics don’t act as they do in seasonal outbreaks, so caution is advised by those investigating the behaviour of the virus in warmer locales. We don’t know, is probably the short answer. Asymptomatic cases are always present in disease outbreaks and they’re a truly weird thing. The fever and cough of COVID are symptoms caused by your immune system fighting the disease, all the virus actually does it reduce your ability to oxygenate. Again, we’re not certain, but most scientists believe asymptomatic cases for diseases to be caused by: - A low number of virus particles infect the body, meaning the virus has less initial starting capacity and the immune system recognises it, creates antibodies for it and deals with it before a clinical infection emerges. - A delayed response in the immune system, but a lag phase where the virus population isn’t high enough to cause respiratory symptoms. (The suggestion being an eventual case, but only after a period of being asymptomatic - The virus doesn’t actually take hold in a person seriously, and whilst there is technically an infection it’s quite mild and as such the immune response is quite calm and never results in fever or coughing. This is the hardest to define and prove as it could be caused by individual characteristics in a persons genes that make it difficult for the virus to cause respiratory failure. Scientists are more concerned with stopping the spread, but I daresay we’ll see lots of investigations into it in the next few years. Thanks mate.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Apr 7, 2020 10:14:52 GMT
So, it's over to Sky News again where they are discussing the in depth details of the zero point, the spread, the mutations, vaccines, worldwide lockdown and it's future social issues with CoV19, with the experts from the Oatcake fanzine, Huddy and Sheik .... It's bizarre that you have the head of nursing at a press conference giving instructions in black and white and some people still claim they don't understand. On the occasions when I've ventured out into the real world I'm impressed just how well people are adhering to the instructions whereas on here you'd think that not a soul was obeying the precise instructions from the medical profession, the scientific community and politicians. I don't think the instructions are 'black and white' and 'precise'. Taken from the government website: "We are advising those who are at increased risk of severe illness from coronavirus (COVID-19) to be particularly stringent in following social distancing measures. This group includes those who are: aged 70 or older (regardless of medical conditions)under 70 with an underlying health condition listed below (ie anyone instructed to get a flu jab as an adult each year on medical grounds):chronic (long-term) respiratory diseases, such as asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), emphysema or bronchitischronic heart disease, such as heart failurechronic kidney diseasechronic liver disease, such as hepatitischronic neurological conditions, such as Parkinson’s disease, motor neurone disease, multiple sclerosis (MS), a learning disability or cerebral palsydiabetesproblems with your spleen – for example, sickle cell disease or if you have had your spleen removeda weakened immune system as the result of conditions such as HIV and AIDS, or medicines such as steroid tablets or chemotherapybeing seriously overweight (a body mass index (BMI) of 40 or above)those who are pregnant" Now myself, my wife and my son all fit into the above category. What does 'particularly stringent' social distancing mean? What's the difference between ordinary social distancing and 'particularly stringent' social distancing? What do we have to do differently to those people who HAVEN'T been advised to be 'particularly stringent' about it? Cheers
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Post by spitthedog on Apr 7, 2020 10:14:57 GMT
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Post by OldStokie on Apr 7, 2020 10:17:48 GMT
Taken from London loves Business 02/03/2020, not my own work.
By LLB Reporter at 12:18 pm March 2, 2020 Business News, Coronavirus, World News
A Taiwanese scientist has claimed Chinese microbiologists probably created coronavirus in Wuhan, China.
Based on the virus unusual structure it is most likely “man made” and there is a theory coronavirus was somehow leaked or released from the Institute of Virology in Wuhan China, said Professor Fang Chi-tai from the National Taiwan University (NTU).
Professor Fang said China’s track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.
The Professor claims it was very possible that the Wuhan Chinese scientists created the deadly virus by simply adding four amino acids to an existing bat virus, which therefore makes it much easier to transmit to people.
Professor Fang added, “The mutations found in the novel coronavirus are unusual in an academic sense.
“It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product.
“From an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans.”
In February Chinese scientist announced the true cause of the spread of coronavirus, who broke cover and said the outbreak started in a science laboratory in Wuhan yards away from a wet market.
A scientist told how a sick bat attacked the researchers and bled on them and urinated on another, they were then forced to quarantine themselves for 14 days.
Biologists Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao published a pre-print entitled “The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.”
The report describes how “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.
“We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 metres from the seafood market.
“We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory.
“Our proposal provided an alternative origin of the coronavirus in addition to natural recombination and intermediate host.”
The scientists in Wuhan said, “In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.
I take all these non-proven theories with a large pich of salt. But even if it was the case as described, then it was an accidental leakage and not deliberate. I should point out that accidents can happen and most of us would have the fear of God in us if we ever got to know what the Yanks, the Russians, and we in the UK are messing about with behind securely locked doors. If ever some of the stuff they've got locked away in Porton Down ever gets out, then we can probably say goodbye to the human race. OS.
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Post by supersimonstainrod on Apr 7, 2020 10:25:43 GMT
ESOF. Previous respiratory pandemics such as Spanish Flu (1920's) or 'Hong Kong Flu' (1960's) which were particularly virulent and lethal appeared to blow themselves out after a period of time. Why would Covid 19 not do the same over a period of say 2-3 years? Well it technically would, there’s nothing necessarily special about it in viral terms. But it’s important to understand the Spanish Flu was completely exacerbated by the unsanitary conditions of the time, most died from acute bacterial infection ON TOP of the virus and very poor understanding of viral mechanics. The H1N1 (same strain) that broke out in 2009 infected more people (which is a mind boggling stat) than the Spanish Flu but caused a fraction of the deaths before returning to seasonality. Hong Kong flu killed a million or so in Asia but had a low fatality rate of only 0.5% compared to Spanish Flu as we’d got better at dealing with infections, people already had some immunity to flu strains (not perfect immunity but enough to reduce disease), we had antibiotics to reduce superinfections and by the time it reached the West, schools were not in session which massively reduced to spread, same with H1N1 in 2009 and the fact it was Summer. The simple answer to the big effort appears to be COVID causes a much more serious clinical disease than Flu. Most people in any serious of even moderate condition need ventilation at some point where as this only happens if someone with flu goes into severe respiratory failure which now only tends to happen if you get unsanitary conditions and infection on top. Most flu infections last 5 days or so with severe symptoms and resolve one way or the other after that time, COVID appears to last much longer so you need the management for longer too, further making it more difficult. So letting it run wild for 2 or 3 years would likely kill millions as we simply can’t make that many ventilators and care systems lack the capacity to run as many as we’d need. When you consider COVID has killed 80,000 people with the world in a global shutdown, in just a month or so of Pandemic status, and Hong Kong flu killed a million over 2 years or so without any shutdown, you can see the potential potency of COVID as a disease. The Spanish Flu is a bit of an outlier because of the poor management and unique social conditions of the time. COVID is also much more infectious according to R0 data, which means exponential infection and faster overloading of Intensive Care Units. Also important is that we have no idea how long immunity to this lasts, antibodies raised against flu are pretty strong, and only when the disease mutates are you at risk again. With Other Coronaviruses, the long term antibody response only lasts a year, so perfectly possible if it circulates over 2 or 3 years then you get it again and again, which would be difficult to manage. This is why there is speculation the vaccine may turn into an annual or seasonal thing, to keep topping up the antibody levels and protect those most at risk with a herd immunity (generate the usual way, with a vaccine.) Does this presage a future in which we need multiple vaccines for each potential mutated strain of covid19,with the WHO having to make a decision on which 'jab' to make available to the vulnerable sections of society based on projections of which strains are likelist to recrudesce each year?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 7, 2020 10:29:55 GMT
At the risk of being accused of being political this situation sums up our casual approach to this virus in the beginning...
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Post by miltonstokienew on Apr 7, 2020 10:37:02 GMT
Taken from London loves Business 02/03/2020, not my own work.
By LLB Reporter at 12:18 pm March 2, 2020 Business News, Coronavirus, World News
A Taiwanese scientist has claimed Chinese microbiologists probably created coronavirus in Wuhan, China.
Based on the virus unusual structure it is most likely “man made” and there is a theory coronavirus was somehow leaked or released from the Institute of Virology in Wuhan China, said Professor Fang Chi-tai from the National Taiwan University (NTU).
Professor Fang said China’s track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.
The Professor claims it was very possible that the Wuhan Chinese scientists created the deadly virus by simply adding four amino acids to an existing bat virus, which therefore makes it much easier to transmit to people.
Professor Fang added, “The mutations found in the novel coronavirus are unusual in an academic sense.
“It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product.
“From an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans.”
In February Chinese scientist announced the true cause of the spread of coronavirus, who broke cover and said the outbreak started in a science laboratory in Wuhan yards away from a wet market.
A scientist told how a sick bat attacked the researchers and bled on them and urinated on another, they were then forced to quarantine themselves for 14 days.
Biologists Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao published a pre-print entitled “The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.”
The report describes how “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.
“We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 metres from the seafood market.
“We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory.
“Our proposal provided an alternative origin of the coronavirus in addition to natural recombination and intermediate host.”
The scientists in Wuhan said, “In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.
You really didnt have to type that it wasnt your own work.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Apr 7, 2020 10:41:17 GMT
Well it technically would, there’s nothing necessarily special about it in viral terms. But it’s important to understand the Spanish Flu was completely exacerbated by the unsanitary conditions of the time, most died from acute bacterial infection ON TOP of the virus and very poor understanding of viral mechanics. The H1N1 (same strain) that broke out in 2009 infected more people (which is a mind boggling stat) than the Spanish Flu but caused a fraction of the deaths before returning to seasonality. Hong Kong flu killed a million or so in Asia but had a low fatality rate of only 0.5% compared to Spanish Flu as we’d got better at dealing with infections, people already had some immunity to flu strains (not perfect immunity but enough to reduce disease), we had antibiotics to reduce superinfections and by the time it reached the West, schools were not in session which massively reduced to spread, same with H1N1 in 2009 and the fact it was Summer. The simple answer to the big effort appears to be COVID causes a much more serious clinical disease than Flu. Most people in any serious of even moderate condition need ventilation at some point where as this only happens if someone with flu goes into severe respiratory failure which now only tends to happen if you get unsanitary conditions and infection on top. Most flu infections last 5 days or so with severe symptoms and resolve one way or the other after that time, COVID appears to last much longer so you need the management for longer too, further making it more difficult. So letting it run wild for 2 or 3 years would likely kill millions as we simply can’t make that many ventilators and care systems lack the capacity to run as many as we’d need. When you consider COVID has killed 80,000 people with the world in a global shutdown, in just a month or so of Pandemic status, and Hong Kong flu killed a million over 2 years or so without any shutdown, you can see the potential potency of COVID as a disease. The Spanish Flu is a bit of an outlier because of the poor management and unique social conditions of the time. COVID is also much more infectious according to R0 data, which means exponential infection and faster overloading of Intensive Care Units. Also important is that we have no idea how long immunity to this lasts, antibodies raised against flu are pretty strong, and only when the disease mutates are you at risk again. With Other Coronaviruses, the long term antibody response only lasts a year, so perfectly possible if it circulates over 2 or 3 years then you get it again and again, which would be difficult to manage. This is why there is speculation the vaccine may turn into an annual or seasonal thing, to keep topping up the antibody levels and protect those most at risk with a herd immunity (generate the usual way, with a vaccine.) Does this presage a future in which we need multiple vaccines for each potential mutated strain of covid19,with the WHO having to make a decision on which 'jab' to make available to the vulnerable sections of society based on projections of which strains are likelist to recrudesce each year? Yeah absolutely, we could well end up with a flu jab scenario where we have to preempt the antigenic drift (mutation) of the virus. But there is some evidence to suggest parts of it may be more stable than influenza, if we design a vaccine against those stable parts, it might be ok to use the same one as a booster year on year, rather than a slightly adjusted one each year.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Apr 7, 2020 10:42:45 GMT
Taken from London loves Business 02/03/2020, not my own work.
By LLB Reporter at 12:18 pm March 2, 2020 Business News, Coronavirus, World News
A Taiwanese scientist has claimed Chinese microbiologists probably created coronavirus in Wuhan, China.
Based on the virus unusual structure it is most likely “man made” and there is a theory coronavirus was somehow leaked or released from the Institute of Virology in Wuhan China, said Professor Fang Chi-tai from the National Taiwan University (NTU).
Professor Fang said China’s track record with safety standards and laboratory management has been questioned in the past.
The Professor claims it was very possible that the Wuhan Chinese scientists created the deadly virus by simply adding four amino acids to an existing bat virus, which therefore makes it much easier to transmit to people.
Professor Fang added, “The mutations found in the novel coronavirus are unusual in an academic sense.
“It is indeed possible that it is a man-made product.
“From an academic point of view, it is indeed possible that the amino acids were added to COVID-19 in the lab by humans.”
In February Chinese scientist announced the true cause of the spread of coronavirus, who broke cover and said the outbreak started in a science laboratory in Wuhan yards away from a wet market.
A scientist told how a sick bat attacked the researchers and bled on them and urinated on another, they were then forced to quarantine themselves for 14 days.
Biologists Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao published a pre-print entitled “The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.”
The report describes how “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.
“We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 metres from the seafood market.
“We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory.
“Our proposal provided an alternative origin of the coronavirus in addition to natural recombination and intermediate host.”
The scientists in Wuhan said, “In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus.
I take all these non-proven theories with a large pich of salt. But even if it was the case as described, then it was an accidental leakage and not deliberate. I should point out that accidents can happen and most of us would have the fear of God in us if we ever got to know what the Yanks, the Russians, and we in the UK are messing about with behind securely locked doors. If ever some of the stuff they've got locked away in Porton Down ever gets out, then we can probably say goodbye to the human race. OS. And it coming from Taiwan is hardly unbiased as well. Although as a theory it would make sense and it does seem like if it did happen, as you say it was an accident.
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Post by partickpotter on Apr 7, 2020 10:43:36 GMT
At the risk of being accused of being political this situation sums up our casual approach to this virus in the beginning... You’re more tedious than political. Take a look around you and you’ll see countries all round the world struggling with this situation including, as mentioned earlier, the parts of the Uk which are not governed by the Tories.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Apr 7, 2020 10:43:44 GMT
ESOF. Previous respiratory pandemics such as Spanish Flu (1920's) or 'Hong Kong Flu' (1960's) which were particularly virulent and lethal appeared to blow themselves out after a period of time. Why would Covid 19 not do the same over a period of say 2-3 years? Well it technically would, there’s nothing necessarily special about it in viral terms. But it’s important to understand the Spanish Flu was completely exacerbated by the unsanitary conditions of the time, most died from acute bacterial infection ON TOP of the virus and very poor understanding of viral mechanics. The H1N1 (same strain) that broke out in 2009 infected more people (which is a mind boggling stat) than the Spanish Flu but caused a fraction of the deaths before returning to seasonality. Hong Kong flu killed a million or so in Asia but had a low fatality rate of only 0.5% compared to Spanish Flu as we’d got better at dealing with infections, people already had some immunity to flu strains (not perfect immunity but enough to reduce disease), we had antibiotics to reduce superinfections and by the time it reached the West, schools were not in session which massively reduced to spread, same with H1N1 in 2009 and the fact it was Summer. The simple answer to the big effort appears to be COVID causes a much more serious clinical disease than Flu. Most people in any serious of even moderate condition need ventilation at some point where as this only happens if someone with flu goes into severe respiratory failure which now only tends to happen if you get unsanitary conditions and infection on top. Most flu infections last 5 days or so with severe symptoms and resolve one way or the other after that time, COVID appears to last much longer so you need the management for longer too, further making it more difficult. So letting it run wild for 2 or 3 years would likely kill millions as we simply can’t make that many ventilators and care systems lack the capacity to run as many as we’d need. When you consider COVID has killed 80,000 people with the world in a global shutdown, in just a month or so of Pandemic status, and Hong Kong flu killed a million over 2 years or so without any shutdown, you can see the potential potency of COVID as a disease. The Spanish Flu is a bit of an outlier because of the poor management and unique social conditions of the time. COVID is also much more infectious according to R0 data, which means exponential infection and faster overloading of Intensive Care Units. Also important is that we have no idea how long immunity to this lasts, antibodies raised against flu are pretty strong, and only when the disease mutates are you at risk again. With Other Coronaviruses, the long term antibody response only lasts a year, so perfectly possible if it circulates over 2 or 3 years then you get it again and again, which would be difficult to manage. This is why there is speculation the vaccine may turn into an annual or seasonal thing, to keep topping up the antibody levels and protect those most at risk with a herd immunity (generate the usual way, with a vaccine.) Thankyou for the detailed response. If correct that presents rather a depressing picture of life on earth for the next few years. The developed world will have to get used to undertaking everything at a distance of two metres for the forseeable future (and abandoning anything that cannot) while awaiting innoculation - at the same time developing countries will presumably be ravaged as the disease takes hold in cramped and insanitary living conditions where vaccination can only ever be a pipe dream.
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Post by yeokel on Apr 7, 2020 10:43:45 GMT
Leaving aside your comments about the shortage of thongs in Sweden, is your society truly that lawless that the "youths" have nothing better to do than rob or murder people? That is certainly not the image that we are sold here of a place like Sweden. No, "they" haven't, not according to some of the interviewed youths, a headmaster and the police. As always though, we should remember it's about a minority of them. The headmaster said, for some of them the school is their only safe place, and when they're at school we can sort of "control" them, we know where they are at least. Some youths are saying, we're restless and bored, what the fuck is there to do otherwise? The police are a living question mark. What could they do? The perpetrators always get a discount. I got the impression the headmaster meant closing the schools would be just as bad as the whole Corona crisis. As I said earlier, that is not quite the picture of Sweden that we have over here. "Youths" get bored - that's a fact of life and, over here, there can be bits of petty crime or vandalism but (in my experience) things don't usually get much worse than that. Yoofs do carry out crime that's true, but those ones would be doing that anyway irrespective of any 'lockdown' or the schools being shut. Why are they so lawless do you think? Are the police too lenient? Are the courts too lenient? Are they really lacking so much imagination that crime is "the only thing to do"? Can they not just sit at home, play computer games and become slightly obese like many of their British counterparts?
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Apr 7, 2020 10:44:52 GMT
Well it technically would, there’s nothing necessarily special about it in viral terms. But it’s important to understand the Spanish Flu was completely exacerbated by the unsanitary conditions of the time, most died from acute bacterial infection ON TOP of the virus and very poor understanding of viral mechanics. The H1N1 (same strain) that broke out in 2009 infected more people (which is a mind boggling stat) than the Spanish Flu but caused a fraction of the deaths before returning to seasonality. Hong Kong flu killed a million or so in Asia but had a low fatality rate of only 0.5% compared to Spanish Flu as we’d got better at dealing with infections, people already had some immunity to flu strains (not perfect immunity but enough to reduce disease), we had antibiotics to reduce superinfections and by the time it reached the West, schools were not in session which massively reduced to spread, same with H1N1 in 2009 and the fact it was Summer. The simple answer to the big effort appears to be COVID causes a much more serious clinical disease than Flu. Most people in any serious of even moderate condition need ventilation at some point where as this only happens if someone with flu goes into severe respiratory failure which now only tends to happen if you get unsanitary conditions and infection on top. Most flu infections last 5 days or so with severe symptoms and resolve one way or the other after that time, COVID appears to last much longer so you need the management for longer too, further making it more difficult. So letting it run wild for 2 or 3 years would likely kill millions as we simply can’t make that many ventilators and care systems lack the capacity to run as many as we’d need. When you consider COVID has killed 80,000 people with the world in a global shutdown, in just a month or so of Pandemic status, and Hong Kong flu killed a million over 2 years or so without any shutdown, you can see the potential potency of COVID as a disease. The Spanish Flu is a bit of an outlier because of the poor management and unique social conditions of the time. COVID is also much more infectious according to R0 data, which means exponential infection and faster overloading of Intensive Care Units. Also important is that we have no idea how long immunity to this lasts, antibodies raised against flu are pretty strong, and only when the disease mutates are you at risk again. With Other Coronaviruses, the long term antibody response only lasts a year, so perfectly possible if it circulates over 2 or 3 years then you get it again and again, which would be difficult to manage. This is why there is speculation the vaccine may turn into an annual or seasonal thing, to keep topping up the antibody levels and protect those most at risk with a herd immunity (generate the usual way, with a vaccine.) Does this presage a future in which we need multiple vaccines for each potential mutated strain of covid19,with the WHO having to make a decision on which 'jab' to make available to the vulnerable sections of society based on projections of which strains are likelist to recrudesce each year? Which is pretty much what they do for flu now.
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