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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 2:59:03 GMT
Back tested this for the last 6 weeks or so and had various degrees of success.
So bit the bullet and gone live this week.
Basically placed a quid on 100 individual games.
Mainly went for evens give or take a few points, and always went for favourites.
I reckon I will drop 30% each week.
So week 2 70 bets.
week 3 49 bets
week 4 34 bets
week 5 25 bets
And so on.
Each week, or round of bets the stake is the average of accumulated wins from previous rounds.
I am sure just going for favourites and using form and tables I can get 2 picks to week 10. Each one returning an average of about 800 - 1000 quid.
In all probability I will prob take it 5 rounds only and see what I have won, or indeed lost.
All games are English or Scottish only.
Have a punt....Even start at 10p a line and see how far you can take any lines.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 3:00:07 GMT
Will keep you posted...
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Post by ohbottom on Sept 29, 2017 6:41:47 GMT
I don't understand. It looks like you're expecting to lose 30% of your money per week, or is it 30% of your bets? How is this profitable?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 6:51:57 GMT
I don't understand. It looks like you're expecting to lose 30% of your money per week, or is it 30% of your bets? How is this profitable? I don't bring in extra money. At an average of 1/1 if I lose 30% of the bets I win 70%, so 140 quid goes to round 2. But this time I only place the amount of bets that I won on round 1. So 140 quid now on 70 bets. 2 quid a bet...Lets say I lose 20, but win 50. Round three now has 50 Bets at 4 quid a bet. Get to round 10, a last bet standing if you like and it pays big. Never keep the same teams obviously, but just roll yr winnings into the number of bets won previously. If I am still betting after 10 rounds starts to look serious... |
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Post by ohbottom on Sept 29, 2017 7:03:08 GMT
OK thanks for explanation. I wish you well with it.
I can see it being ok while you're backing a large number of bets, though I'd be surprised if you could consistently beat the bookie's margin, they have some pretty smart guys working out the odds.
The problem I foresee is that with a reducing number of bets you become vulnerable to being wiped out by just one or two anomalous results.
Keep us posted, I'll watch with interest. Good luck!
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 7:14:48 GMT
OK thanks for explanation. I wish you well with it. I can see it being ok while you're backing a large number of bets, though I'd be surprised if you could consistently beat the bookie's margin, they have some pretty smart guys working out the odds. The problem I foresee is that with a reducing number of bets you become vulnerable to being wiped out by just one or two anomalous results. Keep us posted, I'll watch with interest. Good luck! Cheers. The key is not losing too many early doors. 30 to 40% is ok... If I get to week 5 I am onto a winner..... |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 7:31:12 GMT
OK thanks for explanation. I wish you well with it. I can see it being ok while you're backing a large number of bets, though I'd be surprised if you could consistently beat the bookie's margin, they have some pretty smart guys working out the odds. The problem I foresee is that with a reducing number of bets you become vulnerable to being wiped out by just one or two anomalous results. Keep us posted, I'll watch with interest. Good luck! One other thing OHB is unlike an acca one rogue bet does not screw you. A single 5 bet acca for a quid at evens nets you 32 quid plus yr stake. My way, if you start with 5 singles at a quid, and manage to get one home after 5 weeks u still get 32 quid, but it obviously costs more, but IMHO has a better chance of surviving freak results or upsets. |
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Post by ohbottom on Sept 29, 2017 8:22:40 GMT
OK thanks for explanation. I wish you well with it. I can see it being ok while you're backing a large number of bets, though I'd be surprised if you could consistently beat the bookie's margin, they have some pretty smart guys working out the odds. The problem I foresee is that with a reducing number of bets you become vulnerable to being wiped out by just one or two anomalous results. Keep us posted, I'll watch with interest. Good luck! One other thing OHB is unlike an acca one rogue bet does not screw you. A single 5 bet acca for a quid at evens nets you 32 quid plus yr stake. My way, if you start with 5 singles at a quid, and manage to get one home after 5 weeks u still get 32 quid, but it obviously costs more, but IMHO has a better chance of surviving freak results or upsets. I understand it's not an acca, I was referring to where you said you thought you'd get one or two bets to week 10 - which would mean all your winnings resting on one or two coin-flips. Flip a coin a hundred times and you'd expect around 50% heads. Flip it twice and it's no real surprise if you get 100% tails! The crux, though, is you need to consistently beat the odds. Can you correctly predict a 50% chance 70% of the time..... |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 8:56:09 GMT
One other thing OHB is unlike an acca one rogue bet does not screw you. A single 5 bet acca for a quid at evens nets you 32 quid plus yr stake. My way, if you start with 5 singles at a quid, and manage to get one home after 5 weeks u still get 32 quid, but it obviously costs more, but IMHO has a better chance of surviving freak results or upsets. I understand it's not an acca, I was referring to where you said you thought you'd get one or two bets to week 10 - which would mean all your winnings resting on one or two coin-flips. Flip a coin a hundred times and you'd expect around 50% heads. Flip it twice and it's no real surprise if you get 100% tails! The crux, though, is you need to consistently beat the odds. Can you correctly predict a 50% chance 70% of the time..... Totally agree with coin flip, but with footy you can introduce some judgement, form, injuries, suspensions etc etc etc...as long as I don't deviate too far from evens it tips slightly in my favour. As long as it goes summat like this. 100 70 50 35 25 18 12 8 4 2 But then again it could go either way, either play out better, or indeed a lot worse... |
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Post by 3putts on Sept 29, 2017 9:26:08 GMT
People have been coming up with systems to beat the bookie for zillions of years that's why the bookies drive round in a big flash car or buy football clubs.
If a team is priced around evens then that suggests they aren't fancied to win
But good luck anyway
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 9:45:47 GMT
If you are betting EVENS shots then, you expect to win around 50% of the time (less if you account for bookie % over round)
if you tossed a coin 1000 times, you wouldn't expect to get 70% heads would you?
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Post by potterspele on Sept 29, 2017 10:28:00 GMT
Seems like a massive amount of work for little chance of gain to me.
Out of interest how long did it take you to find 100 individual bets around even? They must be spread over all sorts of bizarre leagues presumably?
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 10:55:43 GMT
Seems like a massive amount of work for little chance of gain to me. Out of interest how long did it take you to find 100 individual bets around even? They must be spread over all sorts of bizarre leagues presumably? All UK Based. Across 4 divs, Scotland, FA Cup and a bit of Non Lge. Not all evens, few odds on, a few slight faves, but all faves.... |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 10:57:21 GMT
People have been coming up with systems to beat the bookie for zillions of years that's why the bookies drive round in a big flash car or buy football clubs. If a team is priced around evens then that suggests they aren't fancied to win But good luck anyway True.... We'll see how it goes. If no good then I could always get a job at Retox....Bit of lippy i'd look ace.... |
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Post by 3putts on Sept 29, 2017 11:02:44 GMT
People have been coming up with systems to beat the bookie for zillions of years that's why the bookies drive round in a big flash car or buy football clubs. If a team is priced around evens then that suggests they aren't fancied to win But good luck anyway True.... We'll see how it goes. If no good then I could always get a job at Retox....Bit of lippy i'd look ace.... i thought you already worked there  |
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Post by 3putts on Sept 29, 2017 11:06:57 GMT
p.s. iwouldnt touch scotish football with a barge pole its too unpredictable that's why I stick to English football only [and I know fuck all about that tbh] the only viable bet in the prem this week is west sham to beat Swansea at 10/11 but even that's not guaranteed bonio might have a game when he remembers hes a footballer and nota liability lol
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 11:07:04 GMT
True.... We'll see how it goes. If no good then I could always get a job at Retox....Bit of lippy i'd look ace.... i thought you already worked there Only the breakfast shift |
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Post by 3putts on Sept 29, 2017 11:34:34 GMT
i thought you already worked there Only the breakfast shift breakfast served by you and lurch wearing only stockings and suspenders and lippy  think i will cancel my flight lol |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 29, 2017 17:20:31 GMT
breakfast served by you and lurch wearing only stockings and suspenders and lippy think i will cancel my flight lol Absolutely funny as fuck mate....Conna wait to see ya...LOL |
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Post by ratters on Sept 29, 2017 19:05:05 GMT
I often put £5 bets on games that are evens or above, but its all about picking the right ones. But what your saying is you never bank any money, so how would you pick putting all your money on your last 2 bets? or by that point would you put it on say a 1/10 to pretty much guarantee winning (although that still doesnt ring true as real at 1/12 cost me 2 weeks ago). The other night I had 4 quid on shrewsbury at 3/1 so won 16. But id say over time I win enough bets on singles (and doubles/triples) to stay in profit, but it just doesnt bring in big bucks, just allows me a decent bet each week. Id say my average may be over 50% for singles at evens or above (or at least the winnings are) but id say thats more down to my ability to pick (spotting a good one that should come in where the bookies you could argue are slightly off, notts county at home to lincoln last week at 19/10, was a banker in my eyes, as was ipswich on tuesday at 29/20) rather than a system.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2017 1:58:29 GMT
I often put £5 bets on games that are evens or above, but its all about picking the right ones. But what your saying is you never bank any money, so how would you pick putting all your money on your last 2 bets? or by that point would you put it on say a 1/10 to pretty much guarantee winning (although that still doesnt ring true as real at 1/12 cost me 2 weeks ago). The other night I had 4 quid on shrewsbury at 3/1 so won 16. But id say over time I win enough bets on singles (and doubles/triples) to stay in profit, but it just doesnt bring in big bucks, just allows me a decent bet each week. Id say my average may be over 50% for singles at evens or above (or at least the winnings are) but id say thats more down to my ability to pick (spotting a good one that should come in where the bookies you could argue are slightly off, notts county at home to lincoln last week at 19/10, was a banker in my eyes, as was ipswich on tuesday at 29/20) rather than a system. That's a very good question.... Obviously saying and doing are 2 different things, but when come to match selection I will start at the top of the list, ie Prem Games 1st, Championship etc etc etc. And as 3Puts said avoid Scotland, though having said that 2 matches last night...QPR my 1st eliminated one, Rangers won so I have at least 1 bet in Round 2....Round 8 is my goal.... |
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Post by ratters on Sept 30, 2017 9:40:28 GMT
Keep us posted with how you go. For me Stevenage at home to vale is a shoe in at 23/20 and accrington at forest green should be a goer at evens. Bradford a very good odds for being at home, as are cardiff, but again its what you fancy
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Post by shipshape on Sept 30, 2017 9:43:57 GMT
Anyone who can predict 70% of even money shots correctly doesn't need a system. They need a yacht.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2017 0:53:27 GMT
Anyone who can predict 70% of even money shots correctly doesn't need a system. They need a yacht. 58%. 42 games failed, 58 progress to the next round. As long as I do not lose more than half each round I am fine. Would you recommend sailing yacht or motor yacht... |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2017 0:56:48 GMT
And at that rate of fall out I should get to week 9 or 10.
And depending on size of previous wins week before should be 4 figures.
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Post by shipshape on Oct 1, 2017 9:33:25 GMT
Anyone who can predict 70% of even money shots correctly doesn't need a system. They need a yacht. 58%. 42 games failed, 58 progress to the next round. As long as I do not lose more than half each round I am fine. Would you recommend sailing yacht or motor yacht... Definitely one with a motor. Otherwise you'll go nowhere when the wind stops. Good Luck. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2017 4:15:55 GMT
Got 4 through to rnd 5 and cashed out 180 quid....
Banked the 80.
Started again yesterday with another 100.
got 59 through to round 2....Reckon I will drop 20 today...
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2017 9:02:40 GMT
2 games in.
1 thru to rnd 3...1 out...Round 4 , 5 & 6 is where the action is. Get 4 to the end of rnd 6...680 quid roughly. Unless of course I bottle it...
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Post by GrahamHyde on Oct 8, 2017 13:44:15 GMT
If you are betting EVENS shots then, you expect to win around 50% of the time (less if you account for bookie % over round) if you tossed a coin 1000 times, you wouldn't expect to get 70% heads would you? No, you wouldn't, but it wouldn't be implausible. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 8, 2017 14:54:22 GMT
If you are betting EVENS shots then, you expect to win around 50% of the time (less if you account for bookie % over round) if you tossed a coin 1000 times, you wouldn't expect to get 70% heads would you? No, you wouldn't, but it wouldn't be implausible. 0.000001 % chance |
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think i will cancel my flight lol
