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Post by GoBoks on Nov 21, 2019 17:46:21 GMT
From casual observation, it seems to me that GD is often an indicator of whether a team is in a "false position" in the league. I suppose that is reflective of a team being "lucky" and ekeing out a few 1 goal wins but getting thumped when they lose. There are so many mitigating factors of course, change of manager, return from injury (or to form) of key player/s, teams played, percentage of season played, etc. My Hypotheses is that GD during the middle third of the season could be a good predictor of a teams upward or downward movement in the table by the end of the season? Does anyone know if any serious actuarial work has been done on this as a potential indicastor of final league position?
Looking at stoke's current position, it would seem to indicate that we are not in a false position at all, but right where we belong! Based purely on this, Wigan, Stoke and Barnsley for the drop, while Preston WBA and Leeds going up. Biggest change from current position, QPR to fall significantly and end no higher than 16th and Birmingham to end no higher than 18th.
Worth considering as an indicator or doomed to the scrap heap of useless ideas?
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Post by walrus on Nov 21, 2019 18:50:09 GMT
Nobody but Jones will claim we’ve been anything but shit for the bulk of this season. The league position and goal difference are justified. The question is will we stay shit?
On paper we have a much better squad than our league position. If, and it’s a big if, O’Neill can get a tune out of it, we’ll quickly climb the league.
The next four home games are huge. Wigan, Blackburn, Luton, Reading. If we can’t pick up a decent number of points there then I fear we really are screwed.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2019 19:24:47 GMT
Nobody but Jones will claim we’ve been anything but shit for the bulk of this season. The league position and goal difference are justified. The question is will we stay shit? On paper we have a much better squad than our league position. If, and it’s a big if, O’Neill can get a tune out of it, we’ll quickly climb the league. The next four home games are huge. Wigan, Blackburn, Luton, Reading. If we can’t pick up a decent number of points there then I fear we really are screwed. 12 points.
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Post by mrcoke on Nov 21, 2019 20:26:18 GMT
Nobody but Jones will claim we’ve been anything but shit for the bulk of this season. The league position and goal difference are justified. The question is will we stay shit? On paper we have a much better squad than our league position. If, and it’s a big if, O’Neill can get a tune out of it, we’ll quickly climb the league. The next four home games are huge. Wigan, Blackburn, Luton, Reading. If we can’t pick up a decent number of points there then I fear we really are screwed. I agree. We have played all the teams in the top half of the season, and all the remaining fixtures in the first half of the season up to Christmas are against teams in the bottom half of the table. With all our wins being recent, we are mid-table in the current form table. We should be able to pick up points in the above fixtures, plus at Hull and Middlesbrough. I am not counting my chickens though. We were in a similar fixture situation during our relegation season. Hughes actually accumulated more points in the first 10 matches than most people expected with a victory over Arsenal and draw against ManU. I was the hopeful we would start to pick up points against less challenging teams, but it did not happen and we drifted down the table. The league table does not reflect the true picture of teams performance until the end of the season. Sheff Wed for example are handily placed, but when you look at the detail, they have picked up all their points against teams low in the table and they have played very few of the top teams. They could be where we are come Christmas.
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Post by GoBoks on Nov 21, 2019 21:25:15 GMT
Nobody but Jones will claim we’ve been anything but shit for the bulk of this season. The league position and goal difference are justified. The question is will we stay shit? On paper we have a much better squad than our league position. If, and it’s a big if, O’Neill can get a tune out of it, we’ll quickly climb the league. The next four home games are huge. Wigan, Blackburn, Luton, Reading. If we can’t pick up a decent number of points there then I fear we really are screwed. I agree. We have played all the teams in the top half of the season, and all the remaining fixtures in the first half of the season up to Christmas are against teams in the bottom half of the table. With all our wins being recent, we are mid-table in the current form table. We should be able to pick up points in the above fixtures, plus at Hull and Middlesbrough. I am not counting my chickens though. We were in a similar fixture situation during our relegation season. Hughes actually accumulated more points in the first 10 matches than most people expected with a victory over Arsenal and draw against ManU. I was the hopeful we would start to pick up points against less challenging teams, but it did not happen and we drifted down the table. The league table does not reflect the true picture of teams performance until the end of the season. Sheff Wed for example are handily placed, but when you look at the detail, they have picked up all their points against teams low in the table and they have played very few of the top teams. They could be where we are come Christmas. On further reflection ...... stuff trying to identify predictors. As a Stokie, I KNOW that we are destined for the very top ...... next year!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2019 21:37:46 GMT
Does anyone know if any serious actuarial work has been done on this as a potential indicastor of final league position? No, sorry.
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Post by Gods on Nov 22, 2019 0:21:02 GMT
I do agree I have observed over decades that Goal Difference is a major indicator as to whether you have just been a bit unlucky or are just plain no good. It's the best indicator there is as to your chances of turning things around.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2019 0:39:09 GMT
I do agree I have observed over decades that Goal Difference is a major indicator as to whether you have just been a bit unlucky or are just plain no good. It's the best indicator there is as to your chances of turning things around. But of course should there be a major change in circumstances (new manager and trainers) - stats that reflect the past can be totally irrelevant regarding the future.
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Post by Squeekster on Nov 22, 2019 9:59:22 GMT
It could also be argued that we have been unlucky and bad mistakes by players have cost us dearly.
We could easily have another 7-10 points on the board.
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Post by stokie223 on Nov 22, 2019 10:08:48 GMT
It could also be argued that we have been unlucky and bad mistakes by players have cost us dearly. We could easily have another 7-10 points on the board. We're 3 and a half months into the season. Nobody is at the bottom of the league after that time through bad luck, I'm afraid. Who signed these players? Who keeps picking them after making mistakes? Luck can be used as an excuse for losing a game, not for having 11 points after 16 games.
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Post by str8outtahampton on Nov 22, 2019 10:31:14 GMT
From casual observation, it seems to me that GD is often an indicator of whether a team is in a " false position" in the league. I suppose that is reflective of a team being "lucky" and ekeing out a few 1 goal wins but getting thumped when they lose. There are so many mitigating factors of course, change of manager, return from injury (or to form) of key player/s, teams played, percentage of season played, etc. My Hypotheses is that GD during the middle third of the season could be a good predictor of a teams upward or downward movement in the table by the end of the season? Does anyone know if any serious actuarial work has been done on this as a potential indicastor of final league position? Looking at stoke's current position, it would seem to indicate that we are not in a false position at all, but right where we belong! Based purely on this, Wigan, Stoke and Barnsley for the drop, while Preston WBA and Leeds going up. Biggest change from current position, QPR to fall significantly and end no higher than 16th and Birmingham to end no higher than 18th. Worth considering as an indicator or doomed to the scrap heap of useless ideas? Statistical Analysis. Not the greatest of Tangerine Dream's albums. But the above tracks were OK. I think "Serious Actuarial Work" was by Public Service Broadcasting.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Nov 22, 2019 11:02:42 GMT
People won’t like to hear it, but the best indicator teams have stats wise for predictions/regression/overperformance/underperformance is xG. That’s not to say it’s perfect or infallible or without exceptions but there’s a reason is used by bookies, scouts, mangers and sporting directors all over the planet. Bookies win all the time because they use “expected value” or outcomes to set their odds and xG is just in that model. Nathan overplayed his hand talking about it though.
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Post by Gob Bluth on Nov 22, 2019 12:48:23 GMT
People won’t like to hear it, but the best indicator teams have stats wise for predictions/regression/overperformance/underperformance is xG. That’s not to say it’s perfect or infallible or without exceptions but there’s a reason is used by bookies, scouts, mangers and sporting directors all over the planet. Bookies win all the time because they use “expected value” or outcomes to set their odds and xG is just in that model. Nathan overplayed his hand talking about it though. I think Jones really struggled towards the end of his reign after as you say overplaying his hand with it. We had a number of home games where we created absolutely nothing and if you're using this as an indicator in progression as soon as it goes the other way it must signify a regression. It is far from a perfect indicator but examples of Dean Smith's Villa when he was close to the sack show it's not a bad marker. Looking at the Jones example I think it can buy you a month or two but it just went on far too long. I am lead to believe that there is a metric called packing which shows passes that take out opposition players. This season I would hazard a guess that we as a team have not scored well in this area.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Nov 22, 2019 12:58:33 GMT
People won’t like to hear it, but the best indicator teams have stats wise for predictions/regression/overperformance/underperformance is xG. That’s not to say it’s perfect or infallible or without exceptions but there’s a reason is used by bookies, scouts, mangers and sporting directors all over the planet. Bookies win all the time because they use “expected value” or outcomes to set their odds and xG is just in that model. Nathan overplayed his hand talking about it though. I think Jones really struggled towards the end of his reign after as you say overplaying his hand with it. We had a number of home games where we created absolutely nothing and if you're using this as an indicator in progression as soon as it goes the other way it must signify a regression. It is far from a perfect indicator but examples of Dean Smith's Villa when he was close to the sack show it's not a bad marker. Looking at the Jones example I think it can buy you a month or two but it just went on far too long. I am lead to believe that there is a metric called packing which shows passes that take out opposition players. This season I would hazard a guess that we as a team have not scored well in this area. Packing is a good stat to look at who is actually effective in your midfield and defence at beating players with either passes or skill and you’re right it essentially counts how many opponents you’re removing from the game. It’s less predictive though with regard to results though. For instance the best left back by packing in the premier league is currently Ashley Young, but despite beating players he’s not actually producing much in terms of assists. You’re probably right, I imagine our packing stats from the defence are awful which is why we can’t seem to play through teams. I’ll say about stats what I’ve always said, you have to use a lot if you use any, they should complement each other and you should filter the eye test over all of them. For instance, I don’t think anyone needs stats to tell you that Andy Robertson is more creative at left back than Ashley Young, but the packing stats on their own would suggest otherwise.
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Post by robstokie on Nov 22, 2019 18:50:51 GMT
Nobody but Jones will claim we’ve been anything but shit for the bulk of this season. The league position and goal difference are justified. The question is will we stay shit? On paper we have a much better squad than our league position. If, and it’s a big if, O’Neill can get a tune out of it, we’ll quickly climb the league. The next four home games are huge. Wigan, Blackburn, Luton, Reading. If we can’t pick up a decent number of points there then I fear we really are screwed. 12 points. Think we need 12+ points from the next seven - apart from the aforementioned home games, it's Cardiff, Hull and Boro away - so, on top of at least 8 points at home, we should be aiming for at least 4 from the 3 away games. Anything less, and we are in really deep shit. Think tomorrow will be the acid test - this is exactly the type of game we've really fallen down in recently, where teams will come out and park the bus and pick us off on the break. Ideal situation is get an early goal and force them out a bit, but, at the same time, we can't really afford to leave too much space in behind or make silly errors if we don't get the rub of the green, as I can't see us coming back at the moment if we go behind.
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Post by GoBoks on Nov 22, 2019 19:39:36 GMT
People won’t like to hear it, but the best indicator teams have stats wise for predictions/regression/overperformance/underperformance is xG. That’s not to say it’s perfect or infallible or without exceptions but there’s a reason is used by bookies, scouts, mangers and sporting directors all over the planet. Bookies win all the time because they use “expected value” or outcomes to set their odds and xG is just in that model. Nathan overplayed his hand talking about it though. Do you have a link to a handy xG table for the championship?
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Post by GoBoks on Nov 22, 2019 19:40:22 GMT
I think Jones really struggled towards the end of his reign after as you say overplaying his hand with it. We had a number of home games where we created absolutely nothing and if you're using this as an indicator in progression as soon as it goes the other way it must signify a regression. It is far from a perfect indicator but examples of Dean Smith's Villa when he was close to the sack show it's not a bad marker. Looking at the Jones example I think it can buy you a month or two but it just went on far too long. I am lead to believe that there is a metric called packing which shows passes that take out opposition players. This season I would hazard a guess that we as a team have not scored well in this area. Packing is a good stat to look at who is actually effective in your midfield and defence at beating players with either passes or skill and you’re right it essentially counts how many opponents you’re removing from the game. It’s less predictive though with regard to results though. For instance the best left back by packing in the premier league is currently Ashley Young, but despite beating players he’s not actually producing much in terms of assists. You’re probably right, I imagine our packing stats from the defence are awful which is why we can’t seem to play through teams. I’ll say about stats what I’ve always said, you have to use a lot if you use any, they should complement each other and you should filter the eye test over all of them. For instance, I don’t think anyone needs stats to tell you that Andy Robertson is more creative at left back than Ashley Young, but the packing stats on their own would suggest otherwise. Do you have a link to a handy Packing Stats table for the championship?
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Post by Squeekster on Nov 22, 2019 19:57:35 GMT
It could also be argued that we have been unlucky and bad mistakes by players have cost us dearly. We could easily have another 7-10 points on the board. We're 3 and a half months into the season. Nobody is at the bottom of the league after that time through bad luck, I'm afraid. Who signed these players? Who keeps picking them after making mistakes? Luck can be used as an excuse for losing a game, not for having 11 points after 16 games. I never said we were bottom because of bad luck mate, I said we could easily have 7-10 points on the board with out bad luck. We are where we are due to bad tactics,poor team selection and miss use of players as most will agree but in a few games that we have lost we could of or should of drawn or won in my opinion,
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Post by tachyon on Nov 23, 2019 9:01:26 GMT
People won’t like to hear it, but the best indicator teams have stats wise for predictions/regression/overperformance/underperformance is xG. That’s not to say it’s perfect or infallible or without exceptions but there’s a reason is used by bookies, scouts, mangers and sporting directors all over the planet. Bookies win all the time because they use “expected value” or outcomes to set their odds and xG is just in that model. Nathan overplayed his hand talking about it though. Do you have a link to a handy xG table for the championship? Here's the xG created and allowed per game so far from Infogol. Includes last night's game and penalties. It's arranged in the most likely table order based on the xG differential. Blue is good, red isn't.
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Post by tachyon on Nov 23, 2019 9:25:51 GMT
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Post by GoBoks on Nov 23, 2019 12:50:07 GMT
Do you have a link to a handy xG table for the championship? Here's the xG created and allowed per game so far from Infogol. Includes last night's game and penalties. It's arranged in the most likely table order based on the xG differential. Blue is good, red isn't. View AttachmentInteresting , thanks! What does “Both teams to score -no” mean? I understand the first part, but why “no”?
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Post by tachyon on Nov 23, 2019 13:23:46 GMT
[/quote]Interesting , thanks! What does “Both teams to score -no” mean? I understand the first part, but why “no”?[/quote] That's from the app, correct? It means we think there is value in either Stoke or Wigan or both not to score on Saturday. Attachment DeletedIn terms of match result, we think a Stoke win is most likely, but aren't as confident as the bookmakers.
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