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Post by ben88 on Apr 2, 2009 14:49:58 GMT
do we actually need to be guarented 100% safety this season?
i know in the past it has been 40/42, but with it being so tight is it the same of different?
im not a maths wizz unfortunatly, but i bet someone on here is who can work it out.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 2, 2009 14:51:34 GMT
C x D / E + (C x S/T) = 40 points
Simples.
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Post by tazi on Apr 2, 2009 14:55:32 GMT
Win our next two matches and that's us home n dry.
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Post by jpm64 on Apr 2, 2009 14:57:12 GMT
Has Newcastle currently occupy the final Relegation spot and they could theoreticaly still finish with 53 points that is how many we need to be Mathmaticaly safe !! Of course this will not happen so as WD says 40 points and job done  |
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Post by hatchett on Apr 2, 2009 15:00:45 GMT
I think that 38 points we see us home and dry. But I think we will finish on 42 points this season.
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goatboy
Academy Starlet
Go Noles!
Posts: 134
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Post by goatboy on Apr 2, 2009 15:02:03 GMT
There ain't no guarantees youth, just educated guesses - although I'd personally guarantee safety at 50 points!! This far out, so much can change - with 4 or 5 games left, it might be possible to come up with a reasonable number |
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Post by assessornum1 on Apr 2, 2009 15:54:47 GMT
40 points it was before and will be again.
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Post by wembley4372 on Apr 2, 2009 15:58:25 GMT
Just enough not to be in the bottom three, same as every other season.
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Post by barmystokie1 on Apr 2, 2009 16:03:32 GMT
39 -40 pts should be enough
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Post by march4 on Apr 2, 2009 16:11:32 GMT
Last season, Reading were relegated with 36 points
2007, Sheff Utd had 38
2006, Birmingham had 34
2005, Palace had 33
2004, Leicester had 33
2003, West Ham had 42
2002, Ipswich had 36
2001, Man City had 34
2000, Wimbledon had 33
1999, Charlton had 36
1998, Bolton had 40
1997, Sunderland had 40
1996, Man City had 36
These are the points total of the the third from bottom relegated teams since the Prem went to 38 games.
Knowing our luck, this season a team will be relegated with a record high number of points.
Analysis of this season has shown that throughout the season, averaging a point a game has been just about enough to keep you out of the bottom 3. So 38 points could just be enough.
As the eternal pessimist, I won't start relaxing until we hit 44 points!
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Post by rorymscfc on Apr 2, 2009 16:12:21 GMT
One more point than the team that finishes 18th (as our goal difference will almost certainly be inferior!)
RoryM
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Post by megadrive on Apr 2, 2009 16:18:55 GMT
i think if we say 41, which is 3 more wins we should be fine but we have just got to play all 8 to win and not get complacent until we are safe
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Post by stokiemama14 on Apr 2, 2009 16:26:43 GMT
ive worked it out in my head plenty of times since the boro win and i have us on about 42 points at the end of the season with 2 wins, at least 4 draws and 3 losses, but i think we can get more that just them two wins its all about the confidence and i still believe we can stay up
so goarnn stoke!
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Post by scfc75 on Apr 2, 2009 16:28:24 GMT
Looking at their run-ins, I think the most Newcastle or Middlesboro can expect to win of their remaining 8 games is 4 each. This should mean that 18th spot will have at most 41pts, so 42 should see us safe, although I think it will actually be less than this. 3 wins will do it I reckon, starting Saturday.
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Post by Smudge_SCFC on Apr 2, 2009 16:52:16 GMT
March 4 beat me to the punch with his stats, but here are a few others to reinforce what needs to be done. In each season since the Premier League has been played over 38 games here are the number of points needed by a team to have avoided relegation... - 07/08... 37
- 06/07... 39
- 05/06... 35
- 04/05... 34
- 03/04... 34
- 02/03... 43*
- 01/02... 37
- 00/01... 35
- 99/00... 34
- 98/99... 37
- 97/98... 41
- 96/97... 41
- 95/96... 39
*Highest total from a 38 game season!In recent seasons it seems the gap between the bigger clubs and the rest has been getting wider and so less points are required to beat the drop. Only five teams have ever been relegated with 38 points or more in a 38 game Premier League campaign... - 95/96... Man City - 38
- 96/97... Sunderland - 40
- 97/98... Bolton - 40
- 02/03... West Ham - 42
- 06/07... Sheff Utd - 38
I think this season will probably see someone needing 41 points to be safe, if Newcastle go on a charge after the appointment of Shearer. I can't see them getting more than 39/40 points before the end of the season. |
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Post by Titan Uranus on Apr 2, 2009 17:01:20 GMT
My gut feeling is 40 points for absolute safety.
anything less and I think goal difference will come into it (and we dunna want that scenario do we)
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Post by onlyonesirstan on Apr 2, 2009 17:40:23 GMT
This scenario will go on week in week out. Lets get the WBA game out the way first and then lets see where we are then. I know it may be an annoying answer, but no one knows. Keep the Faith
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Post by Stay up again for - hoodyjr on Apr 2, 2009 21:38:53 GMT
WE ARE STAYING UP !
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Post by Beardy200 on Apr 3, 2009 10:28:30 GMT
There ain't no guarantees youth, just educated guesses - although I'd personally guarantee safety at 50 points!! This far out, so much can change - with 4 or 5 games left, it might be possible to come up with a reasonable number I'd agree with this one ben. In other words .... how long is a piece of string ??? |
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Post by fortressbritannia on Apr 3, 2009 10:33:55 GMT
the quicker we get to 45 points the better when we get to that we can afford to lose the rest of the games
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