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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2023 21:19:16 GMT
I'm not claiming this is much consolation to me (or expecting it to be for anyone else) but our xG stats (according to this link at least) are actually not the worst. link5th best xG for 8th best xG against It's frustrating as hell but, even yesterday when we played abysmally overall, we had more than enough chances to be out of sight. Brown/Delap both guilty of fluffing their lines. And, until the error that resulted in Bonham making an excellent save, I can't remember them having too much. It felt so obvious though we were going to find a way to lose that match 0-1. Our issue must be psychological because, statistically, we aren't that bad. |
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Post by Gods on Jan 3, 2023 23:40:44 GMT
Fascinating stuff.
We've either not had the roll of the dice or somehow flunked the key moments, or most likely both.
The simple truth is we have a squad which should be closer to top 6 than, as they are, in 19th position.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 3, 2023 23:42:10 GMT
If ever there was an argument for xg being a load of wank there it is!
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Post by theonlooker on Jan 3, 2023 23:48:51 GMT
Interesting overall stats but also interesting for the two recent homes games. 1.08 for Burnley and 1.83 for Preston.
Thought from an attacking sense in both games we were dire.
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Post by SuperRickyFuller on Jan 4, 2023 1:16:59 GMT
Interesting overall stats but also interesting for the two recent homes games. 1.08 for Burnley and 1.83 for Preston. Thought from an attacking sense in both games we were dire. I imagine the Brown side foot in the first half and Delap "clearance" in the second half would've scored highly in xG terms so I think that's where 1.83 would've come from for the Preston game. But I do agree that attacking wise we were pretty shit. Haven't a clue where 1.08 has come from for the Burnley game though, their keeper didn't have a save to make and I can't remember a single chance of any note. One for tachyon because I'm interested as to where those numbers have come from. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2023 1:43:04 GMT
If ever there was an argument for xg being a load of wank there it is! I've only just started looking into it but there seems to be different stats from different sites (looking at one now that says we should only be 2 pts better off as opposed to the stats I posted in the OP which don't seem to do much for the case of xG) |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2023 1:44:59 GMT
Interesting overall stats but also interesting for the two recent homes games. 1.08 for Burnley and 1.83 for Preston. Thought from an attacking sense in both games we were dire. I imagine the Brown side foot in the first half and Delap "clearance" in the second half would've scored highly in xG terms so I think that's where 1.83 would've come from for the Preston game. But I do agree that attacking wise we were pretty shit. Haven't a clue where 1.08 has come from for the Burnley game though, their keeper didn't have a save to make and I can't remember a single chance of any note. One for tachyon because I'm interested as to where those numbers have come from. In the Burnley game we had a massive chance when it fell to us in the box and fox (?) just hit it at the keeper instead of lifting? Unless I'm remembering wrong. We miss so many easy chances of late they all blend into one long nightmare. |
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 4, 2023 1:46:55 GMT
If ever there was an argument for xg being a load of wank there it is! I've only just started looking into it but there seems to be different stats from different sites (looking at one now that says we should only be 2 pts better off as opposed to the stats I posted in the OP which don't seem to do much for the case of xG) Just seems like made up bollocks to me. But I’m very cynical and not open minded when it comes to this crap 😂😂 Both games had 0-0 written all over them until the Stoke defence gifted 2 goals. That’s the issue. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2023 1:53:43 GMT
I've only just started looking into it but there seems to be different stats from different sites (looking at one now that says we should only be 2 pts better off as opposed to the stats I posted in the OP which don't seem to do much for the case of xG) Just seems like made up bollocks to me. But I’m very cynical and not open minded when it comes to this crap 😂😂 Both games had 0-0 written all over them until the Stoke defence gifted 2 goals. That’s the issue. I did think the same. In fact I tried to argue the case against xG with a super intelligent statistician friend of mine. He eventually got exasperated and said, "Look, we can settle this quite easily. You take the top 5 goalscorers for the rest of the season, I'll take the top 5 xG, but you're my friend and I don't really want to take free value from you". I didn't take the bet because his disturbing level of confidence was enough to convince me. |
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xG stats
Jan 4, 2023 2:13:10 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 4, 2023 2:13:10 GMT
Just seems like made up bollocks to me. But I’m very cynical and not open minded when it comes to this crap 😂😂 Both games had 0-0 written all over them until the Stoke defence gifted 2 goals. That’s the issue. I did think the same. In fact I tried to argue the case against xG with a super intelligent statistician friend of mine. He eventually got exasperated and said, "Look, we can settle this quite easily. You take the top 5 goalscorers for the rest of the season, I'll take the top 5 xG, but you're my friend and I don't really want to take free value from you". I didn't take the bet because his disturbing level of confidence was enough to convince me. That’d be interesting to see tbh! From what I can find there seems to be a correlation though? Unless I’m totally not getting it…..which is highly likely! www.fotmob.com/leagues/47/stats/season/17664/players/expected_goalsXg Haaland Kane Mitrovic Toney Salah Actual Haaland Kane Toney Mitrovic Rodrigo Just for the fact I’ve never heard of Rodrigo and have Salah and expect him to score more I’d say you were right to avoid the bet. Have I been converted? 😂😂😂 Just seems like logic to me 🤷♂️🤷♂️ |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2023 2:19:22 GMT
I did think the same. In fact I tried to argue the case against xG with a super intelligent statistician friend of mine. He eventually got exasperated and said, "Look, we can settle this quite easily. You take the top 5 goalscorers for the rest of the season, I'll take the top 5 xG, but you're my friend and I don't really want to take free value from you". I didn't take the bet because his disturbing level of confidence was enough to convince me. That’d be interesting to see tbh! From what I can find there seems to be a correlation though? Unless I’m totally not getting it…..which is highly likely! www.fotmob.com/leagues/47/stats/season/17664/players/expected_goalsXg Haaland Kane Mitrovic Toney Salah Actual Haaland Kane Toney Mitrovic Rodrigo Just for the fact I’ve never heard of Rodrigo and have Salah and expect him to score more I’d say you were right to avoid the bet. Have I been converted? 😂😂😂 Just seems like logic to me 🤷♂️🤷♂️ Ye basically this was the bet, except it was earlier in the season so there was likely an even wider deviation between expectation/reality. Welcome to the xG club! |
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xG stats
Jan 4, 2023 2:26:36 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jan 4, 2023 2:26:36 GMT
That’d be interesting to see tbh! From what I can find there seems to be a correlation though? Unless I’m totally not getting it…..which is highly likely! www.fotmob.com/leagues/47/stats/season/17664/players/expected_goalsXg Haaland Kane Mitrovic Toney Salah Actual Haaland Kane Toney Mitrovic Rodrigo Just for the fact I’ve never heard of Rodrigo and have Salah and expect him to score more I’d say you were right to avoid the bet. Have I been converted? 😂😂😂 Just seems like logic to me 🤷♂️🤷♂️ Ye basically this was the bet, except it was earlier in the season so there was likely an even wider deviation between expectation/reality. Welcome to the xG club! I still think it’s bollocks and my lack of knowledge/ignorance gets the same outcome as some magic stat bullshit 😂😂can’t be that clever. |
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xG stats
Jan 4, 2023 6:28:29 GMT
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Post by sportsman on Jan 4, 2023 6:28:29 GMT
Fascinating stuff. We've either not had the roll of the dice or somehow flunked the key moments, or most likely both. The simple truth is we have a squad which should be closer to top 6 than, as they are, in 19th position. It's what AN has been saying after every game |
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Post by theonlooker on Jan 4, 2023 8:07:16 GMT
Interesting overall stats but also interesting for the two recent homes games. 1.08 for Burnley and 1.83 for Preston. Thought from an attacking sense in both games we were dire. I imagine the Brown side foot in the first half and Delap "clearance" in the second half would've scored highly in xG terms so I think that's where 1.83 would've come from for the Preston game. But I do agree that attacking wise we were pretty shit. Haven't a clue where 1.08 has come from for the Burnley game though, their keeper didn't have a save to make and I can't remember a single chance of any note. One for tachyon because I'm interested as to where those numbers have come from. I find stats fascinating from both ends of the spectrum. On one end, how they are derived and how the correlate to what the eye sees - ie. The eye says its a poor chance, the stats say different. The other end is how clubs and technical staff use them to improve the players and if they’re actually any use at all. It’s obvious Neil uses them as he’s been quoting similar stuff recently, and him and the gang are usually pratting about on an IPad on the bench most of the game but equally we aren’t really improving in terms of chance creation (volume) nor conversion rate so you are left questioning their use and worth if they are in the wrong hands. |
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Post by FullerMagic on Jan 4, 2023 8:35:04 GMT
theanalyst.com/eu/2022/08/english-championship-stats-2022-23/Opta has us: 12th in open play xg created 7th in set-piece xg created 5th best in open-play xg allowed 10th best in set-piece xg allowed And of the 33 keepers who've played meaningful minutes, Bonham is 26th and Bursik 27th in their 'goals prevented' metric
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xG stats
Jan 4, 2023 9:07:51 GMT
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Post by SuperRickyFuller on Jan 4, 2023 9:07:51 GMT
I imagine the Brown side foot in the first half and Delap "clearance" in the second half would've scored highly in xG terms so I think that's where 1.83 would've come from for the Preston game. But I do agree that attacking wise we were pretty shit. Haven't a clue where 1.08 has come from for the Burnley game though, their keeper didn't have a save to make and I can't remember a single chance of any note. One for tachyon because I'm interested as to where those numbers have come from. In the Burnley game we had a massive chance when it fell to us in the box and fox (?) just hit it at the keeper instead of lifting? Unless I'm remembering wrong. We miss so many easy chances of late they all blend into one long nightmare. Was that the chance where everyone (myself included) thought we'd scored but a freekick was given to them? My memory of the Burnley game is incredibly fuzzy and it was only last week 😂 |
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Post by FullerMagic on Jan 4, 2023 9:12:16 GMT
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Post by LGH87 on Jan 4, 2023 9:16:55 GMT
theanalyst.com/eu/2022/08/english-championship-stats-2022-23/Opta has us: 12th in open play xg created 7th in set-piece xg created 5th best in open-play xg allowed 10th best in set-piece xg allowed And of the 33 keepers who've played meaningful minutes, Bonham is 26th and Bursik 27th in their 'goals prevented' metric An even half competent goalkeeper would see us up the league on it's own. |
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Post by scfc75 on Jan 4, 2023 9:34:59 GMT
In the Burnley game we had a massive chance when it fell to us in the box and fox (?) just hit it at the keeper instead of lifting? Unless I'm remembering wrong. We miss so many easy chances of late they all blend into one long nightmare. Was that the chance where everyone (myself included) thought we'd scored but a freekick was given to them? My memory of the Burnley game is incredibly fuzzy and it was only last week 😂 We’ve played Burnley? 😐 |
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Post by flea79 on Jan 4, 2023 10:23:27 GMT
shove the xg stats where the sun doesnt shine
the only stat that matters is the score at the end and right now it isnt good enough
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xG stats
Jan 4, 2023 11:00:33 GMT
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Post by PotteringThrough on Jan 4, 2023 11:00:33 GMT
theanalyst.com/eu/2022/08/english-championship-stats-2022-23/Opta has us: 12th in open play xg created 7th in set-piece xg created 5th best in open-play xg allowed 10th best in set-piece xg allowed And of the 33 keepers who've played meaningful minutes, Bonham is 26th and Bursik 27th in their 'goals prevented' metric That last point continues to be the big issue. Last seasons and the season before seemed to be a similar level of conceding very few meaningful chances but somehow they still went in… |
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Post by chiswickpotter on Jan 4, 2023 11:14:52 GMT
Didn't Tachyon do some analysis earlier in the season suggesting we were creating a lot of low probability chances, Brown v Preston a good example? The combination of XG and the goalkeeping stats are compelling though. It does feel we have been comfortable/on top in a number of games only to conceded a soft goal. I do feel we could be competitive around the top 10 with a goalkeeper but not much more as it is strikingly clear how poor our midfield is, or at the least the current one. I do feel Laurent, Powell and Kilkenny (or even Tymon ) must be better than the recently picked trio |
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xG stats
Jan 4, 2023 11:18:05 GMT
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Post by Veritas on Jan 4, 2023 11:18:05 GMT
Didn't Tachyon do some analysis earlier in the season suggesting we were creating a lot of low probability chances, Brown v Preston a good example? The combination of XG and the goalkeeping stats are compelling though. It does feel we have been comfortable/on top in a number of games only to conceded a soft goal. I do feel we could be competitive around the top 10 with a goalkeeper but not much more as it is strikingly clear how poor our midfield is, or at the least the current one. I do feel Laurent, Powell and Kilkenny (or even Tymon ) must be better than the recently picked trio I agree about tbe midfield but all 3 of those have been out injured umtil now. I would stick with Baker but play him 20 yards further forward and play Powell up front. |
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Post by PotterLog on Jan 4, 2023 12:07:30 GMT
Forgive my ignorance but does xG take into account the player the chances fall to? Not sure many Stoke fans were x-ing a G from Fox, even in that situation |
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xG stats
Jan 4, 2023 12:16:21 GMT
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Post by cvillestokie on Jan 4, 2023 12:16:21 GMT
I'm not claiming this is much consolation to me (or expecting it to be for anyone else) but our xG stats (according to this link at least) are actually not the worst. link5th best xG for 8th best xG against It's frustrating as hell but, even yesterday when we played abysmally overall, we had more than enough chances to be out of sight. Brown/Delap both guilty of fluffing their lines. And, until the error that resulted in Bonham making an excellent save, I can't remember them having too much. It felt so obvious though we were going to find a way to lose that match 0-1. Our issue must be psychological because, statistically, we aren't that bad. It’s not exactly shocking. Every game, we have bemoaned our strikers missing fairly easy opportunities. Every game we grow angrier at our defenders for deciding to have their turn at comically gifting someone a decent chance. We play a slow, heavy possession game and while we don’t create chance after chance, we do miss a lot of sitters. We also don’t usually seem under the cosh all game, yet still manage to fall asleep the first time that we are. It’s laughable. |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2023 12:18:36 GMT
I can't believe the Delap one doesn't have a high xG. It looked a sitter to me but he got his feet all wrong. |
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Post by FullerMagic on Jan 4, 2023 12:32:43 GMT
Forgive my ignorance but does xG take into account the player the chances fall to? Not sure many Stoke fans were x-ing a G from Fox, even in that situation Some of the advanced models do apparently - but maybe not the more basic, public ones? statsbomb.com/soccer-metrics/expected-goals-xg-explained/ |
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Post by middleoftheboothen on Jan 4, 2023 12:53:02 GMT
Forgive my ignorance but does xG take into account the player the chances fall to? Not sure many Stoke fans were x-ing a G from Fox, even in that situation Some of the advanced models do apparently - but maybe not the more basic, public ones? statsbomb.com/soccer-metrics/expected-goals-xg-explained/ So what he is saying is that chances are pretty much the same for any player or that there is little difference to who the finisher is. For instance the chance Fox had against Burnley which he hit at the keeper from a few yards out would have had virtually the same xg had it have fell to say Campbell who is known as being alot better finisher. You would think that it would be higher falling to a striker than say a defender or am I reading that completely wrong? |
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Post by Deleted on Jan 4, 2023 12:54:37 GMT
Forgive my ignorance but does xG take into account the player the chances fall to? Not sure many Stoke fans were x-ing a G from Fox, even in that situation This was my exact argument against the statistician but it turns out there’s very few players in the world who consistently outperform their xG metric by any meaningful amount. (Messi being one who has over a career) I guess what you’re buying with strikers is their movement / intelligence to get into positions that creates more xG than others, and it’s just a handful of true magicians who conjure out of nothing. |
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Post by PotterLog on Jan 4, 2023 13:54:59 GMT
Forgive my ignorance but does xG take into account the player the chances fall to? Not sure many Stoke fans were x-ing a G from Fox, even in that situation This was my exact argument against the statistician but it turns out there’s very few players in the world who consistently outperform their xG metric by any meaningful amount. (Messi being one who has over a career) I guess what you’re buying with strikers is their movement / intelligence to get into positions that creates more xG than others, and it’s just a handful of true magicians who conjure out of nothing. I'm sure that's probably right.. although there's something supremely depressing about the idea that there's not much difference between Thierry Henry and Morgan Fox when presented with a chance, all else being equal. There must be major variance within that though (e.g. shots from outside the box) I find xG intriguing but can't profess to fully understand it.. I'm naturally sceptical but as I understand it over the long term it's a pretty accurate predictor of performance, and if that's true then it can't really be ignored. |
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