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Post by mattface on Feb 13, 2018 20:53:10 GMT
Just seen Adam's pen again. HOW does he not tap in the rebound?!😢😢😢 Would've given us a slim chance of survival. The fact he had is legs taken from under him
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Post by tachyon on Feb 26, 2018 22:30:20 GMT
Re run 10,000 simulations for the remaining matches after the weekend and we go down in 51 out of every 100 trials.
So it's virtually a coin toss.
37 points is when our survival becomes more likely than not. We can stay up with as few as 34 points, but it's hugely unlikely and we can go down with 39 points, but again that's unlikely.
WBA go down in 85 out of every 100 sims, Swans 48/100, Huddersfield 32/100, Palace 23/100, Newcastle 20/100, Soton 19/100, WHU 9/100, Brighton 8/100, Bournemouth 4/100, Everton 1/100, Watford 1/200, Burnley 1/1000.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Feb 26, 2018 22:39:30 GMT
Re run 10,000 simulations for the remaining matches after the weekend and we go down in 51 out of every 100 trials. So it's virtually a coin toss. 37 points is when our survival becomes more likely than not. We can stay up with as few as 34 points, but it's hugely unlikely and we can go down with 39 points, but again that's unlikely. WBA go down in 85 out of every 100 sims, Swans 48/100, Huddersfield 32/100, Palace 23/100, Newcastle 20/100, Soton 19/100, WHU 9/100, Brighton 8/100, Bournemouth 4/100, Everton 1/100, Watford 1/200, Burnley 1/1000. Does Palace's 23/100 take into account that their first XI is completely ravaged by injuries and that it will be impossible for Hodgson to even remotely get near fielding anything like his best side for the next few matches?
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Post by jimmyjazz on Feb 26, 2018 23:18:42 GMT
Palace have Man U, Chelsea & Liverpool as 3 of their next 4 games. Soton only have 4 home games left for some reason. After they've played us they have 4 away games (including Wigan in the cup) then only have Chelsea, a local derby with Bournemouth and a final game against Man City left at home. I would say they were in deep doo doo even if they beat us. I don't get this only relegated in 19/100 simulations.
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Post by spitthedog on Feb 26, 2018 23:37:49 GMT
Looking at the remaining 12 games.......and assuming that Stoke will lose to all 7 teams currently in 10th place or above......Lei, ManC, Eve, Arse, Spurs, Burn, Liv. That leaves 5 games that must be won......BHA, Sou, WHam, CP, Swans to reach 39 points. One draw in those 5 games and Stoke finishes with 37 points and a free ticket to The Championship. Very bleak. Of course, the team could play above their heads and beat The Arse or other top half team. The thing that may allow Stoke to wiggle off the hook is that they are at the same number of points as Swansea, have 2 points less than Southampton and 3 points less than BHA, West Ham and CP. This puts Stoke in the position of having to rely on the incompetence of other teams in order to remain in the EPL. Unfortunate position to be in. Don't mind me, I just need to engage in "what if's" in order to control the anxiety level. This is fundamentally flawed, why would you assume that we would lose to Everton and Burnley at home when history tells you that mid-table teams with nothing to play for are the ideal opponents in a relegation battle? I think it is flawed, but the assumption that Burnley and Everton will be apathetic is stretching it. Sam is under huge pressure at Everton where there is mounting unrest and Dyche is 100% every game.
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Post by enuntio on Feb 26, 2018 23:44:05 GMT
Looked at the odds earlier and Saints were 5/1 for relegation. Has to be worth a punt before Saturday's match. I had them finishing 18th, a point below Stoke and Swansea in that predictor thing.
This weekend's game is worth a fortune for both clubs.
For the neutrals it has draw written all over it...
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Post by kustokie on Feb 27, 2018 0:07:39 GMT
Looking at the remaining 12 games.......and assuming that Stoke will lose to all 7 teams currently in 10th place or above......Lei, ManC, Eve, Arse, Spurs, Burn, Liv. That leaves 5 games that must be won......BHA, Sou, WHam, CP, Swans to reach 39 points. One draw in those 5 games and Stoke finishes with 37 points and a free ticket to The Championship. Very bleak. Of course, the team could play above their heads and beat The Arse or other top half team. The thing that may allow Stoke to wiggle off the hook is that they are at the same number of points as Swansea, have 2 points less than Southampton and 3 points less than BHA, West Ham and CP. This puts Stoke in the position of having to rely on the incompetence of other teams in order to remain in the EPL. Unfortunate position to be in. Don't mind me, I just need to engage in "what if's" in order to control the anxiety level. Sound like you’ve OCD - like 95% of everyone else on the Oatcake. By my calculations we need three wins and two draws, which will give us 37 points which should be just enough. Hopefully that calms you down a bit. Otherwise I recommend single malt or a stiff one - works for me!
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Post by y_oh_y_delilah on Feb 27, 2018 0:13:08 GMT
I’ve used a different set of criteria. Currently we have 26 points with 10 games left. So a possible 30 points to play for. Assuming we win all 10 games we will attain a total 56 points. Probably not sufficient for a European place but a solid 7th place finish is possible. Let’s not just settle for another season of mid table mediocrity is my message.
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Post by kustokie on Feb 27, 2018 0:15:43 GMT
I’ve used a different set of criteria. Currently we have 26 points with 10 games left. So a possible 30 points to play for. Assuming we win all 10 games we will attain a total 56 points. Probably not sufficient for a European place but a solid 7th place finish is possible. Let’s not just settle for another season of mid table mediocrity is my message. Doable! But isn’t 7th place a mid-table finish?
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Post by pottarius on Feb 27, 2018 0:31:36 GMT
Palace have Man U, Chelsea & Liverpool as 3 of their next 4 games. Soton only have 4 home games left for some reason. After they've played us they have 4 away games (including Wigan in the cup) then only have Chelsea, a local derby with Bournemouth and a final game against Man City left at home. I would say they were in deep doo doo even if they beat us. I don't get this only relegated in 19/100 simulations. I agree, the Saints run in is awful I really think this weekend is ultimately going to be the most important game for us this season - if we win then I think Saints are down along with the Baggies leaving one spot for us to try and avoid. If we lose then I think we're toast barring a couple of miracle results against the bigboys which seem as likely as a Saido hat-trick
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Post by roylandstoke on Feb 27, 2018 0:44:20 GMT
Palace have Man U, Chelsea & Liverpool as 3 of their next 4 games. Soton only have 4 home games left for some reason. After they've played us they have 4 away games (including Wigan in the cup) then only have Chelsea, a local derby with Bournemouth and a final game against Man City left at home. I would say they were in deep doo doo even if they beat us. I don't get this only relegated in 19/100 simulations. I agree, the Saints run in is awful I really think this weekend is ultimately going to be the most important game for us this season - if we win then I think Saints are down along with the Baggies leaving one spot for us to try and avoid. If we lose then I think we're toast barring a couple of miracle results against the bigboys which seem as likely as a Saido hat-trick
A Saido hat-trick will happen this week! Keep the dream!
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Post by blackpoolred on Feb 27, 2018 6:26:55 GMT
All these bloody calculators and Simulators are driving me bonkers None of them takes into account that we cant win a game of Nogger. Let us celebrate in the fact that we have finally reached the next level we were all craving so much
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Post by y_oh_y_delilah on Feb 27, 2018 7:09:14 GMT
I’ve used a different set of criteria. Currently we have 26 points with 10 games left. So a possible 30 points to play for. Assuming we win all 10 games we will attain a total 56 points. Probably not sufficient for a European place but a solid 7th place finish is possible. Let’s not just settle for another season of mid table mediocrity is my message. Doable! But isn’t 7th place a mid-table finish? Good point, we’ll made but I suppose anything between 2nd and 19th could loosely be described as mid table. 🤔
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Post by tachyon on Feb 27, 2018 8:19:32 GMT
The 5/1 about Southampton to go down implies the bookmakers think it will happen around 17 times out of 100. (Slightly less, once you account for their margin).
The Southampton game is indeed huge.
If we lose our chance of relegation rises to 62 times out of 100.
If we draw it stays at around 50 times out of 100.
And if we win we only go down around 33 times out of 100.
The bookmakers are currently going 54% a Southampton win, 26% the draw and 20% a Stoke win. They've arrived at those figures because Southampton are at home and they also think they are a better team than Stoke. I'm slightly more optimistic, making it 51/25/24.
PS Palace's rating has been reduced to reflect their current injury situation.
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Post by FullerMagic on Feb 27, 2018 13:39:10 GMT
The 5/1 about Southampton to go down implies the bookmakers think it will happen around 17 times out of 100. (Slightly less, once you account for their margin). The Southampton game is indeed huge. If we lose our chance of relegation rises to 62 times out of 100. If we draw it stays at around 50 times out of 100. And if we win we only go down around 33 times out of 100. The bookmakers are currently going 54% a Southampton win, 26% the draw and 20% a Stoke win. They've arrived at those figures because Southampton are at home and they also think they are a better team than Stoke. I'm slightly more optimistic, making it 51/25/24. PS Palace's rating has been reduced to reflect their current injury situation. Wow. Just shows the extent to which Saturday could really, really move the needle for us. Here are 538's sim results... projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/WBA 90% of relegtion Stoke 61% of relegation (was 63% before Leicester!) Swansea 35% Hudds 26% Soton 23% Newc 18% Palace 17% Brighton 13% West Ham 11%
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Post by davejohnno1 on Feb 27, 2018 13:43:13 GMT
We need a result that takes us out of the Bottom 3 sooner rather than later.
However much I try to convince myself it isn't the case, Southampton is almost certainly a "must win" game and it is 100% definitely a "must not lose" game.
Lose and we are well and truly gone.
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Post by FullerMagic on Feb 27, 2018 13:50:06 GMT
1 win in the last 15 for them (and that was against the Baggies)
Even we have managed 3 in that time frame!
If the tables were turned, we'd be fearing the worst. Their confidence will be on the floor. And the manager they blame for it all is still in charge. Their fans will be ready to vent in a big way.
The chance is there for us
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Post by davejohnno1 on Feb 27, 2018 13:54:28 GMT
1 win in the last 15 for them (and that was against the Baggies) Even we have managed 3 in that time frame! If the tables were turned, we'd be fearing the worst. Their confidence will be on the floor. And the manager they blame for it all is still in charge. Their fans will be ready to vent in a big way. The chance is there for us All points to the SCFC registered charity rolling into town then!
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Feb 27, 2018 20:36:47 GMT
We need a result that takes us out of the Bottom 3 sooner rather than later. However much I try to convince myself it isn't the case, Southampton is almost certainly a "must win" game and it is 100% definitely a "must not lose" game. Lose and we are well and truly gone. Unfortunately can't see us winning this, and a draw won't be enough. We need a massively improved performance Probably doesn't help that one of their misfiring strikers scored last week
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2018 21:05:42 GMT
TBF..I believe we will be fine..
T E S T
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Post by lordb on Feb 27, 2018 21:13:20 GMT
We need a result that takes us out of the Bottom 3 sooner rather than later. However much I try to convince myself it isn't the case, Southampton is almost certainly a "must win" game and it is 100% definitely a "must not lose" game. Lose and we are well and truly gone. Unfortunately can't see us winning this, and a draw won't be enough. We need a massively improved performance Probably doesn't help that one of their misfiring strikers scored last week Do we need to be massively better than our last game? We are playing a side who aren't as good as Leicester. Will help if our keeper doesn't chuck one in. This is a more than winnable game. Of course they will be saying the same!
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Feb 27, 2018 21:31:57 GMT
Unfortunately can't see us winning this, and a draw won't be enough. We need a massively improved performance Probably doesn't help that one of their misfiring strikers scored last week Do we need to be massively better than our last game? We are playing a side who aren't as good as Leicester. Will help if our keeper doesn't chuck one in. This is a more than winnable game. Of course they will be saying the same! Agreed but there has been a few winnable games that we didn't win. We just don't appear to be able to close games out and our away record is shocking. We don't need to be massively better than last week to win it but we need to be massively tougher mentally. The panic stations for the last 15 mins last week was very hard to watch and I'd be afraid I'd have a heart attack if we are 1 up with a quarter of the game to go! I'd love the stars to align and for us to stuff them by 3
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Post by mrcoke on Feb 27, 2018 23:42:01 GMT
I don't do the relegation maths. I spent a lot of time in the 1970s trying to do pools predictions, using all manner of probabilities, expert forecasts, etc., and never won sod all.
I believe human nature changes very little and what has repeatedly happened in the past, whether it be runs of good form, bad form, injuries, giving up, complacency, miraculous turnarounds in form, etc., etc. Every season we see a miraculous recovery, which appears to be happening to Swansea who everyone was saying were a cert for relegation at Christmas. Southampton and West Brom have a lot of good players, who are playing atrociously, but they could suddenly click and find some form.
Brighton, Huddersfield and Newcastle are not safe, and are similar in that they have managers who are getting the very best of mediocre squads of players. It would be very unusual for all 3 promoted sides to stay up, so my bet is at least one will go down, probably Brighton based on remaining fixtures; their programme is a lot tougher than the other two.
It would not surprise me in the slightest to see West Ham and Palace finnishing up where they spent the opening months of the season, in the bottom 3. Their bounce is fizzling out and they are now failing to beat other bottom teams like each other. Palace have the more difficult remaining fixtures, but West Ham have to play 7 of their remaining 10 matches against top 9 placed teams.
So I am unable to predict results, but history and gut feeling tells me outside of the 3 obvious candidates for relegation (WBA, us, Saints) it could just as well be Brighton, Palace, and West Ham.
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Post by wilcopotter on Feb 28, 2018 0:13:18 GMT
A bit beyond me this, even if it wasn’t I wouldn’t have time for all this hypothetical analysis. Really praying we stay up though.
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Post by kustokie on Feb 28, 2018 0:24:55 GMT
Doable! But isn’t 7th place a mid-table finish? Good point, we’ll made but I suppose anything between 2nd and 19th could loosely be described as mid table. 🤔 Exactly. I’m 62 and still describe myself as middle aged! In fact, I consider myself in the prime of life and expecting an invitation to join the PGA tour any day now!
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Post by Gods on Feb 28, 2018 0:31:57 GMT
All these bloody calculators and Simulators are driving me bonkers None of them takes into account that we cant win a game of Nogger.Let us celebrate in the fact that we have finally reached the next level we were all craving so much You've hit upon a fundamental truth there. For all the talk of permutations, formations, expectations, and ramifications the harsh reality is we only very rarely win a game of football and we never win 2 in a row.
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Post by hanibal7 on Feb 28, 2018 0:35:36 GMT
What will be, will be.
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Post by Dave the Rave on Feb 28, 2018 22:11:02 GMT
The only maths you need to consider is that I wagered £50 at 5/6 on us going down which now means we're staying up.
Anything else is now rendered irrelevant.
You're welcome.
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Post by lancyclaret on Mar 1, 2018 12:13:57 GMT
We need a result that takes us out of the Bottom 3 sooner rather than later. However much I try to convince myself it isn't the case, Southampton is almost certainly a "must win" game and it is 100% definitely a "must not lose" game. Lose and we are well and truly gone. Unfortunately can't see us winning this, and a draw won't be enough. We need a massively improved performance Probably doesn't help that one of their misfiring strikers scored last week Gabbiadini only scored because incompetent referee Madley started the 90th minute move which led to the equaliser and then failed to give Burnley a free-kick when Gabbiadini nudged Kevin Long in the back before slotting the ball home. With help like that from refs, Saints will survive.
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Post by FullerMagic on Mar 1, 2018 13:23:02 GMT
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