|
|
Post by nottsover60 on Nov 2, 2022 9:09:31 GMT
Another interesting article by Mark Taylor about xG in our matches www.stokesentinel.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/stoke-city-manager-alex-neil-7772972As usual I found this a really interesting article about goal scoring for and against us at the moment. It supports some of the points I have made recently. Our xG is generally made up of a lot of poor quality shots whereas the opposition have tended to have good quality chances. So for example (if I understand correctly) we might have a higher xG because we take a lot of shots. The xG of 20 shots of xG of 0.1 each give us an xG of 2.The opposition might just have 1 shot but at an xG of 0.9.They are far more likely to score with that one chance than we are with any of ours resulting in us losing 1-0 despite having superior xG. Interestingly our defensive xG is exactly the same as the number of goals we have conceded mainly because we are giving up high xG chances. So perhaps the criticism of Bursik allowing every shot into the net is a bit unfair and we ought to be looking at why our defenders allow such high quality chances every match. It also shows how important Nick Powell is. Most of his goals come from high xG chances. He is playing in the same team as the rest of the strikers so his higher xG is almost entirely down to his movement and getting into good areas. As was said last season Tymon was putting in some great crosses to no one. Had a player been able to get into the right area of the box to get on the end of the cross he would have had a high xG chance. He also talks about post shot xG which I hadn't heard of - how likely the shot is to be a goal after the shot has been taken. So Messi has a high post shot xG because he puts his shots in the corners making it difficult to save them. Our post shot xG as you would have expected is low being mostly off target or in the middle of the goal. In fact our post shot xG is far lower than the xG of our chances. The only player we have whose post shot xG is as high once he's shot is Nick Powell. So he gets in better areas and takes better shots than any of our other strikers. I think it's interesting to see how the stats explain why our apparent dominance of matches is resulting in defeats and how those defeats are not totally down to bad luck and there are things we have to work on rather than just waiting for our luck to change. Hopefully the return of Nick Powell will help |
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Nov 2, 2022 9:57:17 GMT
I'll do the defence in a couple of weeks. Giving the shot stopping a bit of a break :-)
|
|
|
|
Post by cheadlepotter on Nov 2, 2022 10:36:04 GMT
So perhaps the criticism of Bursik allowing every shot into the net is a bit unfair and we ought to be looking at why our defenders allow such high quality chances every match. The loss of possession from his poor kicking and the loss of or lack of gaining of possession because of he won’t command his area eventually contribute to the opponent’s xG though. |
|
|
|
Post by lordb on Nov 2, 2022 10:45:33 GMT
Another interesting article by Mark Taylor about xG in our matches www.stokesentinel.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/stoke-city-manager-alex-neil-7772972As usual I found this a really interesting article about goal scoring for and against us at the moment. It supports some of the points I have made recently. Our xG is generally made up of a lot of poor quality shots whereas the opposition have tended to have good quality chances. So for example (if I understand correctly) we might have a higher xG because we take a lot of shots. The xG of 20 shots of xG of 0.1 each give us an xG of 2.The opposition might just have 1 shot but at an xG of 0.9.They are far more likely to score with that one chance than we are with any of ours resulting in us losing 1-0 despite having superior xG. Interestingly our defensive xG is exactly the same as the number of goals we have conceded mainly because we are giving up high xG chances. So perhaps the criticism of Bursik allowing every shot into the net is a bit unfair and we ought to be looking at why our defenders allow such high quality chances every match. It also shows how important Nick Powell is. Most of his goals come from high xG chances. He is playing in the same team as the rest of the strikers so his higher xG is almost entirely down to his movement and getting into good areas. As was said last season Tymon was putting in some great crosses to no one. Had a player been able to get into the right area of the box to get on the end of the cross he would have had a high xG chance. He also talks about post shot xG which I hadn't heard of - how likely the shot is to be a goal after the shot has been taken. So Messi has a high post shot xG because he puts his shots in the corners making it difficult to save them. Our post shot xG as you would have expected is low being mostly off target or in the middle of the goal. In fact our post shot xG is far lower than the xG of our chances. The only player we have whose post shot xG is as high once he's shot is Nick Powell. So he gets in better areas and takes better shots than any of our other strikers. I think it's interesting to see how the stats explain why our apparent dominance of matches is resulting in defeats and how those defeats are not totally down to bad luck and there are things we have to work on rather than just waiting for our luck to change. Hopefully the return of Nick Powell will help one key point: Tymon hasn't being playing lately as such quality of chances have dropped in the time he has been out surely? |
|
|
|
Post by jhtstokie on Nov 2, 2022 12:11:17 GMT
Only thing we should be arsed about is goals. You can have the highest xG in the league but if you can’t score you won’t win games, which AN has alluded to a few times in his pressers.
|
|
|
|
Post by canadianmoose on Nov 2, 2022 12:43:09 GMT
You don't need fancy statistics to see the problem with our defence and midfield. They back off and off until the opposition finally plays the through ball or puts the cross in. They don't step forward when they should and they seem unable to put a foot in where it matters. We aren't doing the nasty parts of the game well enough at all.
|
|
|
|
Post by gawa on Nov 2, 2022 12:46:56 GMT
tachyon do we have a graph which shows xG over 2022 so far? Be interested to see how we are improving.
|
|
|
|
Post by gawa on Nov 2, 2022 12:47:23 GMT
Only thing we should be arsed about is goals. You can have the highest xG in the league but if you can’t score you won’t win games, which AN has alluded to a few times in his pressers. West Brom are testament to this. |
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2022 12:51:13 GMT
tachyon do we have a graph which shows xG over 2022 so far? Be interested to see how we are improving. Or not, as I'm sure you are hoping. |
|
|
|
Post by gawa on Nov 2, 2022 12:56:08 GMT
tachyon do we have a graph which shows xG over 2022 so far? Be interested to see how we are improving. Or not, as I'm sure you are hoping. Total shots on target, total shots and total shots conceded have all improved under Alex Neil which I pointed out yesterday  |
|
|
|
Post by Staffsoatcake on Nov 2, 2022 13:04:20 GMT
Not into graphs ect,the only thing that matters is scoring more than the opposition.
|
|
|
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2022 13:15:03 GMT
Or not, as I'm sure you are hoping. Total shots on target, total shots and total shots conceded have all improved under Alex Neil which I pointed out yesterday Yes but the quality of the chances we are conceding may have higher XG and vice versa for our shooting as you well know. |
|
|
|
Post by gawa on Nov 2, 2022 13:26:12 GMT
Total shots on target, total shots and total shots conceded have all improved under Alex Neil which I pointed out yesterday Yes but the quality of the chances we are conceding may have higher XG and vice versa for our shooting as you well know. I think it's probably quite similar to be honest overall. But WBA and Middlesbrough are both testament to xG not being the be all and end all. Like I said elsewhere. Another day we would have got 6-7 points in the last three. It's fine margins. |
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Nov 2, 2022 15:12:30 GMT
tachyon do we have a graph which shows xG over 2022 so far? Be interested to see how we are improving. Main viz is the last 10 games. Blue is xG created, Orange is xG allowed. Mini viz along the bottom is the last 40 games. So that takes in the 2022 calendar year. Stuck in a rut.  |
|
|
|
Post by gawa on Nov 2, 2022 16:11:30 GMT
tachyon do we have a graph which shows xG over 2022 so far? Be interested to see how we are improving. Main viz is the last 10 games. Blue is xG created, Orange is xG allowed. Mini viz along the bottom is the last 40 games. So that takes in the 2022 calendar year. Stuck in a rut. View AttachmentClear improvement in the last 5 games there. Hopefully that shows the last 3 we're maybe just unfortunate and we can keep the momentum going and hopefully get the 3 points tonight. |
|
|
|
Post by iamstokie on Nov 2, 2022 16:54:42 GMT
The most useless stat ever
|
|
