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Post by Clayton Wood on Nov 16, 2018 11:52:56 GMT
What do you think the purpose is of discussing an EU Army at the highest echelons such as Macron & Merkel? To discuss whether it would be beneficial, affordable, possible I would have thought. At the moment, it is not affordable (not easily) and it is probably not possible with the politics of member states right now.The beneficial argument is a matter of opinion. Exactly what I think. It's like a policy leak except more official due to there being multiple states involved. Let's float this again and see the reaction. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2018 11:53:51 GMT
What do you think the purpose is of discussing an EU Army at the highest echelons such as Macron & Merkel? To discuss whether it would be beneficial, affordable, possible I would have thought. At the moment, it is not affordable (not easily) and it is probably not possible with the politics of member states right now. The beneficial argument is a matter of opinion. Creating a large army on the borders of Russia while alienating our most powerful ally .....hmm very clever plan |
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Nov 16, 2018 11:54:24 GMT
Oggy In the real world that's not really the point. As you know Merkel,Juncker and Verhostadt have clearly said that is their/the direction of travel....to much support in the EU parliament. As usual to deny the obvious ( what the organisation itself says it stands for and itself says that it intend s to do) is to completely undermine any argument you might have. A totally laughable and diversionary stance......the elephant in the room comes to mind if you can't see it. Does that mean an EU “death star” is inevitable? When has the EU ever invaded other nations? The direction of travel is not for the EU to try to invade the world/rest of europe with a military force! In fact ever closer union suggests the absolute opposite to me. It suggests we want to be close and so peaceful with each other and not fight each other. The EU army does not exist. It may in future but I have my doubts. Merkel is on the way out. There is a more isolationist approach of some member states and the heads of the member states have the power in the EU. They decide. Getting money to fund it will be extremely difficult. You are in self denial. The whole project is based upon Ever closer union. Actually when Merkel goes ( the future!) I actually think it will get worse...Manfred Weber is a very influential one , coming through, well respected in the EU because he is an absolute believer...he is German as well . The solemn declaration of the EU.... The Heads of State or Government of the Member States of the European Communities meeting within the European Council resolved to continue the work begun on the basis of the Treaties of Paris and Rome and to create a united Europe, which is more than ever necessary in order to meet the dangers of the world situation, capable of assuming the responsibilities incumbent on it by virtue of its political role, its economic potential and its manifold links with other peoples, ... The Heads of State or Government, on the basis of an awareness of a common destiny and the wish to affirm the European identity, confirm their commitment to progress towards an ever closer union among the peoples and Member States of the European Community. |
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Post by followyoudown on Nov 16, 2018 12:01:48 GMT
And there is making straw man arguments and then there is this. The EU is already so much more entangled into Law and agreements then people were ever told or agreed to and voted for that the its all too complicated to leave argument has already been advanced imagine then if the EU effectively takes over your defence, these countries wouldn't have their own armies there would be an EU army with EU equipment / hardware that would all be gone if any country voted to leave the EU. It’s very simple to leave. Serve notice and wait 2 years and you are out. Getting a better deal when we are out than remaining in it is impossibleand solving the problems the EU solves by its mere existence is much, much harder (eg irish border). It is indeed now but even then just look at the scare stories coming out and x that by ten if you have given up your defence and your own army. |
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Post by followyoudown on Nov 16, 2018 12:08:21 GMT
On the plus side Labour should be down a vote by the end of the day (wave)
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Nov 16, 2018 12:13:35 GMT
A little light relief...
I did it myself once, but at least they were two similar brown shoes.
Juncker wanted to put his best foot forward, but wasn't sure which one it was.
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Post by rogerjonesisgod on Nov 16, 2018 13:09:52 GMT
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Post by trickydicky73 on Nov 16, 2018 13:18:31 GMT
Looks like Leadsome has been bought, again.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2018 13:45:37 GMT
Have we reached this stage yet, or did we pass it months ago and I missed it?
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Post by trickydicky73 on Nov 16, 2018 13:49:07 GMT
As wank as this deal is, why has nobody else come up with a viable alternative? Unless I have missed it?
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Post by ravey123 on Nov 16, 2018 13:53:06 GMT
Project Fear Part 2b just been on Sky "Independant" News.
A 12 minute special "news" report which will no doubt be replayed over and over again about the outcome of a no deal Brexit.
I tuned in to see if we were going to get a fair and reasoned programme - what a crock of shit. EVERY SINGLE part of the whole 12 minutes was about how we will suffer with this , suffer with that and if you're not sure about it suffer with the other too. Problems here, problems there, problems everywhere.
Not a single word for the other side of the argument.
It's being cranked up people.
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Post by followyoudown on Nov 16, 2018 14:07:00 GMT
As wank as this deal is, why has nobody else come up with a viable alternative? Unless I have missed it? Good question now to me this total capitulation by the UK seems to be retaining the benefits of customs union membership and free single market access for the period of transition which to me seems quite close to effective free EU membership, now a year or 18 months of that is fine with me and also another reason why I can't see the EU would want the backstop anymore than us so lets crack on with the Free Trade Agreement and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed thats the EU mantra so it still applies I assume, |
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Post by Northy on Nov 16, 2018 14:40:48 GMT
You have not seen Star Wars then  Why does a trading organisation with no foreign policy need an army ? The aim is very clear to create an organisation that is impossible to leave. Sorry, I don’t follow. Do you think the EU wants an army to “strongarm” its member states into not leaving? I mean there are conspiracy theories and then there is this!! The existence of an EU army would not change article 50. Any nation can leave by serving notice to do so, as we have done. It’s very simple.The EU army (that doesn’t exist) has nothing to do with leaving. If only ... |
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Post by trickydicky73 on Nov 16, 2018 14:41:26 GMT
As wank as this deal is, why has nobody else come up with a viable alternative? Unless I have missed it? Good question now to me this total capitulation by the UK seems to be retaining the benefits of customs union membership and free single market access for the period of transition which to me seems quite close to effective free EU membership, now a year or 18 months of that is fine with me and also another reason why I can't see the EU would want the backstop anymore than us so lets crack on with the Free Trade Agreement and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed thats the EU mantra so it still applies I assume, We are being told that "no deal" is a non starter, and Labour seem to be offering no Brexit at all, so I guess I am wondering what kind of Brexit people can live with? I have slated this deal, too, but I can't see any real alternatives being offered by the Opposition that honour the referendum result any more. |
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Post by Clayton Wood on Nov 16, 2018 14:45:14 GMT
Good question now to me this total capitulation by the UK seems to be retaining the benefits of customs union membership and free single market access for the period of transition which to me seems quite close to effective free EU membership, now a year or 18 months of that is fine with me and also another reason why I can't see the EU would want the backstop anymore than us so lets crack on with the Free Trade Agreement and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed thats the EU mantra so it still applies I assume, We are being told that "no deal" is a non starter, and Labour seem to be offering no Brexit at all, so I guess I am wondering what kind of Brexit people can live with? I have slated this deal, too, but I can't see any real alternatives being offered by the Opposition that honour the referendum result any more. They aren't interested in the referendum. They have openly stated they want a GE in a bid to take power. |
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Post by trickydicky73 on Nov 16, 2018 14:52:11 GMT
We are being told that "no deal" is a non starter, and Labour seem to be offering no Brexit at all, so I guess I am wondering what kind of Brexit people can live with? I have slated this deal, too, but I can't see any real alternatives being offered by the Opposition that honour the referendum result any more. They aren't interested in the referendum. They have openly stated they want a GE in a bid to take power. I just watched last night's Question Time from Milford Haven. Dimbleby had a hard time in getting anything out of Barry Gardiner about Brexit. That's why they want a "People's Vote", because they can't negotiate a deal that honours Brexit, even if they wanted to. It's a cop out. At least the Liberal Democrats have been honest about wanting to stay in. |
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Post by rogerjonesisgod on Nov 16, 2018 14:52:52 GMT
As wank as this deal is, why has nobody else come up with a viable alternative? Unless I have missed it? Good question now to me this total capitulation by the UK seems to be retaining the benefits of customs union membership and free single market access for the period of transition which to me seems quite close to effective free EU membership, now a year or 18 months of that is fine with me and also another reason why I can't see the EU would want the backstop anymore than us so lets crack on with the Free Trade Agreement and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed thats the EU mantra so it still applies I assume, No. The Withdrawal agreement is International Law binding future UK Governments. Within the WA are the 3 items; Citizens rights, Irish border and financial payment. Once past 29th March 2019 the idea that an FTA can be agreed and implemented by 31st December 2020 is supposedly 'optimistic' so any further negotiating period comes in two forms. 1) Extend the so called transition period beyond 2020. 2) Trigger the 'backstop'. Applying for either of these is only allowed once. I say apply because the UK can either choose to open negotiations into extending the transition period or choose to open negotiations into triggering the backstop. That is the only unilateral choice the UK has. Extending the transition period comes with most of responsibilities of being in the EU customs union, single market, freedom of movement etc, etc and paying the usual EU contributions. Some contributions will not be paid as some responsibilities stop after 2020 BUT the rebate also stops so the pay-to-play extension period is a more expensive place per day then where we are now. The UK also risks being involved with the next EU 7 yearly financial budget cycle that kicks in after 2020. The length of the extension could be up to 2099. Triggering the backstop commits the whole UK to be in a 'customs area' until the FTA is completed. The UK can change certain domestic rules within this 'customs area' but Northern Ireland can't. So politically no PM would actually change anything because this would see NI continue to follow the EU's rules whilst the rest of the UK diverges. This backstop continues until the FTA (including the Irish border) satisfies both parties. The the FTA is implemented and the backstops ceases and can't be revived. If at any point during this backstop the UK think that an agreement on an FTA will never be reached they can ask for a 'Joint Review Panel' to assess the progress so far. That JRP is made up of 5 members, 2 appointed by the EU, 2 appointed by the UK and 1 which they both agree to appoint. It would up to the UK to convince the JRP that the EU are not acting in good faith and we'd like to leave the negotiations. If the JRP agreed then I assume we'd walk away with anything agreed in place and whatever wasn't agreed as outstanding and then coming under WTO or the relevant International body but maybe not and if there couldn't be 100% agreement over an FTA then there was nothing. So Brexiteers argue that it's easiest thing in the world for the EU to not agree to an extension period leaving the UK with only the backstop option and then never agreeing an FTA. Just decades of endless negotiation just doing barely enough to keep the JRP happy of which two and a half members are EU sympathetic anyway. The UK can never diverge because we'd leave NI behind and we get sucked into endless financial commitments for less in return. The £39 Billion is not dependent on an FTA being agreed. The EU start to get that from March next year come what may. Free movement of people is very complicated and much depends on the "end of the transition" period which includes any extension. |
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Post by M on Nov 16, 2018 14:53:33 GMT
Good question now to me this total capitulation by the UK seems to be retaining the benefits of customs union membership and free single market access for the period of transition which to me seems quite close to effective free EU membership, now a year or 18 months of that is fine with me and also another reason why I can't see the EU would want the backstop anymore than us so lets crack on with the Free Trade Agreement and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed thats the EU mantra so it still applies I assume, We are being told that "no deal" is a non starter, and Labour seem to be offering no Brexit at all, so I guess I am wondering what kind of Brexit people can live with? I have slated this deal, too, but I can't see any real alternatives being offered by the Opposition that honour the referendum result any more. It's not a GE election though so they don't have to offer anything at this time except opposition and to challenge them where they see fit. Reality is though they don't even need to offer much opposition because the government is perfectly doing their job for them by cannibalising themselves with the biggest Brexit cheerleaders being to blame. I really don't think it matters anyway. The fear that is being stoked by the governments inability to conduct negotiations with themselves (never mind the EU) is making another referendum almost impossible not to happen. If May wanted to sabotage Brexit, she'll get a gold star for her efforts. I think we are closing in on the end game as she said, but the end game is it won't happen now and they have practically handed power to the opposition for many years to come as it'll take them some time to recover from this I feel. |
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Post by rogerjonesisgod on Nov 16, 2018 14:55:08 GMT
They aren't interested in the referendum. They have openly stated they want a GE in a bid to take power. I just watched last night's Question Time from Milford Haven. Dimbleby had a hard time in getting anything out of Barry Gardiner about Brexit. That's why they want a "People's Vote", because they can't negotiate a deal that honours Brexit, even if they wanted to. It's a cop out. At least the Liberal Democrats have been honest about wanting to stay in. Shakribati has been all over the BBC today saying very clearly they want a customs union and 100% access to the single market. Remain. |
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Post by followyoudown on Nov 16, 2018 14:56:50 GMT
Good question now to me this total capitulation by the UK seems to be retaining the benefits of customs union membership and free single market access for the period of transition which to me seems quite close to effective free EU membership, now a year or 18 months of that is fine with me and also another reason why I can't see the EU would want the backstop anymore than us so lets crack on with the Free Trade Agreement and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed thats the EU mantra so it still applies I assume, We are being told that "no deal" is a non starter, and Labour seem to be offering no Brexit at all, so I guess I am wondering what kind of Brexit people can live with? I have slated this deal, too, but I can't see any real alternatives being offered by the Opposition that honour the referendum result any more. Labour are trying to keep hold of their brexit heartlands and the youth attracted to offers of free unicorns, they have no interest in being the government pre brexit as they would have to take the splinters out of their arse and take a position, that they will oppose this deal actually which pretty much meets all their bollocks tests except being better than EU membership or whatever the phrase is (the EU have stated from the start this could never be allowed to happen) tells you everything about them. For me the entire argument seems to be about what happens in the event that we don't have a new trade deal agreed at the end of the next two years transition period while I understand the concerns about this to me it seems a bit like going in into payrise negotiations but first wanting to clarify your redundancy pay off. From everything I understand nothing is agreed until all is agreed so we can still walk away if the trade deal is not too our liking. |
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Post by trickydicky73 on Nov 16, 2018 14:58:34 GMT
We are being told that "no deal" is a non starter, and Labour seem to be offering no Brexit at all, so I guess I am wondering what kind of Brexit people can live with? I have slated this deal, too, but I can't see any real alternatives being offered by the Opposition that honour the referendum result any more. It's not a GE election though so they don't have to offer anything at this time except opposition and to challenge them where they see fit. Reality is though they don't even need to offer much opposition because the government is perfectly doing their job for them by cannibalising themselves with the biggest Brexit cheerleaders being to blame. I really don't think it matters anyway. The fear that is being stoked by the governments inability to conduct negotiations with themselves (never mind the EU) is making another referendum almost impossible not to happen. If May wanted to sabotage Brexit, she'll get a gold star for her efforts. I think we are closing in on the end game as she said, but the end game is it won't happen now and they have practically handed power to the opposition for many years to come as it'll take them some time to recover from this I feel. I think the idea has been to sabotage Brexit all along. They have done a cracking job. |
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sharpy
Academy Starlet
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Post by sharpy on Nov 16, 2018 15:03:25 GMT
I just watched last night's Question Time from Milford Haven. Dimbleby had a hard time in getting anything out of Barry Gardiner about Brexit. That's why they want a "People's Vote", because they can't negotiate a deal that honours Brexit, even if they wanted to. It's a cop out. At least the Liberal Democrats have been honest about wanting to stay in. Shakribati has been all over the BBC today saying very clearly they want a customs union and 100% access to the single market. Remain. Therein lies the current situation within the labour party, the right hand knows not what the left hand doeth. |
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Nov 16, 2018 15:03:51 GMT
Good question now to me this total capitulation by the UK seems to be retaining the benefits of customs union membership and free single market access for the period of transition which to me seems quite close to effective free EU membership, now a year or 18 months of that is fine with me and also another reason why I can't see the EU would want the backstop anymore than us so lets crack on with the Free Trade Agreement and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed thats the EU mantra so it still applies I assume, We are being told that "no deal" is a non starter, and Labour seem to be offering no Brexit at all, so I guess I am wondering what kind of Brexit people can live with? I have slated this deal, too, but I can't see any real alternatives being offered by the Opposition that honour the referendum result any more. It could change by the minute, but my view, as of now, is that the deal will be rejected by Parliament, One way or another ( resignation, or vote of no confidence, or May own ' going to her party' for backing) May leaves office....replaced by someone who is not one of the main contenders ( a unity candidate), then ( or contemporaneous)...no point in trying to negotiate a different deal( because the EU won't...."your problem").......So a great frenzy stirred up about Cliff(y) edges and disaster....so Parliament agrees ( with then agreement from the EU) to extend Article 50......then a decision either to prepare properly for no deal( otherwise known as BREXIT) or agitation for a third Referendum preferably with an option to Remain and no option for true BREXIT ( at the very least split the vote between this deal and no deal). Even before the Referendum I'd said that this is the greatest decision since 1939 ( and possibly the 1945 election......I do honestly believe that there WILL be as much damage inflicted upon Britain as possible should we achieve anything resembling Leave.... designed to prove Remainers and the EU to be correct. In one sense the future of the country is at stake just as during the second world war. I would add that May's deal is so close to Remain that part of the purpose of it is to allow us to rejoin say 5 years down the line, when we have come to our senses. Of course I don't think that the relationship with Europe will be the same ever again.... issues such as opt outs, rebates and the single currency are all on the table |
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Post by followyoudown on Nov 16, 2018 15:04:58 GMT
Good question now to me this total capitulation by the UK seems to be retaining the benefits of customs union membership and free single market access for the period of transition which to me seems quite close to effective free EU membership, now a year or 18 months of that is fine with me and also another reason why I can't see the EU would want the backstop anymore than us so lets crack on with the Free Trade Agreement and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed thats the EU mantra so it still applies I assume, No. The Withdrawal agreement is International Law binding future UK Governments. Within the WA are the 3 items; Citizens rights, Irish border and financial payment. Once past 29th March 2019 the idea that an FTA can be agreed and implemented by 31st December 2020 is supposedly 'optimistic' so any further negotiating period comes in two forms. 1) Extend the so called transition period beyond 2020. 2) Trigger the 'backstop'. Applying for either of these is only allowed once. I say apply because the UK can either choose to open negotiations into extending the transition period or choose to open negotiations into triggering the backstop. That is the only unilateral choice the UK has. Extending the transition period comes with most of responsibilities of being in the EU customs union, single market, freedom of movement etc, etc and paying the usual EU contributions. Some contributions will not be paid as some responsibilities stop after 2020 BUT the rebate also stops so the pay-to-play extension period is a more expensive place per day then where we are now. The UK also risks being involved with the next EU 7 yearly financial budget cycle that kicks in after 2020. The length of the extension could be up to 2099. Triggering the backstop commits the whole UK to be in a 'customs area' until the FTA is completed. The UK can change certain domestic rules within this 'customs area' but Northern Ireland can't. So politically no PM would actually change anything because this would see NI continue to follow the EU's rules whilst the rest of the UK diverges. This backstop continues until the FTA (including the Irish border) satisfies both parties. The the FTA is implemented and the backstops ceases and can't be revived. If at any point during this backstop the UK think that an agreement on an FTA will never be reached they can ask for a 'Joint Review Panel' to assess the progress so far. That JRP is made up of 5 members, 2 appointed by the EU, 2 appointed by the UK and 1 which they both agree to appoint. It would up to the UK to convince the JRP that the EU are not acting in good faith and we'd like to leave the negotiations. If the JRP agreed then I assume we'd walk away with anything agreed in place and whatever wasn't agreed as outstanding and then coming under WTO or the relevant International body but maybe not and if there couldn't be 100% agreement over an FTA then there was nothing. So Brexiteers argue that it's easiest thing in the world for the EU to not agree to an extension period leaving the UK with only the backstop option and then never agreeing an FTA. Just decades of endless negotiation just doing barely enough to keep the JRP happy of which two and a half members are EU sympathetic anyway. The UK can never diverge because we'd leave NI behind and we get sucked into endless financial commitments for less in return. The £39 Billion is not dependent on an FTA being agreed. The EU start to get that from March next year come what may. Free movement of people is very complicated and much depends on the "end of the transition" period which includes any extension. Yeah I have heard some of these arguments but there is also a good faith clause so if the EU drags it all out they invalidate the agreement, any agreement can be cancelled whatever law it is written under. |
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Post by trickydicky73 on Nov 16, 2018 15:06:45 GMT
I wonder if this gobshite ruining interviews on Sky was a Brexiteer, would he be allowed to?
I very much doubt it, I am sure some public order offence would come into play.
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Post by M on Nov 16, 2018 15:11:52 GMT
Shakribati has been all over the BBC today saying very clearly they want a customs union and 100% access to the single market. Remain. Therein lies the current situation within the labour party, the right hand knows not what the left hand doeth. But they don't need to to adopt a position. They've largely avoided committing to a position because they don't need to. Why adopt a position and then be the fall guys for it not happening. Apparently from what I read there is a near 50/50 split in the Tory party about Brexit so I don't think it matters what deal is put forward, they wouldn't get anywhere near enough of their own party to support it before even taking it to the house. Strong and stable leadership and all that. Still think May will fight any challenge off though just because she's probably the best of a bad bunch there and any aspiring young leader would probably want to avoid coming in to this shit storm. |
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Post by Davef on Nov 16, 2018 15:17:08 GMT
I wonder if this gobshite ruining interviews on Sky was a Brexiteer, would he be allowed to? I very much doubt it, I am sure some public order offence would come into play. Saw something about this on Twitter the other day. Apparently, he's protesting on College Green and he's perfectly allowed to do so by law. He'd be arrested if he was using a loudspeaker though! |
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sharpy
Academy Starlet
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Post by sharpy on Nov 16, 2018 15:23:14 GMT
Therein lies the current situation within the labour party, the right hand knows not what the left hand doeth. But they don't need to to adopt a position. They've largely avoided committing to a position because they don't need to. Why adopt a position and then be the fall guys for it not happening. Apparently from what I read there is a near 50/50 split in the Tory party about Brexit so I don't think it matters what deal is put forward, they wouldn't get anywhere near enough of their own party to support it before even taking it to the house. Strong and stable leadership and all that. Still think May will fight any challenge off though just because she's probably the best of a bad bunch there and any aspiring young leader would probably want to avoid coming in to this shit storm. Totally agree. But would`nt you think that perhaps they would all sing the same tune ?. You could`nt play a game of snap with their vocal vision of thier Brexit strategy could you. |
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Post by trickydicky73 on Nov 16, 2018 15:25:55 GMT
We are being told that "no deal" is a non starter, and Labour seem to be offering no Brexit at all, so I guess I am wondering what kind of Brexit people can live with? I have slated this deal, too, but I can't see any real alternatives being offered by the Opposition that honour the referendum result any more. It could change by the minute, but my view, as of now, is that the deal will be rejected by Parliament, One way or another ( resignation, or vote of no confidence, or May own ' going to her party' for backing) May leaves office....replaced by someone who is not one of the main contenders ( a unity candidate), then ( or contemporaneous)...no point in trying to negotiate a different deal( because the EU won't...."your problem").......So a great frenzy stirred up about Cliff(y) edges and disaster....so Parliament agrees ( with then agreement from the EU) to extend Article 50......then a decision either to prepare properly for no deal( otherwise known as BREXIT) or agitation for a third Referendum preferably with an option to Remain and no option for true BREXIT ( at the very least split the vote between this deal and no deal). Even before the Referendum I'd said that this is the greatest decision since 1939 ( and possibly the 1945 election......I do honestly believe that there WILL be as much damage inflicted upon Britain as possible should we achieve anything resembling Leave.... designed to prove Remainers and the EU to be correct. In one sense the future of the country is at stake just as during the second world war. I would add that May's deal is so close to Remain that part of the purpose of it is to allow us to rejoin say 5 years down the line, when we have come to our senses. Of course I don't think that the relationship with Europe will be the same ever again.... issues such as opt outs, rebates and the single currency are all on the table What an utter stitch up this has been. I am totally against a People's Vote, so much so that I am starting to want any form of Brexit to prevent the likes of Lineker and Campbell getting their way! Who was it from the EU who said that a Canada style deal had always been available? What happened to that? |
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Post by trickydicky73 on Nov 16, 2018 15:27:29 GMT
I wonder if this gobshite ruining interviews on Sky was a Brexiteer, would he be allowed to? I very much doubt it, I am sure some public order offence would come into play. Saw something about this on Twitter the other day. Apparently, he's protesting on College Green and he's perfectly allowed to do so by law. He'd be arrested if he was using a loudspeaker though! Fucking hell fire, isn't he? I couldn't listen to that all day! |
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Why does a trading organisation with no foreign policy need an army ? The aim is very clear to create an organisation that is impossible to leave. 
