wapiti
Youth Player
Posts: 400
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Post by wapiti on Dec 2, 2017 2:39:45 GMT
Currently at 13 points after 14 games, basically a draw for every game played. If Stoke continues at that pace, maybe a win somewhere in there, they will reach 40. Out of the next 5 games they will win 3 for an additional 9 points. That's 22 points at the midway point......on target for the 40 point safety net. They'll wake up and probably do better in the second half of the season. So there you have it, the maths do not lie. Even with safety assured, the complaints will continue.
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Post by JoeinOz on Dec 2, 2017 2:42:03 GMT
Why are you so confident we'll do better in the second half of the seasoN??
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Post by riccyfuller93 on Dec 2, 2017 2:46:03 GMT
The maths say that Stoke could stay up "If Stoke continues that pace, 9 points in the next 5, probably do better in the second half of the season, and hope the teams below us keep going at the same pace" Yes maths say a team can win the league if they win every game.
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Post by Ex-term-oat-cake on Dec 2, 2017 4:12:22 GMT
“...maybe a win somewhere in there...”
So basically we have to improve. Usually the teams with the worst goal difference go down.
We have the 4th worst goal difference.
Lose to Swansea and we join them in the bottom three and potentially get the third worst goal difference.
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Post by basingstokie on Dec 2, 2017 6:50:01 GMT
So we should stay up if our form season to date continues. But what if it gets worse - we don't have much of a safety net
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2017 6:56:57 GMT
I totally agree with the OP...The maths don't lie.
In fact I will go a step further, barring injuries we can easily win our remaining 26 games and we will end up on 85 points. Not enough for the title, but next year there is no reason why, if we continue that form, we cant get 100+ points.
Oh, and if we win 6 straight FA Cup games we will also win the cup.
THE MATHS DON"T LIE.
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Post by mouseykanga2 on Dec 2, 2017 7:38:47 GMT
Maths was boring... Just like our football 😁😁😁
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Post by pyrus on Dec 2, 2017 8:47:03 GMT
There is something about the OP’s post - see the linked graph ....although it doesn’t suggest that we are safe only that we have been showing borderline relegation form all season. (I have to credit my son who did this for his maths homework a few weeks back and has kept it going) m.imgur.com/gallery/yQxTQ |
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Post by mrred on Dec 2, 2017 8:56:04 GMT
Football isn't quite that cut and dry is it?
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Post by scfc75 on Dec 2, 2017 8:59:59 GMT
I genuinely can't decide if this is a piss take or not.
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Post by benjaminbiscuit on Dec 2, 2017 9:00:33 GMT
Actually they don't if you do a regression line of our points trajectory over the last 18 months we are down in May assuming it's 38 thatvconfirms what we see with Our eyes and the impact of under investment and botched window after window .
another way to look at the maths is the table of investment over the last 4 years , we go down in that too if any promoted clubs survive .
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Post by johnnysoul60 on Dec 2, 2017 9:00:59 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2017 9:06:57 GMT
Depressingly good article that. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2017 9:07:30 GMT
Currently at 13 points after 14 games, basically a draw for every game played. If Stoke continues at that pace, maybe a win somewhere in there, they will reach 40. Out of the next 5 games they will win 3 for an additional 9 points. That's 22 points at the midway point......on target for the 40 point safety net. They'll wake up and probably do better in the second half of the season. So there you have it, the maths do not lie. Even with safety assured, the complaints will continue. 'The maths do not lie' v 'Lies, damned lies, and statistics' I personally think we'll avoid relegation, but the truth is our figures for the last 2 and a bit seasons has shown steady regression, and there is no evidence to suggest we will guarantee a better points haul in the second half of the season. Taking 13-game periods since the start of 15/16 season, our points return has gradually got worse and worse: First 13 games of 15/16 = 1.46 ppg Second 13 games of 15/16 = 1.31 ppg Final 12 games of 15/16 = 1.25 ppg First 13 games of 16/17 = 1.23 ppg Second 13 games of 16/17 = 1.23 ppg Final 12 games of 16/17 = 1 ppg First 13 games of 17/18 = 1 ppg If survival this season is our only aim, then we'll probably achieve it. If we are looking to take a step forward and improve on the last couple of seasons - which have been disappointing by the club's own admission - then unfortunately the figures don't look promising at all. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2017 9:32:51 GMT
"Perhaps Martin Atkinson didn’t send Mignolet off because he couldn’t be certain that an open goal constituted a clear scoring opportunity." Made me chuckle. And die a little inside. |
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Post by wizzardofdribble on Dec 2, 2017 9:39:07 GMT
Currently at 13 points after 14 games, basically a draw for every game played. If Stoke continues at that pace, maybe a win somewhere in there, they will reach 40. Out of the next 5 games they will win 3 for an additional 9 points. That's 22 points at the midway point......on target for the 40 point safety net. They'll wake up and probably do better in the second half of the season. So there you have it, the maths do not lie. Even with safety assured, the complaints will continue. Betting companies don't base their odds on maths but probability. Statistical analysis using probability is completely different to maths which purely extrapolates from current trends. Probability changes from game to game. That's the difference. With each game we play the probability of us not conceding gets higher & the probability of us winning gets lower...very marginally. And it's this that should make us concerned irrespective of whether we are Hughes in or out. |
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Post by Davef on Dec 2, 2017 10:07:32 GMT
Actually the maths states otherwise.
We've conceded 29 goals, which is just over two a game. If we end the season having conceded an average of two goals a game, we WILL go down, make no mistake about that.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2017 10:12:47 GMT
Currently at 13 points after 14 games, basically a draw for every game played. If Stoke continues at that pace, maybe a win somewhere in there, they will reach 40. Out of the next 5 games they will win 3 for an additional 9 points. That's 22 points at the midway point......on target for the 40 point safety net. They'll wake up and probably do better in the second half of the season. So there you have it, the maths do not lie. Even with safety assured, the complaints will continue. I sincerely hope the maths do signify our continuing premiership status however I think people are dissatisfied with the product on the pitch over the last few seasons. Gone is the Pulisesque grit, fight and passion Gone is the Latin flair of Stokelona We have lost all shape and identity It is this loss I believe we bemoan. Who are we now? |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2017 10:14:05 GMT
Currently at 13 points after 14 games, basically a draw for every game played. If Stoke continues at that pace, maybe a win somewhere in there, they will reach 40. Out of the next 5 games they will win 3 for an additional 9 points. That's 22 points at the midway point......on target for the 40 point safety net. They'll wake up and probably do better in the second half of the season. So there you have it, the maths do not lie. Even with safety assured, the complaints will continue. Betting companies don't base their odds on maths but probability. Statistical analysis using probability is completely different to maths which purely extrapolates from current trends. Probability changes from game to game. That's the difference. With each game we play the probability of us not conceding gets higher & the probability of us winning gets lower...very marginally. And it's this that should make us concerned irrespective of whether we are Hughes in or out. Very well put 👍😇 |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2017 10:16:33 GMT
"Perhaps Martin Atkinson didn’t send Mignolet off because he couldn’t be certain that an open goal constituted a clear scoring opportunity." Made me chuckle. And die a little inside. If so it is a shocking indictment of Diouf's ability in front of goal! In Atkinson's mind at least! 😇 Aka: couldn't score an open one 15 yards out! Even I had a high probability of scoring that! 😁 |
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Post by Godo on Dec 2, 2017 10:19:48 GMT
I admire your optimism but your maths is a bit shit. Based on current points to games ratio we'd end up with 35 pts.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Dec 2, 2017 10:20:38 GMT
Currently at 13 points after 14 games, basically a draw for every game played. If Stoke continues at that pace, maybe a win somewhere in there, they will reach 40. Out of the next 5 games they will win 3 for an additional 9 points. That's 22 points at the midway point......on target for the 40 point safety net. They'll wake up and probably do better in the second half of the season. So there you have it, the maths do not lie. Even with safety assured, the complaints will continue. That's not maths, that's pure speculation. 13 points after 14 games extrapolated over 38 games gives you 35.2 points. |
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Post by mozzer on Dec 2, 2017 11:20:41 GMT
Fuck your maths, there's a simple alternative
Play as we are flirt with relegation
Play better and we stop up
Easy peasy and no abacus needed
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Post by superheroantonius on Dec 2, 2017 11:37:48 GMT
Currently at 13 points after 14 games, basically a draw for every game played. If Stoke continues at that pace, maybe a win somewhere in there, they will reach 40. Out of the next 5 games they will win 3 for an additional 9 points. That's 22 points at the midway point......on target for the 40 point safety net. They'll wake up and probably do better in the second half of the season. So there you have it, the maths do not lie. Even with safety assured, the complaints will continue. 13/14 =0.928 0.928 x 38 games =35 points I think you will find the maths says we are going down |
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Post by bayernoatcake on Dec 2, 2017 11:40:41 GMT
I always used to question what the point of doing maths was to my maths teachers at school and they'd all say the same thing. "You'll use it later in life". Utter bollocks like the maths at the top of this thread.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 2, 2017 11:41:43 GMT
We all know 5 out of 4 people struggle with maths.
Today is a day for grit and effort, do the maths after.
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Post by Gods on Dec 2, 2017 11:51:52 GMT
Currently at 13 points after 14 games, basically a draw for every game played. If Stoke continues at that pace, maybe a win somewhere in there, they will reach 40. Out of the next 5 games they will win 3 for an additional 9 points. That's 22 points at the midway point......on target for the 40 point safety net. They'll wake up and probably do better in the second half of the season. So there you have it, the maths do not lie. Even with safety assured, the complaints will continue. That's not maths, that's pure speculation. 13 points after 14 games extrapolated over 38 games gives you 35.2 points. I wondered how long it would take for someone to point out to the OP that while paying tribute to the 'maths' he then went on to abjectly fail to correctly apply the maths and instead chose to a add a little bit of 'artistic impression' all of his own to boost our projected points total to something more palatable to him!! |
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Post by Pugsley on Dec 2, 2017 12:13:04 GMT
Currently at 13 points after 14 games, basically a draw for every game played. If Stoke continues at that pace, maybe a win somewhere in there, they will reach 40. Out of the next 5 games they will win 3 for an additional 9 points. That's 22 points at the midway point......on target for the 40 point safety net. They'll wake up and probably do better in the second half of the season. So there you have it, the maths do not lie. Even with safety assured, the complaints will continue. That's not maths, that's pure speculation. 13 points after 14 games extrapolated over 38 games gives you 35.2 points. You haven't added the 'maybe a win somewhere in there' factor into your equation. Schoolboy error. |
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Post by Stoke711 on Dec 2, 2017 12:22:51 GMT
That's not maths, that's pure speculation. 13 points after 14 games extrapolated over 38 games gives you 35.2 points. You haven't added the 'maybe a win somewhere in there' factor into your equation. Schoolboy error. Is that what is classed as Algebra these days? |
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Post by jestershat on Dec 2, 2017 12:25:32 GMT
There is something about the OP’s post - see the linked graph ....although it doesn’t suggest that we are safe only that we have been showing borderline relegation form all season. (I have to credit my son who did this for his maths homework a few weeks back and has kept it going) m.imgur.com/gallery/yQxTQGreat graph - well done him. It shows very clearly what we've (not) done and what we have to do. I hope it is as clear to our management team and players - maybe it should go on the dressing room wall. Borderline is right. |
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