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Post by RedandWhite4ever on Apr 3, 2008 18:57:18 GMT
hey guy's with the big rce this weekend just wondering if anybody got as good tips
i fancy comply or die @ 10/1 good each way bet got good form too
any others having a bet on the big race
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Post by nickstokefc on Apr 3, 2008 20:24:05 GMT
how do you find out who is running, i don bet but i have 100 quid set aside for the national, my kids have a 5 pound each way bet and me and the wife have a couple, thanks for any help
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Post by Soi Cowboy on Apr 3, 2008 20:29:56 GMT
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Post by wizzardofdribble on Apr 3, 2008 20:30:33 GMT
I put this thread out a few days ago on the General Discussion Board RedandWhiteStokie...have a butchers on there mate for some tips
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snake
Academy Starlet
Posts: 121
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Post by snake on Apr 3, 2008 20:38:14 GMT
butlers cabin win vodka bleu e/w
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Post by garymoore26 on Apr 3, 2008 20:41:04 GMT
chelsea harbour looks alright..mite have a fiver each way on him. in the cheltenham festival i only won £7.25
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Post by Soi Cowboy on Apr 3, 2008 20:48:14 GMT
As mentioned in the form guide won comfortably at Punchestown but also at Naas previous time out- odds have dropped drastically though 14-1 Punchestown is a little under 4 miles long so a good benchmark- as with the National though it only takes an error and it's over.
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Post by jonesinamillion on Apr 4, 2008 9:39:14 GMT
Just pulled out "black Apalachi" in the sweep at work, sounds a bit crap to me, one to make up the numbers me thinks :-(
I need a couple of tips on how best to waste some money at the bookies please, summat with a half decent chance of getting me a return? So far I'm interested in vodka bleu, but mainly because I lkie vodka.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2008 9:42:00 GMT
I’ve drawn King Johns Castle in the sweepstake, seems like a decent shout for a place.
My money will probably go on Simon and Comply or Die.
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Post by SegaMegaDave on Apr 4, 2008 9:47:10 GMT
just stuck a fiver each way on King Johns, and a fiver on Baily Breeze to place.
Might stick another tenner on a different horse tomorrow morning if i'm feeling fruity.
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Post by BrianLeicsStokie on Apr 4, 2008 9:49:28 GMT
Im going for a fiver each way on Butlers Cabin, no particular reason, just going for it!
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Post by drjeffsdiscobarge on Apr 4, 2008 10:34:58 GMT
Jonesinamillion, dont worry, you wont be losing alone as i have backed Black Apalachi... but as i said on earlier thread i have only had two winners in the last 25 years!!! ;D
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Post by BrianLeicsStokie on Apr 4, 2008 10:57:30 GMT
Wish i'd had a win double on "Our Vic" and "Stan" at aintree yesterday 9/1 and 25/1 shots!!!!!!!!
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Post by Adster on Apr 4, 2008 11:04:29 GMT
i got a fiver each way on point barrow??
what do people think? was it a wise move?
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Post by PotteringThrough on Apr 4, 2008 11:08:25 GMT
Not bad, he was a co-favourite last year I think but fell at the first - pressure might have got to him!
Might stick a fiver on the horse i've drawn at work - Bobs hall - 100-1 shot!
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Post by n01stokie on Apr 4, 2008 13:08:21 GMT
anyone know anything about king johns castle, i had a random bet on him
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2008 13:14:44 GMT
I know I got him in the sweepstake. That’s as far as my knowledge goes on this one!!!
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Post by garymoore26 on Apr 4, 2008 13:19:26 GMT
ive drawn iron man in the sweep! according to the link above he is 100 to 1
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Post by craig67 on Apr 4, 2008 13:19:54 GMT
King Johns castle has form upto 3 miles,but normally runs at less than that. Will he stay?Only time will tell. Is he good enough-probably not. But his trainer Arthur Moore is quite shrewd.Would he run him if he didn't fancy him?Ask me after the race.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2008 13:39:48 GMT
LloyedColes, so you’re saying he’s a sure fire winner and we should all get down to the bookies and get our money on? Or have I misunderstood your post……
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Post by SegaMegaDave on Apr 4, 2008 13:43:36 GMT
my moneys already on is it good news?
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Post by craig67 on Apr 4, 2008 13:55:45 GMT
I'm just saying what I think. Will he win-I don't think so. But has he been given a now typical national build up-yeah probably. His lack of running over furthur than 3 miles puts me off a bit;but it hasn't hindered others. So put on and take your chance. The national is a bit of a lottery at times,though in the last 10 years only 2 winners have gone off at more than 20/1.
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Post by Trouserdog on Apr 4, 2008 14:37:46 GMT
Things to Avoid...
Anything French....they never have the stamina, and they are too busy talking about cheese and wine to concentrate on their jumping.
Anything carrying much above 11 stone. Lugging nearly 12 stone over 4 miles can't be much fun, and it's years since the winner had more than 11 stone on its back.
Something that's won or at least placed in good company at over 3 miles. The National is such an absurd distance that a lot of the horses are too fucked by half way round to carry on.
Something with a bit of class. Unless it's very heavy going a "plodder" won't win.
That should narrow the field down a bit.
Now sit back and watch as "L'escargot" carrying 15 stone, and having it's first ever run over 6 furlongs hacks up.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 4, 2008 14:40:51 GMT
I would be very very suprised if King Johns Castle wins.
He doesn't travel particularly strongly and is a real monkey - shying away from the whip being his latest trait.
There is no way a horse can win the Grand National being ridden hands and heels with a 2f run. And as soon as the jockey uses the whip the horse pretty much stops.
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Post by drjeffsdiscobarge on Apr 4, 2008 15:40:57 GMT
If you apply the various statistics for previous race winners, the winner should come from one of the following:-
Joaaci Point Barrow Cloudy Lane King Johns Castle Naunton Brook Tumbling Dice Idle Talk Black Apalachi
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Post by lommack on Apr 4, 2008 16:51:42 GMT
I'll keep away from that lot then Jeffrey thank you very much
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Post by armitagestokie on Apr 4, 2008 22:44:29 GMT
Tumbling dice £5 e/w 125/1 at hills --get in there baby
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Silvio
Youth Player
Posts: 461
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Post by Silvio on Apr 5, 2008 11:14:27 GMT
Found this interesting write up on another site: There are some absolute set in stone stats that we must take heed of and allow us to narrow down the Grand National field before we consider form and going preferences of the runners. Just one winner of the Grand National has never won at 3 miles or more so every horse you consider must have won over 3 miles plus. Weight is obviously a big factor and the most weight carried to victory was Red Rum carrying 11-6. The way the weights are this year there is a fair chance we could get an 11 stone winner so I am going to rule out anything above 11-2 as nothing in the last 20 years has managed that feat. Horses don’t win the Grand National if they younger than 8 or older than 12 but most winners are 9,10 or 11. I will allow horses that are 8 to 12 but extra credit is given to the 9, 10 and 11 year olds. Horses need to have had between 4-6 runs in the season if the stats are to be believed so lightly/heavily trained horses need to be ruled out. Every winner has had a run within the last 50 days so the rusty horses are ruled out. Although most horses are given a fairly light prep race before the big one they must at least run respectably in that so we can rule out anything that didn’t finish in the first seven on their latest run. I have entered these stats into www.grand-national-guide.co.uk/grand-national-form.php which gives me the following horses: Cloudy Lane Comply Or Die Snowy Morning D’argent L’ami Kelami Idle Talk I think the winner will definitely come from that list. Idle Talk’s win over 3m+ was in poor company and £17,000 is usually the cut off point for smallest chase win so we can rule that one out. Let’s look at who is left Cloudy Lane Deserves to be favourite and is obviously well in at the weights having won twice since the weights came out. Stamina has to be taken on trust as he has failed both times he has run over marathon distances but there were excuses at Fairyhouse last season as he was considered over the top by then. Decent jumper and possible winner but 5/1 is extremely short and in my opinion he is unbackable because of that price. Comply Or Die Won by a wide margin over a trip within three furlongs of the Grand National trip so certainly has the stamina for this. He is a classy individual who has had problems (was pulled up in three of six starts) but he seems back to his best and because of those problems we probably still haven’t seen the best of him. Has only fallen once in his career but yet to face fences like this, he is a very likely winner if getting a clear round, looks highly promising. Only negative is poor record of horses in the National when wearing headgear. Snowy Morning Has won over 3m but doesn’t look like a great stayer and although possibly well handicapped he has disappointed on his most recent start when a beaten odds on favourite and probably likes the ground softer. Can’t have it and will be surprised if it places. D’Argent Has plenty of stamina and seems to go on any ground. He is a decent jumper but four of his five chase wins have come at Warwick so maybe he just prefers it there and doesn’t look fantastically handicapped. Another with the head gear on too. L’Ami Stayed on well recently at Cheltenham and completed the race last year but was well beaten. Carries less weight this time and will probably get round but doesn’t quite stay this trip. Will probably come about 7th or 8th. Kelami Another who ran in the race last year (pulled up) but still retains plenty of ability and a marathon trip on goodish ground would suit. Hard to win with but a decent bet to place at the price. Grand National Bets I think Comply or Die is going to take all the beating and the only negative is the wearing of blinkers. I will be having a decent sized bet on Comply or Die and also a place interest in Kelami. Away from the stats I will also be backing Slim Pickings to place as he came third in the race last year and has been trained for this all season. Should be able to bag a place at ok place odds.
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Post by Cityfullergoals on Apr 5, 2008 12:15:25 GMT
DUN DOIRE and PHILSON RUN
Both each way at decent prices
Guaranteed stayers and steady jumpers
IF YOU WANT A GOOD BET MY MATE SAYS GRAND PLAN 3-55 LINGFIELD HAS BEEN LAID OUT FOR THE RACE BUT IT IS ONLY ABOUT 6 TO 4
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Post by boothenendboy on Apr 5, 2008 13:42:21 GMT
stuck a tenner on hedgehunter
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