Relegation Run In - Predictor

[Robo10]

Right, second Excel fun of the week for you, I'm a cup half full type but be interesting to see what everybody thinks - are some really intense close games left for all the teams

What I've made for you (you will need Excel as a starter...):

All the fixtures remaining this season
I've removed any games not involving the bottom 11 (so only including Cardiff downwards, who are on 41 points currently) - 111 games
The current league table is at the top, you can obvs put the real results in as they happen to keep this up to date


SIMPLE TO COMPLETE - just put in predicted scores, or as I am doing 1-0, 0-0 or 0-1 to predict home or away wins to make the points work
It will update the FORECAST points as you go, and the teams with the 3 lowest points will be highlighted as to who you think will go - I could go to town and add in Goal Diff/Goals Scored but I cant be arsed
(Teams on joint points will come down the GD in reality)
See what you come up with - will be all sorts of weird results as the season goes on (see Rotherhams epic game then heroic failure last night!)

ONLY FILL IN THE YELLOW BITS....


Will post my forecast in a bit!



(LAST 4 GAMES PREDICTOR UPDATED ON page 8)

[Robo10]

Mine:

Cardiff 55
Swansea 51
Brum 50
Blackburn 50
Stoke 49
Millwall 45
Plymouth 43
Huddersfield 39
Sheff Weds 39
QPR 37
Rotherham 23

Stoke 3 wins (Boro, Huddersfield, Plymouth), 5 draws and 5 defeats)

Tried to be honest and not red/white tinted!

[pmjh]

You've got Birmingham playing twice on the same day. March 12th

[blackpoolred]

That is mine - hope I am correct:

Cardiff City 57
Blackburn Rovers 55
Queens Park Rangers 49
Plymouth Argyle 48
Stoke City 48
Swansea City 47
Birmingham City 46
Millwall 45
Huddersfield Town 43
Sheffield Wednesday 39
Rotherham United 21

[Robo10]

Feb 21, 2024 17:05:00 GMT pmjh said:

You've got Birmingham playing twice on the same day. March 12th

I'll have a look, they had an odd unfulfilled fixture in the original list

Date might be wrong but think the fixture is correct (home game v Boro was the odd game from Jan)

**sorted - the Hull v Brum game is now 5th March not 12th - games valid as thought

[shrewspotter]

dont know what at the fuss is about lads, we have pissed it. also surpising to see Rovram win every game and survive easily, cheerio to Wednesday, QPR and Hudders


Standings @ 21/02/2024 NOW                 FORECAST

14 Cardiff City                 41                     53

15 Birmingham City         38                     49

16 Blackburn Rovers         38                     49

17 Plymouth Argyle         37                     54

18 Swansea City             36                     51

19 Stoke City                 35                     74

20 Huddersfield Town     34                     46

21 Millwall                     33                     49

22 Queens Park Rangers 32                     46

23 Sheffield Wednesday 29                     44

24 Rotherham United     19                     58

[lordb]

Interesting to see the difference in points totals required to stay up already

[cheadlepotter]

14 Blackburn Rovers 58
15 Swansea City 53
16 Cardiff City 52
17 Birmingham City 52
18 Plymouth Argyle 49
19 Queens Park Rangers 49
20 Millwall 45
21 Sheffield Wednesday 44
----------------------------
22 Stoke City 43
23 Huddersfield Town 42
24 Rotherham United 31

[chiswickpotter]

Feb 21, 2024 17:01:09 GMT Robo10 said:

Mine:

Cardiff 55
Swansea 51
Brum 50
Blackburn 50
Stoke 49
Millwall 45
Plymouth 43
Huddersfield 39
Sheff Weds 39
QPR 37
Rotherham 23

Stoke 3 wins (Boro, Huddersfield, Plymouth), 5 draws and 5 defeats)

Tried to be honest and not red/white tinted!

Not sure you managed it! Huddersfield and QPR 5 points from 13 games! They are averaging 1 a game. 46 looks the minimum to stay up

[blackpoolred]

Feb 21, 2024 17:01:09 GMT Robo10 said:

Mine:

Cardiff 55
Swansea 51
Brum 50
Blackburn 50
Stoke 49
Millwall 45
Plymouth 43
Huddersfield 39
Sheff Weds 39
QPR 37
Rotherham 23

Stoke 3 wins (Boro, Huddersfield, Plymouth), 5 draws and 5 defeats)

Tried to be honest and not red/white tinted!

If 40pts is enough to finish above 4 teams I will be amazed - hope you are correct though.

Also, QPR are in a bit of form and I think they are going to gain more than 5pts from their remaining fixtures

[canadastk]

I predicted every game beginning week 33:

Leicester 110
Leeds

[canadastk]

Leicester 110
Leeds 106
Ipswich 101
Southampton 97
West Brom 90
Norwich 87
Hull 76
Coventry 73
Preston 65
Sunderland 62
Bristol City 58
Middlesborough 58
Plymouth 54
Watford 53
Huddersfield 53
Cardiff 49
Blackburn 49
Birmingham 47
Stoke 47
Millwall 46
QPR 46
Swansea 46
Wednesday 33
Rotherham 20

[canadastk]

This will be interesting to revisit after the final week. Let's just hope Stoke are safe. It's going right down to the final game no doubt.

[Staffsoatcake]

I had us on 52_pts

[thebet365]

I've probably been a bit harsh on Rotherham

Crunch games for us are Boro/Hudders/Plymouth home games

14 Cardiff City 41 53
15 Birmingham City 38 50
16 Swansea City 36 50
17 Queens Park Rangers 49
18 Blackburn Rovers 48
19 Stoke City 35 48
20 Plymouth Argyle 37 46
21 Sheffield Wednesday 45
22 Millwall 33 43
23 Huddersfield Town 42
24 Rotherham United 25

[femark]

14th - Cardiff 57
15th - Swansea 55
16th - Plymouth 54
17th - Birmingham 53
18th - Stoke City 53
19th - Huddersfield 47
20th - Blackburn 44
21st - Millwall 43
----------------------------
22nd - QPR 43
23rd - Wednesday 39
24th - Rotherham 26

[baconburger]

1 Leicester City Leicester City 46 36 5 5 93:38 55 113
2 Leeds United Leeds United 46 30 9 7 85:38 47 99
3 Southampton FC Southampton FC 46 30 9 7 89:53 36 99
4 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 46 28 14 4 88:57 31 98
5 West Bromwich Albion West Bromwich Albion 46 22 13 11 67:45 22 79
6 Hull City Hull City 46 20 13 13 66:57 9 73
7 Norwich City Norwich City 45 20 12 13 75:61 14 72
8 Coventry City Coventry City 46 15 22 9 66:50 16 67
9 Bristol City Bristol City 46 18 12 16 57:53 4 66
10 Sunderland AFC Sunderland AFC 46 18 8 20 61:55 6 62
11 Middlesbrough FC Middlesbrough FC 45 16 13 16 63:61 2 61
12 Watford FC Watford FC 46 14 18 14 65:61 4 60
13 Preston North End Preston North End 46 15 15 16 57:68 -11 60
14 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 46 12 15 19 64:75 -11 51
15 Cardiff City Cardiff City 46 12 14 20 50:64 -14 50
16 Stoke City Stoke City 46 11 16 19 43:62 -19 49
17 Swansea City Swansea City 46 11 14 21 53:70 -17 47
18 Queens Park Rangers Queens Park Rangers 46 11 12 23 46:62 -16 45
19 Huddersfield Town Huddersfield Town 46 9 18 19 51:72 -21 45
20 Birmingham City Birmingham City 44 10 14 20 49:67 -18 44
21 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn Rovers 46 11 10 25 60:80 -20 43
22 Millwall FC Millwall FC 46 8 18 20 43:65 -22 42
23 Sheffield Wednesday Sheffield Wednesday 46 10 10 26 40:71 -31 40
24 Rotherham United Rotherham United 46 3 16 27 38:84 -46 25

[lordb]

Low 40's appears to be the average predicted points required

[vidigoals]

14 Cardiff City                      -52
15 Birmingham City              -50
16 Swansea City                  -50
17 Stoke City                       -50
18 Huddersfield Town           -50
19 Blackburn Rovers             -47
20 Queens Park Rangers       -47
21 Millwall                           -46
--------------------------------------
22 Plymouth Argyle              -45
23 Sheffield Wednesday        -40
24 Rotherham United            -21


Probably too harsh on Rotherham but this would be a tasty little result.
Our predictions - 


Stoke City Middlesbrough 1-0
Stoke City Norwich City 1-1
Stoke City Huddersfield Town 1-0
Stoke City West Bromwich Albion 0-1
Stoke City Plymouth Argyle 1-0
Stoke City Bristol City 1-0

Cardiff City Stoke City 1-1
Leeds United Stoke City 2-0
Preston North End Stoke City 1-0
Hull City Stoke City 1-0
Swansea City Stoke City 1-0
Sheffield Wednesday Stoke City 1-1
Southampton Stoke City 1-0


Ignore the goals scored/conceded, it was easier just to stick 1.

[cvillestokie]

I reckon we’ll beat Cardiff, Boro, Norwich, Huddersfield and Swansea, and that we’ll draw to Preston, West Brom and Plymouth.

18 more points will put us on 53 and we’ll finish in the middle of the bottom half.

[chad]

Feb 22, 2024 15:11:17 GMT vidigoals said:

14 Cardiff City                      -52
15 Birmingham City              -50
16 Swansea City                  -50
17 Stoke City                       -50
18 Huddersfield Town           -50
19 Blackburn Rovers             -47
20 Queens Park Rangers       -47
21 Millwall                           -46
--------------------------------------
22 Plymouth Argyle              -45
23 Sheffield Wednesday        -40
24 Rotherham United            -21


Probably too harsh on Rotherham but this would be a tasty little result.
Our predictions - 


Stoke City Middlesbrough 1-0
Stoke City Norwich City 1-1
Stoke City Huddersfield Town 1-0
Stoke City West Bromwich Albion 0-1
Stoke City Plymouth Argyle 1-0
Stoke City Bristol City 1-0

Cardiff City Stoke City 1-1
Leeds United Stoke City 2-0
Preston North End Stoke City 1-0
Hull City Stoke City 1-0
Swansea City Stoke City 1-0
Sheffield Wednesday Stoke City 1-1
Southampton Stoke City 1-0


Ignore the goals scored/conceded, it was easier just to stick 1.

Well as far as goals scored I’d say 1 is our best bet

[blackpoolred]

Feb 22, 2024 15:11:17 GMT vidigoals said:

14 Cardiff City                      -52
15 Birmingham City              -50
16 Swansea City                  -50
17 Stoke City                       -50
18 Huddersfield Town           -50
19 Blackburn Rovers             -47
20 Queens Park Rangers       -47
21 Millwall                           -46
--------------------------------------
22 Plymouth Argyle              -45
23 Sheffield Wednesday        -40
24 Rotherham United            -21


Probably too harsh on Rotherham but this would be a tasty little result.
Our predictions - 


Stoke City Middlesbrough 1-0
Stoke City Norwich City 1-1
Stoke City Huddersfield Town 1-0
Stoke City West Bromwich Albion 0-1
Stoke City Plymouth Argyle 1-0
Stoke City Bristol City 1-0

Cardiff City Stoke City 1-1
Leeds United Stoke City 2-0
Preston North End Stoke City 1-0
Hull City Stoke City 1-0
Swansea City Stoke City 1-0
Sheffield Wednesday Stoke City 1-1
Southampton Stoke City 1-0


Ignore the goals scored/conceded, it was easier just to stick 1.

Home: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Optimism for you or have you not being paying attention

[vidigoals]

Feb 22, 2024 21:29:00 GMT blackpoolred said:

Feb 22, 2024 15:11:17 GMT vidigoals said:

14 Cardiff City                      -52
15 Birmingham City              -50
16 Swansea City                  -50
17 Stoke City                       -50
18 Huddersfield Town           -50
19 Blackburn Rovers             -47
20 Queens Park Rangers       -47
21 Millwall                           -46
--------------------------------------
22 Plymouth Argyle              -45
23 Sheffield Wednesday        -40
24 Rotherham United            -21


Probably too harsh on Rotherham but this would be a tasty little result.
Our predictions - 


Stoke City Middlesbrough 1-0
Stoke City Norwich City 1-1
Stoke City Huddersfield Town 1-0
Stoke City West Bromwich Albion 0-1
Stoke City Plymouth Argyle 1-0
Stoke City Bristol City 1-0

Cardiff City Stoke City 1-1
Leeds United Stoke City 2-0
Preston North End Stoke City 1-0
Hull City Stoke City 1-0
Swansea City Stoke City 1-0
Sheffield Wednesday Stoke City 1-1
Southampton Stoke City 1-0


Ignore the goals scored/conceded, it was easier just to stick 1.

Home: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat

Optimism for you or have you not being paying attention

Putting it like that seems optimistic but if you look at it on a game-by-game basis, Boro/Bristol City are reasonable takes but we absolutely need to be beating Hudders & Plymouth.
I don't think we'll be far off that given I haven't given us a single away win.

[i1da]

Feb 21, 2024 16:48:15 GMT Robo10 said:

Right, second Excel fun of the week for you, I'm a cup half full type but be interesting to see what everybody thinks - are some really intense close games left for all the teams

What I've made for you (you will need Excel as a starter...):

All the fixtures remaining this season
I've removed any games not involving the bottom 11 (so only including Cardiff downwards, who are on 41 points currently) - 111 games
The current league table is at the top, you can obvs put the real results in as they happen to keep this up to date


SIMPLE TO COMPLETE - just put in predicted scores, or as I am doing 1-0, 0-0 or 0-1 to predict home or away wins to make the points work
It will update the FORECAST points as you go, and the teams with the 3 lowest points will be highlighted as to who you think will go - I could go to town and add in Goal Diff/Goals Scored but I cant be arsed
(Teams on joint points will come down the GD in reality)
See what you come up with - will be all sorts of weird results as the season goes on (see Rotherhams epic game then heroic failure last night!)

ONLY FILL IN THE YELLOW BITS....


Will post my forecast in a bit!

View Attachment

Dang!  You beat me to it .... Only I was making a Play-offs Run In Predictor!

[i1da]

Feb 22, 2024 15:11:17 GMT vidigoals said:

14 Cardiff City                      -52
15 Birmingham City              -50
16 Swansea City                  -50
17 Stoke City                       -50
18 Huddersfield Town           -50
19 Blackburn Rovers             -47
20 Queens Park Rangers       -47
21 Millwall                           -46
--------------------------------------
22 Plymouth Argyle              -45
23 Sheffield Wednesday        -40
24 Rotherham United            -21


Probably too harsh on Rotherham but this would be a tasty little result.
Our predictions - 
My objective this season is to finish above Cardiff!


Stoke City Middlesbrough 1-0
Stoke City Norwich City 1-1
Stoke City Huddersfield Town 1-0
Stoke City West Bromwich Albion 0-1
Stoke City Plymouth Argyle 1-0
Stoke City Bristol City 1-0

Cardiff City Stoke City 1-1
Leeds United Stoke City 2-0
Preston North End Stoke City 1-0
Hull City Stoke City 1-0
Swansea City Stoke City 1-0
Sheffield Wednesday Stoke City 1-1
Southampton Stoke City 1-0


Ignore the goals scored/conceded, it was easier just to stick 1.

Ever since Llanrumneybluebirds infamous post "Where are Stoke .... Below us again", I can't help but check to make sure we are above them. Do you know that in the past 100 years, Cardiff have ended above us less than 10% of the time (2 of those occurred in the last few years). So come on Stoke - Get above Cardiff!

[stokie1947]

reckon 18th

[mrcoke]

Every game is  critical now just to avoid players giving up.

I think SS has sussed who is not up for the fight and doesn't care, but he can 't fix players who are just not good enough like our defenders. Somehow he has gof to find a way of scoring goals or we are done for.


therealefl.co.uk/2024/02/23/stoke-to-go-down-southampton-out-of-the-play-offs-the-championships-second-half-table/

[vidigoals]

Feb 22, 2024 15:11:17 GMT vidigoals said:

14 Cardiff City                      -52
15 Birmingham City              -50
16 Swansea City                  -50
17 Stoke City                       -50
18 Huddersfield Town           -50
19 Blackburn Rovers             -47
20 Queens Park Rangers       -47
21 Millwall                           -46
--------------------------------------
22 Plymouth Argyle              -45
23 Sheffield Wednesday        -40
24 Rotherham United            -21


Probably too harsh on Rotherham but this would be a tasty little result.
Our predictions - 


Stoke City Middlesbrough 1-0
Stoke City Norwich City 1-1
Stoke City Huddersfield Town 1-0
Stoke City West Bromwich Albion 0-1
Stoke City Plymouth Argyle 1-0
Stoke City Bristol City 1-0

Cardiff City Stoke City 1-1
Leeds United Stoke City 2-0
Preston North End Stoke City 1-0
Hull City Stoke City 1-0
Swansea City Stoke City 1-0
Sheffield Wednesday Stoke City 1-1
Southampton Stoke City 1-0


Ignore the goals scored/conceded, it was easier just to stick 1.

Opted not to change any of my results but I've updated the predictor with the past 2 weeks of scores.

14  Cardiff City   -   57
15  Huddersfield Town  -  54
16  Swansea City  -  53
17  Millwall  -  52
18  Birmingham City  -  50
19  QPR  -  50
20  Stoke City  -  49
21  Plymouth  -  48
22  Blackburn Rovers  -  48
23  Sheffield Wednesday  -  42
24  Rotherham United  -  20

Blackburn replace Plymouth in the Bottom 3 and drop on GD.

The main takeaway being that the survival number has risen from 46 to 49....

[spitthedog]

Mar 4, 2024 9:41:24 GMT vidigoals said:

Feb 22, 2024 15:11:17 GMT vidigoals said:

14 Cardiff City                      -52
15 Birmingham City              -50
16 Swansea City                  -50
17 Stoke City                       -50
18 Huddersfield Town           -50
19 Blackburn Rovers             -47
20 Queens Park Rangers       -47
21 Millwall                           -46
--------------------------------------
22 Plymouth Argyle              -45
23 Sheffield Wednesday        -40
24 Rotherham United            -21


Probably too harsh on Rotherham but this would be a tasty little result.
Our predictions - 


Stoke City Middlesbrough 1-0
Stoke City Norwich City 1-1
Stoke City Huddersfield Town 1-0
Stoke City West Bromwich Albion 0-1
Stoke City Plymouth Argyle 1-0
Stoke City Bristol City 1-0

Cardiff City Stoke City 1-1
Leeds United Stoke City 2-0
Preston North End Stoke City 1-0
Hull City Stoke City 1-0
Swansea City Stoke City 1-0
Sheffield Wednesday Stoke City 1-1
Southampton Stoke City 1-0


Ignore the goals scored/conceded, it was easier just to stick 1.

Opted not to change any of my results but I've updated the predictor with the past 2 weeks of scores.

14  Cardiff City   -   57
15  Huddersfield Town  -  54
16  Swansea City  -  53
17  Millwall  -  52
18  Birmingham City  -  50
19  QPR  -  50
20  Stoke City  -  49
21  Plymouth  -  48
22  Blackburn Rovers  -  48
23  Sheffield Wednesday  -  42
24  Rotherham United  -  20

Blackburn replace Plymouth in the Bottom 3 and drop on GD.

The main takeaway being that the survival number has risen from 46 to 49....

I would be amazed if Blackburn went down based on their performance v Newcastle who they outplayed for most of the game.

[vidigoals]

Mar 4, 2024 14:27:58 GMT spitthedog said:

Mar 4, 2024 9:41:24 GMT vidigoals said:

Opted not to change any of my results but I've updated the predictor with the past 2 weeks of scores.

14  Cardiff City   -   57
15  Huddersfield Town  -  54
16  Swansea City  -  53
17  Millwall  -  52
18  Birmingham City  -  50
19  QPR  -  50
20  Stoke City  -  49
21  Plymouth  -  48
22  Blackburn Rovers  -  48
23  Sheffield Wednesday  -  42
24  Rotherham United  -  20

Blackburn replace Plymouth in the Bottom 3 and drop on GD.

The main takeaway being that the survival number has risen from 46 to 49....

I would be amazed if Blackburn went down based on their performance v Newcastle who they outplayed for most of the game.

You're probably right to be fair, on checking I haven't actually given them a point away from home.
Since beating us at our place on in November, they've not won away from home - still think it's unlikely they lose every one - I fancy Plymouth for the drop more & more each week.


Blackburn Rovers Norwich City 1 1

Blackburn Rovers Millwall 1 0

Blackburn Rovers Plymouth Argyle 1 0

Blackburn Rovers Ipswich Town 0 1

Blackburn Rovers Southampton 0 1

Blackburn Rovers Sheffield Wednesday 1 0

Blackburn Rovers Coventry City 0 1


Swansea City Blackburn Rovers 2 1

Middlesbrough Blackburn Rovers 2 0

Sunderland Blackburn Rovers 1 0

Bristol City Blackburn Rovers 1 0

Leeds United Blackburn Rovers 1 0

Leicester City Blackburn Rovers 1 0