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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Feb 1, 2017 7:24:15 GMT
Am I the only person that thinks that weather forecasting has got less accurate over the last couple of years? I'm sure it used to be more accurate, but these days they seem to get it wrong as often as they get it right.
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Post by lawrieleslie on Feb 1, 2017 8:20:57 GMT
Am I the only person that thinks that weather forecasting has got less accurate over the last couple of years? I'm sure it used to be more accurate, but these days they seem to get it wrong as often as they get it right. Down here in Devon the Mount Batten weather station is very good for short range forecasting over 5-7 days. I also think the XC Weather site is pretty good over same period. But after that I think most forecasts are educated speculation looking at weather patterns etc. Don't believe the shite you read in the tabloids about 30 day freeze ups that we are meant to be in the middle of according to the mail. It sells their newspapers........a headline forecast of 30 days of mild, wet and windy weather wouldn't sell anything.
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Post by wizzardofdribble on Feb 1, 2017 9:21:02 GMT
Keele weather station is fairly accurate for the next 48 to 72 hours. But the maths gets a bit more complex with longer range forecasts.
Even short range forecasts are highly local. On Sunday for example there were snow ploughs on the A53 between Leek & Buxton and loads of snow on the Roaches. But in Leek & Buxton no snow at all.
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Post by raythesailor on Feb 1, 2017 10:13:32 GMT
Weather forecasting is a complex subject as theire are so many variables. A perfect example is the depression out in the Atlantic at the moment and due to arrive over the UK on Friday. Because of the numerous permutations of these variables the forecasters are unceartain about its projected route.
The met office a few years ago spent many millions of pounds on a new computer system to attempt to improve and as the OP said there has been little improvement, in medium to long term forecasts. However short term forecast's of 24/36 hrs on the whole are pretty good.
Weather forecasting is a fascinating subject. Because of our geographical location on the globe U.K. Weather patterns are fairly easy to understand . We are mainly dominated by successions of low preausure systems developing either over the US eastern sea board/Caribbean, or the Atlantic where cold artic air meets warm moist maritime air assisted by the rotation of the planet. In the summer months as the earth tilts it has the effect of the sun appearing to travel north over the equator resulting in the permanent high pressure area, known as The Azores High, also moving north. The lows crossing the pond then get pushed further north. This is why it rains in Scotland whilst we Are often sun bathing in England.
Sorry to have gone on but it is a subject that as a sailor I have enjoyed studying for some time.
In conclusion. If we are lucky we should be dry for the Everton match, and it may well piss down on Thursday & Friday. But don't take my word for it.
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Post by Dutchpeter on Feb 1, 2017 10:29:36 GMT
I'm retraining as a weather observer. Looking forward to the change, and I'm lucky to get this chance at my age.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on Feb 1, 2017 11:23:58 GMT
Weather forecasting is a complex subject as theire are so many variables. A perfect example is the depression out in the Atlantic at the moment and due to arrive over the UK on Friday. Because of the numerous permutations of these variables the forecasters are unceartain about its projected route. The met office a few years ago spent many millions of pounds on a new computer system to attempt to improve and as the OP said there has been little improvement, in medium to long term forecasts. However short term forecast's of 24/36 hrs on the whole are pretty good. Weather forecasting is a fascinating subject. Because of our geographical location on the globe U.K. Weather patterns are fairly easy to understand . We are mainly dominated by successions of low preausure systems developing either over the US eastern sea board/Caribbean, or the Atlantic where cold artic air meets warm moist maritime air assisted by the rotation of the planet. In the summer months as the earth tilts it has the effect of the sun appearing to travel north over the equator resulting in the permanent high pressure area, known as The Azores High, also moving north. The lows crossing the pond then get pushed further north. This is why it rains in Scotland whilst we Are often sun bathing in England. Sorry to have gone on but it is a subject that as a sailor I have enjoyed studying for some time. In conclusion. If we are lucky we should be dry for the Everton match, and it may well piss down on Thursday & Friday. But don't take my word for it. That new super computer has a lot to answer for in my opinion and think it's the root of the problem. That computer is capable of churning out so many potential forecasts, they are relying on it too much, and less on human judgement.
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Post by cerebralstokie on Feb 1, 2017 12:45:23 GMT
Weather forecasting has become much more accurate in the last two decades. The U.K. is one of the most difficult places in the world to forecast the weather, but general trends e.g. dry, changeable etc can be predicted for 4 or 5 days ahead with reasonable certainty. Changes can be flagged up a few days in advance as well. By the way, Dutch, Stalin's first job was as a weather observer in Tblisi. Not many people know that!
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Post by mattador78 on Feb 1, 2017 13:17:25 GMT
Most accurate report is go outside if you get wet its raining. If its white its snowing and if you cant stand up its because its windy (or your pissed)
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Post by cerebralstokie on Feb 1, 2017 14:18:30 GMT
Most accurate report is go outside if you get wet its raining. If its white its snowing and if you cant stand up its because its windy (or your pissed) Needless to say, there is a meteorological term for this. It is "nowcasting". It is used when showers etc. are near to weather sensitive sports venues such as Wimbledon, Lords etc.
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Post by mattador78 on Feb 1, 2017 18:11:14 GMT
Most accurate report is go outside if you get wet its raining. If its white its snowing and if you cant stand up its because its windy (or your pissed) Needless to say, there is a meteorological term for this. It is "nowcasting". It is used when showers etc. are near to weather sensitive sports venues such as Wimbledon, Lords etc. So some fucker gets paid for looking out the window😵
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Post by cerebralstokie on Feb 1, 2017 18:27:53 GMT
Needless to say, there is a meteorological term for this. It is "nowcasting". It is used when showers etc. are near to weather sensitive sports venues such as Wimbledon, Lords etc. So some fucker gets paid for looking out the window😵 Yes, that's more or less it. (Actually, they look at weather radar, which is more or less the same)
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Post by mattador78 on Feb 1, 2017 18:37:04 GMT
So some fucker gets paid for looking out the window😵 Yes, that's more or less it. (Actually, they look at weather radar, which is more or less the same) Worlds gone mad
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Post by pearo on Feb 1, 2017 23:30:14 GMT
Weather forecaster and football manager, only jobs where you get consistently get things wrong and still find employment
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Post by andrewguk on Feb 2, 2017 10:15:46 GMT
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Post by raythesailor on Feb 2, 2017 10:46:20 GMT
I heard this morning that all trains from Bristol to the West Country have been cancelled due to ANTICIPATED severe weather.
They have only recently completed the multi million pounds repairs and strengthening of the line at Dawlish, caused by storm damage.
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