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Post by JurgenVandeurzen on Jul 30, 2018 20:44:20 GMT
Us, the fans? Or the bookies?
We're favourites with the bookies going into the season, but we as fans are still pessimistic. Is this just normal fans fearing the worst or lazy bookies just having a team just relegated as the favourite to go back up?
What do others looking in on our squad think of it? It would be interesting to hear their opinion.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 30, 2018 20:47:41 GMT
The bookies are basing it on being relegated and a few signings.
I think after how crap we’ve been and for the period of time that has happened in, people are right to be cautious.
Nothing seems to have changed with anything yet and we were all pretty agreed that massive changes were needed at the end of last season.
The bookies had us about 10th in line to go down last season too......
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Post by GoBoks on Jul 30, 2018 20:55:06 GMT
Us, the fans? Or the bookies? We're favourites with the bookies going into the season, but we as fans are still pessimistic. Is this just normal fans fearing the worst or lazy bookies just having a team just relegated as the favourite to go back up? What do others looking in on our squad think of it? It would be interesting to hear their opinion. Some so called "Fans" are pessimistic. The majority of (real) fans can't wait to get going no matter what the results. As for me, if I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times .... No other team in this division is going to get more than 107 points this season, so we will be going up as CHAMPIONS! |
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Post by Pricey on Jul 30, 2018 21:05:11 GMT
Us, the fans? Or the bookies? We're favourites with the bookies going into the season, but we as fans are still pessimistic. Is this just normal fans fearing the worst or lazy bookies just having a team just relegated as the favourite to go back up? What do others looking in on our squad think of it? It would be interesting to hear their opinion. Of the three relegated teams we've spent the most money, have a manager with significant experience of the league and haven't lost many of last season's squad (yet, although this may be a positive or negative). The teams still in the league from last season generally haven't spent much and/or are cutting their cloth due to financial constraints. If I was a bookie, I'd have us at slightly longer odds and at about the same as Middlesborough. In reality they're just covering their arses but there's no real reason anyone should be ahead of us in the betting. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2018 21:24:22 GMT
Us, the fans? Or the bookies? We're favourites with the bookies going into the season, but we as fans are still pessimistic. Is this just normal fans fearing the worst or lazy bookies just having a team just relegated as the favourite to go back up? What do others looking in on our squad think of it? It would be interesting to hear their opinion. Some so called "Fans" are pessimistic. The majority of (real) fans can't wait to get going no matter what the results. As for me, if I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times .... No other team in this division is going to get more than 107 points this season, so we will be going up as CHAMPIONS! Thanks for being so patronising. I’ve followed Stoke for c40 years, and have seen more thin than thick, so have every reason to feel apprehensive about the coming season. Maybe that’s why I’m a “so called fan”, but at least I know where I stand now. |
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Post by tony1234 on Jul 30, 2018 21:31:44 GMT
I find it amazing how slow both the media and bookies are with Stoke
Both lazy and uncritical for the past couple of years.
That said, i really think its genuinely hard to place us against others until the season is 10 games in.
+s - players inc N'Diaye, Etobo, Afobe, Allen, Bauer, Shaws, BMI, Butland are probably in the top 20 most desirable players in the league- we have 8 of them!
-s - we carry a recent legacy of mismanagement, squad unrest, dysfunctionality, lack of system and plan and a goal scoring problem.
+s - we have a good manager now, fit for purpose, who knows the league and competition, knows what it takes to succeed, and also connect back with the fans.
-s our wider club management have failed repeatedly in recent years - from youth team, to fitness, and transfers, and the culture has also been poor by all accounts.
Gawd knows. Would put us 10th on the basis of 'its in the middle'.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2018 21:59:51 GMT
Some so called "Fans" are pessimistic. The majority of (real) fans can't wait to get going no matter what the results. As for me, if I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times .... No other team in this division is going to get more than 107 points this season, so we will be going up as CHAMPIONS! Thanks for being so patronising. I’ve followed Stoke for c40 years, and have seen more thin than thick, so have every reason to feel apprehensive about the coming season. Maybe that’s why I’m a “so called fan”, but at least I know where I stand now. Come on you know you can't be a real fan if you don't agree with the crowd.   |
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Post by PolPotter on Jul 30, 2018 22:06:15 GMT
How often are the teams who get relegated from the Premier League rated so highly by the bookies the following season and how many actually go back up first time?
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Post by Gods on Jul 30, 2018 22:18:21 GMT
I suppose 'favourites' to win the title only means we are the most likely of 24 teams to win the title.
That does not necessarily mean its more likely to happen than not to happen.
So 'Anyone but Stoke' would be more likely to win the title than Stoke in the eyes of the bookmakers.
So in a way maybe we are both right, neither the bookmakers nor the Stoke fans think Stoke are more likely to win then title than not.
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Post by Pricey on Jul 30, 2018 22:31:29 GMT
I suppose 'favourites' to win the title only means we are the most likely of 24 teams to win the title. That does not necessarily mean its more likely to happen than not to happen. So 'Anyone but Stoke' would be more likely to win the title than Stoke in the eyes of the bookmakers. So in a way maybe we are both right, neither the bookmakers nor the Stoke fans think Stoke are more likely to win then title than not. You say that; we were 6/4 to get promoted (automatic or play-offs) when I checked the other day. Bonkers. |
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Post by fishlovesoatcakes on Jul 30, 2018 22:32:29 GMT
It's not just the bookies though is it? Take a look at other fan's views in different forums. They're all shitting themselves about us.
We had a team that was believed to be too good to go down but was mismanaged. Not many players have left and we seem to be strengthening in various positions. We have the best midfield in the championship by a country mile and the spine of the team is strong. We also have a very well respected manager who nearly got derby promoted with a much weaker team (in my humble opinion). It seems to me that the only people doubting Stoke are 'some' of its supporters but that's nothing new, is it?
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 30, 2018 22:38:02 GMT
I suppose 'favourites' to win the title only means we are the most likely of 24 teams to win the title. That does not necessarily mean its more likely to happen than not to happen. So 'Anyone but Stoke' would be more likely to win the title than Stoke in the eyes of the bookmakers. So in a way maybe we are both right, neither the bookmakers nor the Stoke fans think Stoke are more likely to win then title than not. You say that; we were 6/4 to get promoted (automatic or play-offs) when I checked the other day. Bonkers. 9/2 on sky bet now. Next best is 8/1. |
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 30, 2018 22:39:15 GMT
It's not just the bookies though is it? Take a look at other fan's views in different forums. They're all shitting themselves about us. We had a team that was believed to be too good to go down but was mismanaged. Not many players have left and we seem to be strengthening in various positions. We have the best midfield in the championship by a country mile and the spine of the team is strong. We also have a very well respected manager who nearly got derby promoted with a much weaker team (in my humble opinion). It seems to me that the only people doubting Stoke are 'some' of its supporters but that's nothing new, is it? Yeah the people who watched us and don’t trust said players one bit and can you blame us? |
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Post by scfcwebby on Jul 30, 2018 22:46:00 GMT
Us, the fans? Or the bookies? We're favourites with the bookies going into the season, but we as fans are still pessimistic. Is this just normal fans fearing the worst or lazy bookies just having a team just relegated as the favourite to go back up? What do others looking in on our squad think of it? It would be interesting to hear their opinion. Some so called "Fans" are pessimistic. The majority of (real) fans can't wait to get going no matter what the results. As for me, if I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times .... No other team in this division is going to get more than 107 points this season, so we will be going up as CHAMPIONS! Sorry #1 fan!! |
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Post by Gods on Jul 30, 2018 22:46:46 GMT
You say that; we were 6/4 to get promoted (automatic or play-offs) when I checked the other day. Bonkers. 9/2 on sky bet now. Next best is 8/1. I think that must be to win the title rather than to get promoted? Pricey's figures were to get promoted, we can't have slipped back that much I don't think. But either way it emphasises my earlier point, a 9/2 shot is not very likely to happen, like rolling a 5 sided dice and hoping it comes up as 3. |
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 30, 2018 22:49:59 GMT
9/2 on sky bet now. Next best is 8/1. I think that must be to win the title rather than to get promoted? Pricey's figures were to get promoted, we can't have slipped back that much I don't think. But either way it emphasises my earlier point, a 9/2 shot is not very likely to happen, like rolling a 5 sided dice and hoping it comes up as 3. Sorry yeah you’re right. 13/8 for promotion. 11/4 next in line. |
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Post by kustokie on Jul 30, 2018 22:50:21 GMT
Us, the fans? Or the bookies? We're favourites with the bookies going into the season, but we as fans are still pessimistic. Is this just normal fans fearing the worst or lazy bookies just having a team just relegated as the favourite to go back up? What do others looking in on our squad think of it? It would be interesting to hear their opinion. Neither. The odds are based on the total money staked. The odds go down as more money is placed on a particular event. That’s how bookies make money. Have you ever met a poor bookie? The only person I ever heard of that failed in the gambling business is Donald Trump and look how that turned! |
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Post by claytonscrubs on Jul 30, 2018 22:51:12 GMT
It's not just the bookies though is it? Take a look at other fan's views in different forums. They're all shitting themselves about us. We had a team that was believed to be too good to go down but was mismanaged. Not many players have left and we seem to be strengthening in various positions. We have the best midfield in the championship by a country mile and the spine of the team is strong. We also have a very well respected manager who nearly got derby promoted with a much weaker team (in my humble opinion). It seems to me that the only people doubting Stoke are 'some' of its supporters but that's nothing new, is it? Yeah the people who watched us and don’t trust said players one bit and can you blame us? Is this post a riddle? ^ I’ve read it 5 times now, and I still don’t understand what you’re trying to say? 😀 |
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Post by fishlovesoatcakes on Jul 30, 2018 22:53:13 GMT
It's not just the bookies though is it? Take a look at other fan's views in different forums. They're all shitting themselves about us. We had a team that was believed to be too good to go down but was mismanaged. Not many players have left and we seem to be strengthening in various positions. We have the best midfield in the championship by a country mile and the spine of the team is strong. We also have a very well respected manager who nearly got derby promoted with a much weaker team (in my humble opinion). It seems to me that the only people doubting Stoke are 'some' of its supporters but that's nothing new, is it? Yeah the people who watched us and don’t trust said players one bit and can you blame us? I think I understand what you're trying to say... Most supporters blamed the manager though. We now have a new manager, who nearly got a far weaker team promoted last season. I can understand why we're favourites to go straight back up. The supporters now need to have this belief, which in turn will rub off on the players. |
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 30, 2018 22:54:53 GMT
Yeah the people who watched us and don’t trust said players one bit and can you blame us? Is this post a riddle? ^ I’ve read it 5 times now, and I still don’t understand what you’re trying to say? 😀 Pouring scorn at the fact that people that have watched the shower of shit that is our squad try to play football are worried. And can you blame said people for not trusting those players that didn’t train right and didn’t give a fuck? They’re still here on the whole. |
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Post by bayernoatcake on Jul 30, 2018 22:56:50 GMT
Yeah the people who watched us and don’t trust said players one bit and can you blame us? I think I understand what you're trying to say... Most supporters blamed the manager though. We now have a new manager, who nearly got a far weaker team promoted last season. I can understand why we're favourites to go straight back up. The supporters now need to have this belief, which in turn will rub off on the players. They did but it’s clear as day that the squad took a shit load of liberties in spite of their talent. The players need to show they give a shit. And then we can go from there. Thankfully Rowett gets that from his comments thus far. |
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Post by claytonscrubs on Jul 30, 2018 22:57:23 GMT
Is this post a riddle? ^ I’ve read it 5 times now, and I still don’t understand what you’re trying to say? 😀 Pouring scorn at the fact that people that have watched the shower of shit that is our squad try to play football are worried. And can you blame said people for not trusting those players that didn’t train right and didn’t give a fuck? They’re still here on the whole. Thanks for clearing that up👍  |
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Post by Pricey on Jul 30, 2018 23:01:33 GMT
9/2 on sky bet now. Next best is 8/1. I think that must be to win the title rather than to get promoted? Pricey's figures were to get promoted, we can't have slipped back that much I don't think. But either way it emphasises my earlier point, a 9/2 shot is not very likely to happen, like rolling a 5 sided dice and hoping it comes up as 3. Still though, those odds for promotion offer no value do they? I'd probably give us a coin flip at promotion so hopefully we'll have a mediocre start and the odds will drift a bit. Pile on at about 5/2 in September I reckon. |
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Post by Gods on Jul 30, 2018 23:01:56 GMT
Us, the fans? Or the bookies? We're favourites with the bookies going into the season, but we as fans are still pessimistic. Is this just normal fans fearing the worst or lazy bookies just having a team just relegated as the favourite to go back up? What do others looking in on our squad think of it? It would be interesting to hear their opinion. Neither. The odds are based on the total money staked. The odds go down as more money is placed on a particular event. That’s how bookies make money. Have you ever met a poor bookie? The only person I ever heard of that failed in the gambling business is Donald Trump and look how that turned! The total money staked does make a difference but it is my no means the only factor in determining odds. There are a team of people employed by any bookmaker referred to as Traders, Risk Analysts or Odds Compilers. Their job is to produce odds that closely represent the chance of an occurrence. Those odds are then tweaked according to the money staked in such a way that the bookmaker has the best chance of making a profit on any eventuality. |
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Post by Gods on Jul 30, 2018 23:06:22 GMT
I think that must be to win the title rather than to get promoted? Pricey's figures were to get promoted, we can't have slipped back that much I don't think. But either way it emphasises my earlier point, a 9/2 shot is not very likely to happen, like rolling a 5 sided dice and hoping it comes up as 3. Still though, those odds for promotion offer no value do they? I'd probably give us a coin flip at promotion so hopefully we'll have a mediocre start and the odds will drift a bit. Pile on at about 5/2 in September I reckon. I agree. |
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Post by Pricey on Jul 30, 2018 23:15:06 GMT
Neither. The odds are based on the total money staked. The odds go down as more money is placed on a particular event. That’s how bookies make money. Have you ever met a poor bookie? The only person I ever heard of that failed in the gambling business is Donald Trump and look how that turned! The total money staked does make a difference but it is my no means the only factor in determining odds. There are a team of people employed by any bookmaker referred to as Traders, Risk Analysts or Odds Compilers. Their job is to produce odds that closely represent the chance of an occurrence. Those odds are then tweaked according to the money staked in such a way that the bookmaker has the best chance of making a profit on any eventuality. A good example of the process is when bookies get lazy and give blanket near-identical odds for scores across lots of games. So when we went on that crazy run (20+ games?!) of either winning 1-0, losing 1-0 or drawing 0-0 under Pulis in 04/05 there was essentially money for nothing. There's an element of laziness in our odds for the title, as there was in our odds to avoid relegation last season. Bookies do a lot to control risk but they don't always get it right. If anything I'd say the bet at the moment is for us to not get promoted. |
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Post by Gods on Jul 30, 2018 23:24:10 GMT
The total money staked does make a difference but it is my no means the only factor in determining odds. There are a team of people employed by any bookmaker referred to as Traders, Risk Analysts or Odds Compilers. Their job is to produce odds that closely represent the chance of an occurrence. Those odds are then tweaked according to the money staked in such a way that the bookmaker has the best chance of making a profit on any eventuality. A good example of the process is when bookies get lazy and give blanket near-identical odds for scores across lots of games. So when we went on that crazy run (20+ games?!) of either winning 1-0, losing 1-0 or drawing 0-0 under Pulis in 04/05 there was essentially money for nothing. There's an element of laziness in our odds for the title, as there was in our odds to avoid relegation last season. Bookies do a lot to control risk but they don't always get it right. If anything I'd say the bet at the moment is for to not get promoted. Yes, Stoke not getting promoted is I believe where the 'value' for the punter currently lies. |
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Post by Pricey on Jul 30, 2018 23:24:15 GMT
We're 8/13 to finish in the top 6!
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Post by mozzer on Jul 31, 2018 6:33:50 GMT
Pisser, when the press and bookies are negative about Stoke the oatcake sheep want to crucify the journalists for stereotypical lazy journalism and statistical analyisis gone wrong for the bookies
When the press give us a favourable outlook the sheep hang on every word and want to put their mortgage with the bookies
Without a further 4 or 5 top signings including a 12 to 15 goal a season striker.....
Mid table finish with the playoffs at best this year, still we beat Macclesfield
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Post by lawrieleslie on Jul 31, 2018 6:38:00 GMT
Us, the fans? Or the bookies? We're favourites with the bookies going into the season, but we as fans are still pessimistic. Is this just normal fans fearing the worst or lazy bookies just having a team just relegated as the favourite to go back up? What do others looking in on our squad think of it? It would be interesting to hear their opinion. I’m not a betting person but always thought bookies base their odds on betting trends. So placing Stoke favourites means many people are betting that Stoke are promoted. I could be wrong. |
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