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Post by Paul Spencer on Dec 30, 2020 12:24:05 GMT
We know its lower in efficacy. I think people are getting too bogged down in the headline percentage figure though. The most important aspect for me, is that it stops people getting seriously ill or dying. A vaccine could be 50% effective in stopping people from catching the virus, but 99% effective in stopping people who actually contract it from suffering seriously and ending up in hospital and even dying. Surely the whole point in what we're trying to achieve is to relieve the strain on the NHS and ultimately save lives. This. At the end of the day we don't have enough of the Pfizer / Moderna vaccine so we have to do what we can with the tools we have available. We're in unprecedented times and we can't have every answer to every question. There will be a point when the Pfizer and others that are 90+% are widely available for everyone but until then. That's an honest answer. We've just had Hancock on the telly telling us that the vaccine is going to make us all safe by the Spring, only five minutes after the lead researcher at Oxford was telling everybody who has the vaccine to continue to meticulously protect themselves until we build up more data on the actual effectiveness of the vaccine. Two very different narratives.
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Post by adri2008 on Dec 30, 2020 12:30:14 GMT
We know its lower in efficacy. I think people are getting too bogged down in the headline percentage figure though. The most important aspect for me, is that it stops people getting seriously ill or dying.
A vaccine could be 50% effective in stopping people from catching the virus, but 99% effective in stopping people who actually contract it from suffering seriously and ending up in hospital and even dying. Surely the whole point in what we're trying to achieve is to relieve the strain on the NHS and ultimately save lives. The most important thing, is that it stops people who are in at risk groups and the elderly from getting seriously ill or dying but when Fergus Walsh asked where the data was to demonstrate that this was the case, a very vague response was given. And yes you're right, a vaccine could be 50% effective in stopping people from catching the virus but 99% effective in stopping people from becoming seriously ill and that would be fantastic ... so let's see the evidence for it, it's not a lot to ask. I'm assuming there isn't any evidence currently or that it's patchy else they'd be making a song and dance about it. The government is rolling it out in the hope it does prove effective enough to suppress the virus without really having the data to back it up in the age groups that matter.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Dec 30, 2020 12:40:11 GMT
Just an aside. Am I dreaming that last winter (and the winter before) we saw ambulances waiting outside unable to unload patients into corridors because there wasn't enough beds available? I saw on the news last night that the NHS had asked ex-NHS staff to volunteer to help get us through this log jam. 40,000 offered to help. 10,000 were deemed 'not suitable', and of the 30,000 that were only 5,000 had been recruited. What a bloody shambles. OS. It seems to happen every winter doesn’t it?
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Post by Paul Spencer on Dec 30, 2020 13:18:00 GMT
Just an aside. Am I dreaming that last winter (and the winter before) we saw ambulances waiting outside unable to unload patients into corridors because there wasn't enough beds available? I saw on the news last night that the NHS had asked ex-NHS staff to volunteer to help get us through this log jam. 40,000 offered to help. 10,000 were deemed 'not suitable', and of the 30,000 that were only 5,000 had been recruited. What a bloody shambles. OS. It seems to happen every winter doesn’t it?
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Post by werrington on Dec 30, 2020 13:19:03 GMT
It seems to happen every winter doesn’t it? I’ve been banging this since the very start mate
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Post by cobhamstokey on Dec 30, 2020 13:27:21 GMT
One good thing about this virus it has sorted the wheat from the chaff. Given the weak the opportunity to live in perpetual fear, leaving the rest to value and embrace life. Nothing like a natural disaster to fully understand yourself. By the "weak" I assume you mean those who recognise the need for restrictions in order to prevent the vulnerable from dying. There are some people who obey the rules out of fear but the vast majority are doing out out of a sense of civic duty. The anti lockdowners keep banging on about project fear but I literally don't know anyone who is afraid of government messaging about covid or anything else for that matter. Anyone scared of Matt Hancock has a serious problem and needs help - and that's nothing to do with their attitude to covid restrictions. You are right in that it this has separated the wheat from the chaff but not in weak v strong terms. The real distinction is between those with an extreme individualistic outlook that see everything in terms of how it affects them and those with a sense of civic responsibility which appears to map very strongly to political beliefs. It's the people who have accepted the need for restrictions who have just accepted the situation for what it is who have embraced life and made the best of it. It's the anti lockdown brigade that have wasted their lives constantly whining and moaning about restrictions - that's not embracing life it's crushing it to death. In terms of weak v strong the front line workers who have put their lives on the line for others are what I call strong not those scared shit less by government messaging on covid as a permanent threat to their civil liberties. But each to their own. Well said and spot on. Bertie you’ve clearly not lost any one to Covid.
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Post by salopstick on Dec 30, 2020 13:29:33 GMT
I’ve been banging this since the very start mate And it’s been used to advantage for people to restrict liberty and make money at the expense of us
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Post by Gary Hackett on Dec 30, 2020 13:31:05 GMT
Just an aside. Am I dreaming that last winter (and the winter before) we saw ambulances waiting outside unable to unload patients into corridors because there wasn't enough beds available? I saw on the news last night that the NHS had asked ex-NHS staff to volunteer to help get us through this log jam. 40,000 offered to help. 10,000 were deemed 'not suitable', and of the 30,000 that were only 5,000 had been recruited. What a bloody shambles. OS. It seems to happen every winter doesn’t it? Yeah it does, so when you add in a pandemic into the mix you can see why they are fearing the worst. Better to plan for the worse when it's lives at stake surely, or do you just say 'ah fuck it it'll be alright'
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Post by noustie on Dec 30, 2020 13:34:50 GMT
Don't really understand the responses to this. The constant is the NHS can only treat what it has capacity to sort out. In a usual year when folk are doing normal stuff plus flu the capacity of the NHS is breached regularly and transferred to other counties/ cities. What that proves is that it is either underfunded, mismanaged or both as emergency measures shouldn't be needed so regularly or it is by definition no longer an emergency but rather normality. Now, despite being locked down throughout the year and various forms of restriction we're breaching capacity already without the implications of Christmas being recognised yet. If we just cracked on like normal the NHS would be more fucked than it already is in a usual year way beyond what it could cope with so I can't get my head around what folk are actually wanting? For me this isn't suggesting or agreeing that Covid is that big a deal relatively speaking - if this was a proper pandemic we'd be absolutely well and truly fucked. What each country's response shows is their ability to deal with it and the facilities they have at their disposal to do that - both of which point to massive failings in government strategy short, medium and long term where attention is being deflected from as much as possible.
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Post by Davef on Dec 30, 2020 13:49:56 GMT
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Post by Northy on Dec 30, 2020 13:58:45 GMT
From London to Yorkshire though ? And most winters we aren't not seeing cancer patients turned away, hip replacements and the like not being done are we ?
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 30, 2020 14:01:46 GMT
Just an aside. Am I dreaming that last winter (and the winter before) we saw ambulances waiting outside unable to unload patients into corridors because there wasn't enough beds available? I saw on the news last night that the NHS had asked ex-NHS staff to volunteer to help get us through this log jam. 40,000 offered to help. 10,000 were deemed 'not suitable', and of the 30,000 that were only 5,000 had been recruited. What a bloody shambles. OS. Yeah, there have been nasty scenes during bad flu seasons for years. Here's a story from back in 2016 "Hospital admissions hit record high as population ages". I'm still convinced that flu is going to get squished this year by all the masks and social distancing. It's just not as infectious as coronavirus so it simply won't be able to get many footholds. But our docs are still going to be in trouble just because of covid.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 30, 2020 14:08:05 GMT
From London to Yorkshire though ? And most winters we aren't not seeing cancer patients turned away, hip replacements and the like not being done are we ? As an idea of what a difference a lockdown makes you can look here at the number of patients in hospitals. Lockdown made it slow down and reverse a bit, taking a huge bite out of the number of beds we need. If things had kept growing at the rate they were in the week before lockdown & we just carried on without strict measures we would have seen something like 170k patients needing hospital beds today. The NHS has about 140k beds total. So if you really really didn't want some stricter control measures, then that's the world you'd choose to live in.
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Post by Northy on Dec 30, 2020 14:08:08 GMT
It seems to happen every winter doesn’t it? Were all the hospitals still treating normal stuff back then, cancer, hip replacements etc. we seem to be told on here that we've had to stop all those for a non pandemic There has been work in a lot of hospitals this year to make them more flexible to allow the amount of beds to be released to covid easier
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Post by Northy on Dec 30, 2020 14:11:05 GMT
From London to Yorkshire though ? And most winters we aren't not seeing cancer patients turned away, hip replacements and the like not being done are we ? As an idea of what a difference a lockdown makes you can look here at the number of patients in hospitals. Lockdown made it slow down and reverse a bit, taking a huge bite out of the number of beds we need. If things had kept growing at the rate they were in the week before lockdown & we just carried on without strict measures we would have seen something like 170k patients needing hospital beds today. The NHS has about 140k beds total. So if you really really didn't want some stricter control measures, then that's the world you'd choose to live in. yeh I know, Stoke has fallen quite a bit after going into Tier 3, I'd dread to think what it would be like if we just let it rip. It's what I'm saying, people keep saying it's normal and everyone is lying.
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Post by Northy on Dec 30, 2020 14:23:00 GMT
Just imagine if all those city workers weren't working from home, packing trains and buses from the outlying towns every morning and night like they would have normally, going to all the shops, cafe's and bars at lunchtime and in the evening, in the theatres and clubs, that chart would have still looked the same wouldn't it?
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Post by Gary Hackett on Dec 30, 2020 14:26:07 GMT
Just imagine if all those city workers weren't working from home, packing trains and buses from the outlying towns every morning and night like they would have normally, going to all the shops, cafe's and bars at lunchtime and in the evening, in the theatres and clubs, that chart would have still looked the same wouldn't it? It's no good knocking when there's nobody at home mate.
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Post by mtrstudent on Dec 30, 2020 14:43:45 GMT
We should all be really proud of our scientists and technicians btw.
They gave us so much more info about the new strain than any other country could possibly get, and now it looks like we're going to have more than enough vaccine for every Brit. The government was right to order more than needed in case there were fuckups, and we got lucky that our Oxford one seems to work alright.
It's not just the professors who pushed this particular vaccine, but we owe big thanks to the last decade+ of PhD students and postdocs who've laboured away in labs, often for far less pay than they'd get elsewhere, to lay each of the bricks in the foundation of our vaccine tech.
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Post by Davef on Dec 30, 2020 14:48:05 GMT
Just imagine if all those city workers weren't working from home, packing trains and buses from the outlying towns every morning and night like they would have normally, going to all the shops, cafe's and bars at lunchtime and in the evening, in the theatres and clubs, that chart would have still looked the same wouldn't it? Would it? ONS data shows that the huge increase in "cases" during November and December hasn't translated into increased mortality.
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Post by prestwichpotter on Dec 30, 2020 14:51:39 GMT
I’ve been banging this since the very start mate And it’s been used to advantage for people to restrict liberty and make money at the expense of us The free market in all it's glory. Jeff Bezos deserves every penny......
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Post by starkiller on Dec 30, 2020 14:51:49 GMT
Great news on the Oxford vaccine. Hundred million ordered and as cheap as chips and logistically it's a damned sight easier to get it out. If we can protect the elderly, most vulnerable, and front line workers then our NHS can get back to some sort of normality, which is the most worrying aspect at the moment and the main driver why the lockdowns are becoming stricter. Fingers crossed that by the end of March we could be over the worst and looking at getting the economy working again. OS. Why do we need a vaccine for an old strain now they've played the fear joker of a new strain? Clearly the script writers at SAGE didn't check for plot-holes before running with the Christmas scare tactics. I guess when so many lies are told in this narrative they inevitably contradict, as they have many times. Let's line up, get jabbed, and not ask any questions, eh? The BBC certainly don't.
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Post by werrington on Dec 30, 2020 15:00:38 GMT
From London to Yorkshire though ? And most winters we aren't not seeing cancer patients turned away, hip replacements and the like not being done are we ? Elective surgery ie hips and knees etc are cancelled every single winter in huge quantities to free up beds for winter pressures As are cancer treatments and even urgent surgery as there’s routinely no beds
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Post by FullerMagic on Dec 30, 2020 15:03:41 GMT
Tier 4 for Stoke...
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Dec 30, 2020 15:06:43 GMT
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Dec 30, 2020 15:09:43 GMT
I’ve been banging this since the very start mate And it’s been used to advantage for people to restrict liberty and make money at the expense of us And again, you voted for them. All that winning eh?
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Post by Gary Hackett on Dec 30, 2020 15:10:04 GMT
That data only goes up unto 18th Dec, cases in London didn't start to rocket until early december. Cases per 100k were steady at 200 at start of Dec. Now they are at 730 and rising. We'll have another look at that graph you posted in another few weeks.
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Post by chigstoke on Dec 30, 2020 15:12:50 GMT
FM posting tier updates like it's a transfer story This feels like a huge blow after our Boxing Day success on the rate dropping in the city.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Dec 30, 2020 15:15:02 GMT
She was one of three frontline healthcare professionals, saying the same thing this morning.
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Post by Gary Hackett on Dec 30, 2020 15:17:47 GMT
Glad I got my hair cut last week
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Post by chigstoke on Dec 30, 2020 15:26:58 GMT
/photo/4
Our huge drop from mid 300's means nothing then. All that effort for fuck all.
I'm just absolutely fed the fuck up now of it all.
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