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Post by jezzascfc on Mar 1, 2018 14:01:36 GMT
As ever though, at least one is behind the times and has not been paying attention to Lambert's Stoke with the question: "can Stoke plug their leaky defence?" Stuart James knows a lot about us and has us staying up!
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Post by andystokey on Mar 2, 2018 15:38:19 GMT
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Post by pb1863 on Mar 2, 2018 20:11:31 GMT
1 x point off safety. It’s going to be nail biting but we can do it.
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Post by pb1863 on Mar 3, 2018 1:38:22 GMT
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Post by FullerMagic on Mar 3, 2018 13:18:24 GMT
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Post by andystokey on Mar 3, 2018 17:34:08 GMT
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Post by mattface on Mar 3, 2018 17:35:15 GMT
Interesting I have us staying up on 36
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Post by miggoscfc on Mar 3, 2018 18:49:37 GMT
Not a chance the bottom three will get 38 points. 35 will be enough i get us on 36 on the last day.
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Post by tachyon on Mar 3, 2018 20:47:03 GMT
We're slightly better than a coin toss to stay up after Southampton. So a (very) slight improvement.
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Post by FullerMagic on Mar 4, 2018 16:22:27 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Mar 4, 2018 16:25:19 GMT
The draws start to look much worse. Which I didn't think was possible.
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Post by chiswickpotter on Mar 4, 2018 16:40:19 GMT
The draws start to look much worse. Which I didn't think was possible. Those numbers look wrong, Southampton only have 3 home games left and hard to see how Place would be that high compared to Swansea and West Ham for example. Brighton are as good as safe now so there are 2 slots between 7 teams and I would think we are marginally ahead of Southampton on fixtures and Huddersfield on ability and Palace is in our hands if we beat them
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Post by shipshape on Mar 4, 2018 16:49:28 GMT
The draws start to look much worse. Which I didn't think was possible. Those numbers look wrong, Southampton only have 3 home games left and hard to see how Place would be that high compared to Swansea and West Ham for example. Brighton are as good as safe now so there are 2 slots between 7 teams and I would think we are marginally ahead of Southampton on fixtures and Huddersfield on ability and Palace is in our hands if we beat them Palace have an extra game.
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Post by tachyon on Mar 4, 2018 18:19:37 GMT
cheers, mate. we're around 50/50 for Stoke after Brighton/Arsenal and the bookies go around 53% for us to go down. Implied bookies chance is around 31% for Palace to drop, 32% Huddersfield and 23% Southampton. I think 538 are a bit knee jerk in incorporating really recent form. Our model takes a weighted view over the last 38 matches. Here's our crib sheet for expected average points we think will be won from the remaining games including this week. Red games are the hardest, blue the easiest. Attachment Deleted
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Post by lordb on Mar 4, 2018 20:14:48 GMT
Those numbers look wrong, Southampton only have 3 home games left and hard to see how Place would be that high compared to Swansea and West Ham for example. Brighton are as good as safe now so there are 2 slots between 7 teams and I would think we are marginally ahead of Southampton on fixtures and Huddersfield on ability and Palace is in our hands if we beat them Palace have an extra game. Man United at home tomorrow night.
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Post by ChesterStokie on Mar 4, 2018 22:16:42 GMT
So under Lambert we’ve played the teams currently sitting in 8th, 9th, 10th, 12th, 15th and 17th and basically matched them all.
On current form we’re no better and no worse than any of them.
Surely that gives us more than a decent chance of staying up?
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Post by Cyprusdelilah on Mar 4, 2018 22:34:43 GMT
With Palace a lot depends on Zaha, how long he is injured.
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Post by coachragnar on Mar 5, 2018 0:53:06 GMT
All three of Pulis' teams are for the drop. What can be gleaned from that?
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Post by itsallgonepetetone on Mar 5, 2018 12:21:34 GMT
I did the predictor like everyone else a month or so ago and I still have us to stay up on 37 points with 3 of WB, Huddersfield, West Ham & Newcastle to go down between 29 points and 34 points. I have us with 2nd worse goal difference behind Huddersfield so it leaves us exposed (as we all obviously know) if we drop a few points and tie with someone. Some of those teams have a tough run and I just cant see them passing 34/35 points.
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Post by andystokey on Mar 5, 2018 21:00:41 GMT
I’m gradually coming to the conclusion that the predictor models are going to be seriously wrong. After nearly three quarters of the season there are 7 or 8 teams including us on as near as dammit a point a game. If they carry on at that rate I’m starting to believe that one, possibly two, teams with 37- 38 points will go down.
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Post by lordb on Mar 5, 2018 22:06:11 GMT
I think not only will it go to the last game but someone is going to stay up/ go down because of an injury time goal. Dodgy penalty probably.
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Post by Laughing Gravy on Mar 5, 2018 22:29:47 GMT
I think not only will it go to the last game but someone is going to stay up/ go down because of an injury time goal. Dodgy penalty probably. Or goal difference
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Post by lordb on Mar 5, 2018 22:33:24 GMT
I think not only will it go to the last game but someone is going to stay up/ go down because of an injury time goal. Dodgy penalty probably. Or goal difference That would be really harsh on Huddersfield 😉
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2018 22:40:53 GMT
Disappointed in our earlier fixtures where we threw away draws. I know everyone days we need wins but draws are massive.
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Post by sheriffofrockridge on Mar 5, 2018 22:49:37 GMT
Listen up folks. I've got one of these computers at work and I use it all day from Monday to Friday. They're absolutely crap. Mine keep crashing all the time.
I bet if you follow the advice of our IT department and switch it off at the plug and back on again, then run these fancy simulations one more time, you'll see the mighty potters finishing in relative safety with Wimbledon, Coventry and Luton all being relegated to Division 2.
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Post by jeycov on Mar 5, 2018 22:59:52 GMT
Well watching the Palace v Man Utd game the commentator mentioned that Man Utd were playing 12 men as the Palace fans were creating such a hostile atmosphere, We moan about their drumming, some of their chants but we have to get behind the players selected by PL
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Post by mrcoke on Mar 5, 2018 23:03:52 GMT
I’m gradually coming to the conclusion that the predictor models are going to be seriously wrong. After nearly three quarters of the season there are 7 or 8 teams including us on as near as dammit a point a game. If they carry on at that rate I’m starting to believe that one, possibly two, teams with 37- 38 points will go down. They are bound to be wrong andy because the predictions are based on past performance extrapolated forward. But we are dealing with human beings here and future performance is not totally based on past performance. Clubs have good runs, bad runs, and sometimes very inconsistent periods. Everyone was saying last Christmas Swansea will be relegated, they are not all saying it now. Three years ago everyone was predicting Leicester would be relegated, but they suddenly started winning games on 4th April and avoiding the drop. That was 9 matches to go: www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?league=england_2015&teamid=25They look like easy fixtures now but they included 2 teams in the top half of the table and they finished 6 points clear of relegation, when in March they were certainties to be relegated.
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Post by andystokey on Mar 6, 2018 10:52:23 GMT
I’m gradually coming to the conclusion that the predictor models are going to be seriously wrong. After nearly three quarters of the season there are 7 or 8 teams including us on as near as dammit a point a game. If they carry on at that rate I’m starting to believe that one, possibly two, teams with 37- 38 points will go down. They are bound to be wrong andy because the predictions are based on past performance extrapolated forward. But we are dealing with human beings here and future performance is not totally based on past performance. Clubs have good runs, bad runs, and sometimes very inconsistent periods. Everyone was saying last Christmas Swansea will be relegated, they are not all saying it now. Three years ago everyone was predicting Leicester would be relegated, but they suddenly started winning games on 4th April and avoiding the drop. That was 9 matches to go: www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?league=england_2015&teamid=25They look like easy fixtures now but they included 2 teams in the top half of the table and they finished 6 points clear of relegation, when in March they were certainties to be relegated. it does still lead me to believe that with 10 clubs in the mix. The unprecedented relegation battle we are in 37 or 38 might not be enough.
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Post by lordb on Mar 6, 2018 12:19:41 GMT
Amazingly we no longer stand alone as most goals conceded, West Ham have also conceded just the 54 goals Five sides have scored less than us too
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Post by JurgenVandeurzen on Mar 6, 2018 12:34:47 GMT
Well watching the Palace v Man Utd game the commentator mentioned that Man Utd were playing 12 men as the Palace fans were creating such a hostile atmosphere, We moan about their drumming, some of their chants but we have to get behind the players selected by PL The support on Saturday was great - didn't make a difference. The predicament we're in is nobodies fault but the board, managers, and the players - incidentally they're the only ones who can get us out of this mess. All the noise in the world isn't going to save us. For 75 minutes on Saturday, our fans were as noisy as I've heard all season. "Paul Lambert's red & white army" for 20 minutes solid - I call that getting behind the players. It's on them to get behind us now, and give us something to cheer about!
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