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Post by tachyon on Mar 30, 2018 11:18:31 GMT
Here's the kind of statistics club analysts look at when evaluating players and their performances. It's a plot of so called expected goals and expected assists for each of our seasons from 2014/15 corrected for time played. Quick explanation. (skip if you're not interested) Players are credited for creating chances for others,(whether or not they are scored) and getting on the end of chances, (whether or not they score them). So if player A creates a one on one that's typically scored 60% of the time for player B, player A gets 0.6 expected assists and player B 0.6 expected goals, regardless of the outcome of the chance on the day. Idea is the outcome usually approaches the process in the long run. If you're getting on the end of chances, but not scoring, eventually reality will trend towards opportunity. (Although we do appear to have signed the biggest outlier in Premier league history). Our creative players are towards the top of the plots and our potential goal scorers towards the right. Players towards the top and the right are doing a bit of everything. Penalties are excluded. Here's 2014/15. The rest to follow. Attachment Deleted |
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Post by tachyon on Mar 30, 2018 11:19:11 GMT
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Post by tachyon on Mar 30, 2018 11:20:13 GMT
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Post by tachyon on Mar 30, 2018 11:20:46 GMT
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Post by GoBoks on Mar 30, 2018 11:56:21 GMT
Here's the kind of statistics club analysts look at when evaluating players and their performances. It's a plot of so called expected goals and expected assists for each of our seasons from 2014/15 corrected for time played. Quick explanation. (skip if you're not interested) Players are credited for creating chances for others,(whether or not they are scored) and getting on the end of chances, (whether or not they score them). So if player A creates a one on one that's typically scored 60% of the time for player B, player A gets 0.6 expected assists and player B 0.6 expected goals, regardless of the outcome of the chance on the day. Idea is the outcome usually approaches the process in the long run. If you're getting on the end of chances, but not scoring, eventually reality will trend towards opportunity. (Although we do appear to have signed the biggest outlier in Premier league history). Our creative players are towards the top of the plots and our potential goal scorers towards the right. Players towards the top and the right are doing a bit of everything. Penalties are excluded. Here's 2014/15. The rest to follow. View AttachmentThanks, not quite sure I believe any statistic that portrays Charlie Adam as a creative force, but you know what they say about stats. My take away from those graphs is that currently we are creating the square root of nothing and scoring even less than that.  |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 30, 2018 12:14:02 GMT
Is this using SIMCA multivariate analysis?
Fascinating tool to use.
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Post by borat on Mar 30, 2018 13:04:23 GMT
Say what you want about Adam but that left foot can create chances and it's backed up by the above, not saying start him by any means especially after what he's done recently.
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Post by andystokey on Mar 30, 2018 13:27:22 GMT
The most important stat on these charts is the shrinking values on the x axis year on year |
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Post by iglugluk on Mar 30, 2018 15:07:21 GMT
The most important stat on these charts is the shrinking values on the x axis year on year Precisely what I thought when looking at the graphs. It would be interesting to see a similar graph for..... say Swansea to see if the creation/finishing percentages are comparable in any way. |
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Post by tachyon on Mar 31, 2018 9:45:03 GMT
Charlie's potential assists are mostly crossed balls onto heads and set pieces. Our attacking creativity has shrunken, particularly after Arnie's departure. Combined with the awful defensive process, a relegation campaign was inevitable. This is what we're up against when we play Arsenal on Sunday. Attachment Deletedcheers for the heads up on SIMCA, it looks a neat package, PCA particularly is currently big in finding similar types of players from their advanced data. These plots are just done in R or excel before they go over to the app team for potential inclusion on later versions. |
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