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Post by mumf14 on Mar 12, 2008 23:42:56 GMT
WATFORD(away) 1pt. BLACKPOOL(home)3pts SHEFF WED(away) 1pt PALACE (home) 3pts COVENTRY(away) 1pt BRISTOL CITY (home) 1pt COLCHESTER(away)3pts LEICESTER (home) 3pts. TOTAL.................... 16PTS.( Please note that I haven't been able to spell the word defeat or nil points) Most of our remaining fixtures involve those teams desperate for points at the bottom half of this division.This in my opinion will make it more difficult and not as easy as some may believe. I do feel however that the above predictions are very conservative and what I see as a minimum achievement. This would give us 82 points ...Automatic promotion material? Not sure...I think 84 or 86 points would mean the Title.. ??? ???  |
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Post by mark71 on Mar 12, 2008 23:47:19 GMT
Mumf, if we could beat Watford and Bristol but drop points else where 82 points might be enough, only just mind  |
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Post by serpico on Mar 12, 2008 23:47:30 GMT
Can see us beating Coventry.
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Post by mumf14 on Mar 12, 2008 23:53:24 GMT
A win against either Watford or Bristol would give us an extra point...(A defeat in the other obviously).
It's the Sheff Wed and Coventry games that are hard to predict.Again, a win and a defeat would also give us an extra point ..
Put this alternative together with the Watford/Bristol one and we could therefore finish on 84pts....
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Post by mikeyb99 on Mar 13, 2008 0:11:44 GMT
mumf, that isn't much of a worst-case scenario is it?
I don't see Palace or Blackpool as 'bankers', nor that we will necessarily get anything at all from Watford, Wednesday or (a resurgent?) Coventry.
Eight cup-finals left, starting with Watford on Saturday.
PS. I think it could be a year for a low(er) points total for automatic promotion. Potentially just creeping above the 80pt mark.
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Post by mumf14 on Mar 13, 2008 0:19:34 GMT
Mickeyb99....It's a positive sort of worst case scenario .... I can't see many deviating too far from these predictions...Well apart from Sfance.(He's not all there...there's something missing... L.L.L.L.L.L.L.D.) ;D I've only given us 4 wins out of 8.That's pretty fair I think... As we all know none of these games are bankers..perhaps Blackpool being the exception. I wouldn't like to see us end up in the play-offs ..It's auto or nothing in my book. |
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Post by A-teen_six_T3 on Mar 13, 2008 0:37:06 GMT
if we beat watford and bristol, we will not need to rely on wins agaisnt the likes of Palarce, Coventry, Wednesday...
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Post by mumf14 on Mar 13, 2008 0:45:14 GMT
Are you sure...? IF ..you look at it another way and take our points total of 66 and divide it by how many games played: 66 divided by 38 = 1.73 1.73 x the 8 remaining fixtures = 13.89 14(rounded up) This would mean 80 points. |
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Post by Dallas Cowboy on Mar 13, 2008 1:16:01 GMT
Realistically, you should factor in at least one defeat. With every one of the last eight games being a "cup final," I think one will more than likely go against us. Maybe that can be offset with one of the draws ending up as a win.
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Post by mumf14 on Mar 13, 2008 1:25:52 GMT
Dallas....I'm not going to jinx our prospects for anyone....however further up the thread I did explore the possibilty of a win/defeat in a couple of games.
3 defeats 5 wins..=15 points
4 wins 2 draws 2 defeats=14 points....The possibilities are endless.
Perhaps the latter being the more likely ...who knows.?
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Post by mark71 on Mar 13, 2008 1:52:20 GMT
God I'm getting a headache just thinking about the different permutations  |
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Post by sheikh al dubai bin stokie on Mar 13, 2008 5:57:54 GMT
Personally, i think it all hinges on what the outcome of the Watford and Brizzle games are... the chance to take 3 points away from their respective campaigns is key...
combine that with the fixture congestion and fa cup focus of the braggies, then....
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Post by fezgandy on Mar 13, 2008 6:47:11 GMT
WATFORD(away) 1pt. BLACKPOOL(home)3pts SHEFF WED(away) 1pt PALACE (home) 3pts COVENTRY(away) 1pt BRISTOL CITY (home) 1pt COLCHESTER(away)3pts LEICESTER (home) 3pts. TOTAL.................... 16PTS.( Please note that I haven't been able to spell the word defeat or nil points) Most of our remaining fixtures involve those teams desperate for points at the bottom half of this division.This in my opinion will make it more difficult and not as easy as some may believe. I do feel however that the above predictions are very conservative and what I see as a minimum achievement. This would give us 82 points ...Automatic promotion material? Not sure...I think 84 or 86 points would mean the Title.. ??? ??? The worst case scenario is 0 points.  |
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Post by s8to on Mar 13, 2008 7:49:23 GMT
Basically, it starts with a win Satday, at Watford ... We win, they all start feeling the heat below us then... Its in our hands...
Not worried about points tallies, as its simple we win, they cant catch us....
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Post by jpm64 on Mar 13, 2008 7:56:04 GMT
OK this is the Banker calling... 16 points Deal or No Deal ??? |
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Post by y_oh_y_delilah on Mar 13, 2008 8:12:15 GMT
jpm's hands gets snapped off immediately!  |
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Post by Spiderman on Mar 13, 2008 8:16:35 GMT
Forrest you fool the worst case scenario is 0 points I'd take 16 points right now, though I can't see us getting that many. |
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Post by cousindupree on Mar 13, 2008 8:58:07 GMT
If we can find some form then we should hit 16pts....
Watford (A).....1pt.....crucial we dont lose this one
Blackpool (h)...3pts...Surely a win here
Sheff W (A)......0pt.....Sort of game we lose
Palarse (H)......3pts....tough game but we are better
Coventry (A)....0pts....Again one we could slip up at
This will leave us needing 3 wins from the last 3 games..
Bristol C (H).....3pts....Cup final and surely up for this
Colchest (A).....3pts....They will be down and a must win for us
Leics (H)...........3pts....Win or bust if we are up for it then we can do it.
As its so tight with the top 4...crucial we dont lose at Watford and beat Bristol. A defeat to either and we will need maybe 84 pts meaning wins at both cov and sheff wed.
Down to the last game i think...but I would take that.
West Brom by the way to hit 85pts as champs
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Post by apb1 on Mar 13, 2008 9:36:54 GMT
82 points will get us auto if we get a draw and a win against the two rivals - I agree with dupree that we will end up getting 9 from the last 3, causing maximum bum squeak hell.
Interestingly we are averaging 1.95 pts per game in the last 20 - only Bristol City are anywhere like that - Watford and the Baggies are well behind on about 1 and a half. I wish that helped more than it probably will ???
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Post by mumf14 on Mar 13, 2008 9:43:01 GMT
What we could do with ,is the the likes of Sheff Wed and Leicester winning a couple of games to pull out of the relegation area,thus making the game against us not so crucial.
By the time we play Colchester I think it will be all over for them, so all they will be playing for is pride.
Personally I would take 3 points from the Watford and Bristol games as obviously it is better than 2 draws ...but more importantly puts that bit more space between us and the team we beat.
I just hope that in the remaining fixtures we stay focused and not go a goal down in the first 15 minutes or so.We need to impose ourselves from the start ....although if we get promoted there may be a tendency to expose ourselves....OOOOOOeeerrrr.! ;D ;D
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Post by apb1 on Mar 13, 2008 9:50:34 GMT
Two theories though:
1 They are safe so won't try hard and we will own them
2 They are safe so will relax and play well with no fear
We've shown that on our day we can grind out ( (C) Ianrb1) a result anywhere, and if Fuller can hit form (likely) and avoid suspension (very very unlikely) I fancy us to do it. Our rivals are just as fallible as us - Watford can't win at home, West Brom are classic bottle merchants in waiting, Bristol are riding their luck a bit.
It's already a lottery, but at least we have a ticket, unlike Charltontina, Ipswich, Wolves, Leicester, Sheff United and all the other 'big' clubs who should be up there. And Cardiff ;D And Leeds ;D And Forest ;D
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Post by Menorca Stokie on Mar 13, 2008 10:00:11 GMT
I think you're all forgetting one thing. We're Stoke City. It simply can't end on a positive note can it.  I'll eat my hat if it does.  Come on Stoke prove me wrong, please. |
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Post by Davef on Mar 13, 2008 12:18:47 GMT
If we can find some form then we should hit 16pts.... Watford (A).....1pt.....crucial we dont lose this one Blackpool (h)...3pts...Surely a win here Sheff W (A)......0pt.....Sort of game we lose Palarse (H)......3pts....tough game but we are better Coventry (A)....0pts....Again one we could slip up at This will leave us needing 3 wins from the last 3 games.. Bristol C (H).....3pts....Cup final and surely up for this Colchest (A).....3pts....They will be down and a must win for us Leics (H)...........3pts....Win or bust if we are up for it then we can do it. As its so tight with the top 4...crucial we dont lose at Watford and beat Bristol. A defeat to either and we will need maybe 84 pts meaning wins at both cov and sheff wed. Down to the last game i think...but I would take that. West Brazil by the way to hit 85pts as champs Since TP's return no team has done a league double over us. Bristol City, Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday can still manage that this season, and though that nice little stat might be ended by one of them, I really don't see us losing at both Coventry and Sheffield Wednesday. Last season we won 15 points from the last eight games... |
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Post by sheikhmomo on Mar 13, 2008 12:52:11 GMT
My worst case scenario had us getting 11 points.
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Post by okeydokeystokie2 on Mar 13, 2008 13:00:38 GMT
If we beat Watford, and it's a big IF, we go 6 points clear having played a game more. After that, they look like 7 winnable fixtures. Don't think we'll win them all, but it really is there for the taking.
Bristol's fixtures look nasty to me, Brazil have a serious case of fixture pile up, and you're right, think Charlton have blown it.
I am a massive optimist, and I have been disappointed so many times, but come on lads and lasses, this time we really can do it. I am living in a permanent state of hypertension!
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Post by lordb on Mar 13, 2008 13:08:05 GMT
any set of results are possible
lets worry about permutations on the last day
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Post by Kenilworth_Stokies on Mar 13, 2008 13:14:43 GMT
We are where we are on form. If we extended our form from our last 8 matches we'd get 16 points, leaving us with 82:
Wolves W 3 pts
Southampton W 3 pts
Scunthorpe W 3 pts
Ipswich Town W 3 pts
Preston L 0 pts
QPR L 0 pts
Burnley D 1 pts
Norwich City W 3 pts
Total pts 16
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Post by Kenilworth_Stokies on Mar 13, 2008 13:15:32 GMT
What matters is the Bristol City and Watford 6 pointers of course though.
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