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Post by PotterLog on Nov 6, 2021 12:03:06 GMT
Christ we were all worried about relegation last week, 1 win and we are back on the promotion trail I would say bob hope and no hope of reaching 72pts, based on a squad that is not much better than the one that finished on 60pts last year and is a whole lot smaller. 50pts as quick as we can and if we make 50pts, not a given, then see where we are then. Need lots of quality in the window if we are going to be a team that gets anywhere near the top six No we don’t. This squad, with decent coaching and a bit of luck with injuries (plus tweaks in Jan), should be finishing in the playoffs. Last season too to be honest. And that’s not to say we’re a great team - fairly crap teams make the playoffs in this division all the time. All you need is some moderate solidity and consistency.
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Post by iglugluk on Nov 6, 2021 12:10:58 GMT
This summer without selling any players we should be in the best FFP position we've been in for a couple of years and naturally able to sign players. If we sell those players just mentioned then from an FFP position we'd be well off and likely similar spending capacity to a relegated prem team. MON would, if he wanted to, for the first time whilst being our manager be able to sign players that are at a good age and ready to instantly improve the team. We are making massive strides financially off the pitch and pretty decent ones on it. Probably end up with journey men , over the hill players if we sell the Crown Jewels, I’m not sure the Coates family want promotion It would be interesting to be a fly on the wall when they're talking about their aspirations for the club, that's for sure.
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Post by kustokie on Nov 6, 2021 12:42:39 GMT
Will it be enough for a play-off position? A simple calculation of points we've got so far suggests it won't, only once in the last 7 seasons has a team with less than 74 points made the play-offs (Swansea last season with 70). We will regret throwing 12 points away from winning positions so early in the season. Gouranga. There has to be significant margin of error in that extrapolation. In the absence of the actual data I’d estimate the confidence interval at approximately +/- 20%, which would make the extrapolated range 58-86 or about a 40% chance of making in the playoffs. Of course the CI will narrow as the number games played approaches 46. In addition it might be more relevant to look at the trend over the past five league games rather than the average over the whole season to date. That analysis would put us dead last. An another interesting analysis would be to determine the percentage of teams that make the playoffs who were in the play-off range with 1/3 of the games played.
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Post by kustokie on Nov 6, 2021 13:20:33 GMT
We will get promoted next season. Doubt it. Bursik, Campbell and Souter will likely leave in the summer if we aren’t promoted this season. It’s either this season or it’s a long wait. Souttar is a gem and just about any PL team would snap him up. He’ll go for a lot more than Collins. It is too early to put a price on either Bursik or Campbell. We haven’t seen enough of Bursik to set a price because goalies peak much later in the careers. There’s no evidence that Campbell will ever regain his previous form. He was early in his career and improving rapidly when he was injured. He may return to that trajectory or never be the same again. Only time will.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 6, 2021 13:31:16 GMT
Doubt it. Bursik, Campbell and Souter will likely leave in the summer if we aren’t promoted this season. It’s either this season or it’s a long wait. Souttar is a gem and just about any PL team would snap him up. He’ll go for a lot more than Collins. It is too early to put a price on either Bursik or Campbell. We haven’t seen enough of Bursik to set a price because goalies peak much later in the careers. There’s no evidence that Campbell will ever regain his previous form. He was early in his career and improving rapidly when he was injured. He may return to that trajectory or never be the same again. Only time will. I really don't get all the pessimism surrounding the Campbell situation. You'd be forgiven for thinking he was the first player in history to miss a season with an injury.
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Post by Widget123 on Nov 6, 2021 14:11:44 GMT
I think we'll make the playoffs. It's almost these days a poison chalice. The aim is to go up clearly but probably 2 out of 3 are straight down with a whimper. The sole saving grace of promotion with immediate relegation would be that it'd completely reset any FFP position. We got "lucky / clever" in managing to use the Collins sale to sort out the mess this season. A new set of prem monies would balance the bank and give us a new platform to build on (pragmatically!) if required.
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