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Post by andystokey on Mar 14, 2009 18:34:29 GMT
sorry this is a bonkers statistic but I was plaing with the league fixtures and without any particularly bonkers results, no one overhauling top 4. Its possible to go down with 44pts!!
The crazy scenario allows most of the bottom teams to take points of each other the final table would have. 12 teams with points between 47 and 44 and only two teams adrift.
WBA on 32 pts one more team on 39! no one has to hit any crazy form they arent showing now. Its going to be a very scary finish. In case we didnt know that already. To make it higher than that you would have some big gaps between WBA and 2nd bottom.
Even with Stoke getting 44 pts its not in our hands, we need a couple of teams to collapse to 3 or 4 defeats.
How tragic would that be? Im much more of an optimist than this sounds but it did scare the s**t out of me.
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Post by Pugsley on Mar 14, 2009 18:45:05 GMT
If Stoke get 44 points they will be comfortably safe.
3 wins and a draw will keep Stoke in the Prem.
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Post by wizzardofdribble on Mar 14, 2009 18:46:08 GMT
Spot on Papa Lazarou.. ;D Last week we had a thread saying we'd be safe on 37 points.. ??? Some were saying 34-36...  How insane is that? We need at least 42 And even that might not be enough |
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Post by andystokey on Mar 14, 2009 19:03:55 GMT
if you want to try go to the bbc predictor and give Stoke any 42 pts of your choice. Then try and see how little the other teams have to do to get above us.
Main thing we can do is NOT lose to anyone around us. Losing to teams around us at this stage is a disaster. Drawing is not as bad as you might think but losing is a nightmare.
I dont think 40pts is enough with our goal difference, given the form of Blackburn at home, Boro and Pompey being average to poor, we still need 41 or 42. We dont want to go down on goal difference, that would be shocking.
On current form our real rivals for that 3rd spot are:
Boro
Pompey
Newcastle and get this..
Bolton
Each of those is clearly capable of 40pts if you check out their full run in. Ive said all along 41pts is the lowest we can afford and Im more convinced than ever. That extra one point above 40 could be massive.
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Post by wizzardofdribble on Mar 14, 2009 20:49:44 GMT
Agree...41 or 42 points needed Boro..Newcastle and Blackburn are massive games that we cannot lose and that leads me to worry about TP's tactics...will he be overly cautious and play 2 banks of 4 at the back..sitting too deep..obsessed with stopping the opposition from scoring? I still think Hull will be drawn into it along with Boro/Necastle/Blackburn/Pompei... If we could beat Boro WBA and Newcastle on the bounce we would be almost there..but that's a big ask... Lose to any of those and the Circus could end up leaving town...  |
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Post by march4 on Mar 14, 2009 20:52:39 GMT
We could be safe after the next 4 games!!!
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Post by alex on Mar 14, 2009 20:59:12 GMT
We could be safe after the next 4 games!!! If we win the next 4 I think we are safe: Stoke v Middlesbrough West Brom v Stoke Stoke v Newcastle Stoke v Blackburn We need to be looking at a minimum of 9 points from the above. |
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Post by hoofmagic on Mar 14, 2009 21:06:48 GMT
ive no worries about staying up ,our home games will see us ok.
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Post by miffmister on Mar 14, 2009 23:32:34 GMT
I think we will get 42 points and be safe. But we are due a fuck up at home, hope we dont but it will happen when we dont expect it. GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONN STOKE!!!
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Post by slangking on Mar 14, 2009 23:37:37 GMT
I think you'd have to be on drugs to think that 44 points are required when we have for years in the championship worked on the principle that 50 points are correct to stay up which is equivalent to 41 in the prem, 41 is the absolute max.
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Post by CraigWally on Mar 14, 2009 23:37:59 GMT
38 will be enough
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Post by Lakeland Potter on Mar 15, 2009 9:03:53 GMT
For once I agree with Wally! ;D
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Post by harrysburrow on Mar 15, 2009 9:48:14 GMT
Imagine if we went on a crackin run for the next 4 or 5 games and were actually safe with a couple of games to go! I would find that most refreshing!
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