40 Point Prediction Update #1

[SidibeGod]

I posted this thread a while back, tracking our progress against scfcbuxton's pre-season predictions on where we would hope to get 40 points from this season.
oatcakefanzine.proboards27.com/index.cgi?board=Potters&action=display&thread=57142
After last nights performance, I thought it was about time for an update in the light of our recent "poor" results. Although I know the validity of a 40 point safety target is open to debate, I think the wrist slashers might want to take a closer look at the academic detail of our position so far and our easy(ish) run in:

	Home			Away
POINTS	expected	actual	ahead by	expected	actual	ahead by
Man Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
Liverpool	0	1	1	0	1	1
Chelsea	0	0	0	0	0	0
Arsenal	0	3	3	0
Tottenham	1	3	2	0	0	0
Portsmouth	1			0	0	0
Everton	1	0	-1	0
Man City	1			0	0	0
Aston Villa	1	3	2	0
Newcastle	3			0	1	1
Fulham	3	1	-2	0
Middlesbrough	3			0	0	0
West Ham	3			0	0	0
Sunderland	3	3	0	0
Wigan	3			0	1	1
Blackburn	3			0	0	0
Bolton	3			1	0	-1
West Brom	3	3	0	1
Hull	3	1	-2	3
TOTALS	35	18	3	5	3	2
Total expected	40
Expected to date	16
Actual to date	21
Ahead of target by	5
PREDICTIONS
© scfcbuxton

For those of you who like numbers, here are the stats transposed to a match by match basis. Wrist-slashers might find it interesting to note that we haven't been behind our target points tally since day 1.

	POINTS	expected	actual	ahead by
A	Bolton	1	0	-1
H	Aston Villa	1	3	1
A	Middlesbrough	0	0	1
H	Everton	1	0	0
A	Liverpool	0	1	1
H	Chelsea	0	0	1
A	Portsmouth	0	0	1
H	Tottenham	1	3	3
A	Man City	0	0	3
H	Sunderland	3	3	3
H	Arsenal	0	3	6
A	Wigan	0	1	7
A	Man Utd	0	0	7
H	West Brom	3	3	7
H	Hull	3	1	5
A	Newcastle	0	1	6
H	Fulham	3	1	4
A	Blackburn	0	0	4
H	Man Utd	0	0	4
A	West Ham	0	0	4
H	Liverpool	0	1	5
A	Chelsea	0	0	5
A	Tottenham	0	0	5
H	Man City	1
A	Sunderland	0
H	Portsmouth	1
A	Aston Villa	0
H	Bolton	3
A	Everton	0
H	Middlesbrough	3
A	West Brom	1
H	Newcastle	3
H	Blackburn	3
A	Fulham	0
H	West Ham	3
A	Hull	3
H	Wigan	3
A	Arsenal	0
	PREDICTIONS
	© scfcbuxton

BRING ON THE ARABS!!! ;D

[The man from Utch]

Cool we are staying up ;D

[Deleted]

And just for all those who have been crying likek babies all afternoon over a loss at WHL



Clean your tear up please

[coggy]

What a great post ! Thanks for this !!!

I see Hull away is 3 points, could struggle with that and give it a 1 but Brazil away is a 1 and i would give that 3

[coggy]

In Fact - Admin can you make this a sticky ? Good to keep a balance and check in as we go ?

[Deleted]

Great idea Coggy - It will be our mecca of positivity

[scfclifer]

H Man City 1
A Sunderland 1
H Portsmouth 3
A Aston Villa 0
H Bolton 3
A Everton 0
H Middlesbrough 3
A West Brom 3
H Newcastle 3
H Blackburn 3
A Fulham 1
H West Ham 3
A Hull 1
H Wigan 1
A Arsenal 0


thats my reckoning 26pts there goaarn stoke

[Deleted]

and the moral to this is, don't count your chickens before they're hatched.

[blythebridgestokie]

yes sticky, great idea coggy ;D

[jezzascfc]

Sorry to piss on your chips, but that only works if we win 6 and draw 2 (20 points) of our remaining 8 home games, which would be some feat. Football results are unpredictable at the best of times, and cannot be reduced to a simple formula like you suggest.

More realistically, even allowing for our generally good home form, we should anticipate winning 4, maybe drawing 3 and losing 1 (15 points), which moves us back towards the 30s and surely closer to one of the relegation places.

IMHO, we will only survive if we either exhibit the stupendously brilliant home form you suggest, or we actually find a way (attacking would be a good start!) to win a couple away from home.

Over to you, Tone.

[RAF]

And also those stats for expected results, who the fucking hell decided them? Buxton?? and he decided the target criteria.
Fucking hell I could do that, but it doesn't amount to the square root of fuck all.
Half of those are completely in disagreement with what has been written on here.
We have had all sorts of people predicting we would do the likes of Bolton, Blackburn, Portsmouth , and also predicting we could quite easily get something from the likes of Chelsea and Manure.

As for the 'wrist slasher' quips, keep it next door with the fucking other clowns.

H

[sweetandinnocent]

just watching A.C Milan, Beckham has just scored again for them, the goal was ridicuously good, he's MOM so far, nearly scored in the first 20 seconds too - a screamer just over the bar from about 25 yards(in open play). On this evidence Beckham is still World Class.

crosses are still unreal - causing all sorts of problems, i'd forgotten just how good beckham is.

[Ddraigcoch]

Great set of stats from Sidibiegod, and whilst the old addage of lies, lies and statistics may ring true I believe that until it is mathematically impossible for US to stay up then WE should not accept releagtion as an option.

TP and the Squad have put the CLUB in a great position so far this season. WE are still very much in the mix to avoid the drop out of the Premiershit.

Home form has been immense so far and no one relishes coming to the Britannia, this will stand us in good stead for points at home.

Away from home ............clearly things could be a lot better......and now is the ideal opportunity for TP to revise the strategy of not conceeding and hoping to knick a goal for a point or 3.

Why not give it a real go from the off and if we loose an early goal so be it, at least there would be more chance of scoring ourselves rather than hit and hope. No Sidibie means no hope for those tactics. Until he's back TP must adjust with nothing to lose in my opinion. My guess is the players would respond to the challenge.

Until then the Doom mongers have got the ammunition to have a go at TP which is not a healthy situation for the task at hand.

I'm not calling for blind faith and everyone has a right to criticise but if you throw enough shit some of it will stick and will only serve to worsen the perception that we are DOOMED.

Relegation to the Championship would not be the disaster that some make out and survival would not be without its downside either. Expectation is that the OUR TEAM that takes the pitch gives it everything for the supporters and we should be proud of that no matter if results don't fall our way.

STOKE CITY is a true football club and fans of other Premiership Clubs know it. Imagine when do stay up and consolidate OUR position and pus on for Europe in 3 - 5 years and the likes of Man Citeh are in receivership. How sweet will that be !!!!

BELIEVE my friends and it can happen.

Adios.

[Somebody_Told_Me]

Brilliant Thread!!!!!!! Puts the premier league into perspective we new it was tough before the season started no need to bottle it now when the more winnable games are due.

I've said all along we'll finish above Hull.

Mind you to win 6 out of 8 is pushing it a bit, there will be draws and the odd loss at home.

[SidibeGod]

Jan 28, 2009 20:12:04 GMT RAF said:

And also those stats for expected results, who the fucking hell decided them? Buxton?? and he decided the target criteria.
Fucking hell I could do that, but it doesn't amount to the square root of fuck all.
Half of those are completely in disagreement with what has been written on here.
We have had all sorts of people predicting we would do the likes of Bolton, Blackburn, Portsmouth , and also predicting we could quite easily get something from the likes of Chelsea and Manure.

As for the 'wrist slasher' quips, keep it next door with the fucking other clowns.

H

Thanks for that H.
I think you've missed the point of the thread - which is to monitor this seasons performance, based on a reasonable prediction made in August and, without the benefit of hindsight.
As for quips - personally, I prefer being a 'fucking other clown' rather than a 'wrist slasher'.
Keep taking the tablets

[coggy]

Admin please sticky this !!!!!!

[RAF]

Thanks for that H.
I think you've missed the point of the thread - which is to monitor this seasons performance, based on a reasonable prediction made in August and, without the benefit of hindsight.
As for quips - personally, I prefer being a 'fucking other clown' rather than a 'wrist slasher'.
Keep taking the tablets

Firstly I didn't miss any point thankyou.
And if as you say your point was to monitor this seasons performance then why the wise cracks?
I'll tell you why, because you wanted a reaction.
Those tables you have put up represent one mans supposed predictions.
They don't serve as any type of calming influence or any type of point proving exercise to your so called 'wrist slashers'.
If you think just because our run in on paper looks easier than other teams , that's all it is ON PAPER.
Our run in will be just as hard and we won't get an easy ride from anyone.

Cheers

H

P.S I'm surprised you would want to post on here if it's so good over with the clowns