Half Season Review & A Prognosis For Promotion

[mrcoke]

Prompted by some recent threads and having reached the half season point, I have carried out a thumbnail analysis of this and the last 6 Championship seasons. 
Apologies if it is too lengthy for some, however I have included a summary and conclusion, for those only interested in a synopsis.

STOKE CITY HALF SEASON REVIEW & A PROGNOSIS FOR PROMOTION

Summary
Championship results for the last 6 seasons have been examined and Stoke's progress this season reviewed. To achieve a reasonable chance (1 in 3) of achieving promotion this season, Stoke need to average 2 points per match for the rest of the season to qualify for the play-offs in 5th place.
--------------

Past
  www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?league=england2&stats=22-stoke-city
The above link summarises the season to date, (note the progression line graph), and highlights the change in the results trend at match 11 against Bolton on 2nd October. The first 10 matches produced a return of 1 point per match, which if maintained for the rest of the season would have probably resulted in Stoke narrowly avoiding relegation.
Present
Since the victory against Bolton, the results have improved markedly with the last 13 games yielding 1.85 points per match. So far Stoke have failed to score more than 2 goals in any Championship match. Some other teams are losing more often but accruing more points because they win more often.
With the exception of QPR, teams on similar points to Stoke have superior goal differences.
Outlook
Projecting the recent (last 13) results performance forward for the rest of the season, Stoke could expect to accrue 42 more points by the end of the season. This would result in 76 points, that would almost certainly not achieve promotion. In the last 6 years no team has achieved automatic promotion with less than 79 points. Furthermore only one team (out of 24) that achieved less than 80 points in the last 6 seasons has been promoted from the play-offs, which was Crystal Palace in 2012-2013 with 72 points.

Automatic promotion
Based on the last 6 seasons, Stoke would need to achieve 89 points to be confident of automatic promotion, but in 2016 even this was not enough for Brighton, who finished third and lost out in the play-offs to Hull who finished 4th with 83 points.

To amass 89 points, Stoke would have to achieve 55 points in the second half of the season. Such a performance is almost unprecedented, the only team I have found to achieve >55 points in 23 consecutive matches is Reading in 2005-2006
The lowest points total to achieve automatic promotion in the last 6 years is 79 by Hull in 2013. That season the clubs were more evenly balanced than the last 5 seasons and the 1 point per game Stoke were averaging early this season would certainly have resulted in relegation, as it did for Wolves. So there is still a small ray of hope for Stoke as this Championship season is proving to be evenly balanced, but Norwich and Leeds results would have to deteriorate in the second half of the season.

Promotion via the play-offs
Based on the last 6 seasons, the average number of points needed to achieve 6th place and qualify for the play-offs is 74, but the range is very wide varying from as few as 68 (in 2013) to as many as 80.
The average number of points achieved by teams in 5th place over the last 6 seasons is 76, which is a far more realistic total to qualify for the play-offs and has been sufficient for 5 of the last 6 occasions.
76 points is clearly achievable, but it must be recognised that 3 out of 4 teams that qualify for the play-offs don't get promoted, and noted that no team achieving 6th place in the last 6 years has been promoted. This is hardly surprising as the 6th team has the hardest route to qualify. Any team has a chance to win a knock-out competition, but the league season is a true measure of a team's quality, and 6th best would appear not to be good enough to win the play-offs.
Only once has a team from the play-offs been promoted that achieved less than 80 points in the last 6 seasons. To accrue 80 points, Stoke would have to obtain 46 points in the second half of the season; a rate of 2 points per game, which Leeds and Norwich have achieved so far this season. Therefore it is achievable, but a further improvement in Stoke's results is required.
For the last 6 seasons, teams that achieve 4th place in the league, have generally achieved more than 80 points, so if Stoke were to get 80 points their most likely final position would be 5th.

Interestingly, in the last 6 seasons, there is no league position won the play-offs more often than the others; 3rd, 4th, and 5th have each won twice.
A review of promoted teams records also indicates that it does not automatically follow that teams that have had a strong finish to the regular season do well in the play-offs. In fact it often seems to be the case that a defeat or draws in the last few games of the regular season acts as a wake-up call to teams, and they do better in the play-offs.
What does not seem to occur very often is that a team has a late (last quarter of the season) successful campaign, just qualify for the play-offs, and then go on to win a place in the Premier league. Norwich, in 2015, and Fulham last season, had very strong second halves to their promotion seasons, but qualified comfortably in 3rd place for the play-offs with 86 and 88 points respectively, well beyond what Stoke could now realistically achieve. These are the only occasions in the last 6 seasons that the 3rd place team won the play-offs.
Based on this scant* data, it appears that it does not make much difference whether you finish 3rd, 4th, or 5th, the chance of winning the play-offs and being promoted is about the same, but less so if you finish 6th.

Conclusions
1. Stoke need to improve their current results performance to have any realistic prospect of promotion. The current results performance of the last 13 matches is probably inadequate.
2. Stoke need to achieve 80 points and 5th place to have a 1 in 3 chance of achieving promotion. In the last 6 seasons, no team achieving 6th place has been promoted, and only 1 team out of 24 have been promoted via the play-offs having achieved less than 80 points. This equates to averaging 2 points per match for the second half of the season.

*Footnote
I chose to examine just 6 seasons for reasons of practicality and time-scale to produce this note. I appreciate a larger sample of seasons would bring more accuracy to the conclusions. Ideally 20 sample years would be statistically sound, but the counter argument is that over such a long time period the nature of the game changes. Some people quote what happened with Stoke the last time the team were promoted, but it is arguable circumstances are not the same these days as in 2007-2008.

Appendix
CHAMPIONSHIP POINTS

Year     1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th      Year   1st   2nd  3rd  4th   5th   6th

17-18   99  90   88  83  76  75       17-18 2.15 1.96 1.91 1.80 1.65 1.63

16-17   94  93   85  81  81  80       16-17 2.04 2.02 1.85 1.76 1.76 1.74

15-16   93  89   89  83  78  74       15-16 2.02 1.93 1.93 1.80 1.70 1.61

14-15   90  89   86  85  76  76       14-15 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.85 1.65 1.65

13-14 102  93   85  80  73  72       13-14 2.22 2.02 1.85 1.74 1.59 1.56

12-13   87  79   77  75  72  68       12-13 1.89 1.72 1.67 1.63 1.56 1.48

Mean  94.2 88.8 85 81.2 76 74.2    Mean  2.05 1.93 1.85 1.76 1.65 1.61

Max   102   93   89  85  81  80        Max    102  93    89    85    81    80

Min     87   79   77   75 72   68        Min     87   79    77    75    72    68


Key: bold = promoted

[benjaminbiscuit]

Dec 23, 2018 0:44:15 GMT mrcoke said:

Prompted by some recent threads and having reached the half season point, I have carried out a thumbnail analysis of this and the last 6 Championship seasons. 
Apologies if it is too lengthy for some, however I have included a summary and conclusion, for those only interested in a synopsis.

STOKE CITY HALF SEASON REVIEW & A PROGNOSIS FOR PROMOTION

Summary
Championship results for the last 6 seasons have been examined and Stoke's progress this season reviewed. To achieve a reasonable chance (1 in 3) of achieving promotion this season, Stoke need to average 2 points per match for the rest of the season to qualify for the play-offs in 5th place.
--------------

Past
  www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?league=england2&stats=22-stoke-city
The above link summarises the season to date, (note the progression line graph), and highlights the change in the results trend at match 11 against Bolton on 2nd October. The first 10 matches produced a return of 1 point per match, which if maintained for the rest of the season would have probably resulted in Stoke narrowly avoiding relegation.
Present
Since the victory against Bolton, the results have improved markedly with the last 13 games yielding 1.85 points per match. So far Stoke have failed to score more than 2 goals in any Championship match. Some other teams are losing more often but accruing more points because they win more often.
With the exception of QPR, teams on similar points to Stoke have superior goal differences.
Outlook
Projecting the recent (last 13) results performance forward for the rest of the season, Stoke could expect to accrue 42 more points by the end of the season. This would result in 76 points, that would almost certainly not achieve promotion. In the last 6 years no team has achieved automatic promotion with less than 79 points. Furthermore only one team (out of 24) that achieved less than 80 points in the last 6 seasons has been promoted from the play-offs, which was Crystal Palace in 2012-2013 with 72 points.

Automatic promotion
Based on the last 6 seasons, Stoke would need to achieve 89 points to be confident of automatic promotion, but in 2016 even this was not enough for Brighton, who finished third and lost out in the play-offs to Hull who finished 4th with 83 points.

To amass 89 points, Stoke would have to achieve 55 points in the second half of the season. Such a performance is almost unprecedented, the only team I have found to achieve >55 points in 23 consecutive matches is Reading in 2005-2006
The lowest points total to achieve automatic promotion in the last 6 years is 79 by Hull in 2013. That season the clubs were more evenly balanced than the last 5 seasons and the 1 point per game Stoke were averaging early this season would certainly have resulted in relegation, as it did for Wolves. So there is still a small ray of hope for Stoke as this Championship season is proving to be evenly balanced, but Norwich and Leeds results would have to deteriorate in the second half of the season.

Promotion via the play-offs
Based on the last 6 seasons, the average number of points needed to achieve 6th place and qualify for the play-offs is 74, but the range is very wide varying from as few as 68 (in 2013) to as many as 80.
The average number of points achieved by teams in 5th place over the last 6 seasons is 76, which is a far more realistic total to qualify for the play-offs and has been sufficient for 5 of the last 6 occasions.
76 points is clearly achievable, but it must be recognised that 3 out of 4 teams that qualify for the play-offs don't get promoted, and noted that no team achieving 6th place in the last 6 years has been promoted. This is hardly surprising as the 6th team has the hardest route to qualify. Any team has a chance to win a knock-out competition, but the league season is a true measure of a team's quality, and 6th best would appear not to be good enough to win the play-offs.
Only once has a team from the play-offs been promoted that achieved less than 80 points in the last 6 seasons. To accrue 80 points, Stoke would have to obtain 46 points in the second half of the season; a rate of 2 points per game, which Leeds and Norwich have achieved so far this season. Therefore it is achievable, but a further improvement in Stoke's results is required.
For the last 6 seasons, teams that achieve 4th place in the league, have generally achieved more than 80 points, so if Stoke were to get 80 points their most likely final position would be 5th.

Interestingly, in the last 6 seasons, there is no league position won the play-offs more often than the others; 3rd, 4th, and 5th have each won twice.
A review of promoted teams records also indicates that it does not automatically follow that teams that have had a strong finish to the regular season do well in the play-offs. In fact it often seems to be the case that a defeat or draws in the last few games of the regular season acts as a wake-up call to teams, and they do better in the play-offs.
What does not seem to occur very often is that a team has a late (last quarter of the season) successful campaign, just qualify for the play-offs, and then go on to win a place in the Premier league. Norwich, in 2015, and Fulham last season, had very strong second halves to their promotion seasons, but qualified comfortably in 3rd place for the play-offs with 86 and 88 points respectively, well beyond what Stoke could now realistically achieve. These are the only occasions in the last 6 seasons that the 3rd place team won the play-offs.
Based on this scant* data, it appears that it does not make much difference whether you finish 3rd, 4th, or 5th, the chance of winning the play-offs and being promoted is about the same, but less so if you finish 6th.

Conclusions
1. Stoke need to improve their current results performance to have any realistic prospect of promotion. The current results performance of the last 13 matches is probably inadequate.
2. Stoke need to achieve 80 points and 5th place to have a 1 in 3 chance of achieving promotion. In the last 6 seasons, no team achieving 6th place has been promoted, and only 1 team out of 24 have been promoted via the play-offs having achieved less than 80 points. This equates to averaging 2 points per match for the second half of the season.

*Footnote
I chose to examine just 6 seasons for reasons of practicality and time-scale to produce this note. I appreciate a larger sample of seasons would bring more accuracy to the conclusions. Ideally 20 sample years would be statistically sound, but the counter argument is that over such a long time period the nature of the game changes. Some people quote what happened with Stoke the last time the team were promoted, but it is arguable circumstances are not the same these days as in 2007-2008.

Appendix
CHAMPIONSHIP POINTS

Year     1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th      Year   1st   2nd  3rd  4th   5th   6th

17-18   99  90   88  83  76  75       17-18 2.15 1.96 1.91 1.80 1.65 1.63

16-17   94  93   85  81  81  80       16-17 2.04 2.02 1.85 1.76 1.76 1.74

15-16   93  89   89  83  78  74       15-16 2.02 1.93 1.93 1.80 1.70 1.61

14-15   90  89   86  85  76  76       14-15 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.85 1.65 1.65

13-14 102  93   85  80  73  72       13-14 2.22 2.02 1.85 1.74 1.59 1.56

12-13   87  79   77  75  72  68       12-13 1.89 1.72 1.67 1.63 1.56 1.48

Mean  94.2 88.8 85 81.2 76 74.2    Mean  2.05 1.93 1.85 1.76 1.65 1.61

Max   102   93   89  85  81  80        Max    102  93    89    85    81    80

Min     87   79   77   75 72   68        Min     87   79    77    75    72    68


Key: bold = promoted

Exposes the performance for what it is totally inadequate to meet the owners expectation 

[Scrotnig]

Dec 23, 2018 1:23:10 GMT benjaminbiscuit said:

Exposes the performance for what it is totally inadequate to meet the owners expectation 

Well I believe the "owners' expectation" is to sit comfortably in mid table in the Championship, because this is less expensive than trying to maintain a Premiership team, so on that basis it meets the owners expectations perfectly.

[JoeinOz]

Dec 23, 2018 2:04:54 GMT Scrotnig said:

Dec 23, 2018 1:23:10 GMT benjaminbiscuit said:

Exposes the performance for what it is totally inadequate to meet the owners expectation 

Well I believe the "owners' expectation" is to sit comfortably in mid table in the Championship, because this is less expensive than trying to maintain a Premiership team, so on that basis it meets the owners expectations perfectly.

I disagree with that mate. On what basis do you think the owners would prefer to be mid table championship than in the Prem??

[benjaminbiscuit]

Dec 23, 2018 2:13:09 GMT JoeinOz said:

Dec 23, 2018 2:04:54 GMT Scrotnig said:

Well I believe the "owners' expectation" is to sit comfortably in mid table in the Championship, because this is less expensive than trying to maintain a Premiership team, so on that basis it meets the owners expectations perfectly.

I disagree with that mate. On what basis do you think the owners would prefer to be mid table championship than in the Prem??

Rare Joe and I agree but we do here , they have every reason to want us back in the premier league , the brand exposure is key and they’ve invested so much , and critically they are stoke supporters .

however the people they’ve charged with executing that return , show a lack of ambition and understanding of what it really takes , and their loyalty to those who have failed and failed is their Achilles heel .

[expectedtoulouse]

Contrary to modus operandi on this forum, this is a really well researched post and effort to discuss indisputable facts. Thanks for spending the time to provide us with this insight.

What we can conclude from this is we need to get our act together and win more games in the second half of the season. Providing we do improve on the performance of the first half of the season, which we should, and we make the play offs, then it will still be a tall order to get promoted.

Couple that with the manager persisting with a 4-5-1 defensive approach, with room for only 1 creative player, and the continued treatment of attacking players such as Bojan and Diouf, then the statistical probabilities of promotion are stacked against us.

People need to stop considering the play off places to be the holy grail.

[stokeson]

3 points Today

[Deleted]

This is a really good post. Good stuff.

I think there's an outside chance of making top six with the team we have, but that also means teams above us (and more than one of them) to have a lean run or two like we have. But with the team we have, I think we have a very, very slim chance of navigating through the play-offs should we make it.

Ultimately, we need 2-3 quality signings, at the back and front of the park respectively. And we need the manager to let them off the leash, or the players break the leash themselves.

Here's hoping.

[heworksardtho]

Dec 23, 2018 0:44:15 GMT mrcoke said:

Prompted by some recent threads and having reached the half season point, I have carried out a thumbnail analysis of this and the last 6 Championship seasons. 
Apologies if it is too lengthy for some, however I have included a summary and conclusion, for those only interested in a synopsis.

STOKE CITY HALF SEASON REVIEW & A PROGNOSIS FOR PROMOTION

Summary
Championship results for the last 6 seasons have been examined and Stoke's progress this season reviewed. To achieve a reasonable chance (1 in 3) of achieving promotion this season, Stoke need to average 2 points per match for the rest of the season to qualify for the play-offs in 5th place.
--------------

Past
  www.soccerstats.com/team.asp?league=england2&stats=22-stoke-city
The above link summarises the season to date, (note the progression line graph), and highlights the change in the results trend at match 11 against Bolton on 2nd October. The first 10 matches produced a return of 1 point per match, which if maintained for the rest of the season would have probably resulted in Stoke narrowly avoiding relegation.
Present
Since the victory against Bolton, the results have improved markedly with the last 13 games yielding 1.85 points per match. So far Stoke have failed to score more than 2 goals in any Championship match. Some other teams are losing more often but accruing more points because they win more often.
With the exception of QPR, teams on similar points to Stoke have superior goal differences.
Outlook
Projecting the recent (last 13) results performance forward for the rest of the season, Stoke could expect to accrue 42 more points by the end of the season. This would result in 76 points, that would almost certainly not achieve promotion. In the last 6 years no team has achieved automatic promotion with less than 79 points. Furthermore only one team (out of 24) that achieved less than 80 points in the last 6 seasons has been promoted from the play-offs, which was Crystal Palace in 2012-2013 with 72 points.

Automatic promotion
Based on the last 6 seasons, Stoke would need to achieve 89 points to be confident of automatic promotion, but in 2016 even this was not enough for Brighton, who finished third and lost out in the play-offs to Hull who finished 4th with 83 points.

To amass 89 points, Stoke would have to achieve 55 points in the second half of the season. Such a performance is almost unprecedented, the only team I have found to achieve >55 points in 23 consecutive matches is Reading in 2005-2006
The lowest points total to achieve automatic promotion in the last 6 years is 79 by Hull in 2013. That season the clubs were more evenly balanced than the last 5 seasons and the 1 point per game Stoke were averaging early this season would certainly have resulted in relegation, as it did for Wolves. So there is still a small ray of hope for Stoke as this Championship season is proving to be evenly balanced, but Norwich and Leeds results would have to deteriorate in the second half of the season.

Promotion via the play-offs
Based on the last 6 seasons, the average number of points needed to achieve 6th place and qualify for the play-offs is 74, but the range is very wide varying from as few as 68 (in 2013) to as many as 80.
The average number of points achieved by teams in 5th place over the last 6 seasons is 76, which is a far more realistic total to qualify for the play-offs and has been sufficient for 5 of the last 6 occasions.
76 points is clearly achievable, but it must be recognised that 3 out of 4 teams that qualify for the play-offs don't get promoted, and noted that no team achieving 6th place in the last 6 years has been promoted. This is hardly surprising as the 6th team has the hardest route to qualify. Any team has a chance to win a knock-out competition, but the league season is a true measure of a team's quality, and 6th best would appear not to be good enough to win the play-offs.
Only once has a team from the play-offs been promoted that achieved less than 80 points in the last 6 seasons. To accrue 80 points, Stoke would have to obtain 46 points in the second half of the season; a rate of 2 points per game, which Leeds and Norwich have achieved so far this season. Therefore it is achievable, but a further improvement in Stoke's results is required.
For the last 6 seasons, teams that achieve 4th place in the league, have generally achieved more than 80 points, so if Stoke were to get 80 points their most likely final position would be 5th.

Interestingly, in the last 6 seasons, there is no league position won the play-offs more often than the others; 3rd, 4th, and 5th have each won twice.
A review of promoted teams records also indicates that it does not automatically follow that teams that have had a strong finish to the regular season do well in the play-offs. In fact it often seems to be the case that a defeat or draws in the last few games of the regular season acts as a wake-up call to teams, and they do better in the play-offs.
What does not seem to occur very often is that a team has a late (last quarter of the season) successful campaign, just qualify for the play-offs, and then go on to win a place in the Premier league. Norwich, in 2015, and Fulham last season, had very strong second halves to their promotion seasons, but qualified comfortably in 3rd place for the play-offs with 86 and 88 points respectively, well beyond what Stoke could now realistically achieve. These are the only occasions in the last 6 seasons that the 3rd place team won the play-offs.
Based on this scant* data, it appears that it does not make much difference whether you finish 3rd, 4th, or 5th, the chance of winning the play-offs and being promoted is about the same, but less so if you finish 6th.

Conclusions
1. Stoke need to improve their current results performance to have any realistic prospect of promotion. The current results performance of the last 13 matches is probably inadequate.
2. Stoke need to achieve 80 points and 5th place to have a 1 in 3 chance of achieving promotion. In the last 6 seasons, no team achieving 6th place has been promoted, and only 1 team out of 24 have been promoted via the play-offs having achieved less than 80 points. This equates to averaging 2 points per match for the second half of the season.

*Footnote
I chose to examine just 6 seasons for reasons of practicality and time-scale to produce this note. I appreciate a larger sample of seasons would bring more accuracy to the conclusions. Ideally 20 sample years would be statistically sound, but the counter argument is that over such a long time period the nature of the game changes. Some people quote what happened with Stoke the last time the team were promoted, but it is arguable circumstances are not the same these days as in 2007-2008.

Appendix
CHAMPIONSHIP POINTS

Year     1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th      Year   1st   2nd  3rd  4th   5th   6th

17-18   99  90   88  83  76  75       17-18 2.15 1.96 1.91 1.80 1.65 1.63

16-17   94  93   85  81  81  80       16-17 2.04 2.02 1.85 1.76 1.76 1.74

15-16   93  89   89  83  78  74       15-16 2.02 1.93 1.93 1.80 1.70 1.61

14-15   90  89   86  85  76  76       14-15 1.96 1.93 1.87 1.85 1.65 1.65

13-14 102  93   85  80  73  72       13-14 2.22 2.02 1.85 1.74 1.59 1.56

12-13   87  79   77  75  72  68       12-13 1.89 1.72 1.67 1.63 1.56 1.48

Mean  94.2 88.8 85 81.2 76 74.2    Mean  2.05 1.93 1.85 1.76 1.65 1.61

Max   102   93   89  85  81  80        Max    102  93    89    85    81    80

Min     87   79   77   75 72   68        Min     87   79    77    75    72    68


Key: bold = promoted

That’s pisssed all over our bonfire then

[pb1863]

Thanks for doing this. Hopefully the football club know already and are prepared to get a couple of players in, in January

[scfcno1fan]

Very interesting analysis!

Looks like a very tall order to get promoted.

Those dropped points away from home will come back to haunt us.

[madmickthe3rd]

This is great research thank you.

On face value I thought, hey 2 points per game for the rest of the season is very achievable.

In reality, when looking at the stats, it is going to be very tough. The top two teams, Norwich & Leeds are averaging only 2.04 points per game. WBA in 3rd are averaging 1.82. Basically we are going to have to perform at Champion level for the second half to achieve 80 points which I think is way beyond us with the current squad and lack of a consistent goalscorer. If the board are looking at this then only substantial investment in january is going to give us any sort of chance of making the playoffs.

[nonameface]

Good analysis. It shows that our present form is more than likely going to be good enough to get us into the play offs, which considering the start we had is excellent.
Despite the last 6 years, the play offs are a lottery and whilst I get what the analysis shows we'd have a 1 in 4 chance of promotion.
That said,I expect us to start to pick up more points than we have and I'm convinced we will average over 2pts a game pretty soon, which if we don't achieve the apparently unachievable this year, sets us up perfectly to get promotion next season as long as we don't lose too many players.

[Deleted]

Thank you very much for an informative post.  In the words of Neil Warnock:

"I love stats, me"

[generationex]

Great analysis, although depressing!

For automatic promotion we’d need to win at least 18 from the next 23 games.

Even if we get to the play-offs it a lottery involving an Albion team that look miles better.

I only hope the owners have recognised that their strategic aim is highly unlikely to be achieved without better players now - and that they decide to invest heavily (and the manager wisely) next month. If they don’t they need to start planning for year two in the lower leagues, which involves the loss of Allen and Butland and diminishing income.

[mattador78]

So in summation we need to win more games

[march4]

Our biggest issue is at centre forward. We need a big strong, quick forward who knows where the back of the net is.

Instead we have two strikers who seem scared of their own shadows.

Biggest priority has to be finding a way to wriggle out of the Afobe deal.

[juiceandbits]

Dec 23, 2018 9:23:02 GMT theonlooker said:

Thank you very much for an informative post.  In the words of Neil Warnock:

"I love stats, me"

This sounds like a distinctly un-Warnocky quote.

[xchpotter]

Dec 23, 2018 7:33:08 GMT pb1863 said:

Thanks for doing this. Hopefully the football club know already and are prepared to get a couple of players in, in January

I’m sure they are. After all they knew a striker was needed in last Januay’s window and look how that went.😞

[lordb]

Dec 23, 2018 2:04:54 GMT Scrotnig said:

Dec 23, 2018 1:23:10 GMT benjaminbiscuit said:

Exposes the performance for what it is totally inadequate to meet the owners expectation 

Well I believe the "owners' expectation" is to sit comfortably in mid table in the Championship, because this is less expensive than trying to maintain a Premiership team, so on that basis it meets the owners expectations perfectly.

If mid table was the boards aim why spend £30m+ net in the summer with undoubtedly one of the highest wage bills?
What a ridiculous post.

[lordb]

Dec 23, 2018 10:12:54 GMT generationex said:

Great analysis, although depressing!

For automatic promotion we’d need to win at least 18 from the next 23 games.

Even if we get to the play-offs it a lottery involving an Albion team that look miles better.

I only hope the owners have recognised that their strategic aim is highly unlikely to be achieved without better players now - and that they decide to invest heavily (and the manager wisely) next month. If they don’t they need to start planning for year two in the lower leagues, which involves the loss of Allen and Butland and diminishing income.

Agree Albion are better, think they will win the division myself.

[cousindupree]

It's an interesting analysis thanks for posting.
It is possible for us to grind our way to the playoffs. Then what?
Referred to as a lottery but it's often fortune favours the brave like Fulham last year who turned over Derby with Rowett benching his leading goalscorer for the second leg.
The possible opponents for the playoffs are likely to include most of the current top six. Hoping for Derby or boro to be in that mix. Albion Norwich and Leeds at this stage are the stand out teams.

[StoKeith]

I’ve been trying to learn how to use NumPy and Matplotlib for Python and for practice I decided to use Stoke’s goals for and against and Stoke’s “expected goals” for and against as datasets.

Here’s a few graphs I made, based on that data. The “expected goals” data is from the Infogol app - it does tend to vary depending on the source.

Analyse these to your heart’s content. I think the most interesting thing I noticed is how after the bad start, we should have turned it around immediately, based on xG, but the results actually started improving when our xG against went higher than xG for. The difference graph really highlights that. It seems our opponents were creating more chances, but either due to bad finishing or improved goalkeeping (or a bit of both), we conceded less.

The 5 game moving average charts start at 5 on the x-axis as the first point represents matches 1-5, the second point is matches 2-6 and so on.

If you want to see other types of graph, I’m happy to make them for my coding practice.

Goals and xG for and against per match (Goals are dots, xG is bars):


Goals for and against moving average:


xG for and against moving average:


Goals minus xG (“difference”) moving average:

[CBUFAWKIPWH]

Dec 23, 2018 10:21:39 GMT march4 said:

Our biggest issue is at centre forward. We need a big strong, quick forward who knows where the back of the net is.

Instead we have two strikers who seem scared of their own shadows.

Biggest priority has to be finding a way to wriggle out of the Afobe deal.

We have two problems - creating chances and giving away stupid goals when in winning positions. The problem is nothing to do with the strikers - they aren't getting the opportunities.

Afobe is a perfectly decent centre forward at this level - but his natural game is more suited to counter attacking, At home in particular teams are sitting back and we're struggling to break them down. And that is't Afobe's fault - any striker would have the same problem.

I don't think we have the players to get the best out of 433. I think the strikers we have would benefit from a change in formation - maybe a 4411 or even 532 to give the strikers something more to feed off.

[mrcoke]

Dec 23, 2018 13:10:39 GMT StoKeith said:

I’ve been trying to learn how to use NumPy and Matplotlib for Python and for practice I decided to use Stoke’s goals for and against and Stoke’s “expected goals” for and against as datasets.

Here’s a few graphs I made, based on that data. The “expected goals” data is from the Infogol app - it does tend to vary depending on the source.

Analyse these to your heart’s content. I think the most interesting thing I noticed is how after the bad start, we should have turned it around immediately, based on xG, but the results actually started improving when our xG against went higher than xG for. The difference graph really highlights that. It seems our opponents were creating more chances, but either due to bad finishing or improved goalkeeping (or a bit of both), we conceded less.

The 5 game moving average charts start at 5 on the x-axis as the first point represents matches 1-5, the second point is matches 2-6 and so on.

If you want to see other types of graph, I’m happy to make them for my coding practice.

Goals and xG for and against per match (Goals are dots, xG is bars):


Goals for and against moving average:


xG for and against moving average:


Goals minus xG (“difference”) moving average:

Your comment about bad finishing by our opponents and improved goalkeeping struck a chord for me. Our improvement started when  Woods came into the side, Williams returning after being dropped, and improved form by Butland, Pieters, and Allen. But also there have been many occasions when our goal has had a charmed life. We could have lost on Saturday if Millwall had taken the chances we gifted them at the start and end of the match.
After Christmas I do a cusum graph to show the change(s) in result trends.

[Gods]

Nice work from the OP but I'm not sure why you twice insist our odds of promotion are 1 in 3 if we make the play offs, it will be 1 in 4.

Simplistically that is the reason we are now 8/1 with the bookmakers. Automatic is a dead duck, but we have about a 1 in 2 chance of making the play offs and from there a 1 in 4 chance, hence odds of 8 to 1.

[robwahlmann]

On the other hand, apart from the two top teams (Norwich and Leeds) it seems like everybody is beating everybody which makes it even more possible to achieve a playoff place. I'm a believer here!

[mrcoke]

Dec 24, 2018 21:46:38 GMT Gods said:

Nice work from the OP but I'm not sure why you twice insist our odds of promotion are 1 in 3 if we make the play offs, it will be 1 in 4.

Simplistically that is the reason we are now 8/1 with the bookmakers. Automatic is a dead duck, but we have about a 1 in 2 chance of making the play offs and from there a 1 in 4 chance, hence odds of 8 to 1.

Thanks Gods,
I know it is not statistically sound, but I'm postulating, on the basis of the last 6 seasons, that a team that finishes 6th isn't good enough to win the play-offs, and it makes little difference whether you finish 3rd, 4th, or 5th. Hence 1 in 3 - just a theory, I'd be quite happy for us to finish 6th and prove me wrong.

Regarding bookmakers odds, they are based as much on how much money has been placed on a team as their actual chance of winning. Heavy betting on a team (or horse!) will shorten odds but not increase the chance of winning.

[s8to]

Dec 23, 2018 10:15:04 GMT mattador78 said:

So in summation we need to win more games

That is evident from the league table. Contrary to popular belief our goals against is not dissimilar to the top clubs. Where we come up short is goals for. Defensive tactics, poor quality strikers, etc. Etc. You make your own mind up but the difference between where we are vs where we want to be is the goals FOR column. It's not rocket science!

[mrcoke]

Dec 24, 2018 22:16:58 GMT s8to said:

Dec 23, 2018 10:15:04 GMT mattador78 said:

So in summation we need to win more games

That is evident from the league table. Contrary to popular belief our goals against is not dissimilar to the top clubs. Where we come up short is goals for. Defensive tactics, poor quality strikers, etc. Etc. You make your own mind up but the difference between where we are vs where we want to be is the goals FOR column. It's not rocket science!

Oh! Yes it is!!!

Sorry, couldn't resist.

and goals FOR is dependent on shots on target IMO, which after 8 against Villa, our best of the season, dropped back down to 2 as against Ipswich.

As someone posted on the match thread at half-time, it's as though our players get fined for shooting at goal. I always remember Bobby Charlton saying in one of his autobiographies, one of the first things he was taught at United by the trainer Jimmy Murphy, was if you get the slightest chance of a shot at goal, hit the ball as hard as you can towards the target. The problem with a lot of players, Ince being one, is they want to set it up so they can "bend it like Beckham" into the top corner.