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Post by oggyoggy on Sept 20, 2022 16:27:16 GMT
What is the projected economic loss and the number of jobs which are anticipated to be lost as result of these casualties Mr. Coke, I can't remember what vote leave suggested they would be? Unemployement is at its lowest level since 1974 when we joined the EEC. tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rateThere are over a million job vacancies. There has never been a better time to get a job or change jobs. Brexit promised to take back control of immigration from the EU and stop freedom of movement. There is still substantial immigration but now it is for people to come and do jobs that need filling because there are not enough UK workers don't want to do them. At 29.7 million there are more people on payroll jobs today than at any time in UK history. www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2022If our economy is doing as well as you say, and brexit is such a success, why are our lowest earners 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024? In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. Did the other nations not go through the pandemic? Are they not suffering from the energy crisis? Those are the excuses brexiteers use to justify their beloved tory government and their beloved brexit. Our rich are doing well. Our top 3% of earners take home £84k and are just behind Germans and Norwegians. Here’s the source of the above: www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Sept 20, 2022 17:05:46 GMT
If our economy is doing as well as you say, and brexit is such a success, why are our lowest earners 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024? In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. Did the other nations not go through the pandemic? Are they not suffering from the energy crisis? Those are the excuses brexiteers use to justify their beloved tory government and their beloved brexit. Our rich are doing well. Our top 3% of earners take home £84k and are just behind Germans and Norwegians. Here’s the source of the above: www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945Yes, but I think you'll find that if you 'believe' a bit more and sprinkle a bit of magic Brexit dust (also known as 'powdered Coke') those projections change quite dramatically in the UK's favour.
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Post by yeokel on Sept 20, 2022 17:21:29 GMT
If our economy is doing as well as you say, and brexit is such a success, why are our lowest earners 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024? In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. Did the other nations not go through the pandemic? Are they not suffering from the energy crisis? Those are the excuses brexiteers use to justify their beloved tory government and their beloved brexit. Our rich are doing well. Our top 3% of earners take home £84k and are just behind Germans and Norwegians. Here’s the source of the above: www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945"Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024?" Could you define what you mean by "richer" in the above?
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Sept 20, 2022 17:34:02 GMT
If our economy is doing as well as you say, and brexit is such a success, why are our lowest earners 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024? In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. Did the other nations not go through the pandemic? Are they not suffering from the energy crisis? Those are the excuses brexiteers use to justify their beloved tory government and their beloved brexit. Our rich are doing well. Our top 3% of earners take home £84k and are just behind Germans and Norwegians. Here’s the source of the above: www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945Yes, but I think you'll find that if you 'believe' a bit more and sprinkle a bit of magic Brexit dust (also known as 'powdered Coke') those projections change quite dramatically in the UK's favour. Indeed. What usually happens is you become "absolutely confident that in [insert chosen year here] Britain will be way ahead of Europe in [insert chosen metric here]", whatever the evidence to the contrary so far.
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Post by toppercorner on Sept 20, 2022 18:30:33 GMT
What is the projected economic loss and the number of jobs which are anticipated to be lost as result of these casualties Mr. Coke, I can't remember what vote leave suggested they would be? Unemployement is at its lowest level since 1974 when we joined the EEC. tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rateThere are over a million job vacancies. There has never been a better time to get a job or change jobs. Brexit promised to take back control of immigration from the EU and stop freedom of movement. There is still substantial immigration but now it is for people to come and do jobs that need filling because there are not enough UK workers don't want to do them. At 29.7 million there are more people on payroll jobs today than at any time in UK history. www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/september2022i would suggest this is because people now have 2/3 or even 4 jobs just trying to keep a roof over their head. The pound falling because of Brexit means all the hard work in extra jobs is worth less and less money. As someone else mentioned, there is now the zero hours gig economy, where even an extra 2 hours (i think?) per week adds to the employment figures, despite the 'employee' earning basically nothing. We also have a proliferation of companies bought out by foreign investors where our money now flows offshore, and so to compensate for the lack of tax in the national coffers, we the public, have to make it up. The Tories have bought in 70 tax raises (again, i think) since they've been in power, and it's at its highest since the second world war. So i believe the figures are skewed and not a true reflection on what is actually happening.
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Post by oggyoggy on Sept 20, 2022 18:30:44 GMT
If our economy is doing as well as you say, and brexit is such a success, why are our lowest earners 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024? In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent. Did the other nations not go through the pandemic? Are they not suffering from the energy crisis? Those are the excuses brexiteers use to justify their beloved tory government and their beloved brexit. Our rich are doing well. Our top 3% of earners take home £84k and are just behind Germans and Norwegians. Here’s the source of the above: www.ft.com/content/ef265420-45e8-497b-b308-c951baa68945"Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024?" Could you define what you mean by "richer" in the above? Higher average income (I now cannot access the article to double check, but I am fairly certain it was average household income as that is what the whole article was about)
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Post by yeokel on Sept 20, 2022 19:16:09 GMT
"Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade? Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024?" Could you define what you mean by "richer" in the above? Higher average income (I now cannot access the article to double check, but I am fairly certain it was average household income as that is what the whole article was about) Well that seems to be a very narrow definition of “rich” to me. If we allow inflation to run rampant and increase wages to the same extent I’m confident we could overtake them again. But that wouldn’t make us rich would it.
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Post by mrcoke on Sept 20, 2022 20:33:03 GMT
Some time ago I responded to the assertion that Brexit was responsible for the shortage of workers and large drop in the number of EU citizens coming to the UK to work, by pointing out that for some time wages in Eastern Europe have been increasing at a huge rate. Consequently it was not necessarily the case that those people had gone home from the UK to be with their families would return to the UK if there are now much higher wages in their own country. This link shows Wage growth: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growth?continent=europeWhether the increase in wages are "worth it" depends on inflation and it is also the case that inflation is very high in Eastern Europe: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe
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Post by Paul Spencer on Sept 20, 2022 21:18:22 GMT
Some time ago I responded to the assertion that Brexit was responsible for the shortage of workers and large drop in the number of EU citizens coming to the UK to work, by pointing out that for some time wages in Eastern Europe have been increasing at a huge rate. Consequently it was not necessarily the case that those people had gone home from the UK to be with their families would return to the UK if there are now much higher wages in their own country. This link shows Wage growth: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growth?continent=europeWhether the increase in wages are "worth it" depends on inflation and it is also the case that inflation is very high in Eastern Europe: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe
Mr. Coke, the previous post that you made prior to this one, resulted in half a dozen other people challenging/querying your claim, yet you have ignored every single one of them.
Why is that?
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Post by neworleanstokie on Sept 20, 2022 23:28:41 GMT
wow.. this conversation has really shifted from the day after the vote! The comments regarding a US/UK trade deal are spot on - it ain't happening due to the Irish lobby here in the US. Nothing to do with Biden or Trump.
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Post by PotteringThrough on Sept 21, 2022 10:42:27 GMT
wow.. this conversation has really shifted from the day after the vote! The comments regarding a US/UK trade deal are spot on - it ain't happening due to the Irish lobby here in the US. Nothing to do with Biden or Trump. But what about our “special” relationship… All those trade deals lined up, just waiting to be signed…
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Post by oggyoggy on Sept 21, 2022 10:46:42 GMT
Some time ago I responded to the assertion that Brexit was responsible for the shortage of workers and large drop in the number of EU citizens coming to the UK to work, by pointing out that for some time wages in Eastern Europe have been increasing at a huge rate. Consequently it was not necessarily the case that those people had gone home from the UK to be with their families would return to the UK if there are now much higher wages in their own country. This link shows Wage growth: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growth?continent=europeWhether the increase in wages are "worth it" depends on inflation and it is also the case that inflation is very high in Eastern Europe: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeIf the FT article I posted is right, on current trends by the end of the decade the average Poland household will have higher income than the average Brit household, and Slovenia will overtake us by 2024. Perhaps Poland will be shipping in Brits for cheap labour in the 2030s…. But hooray for Brexit! What a fantastic impact it is having us all on a daily basis! So worth it!
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Post by foster on Sept 21, 2022 10:47:35 GMT
Some time ago I responded to the assertion that Brexit was responsible for the shortage of workers and large drop in the number of EU citizens coming to the UK to work, by pointing out that for some time wages in Eastern Europe have been increasing at a huge rate. Consequently it was not necessarily the case that those people had gone home from the UK to be with their families would return to the UK if there are now much higher wages in their own country. This link shows Wage growth: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growth?continent=europeWhether the increase in wages are "worth it" depends on inflation and it is also the case that inflation is very high in Eastern Europe: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeMr. Coke, the previous post that you made prior to this one, resulted in half a dozen other people challenging/querying your claim, yet you have ignored every single one of them. Why is that?
If they look back at the Brexit thread, page 1453, Paragraph C, sub-section 2.6, chapter 58, point 4b, article 6.11 of refutation G23 and conclusion 9.6f they'll find what they're no doubt looking for.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Sept 21, 2022 11:47:03 GMT
Some time ago I responded to the assertion that Brexit was responsible for the shortage of workers and large drop in the number of EU citizens coming to the UK to work, by pointing out that for some time wages in Eastern Europe have been increasing at a huge rate. Consequently it was not necessarily the case that those people had gone home from the UK to be with their families would return to the UK if there are now much higher wages in their own country. This link shows Wage growth: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growth?continent=europeWhether the increase in wages are "worth it" depends on inflation and it is also the case that inflation is very high in Eastern Europe: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeMr. Coke, the previous post that you made prior to this one, resulted in half a dozen other people challenging/querying your claim, yet you have ignored every single one of them. Why is that?
Too busy advising his mate Charles on the environment these days. Did he ever tell you about the time he met him?🥱
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Post by wannabee on Sept 22, 2022 15:45:57 GMT
Remind me bayern, At what point on that graph did the UK join the EU? The is no doubt that the vote to leave the EU caused a drop in the value of the £, but the most recent drop has nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with war in Ukraine and the flight of bankers to the US$, which has increased in value against almost all currencies and energy is traded in US$. The European Central Bank has just raised interest rates by the highest amount ever in its history to prop up the €, due to: www.cbsnews.com/news/euro-dollar-parity-first-time-in-20-years/I notice you have been in slumber mode vis a vis this MB for a while, I expect you have more important things to do. You showed your concern for Euro weakness to US$ which is not unusual during times of war but with Sterling still13% weaker to Euro since Brexit You seemed alarmed that ECB raised Interest Rates from zero to 0.75% You must be Frantic therefore that Bank of England has raised Interest Rates for the 7th time in a row to 2.25% while conceding UK may already be in recession www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62991376.ampThis rise will further dampen Industries enthusiasm for Investment and therefore productivity/growth Not to mention Government Borrowing Costs and further reduce already weak Inward Investment I shall be interested in your take on things in due course
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Post by mrcoke on Sept 22, 2022 23:07:47 GMT
Some time ago I responded to the assertion that Brexit was responsible for the shortage of workers and large drop in the number of EU citizens coming to the UK to work, by pointing out that for some time wages in Eastern Europe have been increasing at a huge rate. Consequently it was not necessarily the case that those people had gone home from the UK to be with their families would return to the UK if there are now much higher wages in their own country. This link shows Wage growth: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growth?continent=europeWhether the increase in wages are "worth it" depends on inflation and it is also the case that inflation is very high in Eastern Europe: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europe
Mr. Coke, the previous post that you made prior to this one, resulted in half a dozen other people challenging/querying your claim, yet you have ignored every single one of them.
Why is that?
My previous post ( oatcakefanzine.proboards.com/thread/269068/brexit?page=1496&scrollTo=7593415 ) was essentially a statement of facts. The only claim I made was " There has never been a better time to get a job or change jobs" which I don't think anyone has queried. My replies to the other responses are as follows: (I have highlighted the original comment in blue.) What is the projected economic loss and the number of jobs which are anticipated to be lost as result of these casualties Mr. Coke, I can't remember what vote leave suggested they would be?
I assumed this was a rhetorical question. There was clearly no projected economic or job losses from Brexit, but it clearly the case that there are bound to be adverse impacts from leaving the customs union. Naturally those politicians arguing for Brexit would concentrate on the advantages of leaving the EU, which in economic terms are obviously longer term. Some people did very well out of EU membership and naturally they will lose out from the UK leaving. France and Germany particularly will both have to pick up the burden that the UK bore financially supporting the EU. So in other words - don't worry if your family business goes tits up having been strangled by post Brexit bureaucracy......... you can always go and work in an Amazon warehouse.
That is a rather blunt way of putting it but yes. It is a harsh fact of life that businesses come and go as circumstances changed. I have worked in three factories that are now shut down and demolished. When I started working in the steel industry there were over 300,000 people employed in steel in the UK; today there are just 10% of that. That's the economic facts of life. The reality is employers are crying out for good people at the moment and there is every opportunity for someone to improve their income. Millions of people have lost their jobs while the UK was a member of the EU. Isnt the number of people looking for work at an all time low?.
Due to post Covid illness, lack of EU staff and people retiring early we have a massive imbalance between demand for workers and vacancies.This is true but nothing to do with Brexit. It is a common issue across the world. The OECD has stated that across its 38 member countries, 20 million fewer people are working now compared to before the pandemic. Half of all German companies are struggling to find skilled workers, an all time high. Germany wants to attract 400,000 skilled workers from abroad each year. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-02/german-labor-shortages-menace-half-of-companies-across-economyIt is a fallacy to suppose that if the UK had remained in the EU that the sort of numbers of EU citizens that came to the UK before the pandemic would have continued, or resumed after the pandemic. Many east European countries are paying a lot more to keep their workers at home. Labour shortages are being felt all over Europe not just the UK: www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/labour-shortages-felt-all-over-europe/That quantity of vacancies is basically an unhealthy measure for the economy and growth. Where will these workers come from?
Good question. Firstly, I don't think a worker shortage is basically unhealthy, it has benefits for workers. Worker shortage forced employers to be competitive in hiring people and raises wages. It gives trade unions greater bargaining power and those unscrupulous employers who hire and fire on low wages are far less able to function. Secondly, one of the major British failings is productivity. The UK productivity has consistently failed to keep pace with our peers like Germany, France, and US, and many other smaller west European countries. This is due to short term investment and because employers have always had the option of cheap labour to turn to. Blair opened our doors to eastern European citizens unlike Germany and France who regulated their immigration better. Labour shortage will force UK businesses to modernise and get more efficient and it is starting to happen. Sky reported in July from a survey of 670 companies that one in three firms are investigating investment in robotics due to staffing shortages. As to where workers will come from, the answer is they are still coming. Immigration is at an all time high. 1.1 million visas were granted for people to come and live in the UK, a rise of more than half a million when compared with the year to June 2019 – before the pandemic. About a third of those come to work. Almost half come to study and have the right to stay and work at least temporarily. www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/08/25/immigration-at-all-time-record-level-with-record-1-1-million-visas-issued-to-come-and-live-in-the-uk#:~:text=There%20were%20122%2C266%20decisions%20on,22%25%20more%20than%20in%202019 Part of the reason for increased visas is that before Brexit EU citizens did not need visas. Now all immigrants are treated the same and only allowed to come to work to fill jobs where there are shortages. In the year ending June 2022, Indian nationals received nearly 103,000 work visas (which includes skilled and seasonal workers) Indian nationals continue to be the top nationality granted Skilled Worker visas, accounting for 46% of all skilled work visas granted globally. Indian nationals also accounted for the highest proportion (28%) of Visitor visas granted. More than 258,000 Indian nationals received visit visas in the year ending June 2022 boosting the UK tourist industry. Just wondering what the impact of zero hour contracts has had on employment stats?
Looking at your 2nd link it looks like the total hours worked is 11 million down from a year earlier. If our economy is doing as well as you say, and Brexit is such a success, why are our lowest earners 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia?
I am unable to answer the first question and don't think it is a Brexit issue. Employment law has not changed since leaving the EU, but all rolled over into UK law. Employment statistics are complex. Whilst the number of payroll employees is at record levels this year, the actual hours worked is not as high because people are either working less overtime, or job sharing, or working part-time, etc. For example the NHS employment statistics for January state there are 1,220,469 full time equivalent employees, but the actual number of payroll employees is 1.370,991. A lot of employees are not working full time, which something that is being actively encouraged to reduce the loss of employees leaving due to stress, burnout, finding alternative employment, etc. There is active encouragement to get employees to find the best work /leisure lifestyle that suits them. Many manufacturing businesses are not working at full capacity due to post pandemic shortages such as microchips, and building materials. I expect energy costs will curtail the working hours of many businesses this winter. Slovenia wages are much lower than the UK according to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wagesSlovenia 2008 Euros per month (July 22) = £404 per week UK £613 per week (July 22) Slovenia minimum wage is lower than the UK according to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/minimum-wagesSlovenia 1074 Euros per month (Sept 22) = £6.18 per hour UK £9.50 per hour (Apr 22) On April 1 2022, the UK national living wage increased to £9.50 per hour for people aged 23 and above, a 6.6 per cent rise on the previous rate. Whilst this was the largest ever increase, in reality of course, it was a drop in living standard due to high inflation. The UK has the 8th highest minimum wage in the world. According to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growthSlovenia average wage increases (June 22) are 2.89% UK average wage increases (July 22) 5.5% In terms of real value of increased wages, the cost of living increase needs to be considered. According to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeSlovenia inflation (Aug 22) was 11% UK inflation (Aug 22) was 9.9% This link supports the above links: take-profit.org/en/statistics/wages/slovenia/#:~:text=Average%20Wages%20in%20Slovenia%20increased,minimum%20was%201097%20EUR%2FMonth In the light of the above I struggle to see how UK lowest earners are 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia. I stand to be corrected. Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade?
Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024?
Repeating the above exercise for Poland: Poland's average wage is 6156 PLN/month (June 22) = £296 per week (c.f. UK £613 pw) Poland's minimum wage is 642 Euros per month (Sep 22) = £3.70 per hour (c.f. UK £9.50 ph) Poland's wage growth is 12.7% (Aug 22) significantly higher than the UK's 5.5% (July 22) Poland's inflation rate is 16.1% (Sep 22) (c.f. UK 9.9%) This link supports the above links: take-profit.org/en/statistics/wages/poland/#:~:text=What%20is%20average%20wage%20in,minimum%20was%201008%20PLN%2FMonth Poland will have to sustain their high wage inflation rate to catch up with UK wages by 2030, but whether it will be worth much given their inflation rate is debatable. The Slovenia figures are quoted above; somehow I doubt the average household will be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024. In fact I would suggest the opposite will actually happen in the long term. It is a fact that since the introduction of the Euro the EU has become a two speed economy with the original core member nations doing very well, whereas the remoter nations such as the Mediterranean countries economies doing not as well as reflected in the rates of unemployment and growth of GDP per head. The eastern countries are currently catching up as a result of huge regional aid, as did Spain for example in the past, but I believe they will not do as well in the future. (Apologies for digressing and engaging in a prediction, something I normally try and avoid!) In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent.
Did the other nations not go through the pandemic? Are they not suffering from the energy crisis? Those are the excuses brexiteers use to justify their beloved tory government and their beloved brexit.
Our rich are doing well. Our top 3% of earners take home £84k and are just behind Germans and Norwegians.
I am not surprised at the first statement. It goes to show how beneficial being in the EU was for the UK! Unless of course you believe all that "ballooning" has occurred in the last three years. In 2007 the UK balance of trade balance deficit with the EU was £35 billion. By 2019 that had increased to a massive deficit of £77 billion. The UK had become the EU's "Treasure Island" since the Maastricht Treaty. The UK was getting relatively poorer to the EU every year we were a member, handing the wealth earned by trade with the rest of the world to the EU countries. www.statista.com/statistics/551585/united-kingdom-uk-trade-balance-with-eu/I assume the questions posed in the second paragraph are rhetorical. The Tory government is not beloved by me. In fact just the opposite, they have made a huge mess of Brexit. May dithered and procrastinated and tried to compromise with the EU, something the EU don't do. Then Johnson went at it like a bull at a gate to rush things through and damn the consequences. What I don't fully understand is those that oppose Brexit are full of criticism of the government over how they handle matters like the pandemic, energy crisis, and a host of other issues, but then blame Brexit for exactly the same problems that other countries are suffering such as labour shortages, inflation, rising interest rates, etc. I covered labour shortages above; in the case of inflation Belgium, Spain, Greece, The Netherlands have all got higher inflation than the UK. France, Germany, and Italy have lower inflation that the UK because their governments have taken far more extensive action then the Tories. Inflation in the UK is caused by the war and made worse by government mismanagement as was the case with the pandemic. The UK is entering recession which the US has been experiencing all year. China had zero growth in the last quarter. We are all facing a world wide issue. When it comes to Brexit politicians, put me in the same camp as Benn, Shaw, Castle, and Skinner not the Tories. Looks like after this Friday's budget the UK rich are going to get richer and catch up with the Germans and Norwegians (who actually are not in the EU). Mr. Coke, the previous post that you made prior to this one, resulted in half a dozen other people challenging/querying your claim, yet you have ignored every single one of them.
Why is that?
As I have repeatedly posted on this MB, I do have many other interests, hobbies, and duties outside of participating on Oatcake. At the moment a religious organization I am treasurer of has an important function coming up. I trust I have responded sufficiently to your and other persons posts.
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Post by wannabee on Sept 23, 2022 1:05:41 GMT
Mr. Coke, the previous post that you made prior to this one, resulted in half a dozen other people challenging/querying your claim, yet you have ignored every single one of them.
Why is that?
My previous post ( oatcakefanzine.proboards.com/thread/269068/brexit?page=1496&scrollTo=7593415 ) was essentially a statement of facts. The only claim I made was " There has never been a better time to get a job or change jobs" which I don't think anyone has queried. My replies to the other responses are as follows: (I have highlighted the original comment in blue.) What is the projected economic loss and the number of jobs which are anticipated to be lost as result of these casualties Mr. Coke, I can't remember what vote leave suggested they would be?
I assumed this was a rhetorical question. There was clearly no projected economic or job losses from Brexit, but it clearly the case that there are bound to be adverse impacts from leaving the customs union. Naturally those politicians arguing for Brexit would concentrate on the advantages of leaving the EU, which in economic terms are obviously longer term. Some people did very well out of EU membership and naturally they will lose out from the UK leaving. France and Germany particularly will both have to pick up the burden that the UK bore financially supporting the EU. So in other words - don't worry if your family business goes tits up having been strangled by post Brexit bureaucracy......... you can always go and work in an Amazon warehouse.
That is a rather blunt way of putting it but yes. It is a harsh fact of life that businesses come and go as circumstances changed. I have worked in three factories that are now shut down and demolished. When I started working in the steel industry there were over 300,000 people employed in steel in the UK; today there are just 10% of that. That's the economic facts of life. The reality is employers are crying out for good people at the moment and there is every opportunity for someone to improve their income. Millions of people have lost their jobs while the UK was a member of the EU. Isnt the number of people looking for work at an all time low?.
Due to post Covid illness, lack of EU staff and people retiring early we have a massive imbalance between demand for workers and vacancies.This is true but nothing to do with Brexit. It is a common issue across the world. The OECD has stated that across its 38 member countries, 20 million fewer people are working now compared to before the pandemic. Half of all German companies are struggling to find skilled workers, an all time high. Germany wants to attract 400,000 skilled workers from abroad each year. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-02/german-labor-shortages-menace-half-of-companies-across-economyIt is a fallacy to suppose that if the UK had remained in the EU that the sort of numbers of EU citizens that came to the UK before the pandemic would have continued, or resumed after the pandemic. Many east European countries are paying a lot more to keep their workers at home. Labour shortages are being felt all over Europe not just the UK: www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/labour-shortages-felt-all-over-europe/That quantity of vacancies is basically an unhealthy measure for the economy and growth. Where will these workers come from?
Good question. Firstly, I don't think a worker shortage is basically unhealthy, it has benefits for workers. Worker shortage forced employers to be competitive in hiring people and raises wages. It gives trade unions greater bargaining power and those unscrupulous employers who hire and fire on low wages are far less able to function. Secondly, one of the major British failings is productivity. The UK productivity has consistently failed to keep pace with our peers like Germany, France, and US, and many other smaller west European countries. This is due to short term investment and because employers have always had the option of cheap labour to turn to. Blair opened our doors to eastern European citizens unlike Germany and France who regulated their immigration better. Labour shortage will force UK businesses to modernise and get more efficient and it is starting to happen. Sky reported in July from a survey of 670 companies that one in three firms are investigating investment in robotics due to staffing shortages. As to where workers will come from, the answer is they are still coming. Immigration is at an all time high. 1.1 million visas were granted for people to come and live in the UK, a rise of more than half a million when compared with the year to June 2019 – before the pandemic. About a third of those come to work. Almost half come to study and have the right to stay and work at least temporarily. www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/08/25/immigration-at-all-time-record-level-with-record-1-1-million-visas-issued-to-come-and-live-in-the-uk#:~:text=There%20were%20122%2C266%20decisions%20on,22%25%20more%20than%20in%202019 Part of the reason for increased visas is that before Brexit EU citizens did not need visas. Now all immigrants are treated the same and only allowed to come to work to fill jobs where there are shortages. In the year ending June 2022, Indian nationals received nearly 103,000 work visas (which includes skilled and seasonal workers) Indian nationals continue to be the top nationality granted Skilled Worker visas, accounting for 46% of all skilled work visas granted globally. Indian nationals also accounted for the highest proportion (28%) of Visitor visas granted. More than 258,000 Indian nationals received visit visas in the year ending June 2022 boosting the UK tourist industry. Just wondering what the impact of zero hour contracts has had on employment stats?
Looking at your 2nd link it looks like the total hours worked is 11 million down from a year earlier. If our economy is doing as well as you say, and Brexit is such a success, why are our lowest earners 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia?
I am unable to answer the first question and don't think it is a Brexit issue. Employment law has not changed since leaving the EU, but all rolled over into UK law. Employment statistics are complex. Whilst the number of payroll employees is at record levels this year, the actual hours worked is not as high because people are either working less overtime, or job sharing, or working part-time, etc. For example the NHS employment statistics for January state there are 1,220,469 full time equivalent employees, but the actual number of payroll employees is 1.370,991. A lot of employees are not working full time, which something that is being actively encouraged to reduce the loss of employees leaving due to stress, burnout, finding alternative employment, etc. There is active encouragement to get employees to find the best work /leisure lifestyle that suits them. Many manufacturing businesses are not working at full capacity due to post pandemic shortages such as microchips, and building materials. I expect energy costs will curtail the working hours of many businesses this winter. Slovenia wages are much lower than the UK according to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wagesSlovenia 2008 Euros per month (July 22) = £404 per week UK £613 per week (July 22) Slovenia minimum wage is lower than the UK according to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/minimum-wagesSlovenia 1074 Euros per month (Sept 22) = £6.18 per hour UK £9.50 per hour (Apr 22) On April 1 2022, the UK national living wage increased to £9.50 per hour for people aged 23 and above, a 6.6 per cent rise on the previous rate. Whilst this was the largest ever increase, in reality of course, it was a drop in living standard due to high inflation. The UK has the 8th highest minimum wage in the world. According to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growthSlovenia average wage increases (June 22) are 2.89% UK average wage increases (July 22) 5.5% In terms of real value of increased wages, the cost of living increase needs to be considered. According to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeSlovenia inflation (Aug 22) was 11% UK inflation (Aug 22) was 9.9% This link supports the above links: take-profit.org/en/statistics/wages/slovenia/#:~:text=Average%20Wages%20in%20Slovenia%20increased,minimum%20was%201097%20EUR%2FMonth In the light of the above I struggle to see how UK lowest earners are 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia. I stand to be corrected. Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade?
Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024?
Repeating the above exercise for Poland: Poland's average wage is 6156 PLN/month (June 22) = £296 per week (c.f. UK £613 pw) Poland's minimum wage is 642 Euros per month (Sep 22) = £3.70 per hour (c.f. UK £9.50 ph) Poland's wage growth is 12.7% (Aug 22) significantly higher than the UK's 5.5% (July 22) Poland's inflation rate is 16.1% (Sep 22) (c.f. UK 9.9%) This link supports the above links: take-profit.org/en/statistics/wages/poland/#:~:text=What%20is%20average%20wage%20in,minimum%20was%201008%20PLN%2FMonth Poland will have to sustain their high wage inflation rate to catch up with UK wages by 2030, but whether it will be worth much given their inflation rate is debatable. The Slovenia figures are quoted above; somehow I doubt the average household will be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024. In fact I would suggest the opposite will actually happen in the long term. It is a fact that since the introduction of the Euro the EU has become a two speed economy with the original core member nations doing very well, whereas the remoter nations such as the Mediterranean countries economies doing not as well as reflected in the rates of unemployment and growth of GDP per head. The eastern countries are currently catching up as a result of huge regional aid, as did Spain for example in the past, but I believe they will not do as well in the future. (Apologies for digressing and engaging in a prediction, something I normally try and avoid!) In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent.
Did the other nations not go through the pandemic? Are they not suffering from the energy crisis? Those are the excuses brexiteers use to justify their beloved tory government and their beloved brexit.
Our rich are doing well. Our top 3% of earners take home £84k and are just behind Germans and Norwegians.
I am not surprised at the first statement. It goes to show how beneficial being in the EU was for the UK! Unless of course you believe all that "ballooning" has occurred in the last three years. In 2007 the UK balance of trade balance deficit with the EU was £35 billion. By 2019 that had increased to a massive deficit of £77 billion. The UK had become the EU's "Treasure Island" since the Maastricht Treaty. The UK was getting relatively poorer to the EU every year we were a member, handing the wealth earned by trade with the rest of the world to the EU countries. www.statista.com/statistics/551585/united-kingdom-uk-trade-balance-with-eu/I assume the questions posed in the second paragraph are rhetorical. The Tory government is not beloved by me. In fact just the opposite, they have made a huge mess of Brexit. May dithered and procrastinated and tried to compromise with the EU, something the EU don't do. Then Johnson went at it like a bull at a gate to rush things through and damn the consequences. What I don't fully understand is those that oppose Brexit are full of criticism of the government over how they handle matters like the pandemic, energy crisis, and a host of other issues, but then blame Brexit for exactly the same problems that other countries are suffering such as labour shortages, inflation, rising interest rates, etc. I covered labour shortages above; in the case of inflation Belgium, Spain, Greece, The Netherlands have all got higher inflation than the UK. France, Germany, and Italy have lower inflation that the UK because their governments have taken far more extensive action then the Tories. Inflation in the UK is caused by the war and made worse by government mismanagement as was the case with the pandemic. The UK is entering recession which the US has been experiencing all year. China had zero growth in the last quarter. We are all facing a world wide issue. When it comes to Brexit politicians, put me in the same camp as Benn, Shaw, Castle, and Skinner not the Tories. Looks like after this Friday's budget the UK rich are going to get richer and catch up with the Germans and Norwegians (who actually are not in the EU). Mr. Coke, the previous post that you made prior to this one, resulted in half a dozen other people challenging/querying your claim, yet you have ignored every single one of them.
Why is that?
As I have repeatedly posted on this MB, I do have many other interests, hobbies, and duties outside of participating on Oatcake. At the moment a religious organization I am treasurer of has an important function coming up. I trust I have responded sufficiently to your and other persons posts. OK I'll bite. The Post that you referenced and said no one queried. OK I'll query now. Your using the Old Johnsonian 3 Card Trick Nonsence which I've pulled you on a few times before You claimed that 29.7 million in payroll employment is the biggest in UK History it's a nonsense Statistic 32.72 million people were in work immediately prior to Covid Pandemic www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/january2019/pdf&ved=2ahUKEwipg6Lb0qn6AhU0oFwKHcVoDnoQFnoECBYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw236DJ6CgIv8TSzesKdbOePIn the post immediately above the one you referenced I refuted every single one of your incorrect claims. I can fully understand you have better priorities than being on this MB but there is a pattern with you. You make a series of incorrect claims pseudo backed up in a extremely long post. They are challenged you ignore then rince and repeat. Just stick to addressing the point being made preferable concisely
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Post by mrcoke on Sept 23, 2022 9:14:19 GMT
My previous post ( oatcakefanzine.proboards.com/thread/269068/brexit?page=1496&scrollTo=7593415 ) was essentially a statement of facts. The only claim I made was " There has never been a better time to get a job or change jobs" which I don't think anyone has queried. My replies to the other responses are as follows: (I have highlighted the original comment in blue.) What is the projected economic loss and the number of jobs which are anticipated to be lost as result of these casualties Mr. Coke, I can't remember what vote leave suggested they would be?
I assumed this was a rhetorical question. There was clearly no projected economic or job losses from Brexit, but it clearly the case that there are bound to be adverse impacts from leaving the customs union. Naturally those politicians arguing for Brexit would concentrate on the advantages of leaving the EU, which in economic terms are obviously longer term. Some people did very well out of EU membership and naturally they will lose out from the UK leaving. France and Germany particularly will both have to pick up the burden that the UK bore financially supporting the EU. So in other words - don't worry if your family business goes tits up having been strangled by post Brexit bureaucracy......... you can always go and work in an Amazon warehouse.
That is a rather blunt way of putting it but yes. It is a harsh fact of life that businesses come and go as circumstances changed. I have worked in three factories that are now shut down and demolished. When I started working in the steel industry there were over 300,000 people employed in steel in the UK; today there are just 10% of that. That's the economic facts of life. The reality is employers are crying out for good people at the moment and there is every opportunity for someone to improve their income. Millions of people have lost their jobs while the UK was a member of the EU. Isnt the number of people looking for work at an all time low?.
Due to post Covid illness, lack of EU staff and people retiring early we have a massive imbalance between demand for workers and vacancies.This is true but nothing to do with Brexit. It is a common issue across the world. The OECD has stated that across its 38 member countries, 20 million fewer people are working now compared to before the pandemic. Half of all German companies are struggling to find skilled workers, an all time high. Germany wants to attract 400,000 skilled workers from abroad each year. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-02/german-labor-shortages-menace-half-of-companies-across-economyIt is a fallacy to suppose that if the UK had remained in the EU that the sort of numbers of EU citizens that came to the UK before the pandemic would have continued, or resumed after the pandemic. Many east European countries are paying a lot more to keep their workers at home. Labour shortages are being felt all over Europe not just the UK: www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/labour-shortages-felt-all-over-europe/That quantity of vacancies is basically an unhealthy measure for the economy and growth. Where will these workers come from?
Good question. Firstly, I don't think a worker shortage is basically unhealthy, it has benefits for workers. Worker shortage forced employers to be competitive in hiring people and raises wages. It gives trade unions greater bargaining power and those unscrupulous employers who hire and fire on low wages are far less able to function. Secondly, one of the major British failings is productivity. The UK productivity has consistently failed to keep pace with our peers like Germany, France, and US, and many other smaller west European countries. This is due to short term investment and because employers have always had the option of cheap labour to turn to. Blair opened our doors to eastern European citizens unlike Germany and France who regulated their immigration better. Labour shortage will force UK businesses to modernise and get more efficient and it is starting to happen. Sky reported in July from a survey of 670 companies that one in three firms are investigating investment in robotics due to staffing shortages. As to where workers will come from, the answer is they are still coming. Immigration is at an all time high. 1.1 million visas were granted for people to come and live in the UK, a rise of more than half a million when compared with the year to June 2019 – before the pandemic. About a third of those come to work. Almost half come to study and have the right to stay and work at least temporarily. www.migrationwatchuk.org/news/2022/08/25/immigration-at-all-time-record-level-with-record-1-1-million-visas-issued-to-come-and-live-in-the-uk#:~:text=There%20were%20122%2C266%20decisions%20on,22%25%20more%20than%20in%202019 Part of the reason for increased visas is that before Brexit EU citizens did not need visas. Now all immigrants are treated the same and only allowed to come to work to fill jobs where there are shortages. In the year ending June 2022, Indian nationals received nearly 103,000 work visas (which includes skilled and seasonal workers) Indian nationals continue to be the top nationality granted Skilled Worker visas, accounting for 46% of all skilled work visas granted globally. Indian nationals also accounted for the highest proportion (28%) of Visitor visas granted. More than 258,000 Indian nationals received visit visas in the year ending June 2022 boosting the UK tourist industry. Just wondering what the impact of zero hour contracts has had on employment stats?
Looking at your 2nd link it looks like the total hours worked is 11 million down from a year earlier. If our economy is doing as well as you say, and Brexit is such a success, why are our lowest earners 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia?
I am unable to answer the first question and don't think it is a Brexit issue. Employment law has not changed since leaving the EU, but all rolled over into UK law. Employment statistics are complex. Whilst the number of payroll employees is at record levels this year, the actual hours worked is not as high because people are either working less overtime, or job sharing, or working part-time, etc. For example the NHS employment statistics for January state there are 1,220,469 full time equivalent employees, but the actual number of payroll employees is 1.370,991. A lot of employees are not working full time, which something that is being actively encouraged to reduce the loss of employees leaving due to stress, burnout, finding alternative employment, etc. There is active encouragement to get employees to find the best work /leisure lifestyle that suits them. Many manufacturing businesses are not working at full capacity due to post pandemic shortages such as microchips, and building materials. I expect energy costs will curtail the working hours of many businesses this winter. Slovenia wages are much lower than the UK according to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wagesSlovenia 2008 Euros per month (July 22) = £404 per week UK £613 per week (July 22) Slovenia minimum wage is lower than the UK according to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/minimum-wagesSlovenia 1074 Euros per month (Sept 22) = £6.18 per hour UK £9.50 per hour (Apr 22) On April 1 2022, the UK national living wage increased to £9.50 per hour for people aged 23 and above, a 6.6 per cent rise on the previous rate. Whilst this was the largest ever increase, in reality of course, it was a drop in living standard due to high inflation. The UK has the 8th highest minimum wage in the world. According to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/wage-growthSlovenia average wage increases (June 22) are 2.89% UK average wage increases (July 22) 5.5% In terms of real value of increased wages, the cost of living increase needs to be considered. According to this source: tradingeconomics.com/country-list/inflation-rate?continent=europeSlovenia inflation (Aug 22) was 11% UK inflation (Aug 22) was 9.9% This link supports the above links: take-profit.org/en/statistics/wages/slovenia/#:~:text=Average%20Wages%20in%20Slovenia%20increased,minimum%20was%201097%20EUR%2FMonth In the light of the above I struggle to see how UK lowest earners are 20% worse off than the lowest earners in Slovenia. I stand to be corrected. Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Poland than in Britain by the end of the decade?
Why will the average household on current trends be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024?
Repeating the above exercise for Poland: Poland's average wage is 6156 PLN/month (June 22) = £296 per week (c.f. UK £613 pw) Poland's minimum wage is 642 Euros per month (Sep 22) = £3.70 per hour (c.f. UK £9.50 ph) Poland's wage growth is 12.7% (Aug 22) significantly higher than the UK's 5.5% (July 22) Poland's inflation rate is 16.1% (Sep 22) (c.f. UK 9.9%) This link supports the above links: take-profit.org/en/statistics/wages/poland/#:~:text=What%20is%20average%20wage%20in,minimum%20was%201008%20PLN%2FMonth Poland will have to sustain their high wage inflation rate to catch up with UK wages by 2030, but whether it will be worth much given their inflation rate is debatable. The Slovenia figures are quoted above; somehow I doubt the average household will be richer in Slovenia than in Britain by 2024. In fact I would suggest the opposite will actually happen in the long term. It is a fact that since the introduction of the Euro the EU has become a two speed economy with the original core member nations doing very well, whereas the remoter nations such as the Mediterranean countries economies doing not as well as reflected in the rates of unemployment and growth of GDP per head. The eastern countries are currently catching up as a result of huge regional aid, as did Spain for example in the past, but I believe they will not do as well in the future. (Apologies for digressing and engaging in a prediction, something I normally try and avoid!) In 2007, the average UK household was 8 per cent worse off than its peers in north-western Europe, but the deficit has since ballooned to a record 20 per cent.
Did the other nations not go through the pandemic? Are they not suffering from the energy crisis? Those are the excuses brexiteers use to justify their beloved tory government and their beloved brexit.
Our rich are doing well. Our top 3% of earners take home £84k and are just behind Germans and Norwegians.
I am not surprised at the first statement. It goes to show how beneficial being in the EU was for the UK! Unless of course you believe all that "ballooning" has occurred in the last three years. In 2007 the UK balance of trade balance deficit with the EU was £35 billion. By 2019 that had increased to a massive deficit of £77 billion. The UK had become the EU's "Treasure Island" since the Maastricht Treaty. The UK was getting relatively poorer to the EU every year we were a member, handing the wealth earned by trade with the rest of the world to the EU countries. www.statista.com/statistics/551585/united-kingdom-uk-trade-balance-with-eu/I assume the questions posed in the second paragraph are rhetorical. The Tory government is not beloved by me. In fact just the opposite, they have made a huge mess of Brexit. May dithered and procrastinated and tried to compromise with the EU, something the EU don't do. Then Johnson went at it like a bull at a gate to rush things through and damn the consequences. What I don't fully understand is those that oppose Brexit are full of criticism of the government over how they handle matters like the pandemic, energy crisis, and a host of other issues, but then blame Brexit for exactly the same problems that other countries are suffering such as labour shortages, inflation, rising interest rates, etc. I covered labour shortages above; in the case of inflation Belgium, Spain, Greece, The Netherlands have all got higher inflation than the UK. France, Germany, and Italy have lower inflation that the UK because their governments have taken far more extensive action then the Tories. Inflation in the UK is caused by the war and made worse by government mismanagement as was the case with the pandemic. The UK is entering recession which the US has been experiencing all year. China had zero growth in the last quarter. We are all facing a world wide issue. When it comes to Brexit politicians, put me in the same camp as Benn, Shaw, Castle, and Skinner not the Tories. Looks like after this Friday's budget the UK rich are going to get richer and catch up with the Germans and Norwegians (who actually are not in the EU). Mr. Coke, the previous post that you made prior to this one, resulted in half a dozen other people challenging/querying your claim, yet you have ignored every single one of them.
Why is that?
As I have repeatedly posted on this MB, I do have many other interests, hobbies, and duties outside of participating on Oatcake. At the moment a religious organization I am treasurer of has an important function coming up. I trust I have responded sufficiently to your and other persons posts. OK I'll bite. The Post that you referenced and said no one queried. OK I'll query now. Your using the Old Johnsonian 3 Card Trick Nonsence which I've pulled you on a few times before You claimed that 29.7 million in payroll employment is the biggest in UK History it's a nonsense Statistic 32.72 million people were in work immediately prior to Covid Pandemic www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/january2019/pdf&ved=2ahUKEwipg6Lb0qn6AhU0oFwKHcVoDnoQFnoECBYQAQ&usg=AOvVaw236DJ6CgIv8TSzesKdbOePIn the post immediately above the one you referenced I refuted every single one of your incorrect claims. I can fully understand you have better priorities than being on this MB but there is a pattern with you. You make a series of incorrect claims pseudo backed up in a extremely long post. They are challenged you ignore then rince and repeat. Just stick to addressing the point being made preferable concisely OK I'll be brief. UK payroll employment is at an all time record level. There are fewer people working in the UK and most other countries than before the pandemic. The OECD reckon 20 million. The UK will account for a large part of that 20 million. 100,000s have chosen not to return to the work rat race, or return to UK, or still in education as they "lost" a year, or suffering long Covid. There are lots of reasons. Other EU countries now have labour shortage, why go (back) to the UK? East European countries are paying higher wages so why leave the family? These are effects of the pandemic and changes in local circumstances; nothing to do with Brexit. The UK needs immigrants to fill jobs that need doing that UK residents choose not to do, and record numbers are still coming to the UK. UK immigration rules now treat all nations equally (apart from special cases, or special agreed terms) whether they come from Africa, Asia, Europe, or the Americas.
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Sept 23, 2022 11:26:39 GMT
OK I'll be brief. UK payroll employment is at an all time record level. There are fewer people working in the UK and most other countries than before the pandemic. The OECD reckon 20 million. The UK will account for a large part of that 20 million. 100,000s have chosen not to return to the work rat race, or return to UK, or still in education as they "lost" a year, or suffering long Covid. There are lots of reasons. Other EU countries now have labour shortage, why go (back) to the UK? East European countries are paying higher wages so why leave the family? These are effects of the pandemic and changes in local circumstances; nothing to do with Brexit. The UK needs immigrants to fill jobs that need doing that UK residents choose not to do, and record numbers are still coming to the UK. UK immigration rules now treat all nations equally (apart from special cases, or special agreed terms) whether they come from Africa, Asia, Europe, or the Americas. "Nothing to do with Brexit." Nothing (negative ) is ever to do with Brexit in your view on things. Why can you not accept that Brexit is a factor in some things? I talk to the Eastern Europeans at work and I can tell you in no uncertain terms that one factor in there being fewer workers from Eastern Europe filling vacancies at my workplace....is Brexit.
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Post by wannabee on Sept 23, 2022 12:13:30 GMT
OK I'll be brief. UK payroll employment is at an all time record level. There are fewer people working in the UK and most other countries than before the pandemic. The OECD reckon 20 million. The UK will account for a large part of that 20 million. 100,000s have chosen not to return to the work rat race, or return to UK, or still in education as they "lost" a year, or suffering long Covid. There are lots of reasons. Other EU countries now have labour shortage, why go (back) to the UK? East European countries are paying higher wages so why leave the family? These are effects of the pandemic and changes in local circumstances; nothing to do with Brexit. The UK needs immigrants to fill jobs that need doing that UK residents choose not to do, and record numbers are still coming to the UK. UK immigration rules now treat all nations equally (apart from special cases, or special agreed terms) whether they come from Africa, Asia, Europe, or the Americas. The UK Payroll number is at an all time high because Rishi Sunak gave almost no support to the Self-employed during Covid. About 700,000 left Self-employment to take up zero hours contracts with Amazon ( I exaggerate) As a general rule Self-employed people are more entrepreneurial and likely to grow small businesses into medium ones Why this is a Brexit win I fail to understand Covid was disruptive in EU as well with many Eastern European Workers moving home from Western Europe. Many of these Eastern European Countries Economies are now doing well for instance Poland who are now experiencing a new phenomenon with many Ukrainian Construction Workers returning to fight Putin. Many EU Countries are relaxing Visa Rules to attract 3rd Country Workers Therefore Brexit reduced the Skilled Work Pool at precisely the wrong time.
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Post by mrcoke on Sept 23, 2022 13:47:39 GMT
OK I'll be brief. UK payroll employment is at an all time record level. There are fewer people working in the UK and most other countries than before the pandemic. The OECD reckon 20 million. The UK will account for a large part of that 20 million. 100,000s have chosen not to return to the work rat race, or return to UK, or still in education as they "lost" a year, or suffering long Covid. There are lots of reasons. Other EU countries now have labour shortage, why go (back) to the UK? East European countries are paying higher wages so why leave the family? These are effects of the pandemic and changes in local circumstances; nothing to do with Brexit. The UK needs immigrants to fill jobs that need doing that UK residents choose not to do, and record numbers are still coming to the UK. UK immigration rules now treat all nations equally (apart from special cases, or special agreed terms) whether they come from Africa, Asia, Europe, or the Americas. The UK Payroll number is at an all time high because Rishi Sunak gave almost no support to the Self-employed during Covid. About 700,000 left Self-employment to take up zero hours contracts with Amazon ( I exaggerate) As a general rule Self-employed people are more entrepreneurial and likely to grow small businesses into medium ones Why this is a Brexit win I fail to understand Covid was disruptive in EU as well with many Eastern European Workers moving home from Western Europe. Many of these Eastern European Countries Economies are now doing well for instance Poland who are now experiencing a new phenomenon with many Ukrainian Construction Workers returning to fight Putin. Many EU Countries are relaxing Visa Rules to attract 3rd Country Workers Therefore Brexit reduced the Skilled Work Pool at precisely the wrong time. So we agree in something. The reduction in non payroll workers, mainly self employed is due to Tory policy during the pandemic and not due to Brexit. Interesting to hear EU countries are relaxing visa rules to attract 3rd Country workers. Maybe that will help to reduce the number illegal boat people and encourage them to stay in the EU.
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Post by wannabee on Sept 23, 2022 14:47:35 GMT
FYI www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/labour-shortages-felt-all-over-europe/You can't seperate the Tory Party that brought us Brexit with Political decisions the Tory Party make The removal of the CAP on Bankers Bonuses is an acknowledgement that many left London after Brexit due to an inability to continue to work in their particular field This is an attempt to lure them back, bribery if you will This can be done on a targeted basis for a relatively few number of people Not possible for the millions of general workers who left these shores and can't be bothered jumping through hoops to return
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Post by oggyoggy on Sept 23, 2022 17:06:47 GMT
With the brexiteers at the helm in government, we are now seeing exactly what brexit was about. It’s right wing, it’s about enriching the wealthiest, it’s about supporting the biggest businesses and ignoring the small businesses, it’s about screwing the environment.
Welcome to brexit britain where bankers get massive tax cuts and the rest of us have to suck it up.
Surely the left wing brexiteers on here can see now that they were in cahoots with the right wing now when voting leave.
Brexit could have been done so differently. But under the tories it was the ERG way always.
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Post by toppercorner on Sept 24, 2022 8:40:31 GMT
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Post by andystokey on Sept 24, 2022 10:39:26 GMT
The simple facts of yesterdays budget are that the UK became a low cost "sweatshop" economy.
If you export purely UK sourced goods and don't need any materials from abroad then your labour is cheap and the pound makes it cheap for foreign countries to buy. A welcome boost some might say.
But if you produce whiskey or jam or anything else that needs foreign parts resources or materials to add value your costs went up. If you need a bottle or a jar to put your whiskey or jam in from abroad that bottle just got dearer and the total cost rose. The UK will make a crap margin on its bit the foreigner will make a nice lump on their bit.
It also means if you want a tomato for your tea in December it will be cheaper to eat a local parsnip. Your shopping choices just got more expensive unless you live like Baldrick.
All the money from tax that a low working family gained yesterday will be spent abroad. Your boss will want you to work longer for less to keep his shareholders happy. Just to put the icing on the cake. Those shareholders will be foreign, live abroad and save their money or spend it abroad.
Just don't get ill or need care while you are working your balls off.
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Post by mrcoke on Sept 24, 2022 11:18:53 GMT
Remind me bayern, At what point on that graph did the UK join the EU? The is no doubt that the vote to leave the EU caused a drop in the value of the £, but the most recent drop has nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with war in Ukraine and the flight of bankers to the US$, which has increased in value against almost all currencies and energy is traded in US$. The European Central Bank has just raised interest rates by the highest amount ever in its history to prop up the €, due to: www.cbsnews.com/news/euro-dollar-parity-first-time-in-20-years/I notice you have been in slumber mode vis a vis this MB for a while, I expect you have more important things to do. You showed your concern for Euro weakness to US$ which is not unusual during times of war but with Sterling still13% weaker to Euro since Brexit You seemed alarmed that ECB raised Interest Rates from zero to 0.75% You must be Frantic therefore that Bank of England has raised Interest Rates for the 7th time in a row to 2.25% while conceding UK may already be in recession www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62991376.ampThis rise will further dampen Industries enthusiasm for Investment and therefore productivity/growth Not to mention Government Borrowing Costs and further reduce already weak Inward Investment I shall be interested in your take on things in due course I am not in the least alarmed at the ECB raising interest rates, and not at all surprised at the BoE repeatedly raising rates. In fact the BoE are to be applauded for taking prompt action early, and persistently, much to the annoyance of the government I suspect. Whereas I think the ECB have been rather dilatory. I expect both organisations to continue to raise interest rates until there is a clear indication of the end of rising inflation. With the war in Ukraine and price of gas escalating I don't expect that to be any time soon. The points I was making in reply to Bayern are that we have seen sharp drops in the value of the £ during EU membership, and the BoE are not alone in raising interest rates as the ECB had raised their interest rate by a record amount. We have been through these cycles before: before joining the EEC, during membership of the EEC/EU, and now since leaving the EU. There is a war and, as normal, financial investors "flee" to the almighty US$, which has risen strongly in value against all the other major currencies. Despite this on Wednesday the US Federal Reserve raised the benchmark federal funds rate target to between 3% and 3.25%, the highest it has been in nearly 15 years. This has not been done to strengthen the US$ but to fight US inflation, just as the BoE and ECB and trying to fight inflation. If I am surprised at anything it is the action by Japan. Japan has continued serenely through the world pandemic and the war this year. This week though, although the Japanese did not raise interest rates as they have little inflation, the Bank of Japan has intervened in the FX market, buying Yen for US dollars, which is the first time the BoJ has intervened in the market since June 1998. With war raging, inflation going through the roof in many countries, banks/governments raising interest base rates or in Japan's case intervening in the market, and recession in the US with the UK following, and the economic slump in China, I expect we are in for a torrid time. Some people will continue to blame Brexit in this country if they choose to, but it clearly a worldwide issue. I take issue with your erroneous comment "already weak Inward Investment ". Please read my review of quarter 2 2022 on page 1,490, section A6 Finance, sub-section Investment, where I spell out at length what has happened with UK investment, including inward investment since leaving the EU. Here are a few snippets: " The UK continues to be Europe’s most attractive location for international investment into financial services ....................
"London has retained its title as Europe’s most attractive city for foreign direct investment
"Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the United Kingdom increased to a record £102billion in the first quarter of 2022 ................. and now at its highest level ever in UK history."
I have written much more (as usual) including the data for FDI for the G7 nations in 2021 where the UK FDI exceeds Japan, France, and Italy. My comments are all supported by independent references. Consequently I believe your assertion that the UK investment is weak is incorrect.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 24, 2022 11:36:52 GMT
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Post by oggyoggy on Sept 24, 2022 15:24:18 GMT
It is interesting that no brexiteers have responded to yours, my and others who have posted that yesterday’s budget was exactly what brexit was really about for those leading the leave campaign. Johnson didn’t do it because he wasn’t a true brexiteer. He just saw an opportunity for power and he grasped it but he never really believed in true deregulation. I know many on here consider themselves left wing and voted for brexit. I wonder how they feel now about everything. Presumably furious that the tories have taken politics so far right, but what I don’t get is how those left wing brexiteers didn’t see this coming with a leave vote!? Or perhaps they did and still think brexit was worth it.
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Post by foghornsgleghorn on Sept 24, 2022 16:02:51 GMT
Huddy has already posted this on the Shambles thread, but it deserves to go here as well. Brexit was not just all about bankers and the super-rich, it was about tearing up the countryside
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Post by wannabee on Sept 24, 2022 16:28:38 GMT
I notice you have been in slumber mode vis a vis this MB for a while, I expect you have more important things to do. You showed your concern for Euro weakness to US$ which is not unusual during times of war but with Sterling still13% weaker to Euro since Brexit You seemed alarmed that ECB raised Interest Rates from zero to 0.75% You must be Frantic therefore that Bank of England has raised Interest Rates for the 7th time in a row to 2.25% while conceding UK may already be in recession www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62991376.ampThis rise will further dampen Industries enthusiasm for Investment and therefore productivity/growth Not to mention Government Borrowing Costs and further reduce already weak Inward Investment I shall be interested in your take on things in due course I am not in the least alarmed at the ECB raising interest rates, and not at all surprised at the BoE repeatedly raising rates. In fact the BoE are to be applauded for taking prompt action early, and persistently, much to the annoyance of the government I suspect. Whereas I think the ECB have been rather dilatory. I expect both organisations to continue to raise interest rates until there is a clear indication of the end of rising inflation. With the war in Ukraine and price of gas escalating I don't expect that to be any time soon. The points I was making in reply to Bayern are that we have seen sharp drops in the value of the £ during EU membership, and the BoE are not alone in raising interest rates as the ECB had raised their interest rate by a record amount. We have been through these cycles before: before joining the EEC, during membership of the EEC/EU, and now since leaving the EU. There is a war and, as normal, financial investors "flee" to the almighty US$, which has risen strongly in value against all the other major currencies. Despite this on Wednesday the US Federal Reserve raised the benchmark federal funds rate target to between 3% and 3.25%, the highest it has been in nearly 15 years. This has not been done to strengthen the US$ but to fight US inflation, just as the BoE and ECB and trying to fight inflation. If I am surprised at anything it is the action by Japan. Japan has continued serenely through the world pandemic and the war this year. This week though, although the Japanese did not raise interest rates as they have little inflation, the Bank of Japan has intervened in the FX market, buying Yen for US dollars, which is the first time the BoJ has intervened in the market since June 1998. With war raging, inflation going through the roof in many countries, banks/governments raising interest base rates or in Japan's case intervening in the market, and recession in the US with the UK following, and the economic slump in China, I expect we are in for a torrid time. Some people will continue to blame Brexit in this country if they choose to, but it clearly a worldwide issue. I take issue with your erroneous comment "already weak Inward Investment ". Please read my review of quarter 2 2022 on page 1,490, section A6 Finance, sub-section Investment, where I spell out at length what has happened with UK investment, including inward investment since leaving the EU. Here are a few snippets: " The UK continues to be Europe’s most attractive location for international investment into financial services ....................
"London has retained its title as Europe’s most attractive city for foreign direct investment
"Gross Fixed Capital Formation in the United Kingdom increased to a record £102billion in the first quarter of 2022 ................. and now at its highest level ever in UK history."
I have written much more (as usual) including the data for FDI for the G7 nations in 2021 where the UK FDI exceeds Japan, France, and Italy. My comments are all supported by independent references. Consequently I believe your assertion that the UK investment is weak is incorrect. You are simply wrong When you watch a football match you just don't simply look at one side of the pitch and count the goals scored Oh no and sadly for Stoke and UK you must also count the goals conceded. NET Foreign Direct Investment NFDI is negative for the second consecutive quarter The only Country in G20 this has happened to. Of course you have to look at these things over a longer period and it was true to say up to 2016 NFDI was quite buoyant but has dropped off considerably since then I wonder what event may have happened in 2016 to cause this to happen 🤔 tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/foreign-direct-investmentYesterday's debacle of a Budget will make this even worse The Markets have given their answer already. There is no confidence in UK Economy and International Economic Commentators have been universally scathing The Bond Market which UK uses to fund its Current Account Deficit is in meltdown with 10 Years Gilts at their highest since 2010 5 Year Gilts and under are at about 4% 4 times what they were six weeks ago Sterling is at its weakest since 1985 and many are predicting parity (lol with Governments uncapped Energy Bill the forecasted cost will be a fraction) and continues to fall against Euro now 14% weaker since Brexit Of course in this scenario there may be some easy pickings for Foreign Investors to pick off given Sterling weakness but there aren't too many large Companies to raid as Energy, Transportation, Car Industry and your beloved Steel Industry have already been sold off. This of course would artificially boost FDNI as it has done in the past
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