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Post by ukcstokie on Jul 26, 2015 11:41:41 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33668002So, if the Scottish referendum had gone the way the SNP wanted, would they have been insisting on more votes to check if the Scots still wanted to leave? The referendum has turned from once in a generation, to inevitable and when Sturgeon wants it. Just because the current voting system allows them to dominate the Scottish MPs (more people voted against the SNP than for it at the last General Election), they think their mandate for independence has been backed.
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 26, 2015 12:50:36 GMT
The so called "Neverendum".
Tricky time for the SNP coming up. Scottish Elections next year. Do they include in their manifesto a commitment for another referendum? There are good reasons for doing it - well one really - exploit their current electorate popularity. But there are risks - like they haven't fixed the issues with their last campaign, particularly surrounding the currency. Add to which the dilution effect of repeat referendums. Why would a wavering No voter go Yes when they know another one wil be along later.
In this regard, the SNP then have two huge risks to consider. First they alienate SNP voters who voted No - ie those people who think they are a competent Holyrood administration but want to stay in the Union. Second, if they do get a second referndum they get a worse result than the first one.
Both of these are very dangerous to the SNP in terms of maintaining the political power they currently hold. They have to be see if they want to take the risk of losing everything.
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Post by harryburrows on Jul 26, 2015 12:57:14 GMT
They should keep their powder dry until the after the EU vote . Will the EU vote in Scotland be made known ? What is the timescale for Devomax
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Post by bigjohnritchie on Jul 26, 2015 13:16:57 GMT
Patrick, you will know better but from where I am standing it seems that the SNP are generally doing a good job, acceptable to the Scots.Just the single issue of tuition fees as part of Holyrood seems attractive, my lad us at University.
To me they seem to be playing it right ( from their perspective ) in Westminster.
As this term and possibly the next progresses I think that the gulf between SNP and the Tories can only widen, they will lead the Government into traps and they will emphasise to the Scottish electorate that Parliament does not represent them....which it doesn't. I think that they will eventually leave , except for one factor...I think that the EU will make it clear that they will not be able to join as an independent country.
As you say, what they will do if ( a big "if") the Uk votes out is hard to predict.
All guesswork mind.
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Post by starkiller on Jul 26, 2015 17:18:29 GMT
Well the EU know all about such an approach.
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Post by salopstick on Jul 26, 2015 17:28:14 GMT
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-33668002So, if the Scottish referendum had gone the way the SNP wanted, would they have been insisting on more votes to check if the Scots still wanted to leave? The referendum has turned from once in a generation, to inevitable and when Sturgeon wants it. Just because the current voting system allows them to dominate the Scottish MPs (more people voted against the SNP than for it at the last General Election), they think their mandate for independence has been backed. Lord Sewel likes this |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2015 17:53:19 GMT
Didn't the Irish govt do a similar thing some years back.
Democracy but not as we know it
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Post by Gods on Jul 26, 2015 19:22:01 GMT
The OP is right, while the SNP won all the seats in the election just gone in fact more people voted for pro Unionists parties than anti so it's not a platform for another referendum despite what the insufferably smug Mr. Salmond might have you believe.
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Post by ukcstokie on Jul 26, 2015 19:39:35 GMT
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 26, 2015 19:50:56 GMT
The OP is right, while the SNP won all the seats in the election just gone in fact more people voted for pro Unionists parties than anti so it's not a platform for another referendum despite what the insufferably smug Mr. Salmond might have you believe. The SNP got 50.0% of the vote in the 2015 election - add to that the Greens, who were pro-independence, and you can see the pro-Union parties were in the minority at the last election. This, along with winning all but three seats North if the border is why the SNP are so bullish. And there's no more bullish politician than Big Eck. Trying to figure what that means in terms of support for a rapid fire second referendum is an issue though for the SNP, despite Salmond's bluster, for the reasons mentionend above. |
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Post by Gods on Jul 26, 2015 21:12:38 GMT
The OP is right, while the SNP won all the seats in the election just gone in fact more people voted for pro Unionists parties than anti so it's not a platform for another referendum despite what the insufferably smug Mr. Salmond might have you believe. The SNP got 50.0% of the vote in the 2015 election - add to that the Greens, who were pro-independence, and you can see the pro-Union parties were in the minority at the last election. This, along with winning all but three seats North if the border is why the SNP are so bullish. And there's no more bullish politician than Big Eck. Trying to figure what that means in terms of support for a rapid fire second referendum is an issue though for the SNP, despite Salmond's bluster, for the reasons mentionend above. Okay it's very marginal and not all SNP voters would support independence anyway, not by any means as we just saw in the real referendum. Fact is Salmond got the exact date and the exact wording he wanted for the referendum but he was not able to carry the good folk of Scotland along with him. This screams out 'sore loser' loud and clear so the fat puffed up fuck can fuck off  In fact he has a real cheek. He lost his vote and now the only item on his agenda is how much money he can extort out of the treasury and get shipped north of the border. You just get this urge to chin him whenever you see his smug, supercilious smile on your television set  |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 26, 2015 23:42:38 GMT
The SNP got 50.0% of the vote in the 2015 election - add to that the Greens, who were pro-independence, and you can see the pro-Union parties were in the minority at the last election. This, along with winning all but three seats North if the border is why the SNP are so bullish. And there's no more bullish politician than Big Eck. Trying to figure what that means in terms of support for a rapid fire second referendum is an issue though for the SNP, despite Salmond's bluster, for the reasons mentionend above. Okay it's very marginal and not all SNP voters would support independence anyway, not by any means as we just saw in the real referendum. Fact is Salmond got the exact date and the exact wording he wanted for the referendum but he was not able to carry the good folk of Scotland along with him. This screams out 'sore loser' loud and clear so the fat puffed up fuck can fuck off In fact he has a real cheek. He lost his vote and now the only item on his agenda is how much money he can extort out of the treasury and get shipped north of the border. You just get this urge to chin him whenever you see his smug, supercilious smile on your television set Belt him Gods ! |
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Post by Gods on Jul 26, 2015 23:47:54 GMT
Okay it's very marginal and not all SNP voters would support independence anyway, not by any means as we just saw in the real referendum. Fact is Salmond got the exact date and the exact wording he wanted for the referendum but he was not able to carry the good folk of Scotland along with him. This screams out 'sore loser' loud and clear so the fat puffed up fuck can fuck off In fact he has a real cheek. He lost his vote and now the only item on his agenda is how much money he can extort out of the treasury and get shipped north of the border. You just get this urge to chin him whenever you see his smug, supercilious smile on your television set Belt him Gods ! Did I say I have a bit of a downer on this fella ?!  He has that knack of sounding right about everything but you know he is wrong yet you can't always immediately put your finger on exactly why! |
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Post by ukcstokie on Jul 27, 2015 0:37:25 GMT
Belt him Gods ! Did I say I have a bit of a downer on this fella ?! He has that knack of sounding right about everything but you know he is wrong yet you can't always immediately put your finger on exactly why! Leave Partick alone!  I think Cameron had an ulterior motive in pretty much agreeing to every demand the SNP had on the referendum (timing, voting age, eligibility to vote, etc.). Even with all of that the SNP still lost. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2015 0:50:14 GMT
Belt him Gods ! Did I say I have a bit of a downer on this fella ?! He has that knack of sounding right about everything but you know he is wrong yet you can't always immediately put your finger on exactly why! It know exactly what you mean . |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2015 0:53:03 GMT
Did I say I have a bit of a downer on this fella ?! He has that knack of sounding right about everything but you know he is wrong yet you can't always immediately put your finger on exactly why! Leave Partick alone! I think Cameron had an ulterior motive in pretty much agreeing to every demand the SNP had on the referendum (timing, voting age, eligibility to vote, etc.). Even with all of that the SNP still lost. Really ? What motive would thar have been ....? |
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 27, 2015 5:46:37 GMT
Did I say I have a bit of a downer on this fella ?! He has that knack of sounding right about everything but you know he is wrong yet you can't always immediately put your finger on exactly why! Leave Partick alone! I think Cameron had an ulterior motive in pretty much agreeing to every demand the SNP had on the referendum (timing, voting age, eligibility to vote, etc.). Even with all of that the SNP still lost. Back to Big Eck. He been a colossus in the small pond that is Scottish politics. He has dominated his local opposition taking advantage of Labour's principle talent preferring Westminster to Holyrood (which also applie to the Lib Dems - or rather did!) and the general feebleness of the Tory party in Scotland. In short he had a free reign for a long time up here. In fairness, it should be said, he is also a very high calibre politician. But not without fault. And his dominance plays badly to his biggest weakness. Hubris. This guy loves himself. What he says goes. Only it doesn't. Not all the time. Particularly when he's up against smart opponents - something he ain't used to and his hubris leads him to underestimating opposition arguments. As, for example, Osbourne did on the currency during the referendum. His response on that occassion was feeble and unconvincing. As you say Cameron using the outcome of the Scottish vote to put EVEL at the top of the political vote was astute politics. Particularly after Labour left the vexed West Lothian Question unresolved for years after creating the problem in the first place. I'm not sure though that Cameron was so wise with the terms of the Scottish referendum. He really had no choice. I think he got worried though when the vote looked like it was going to be close. So is this just hot air from Salmond? I doubt it. He's just floating the idea to see what the response is North of the border. Is it a vote winner or not? If they think it is, they'll go for it. If not, beyond a commitment to hold a referendum in the event the Europe vote for the UK goes for a Brexit but Scotland votes to stay in, it won't be in. Which is what I think will happen. |
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Post by ukcstokie on Jul 27, 2015 8:30:38 GMT
Leave Partick alone! I think Cameron had an ulterior motive in pretty much agreeing to every demand the SNP had on the referendum (timing, voting age, eligibility to vote, etc.). Even with all of that the SNP still lost. Really ? What motive would thar have been ....? I think Cameron supports the Union, but losing ~59 opposition MPs was always going to soften the blow. |
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Post by ukcstokie on Jul 27, 2015 8:32:05 GMT
Leave Partick alone! I think Cameron had an ulterior motive in pretty much agreeing to every demand the SNP had on the referendum (timing, voting age, eligibility to vote, etc.). Even with all of that the SNP still lost. Back to Big Eck. He been a colossus in the small pond that is Scottish politics. He has dominated his local opposition taking advantage of Labour's principle talent preferring Westminster to Holyrood (which also applie to the Lib Dems - or rather did!) and the general feebleness of the Tory party in Scotland. In short he had a free reign for a long time up here. In fairness, it should be said, he is also a very high calibre politician. But not without fault. And his dominance plays badly to his biggest weakness. Hubris. This guy loves himself. What he says goes. Only it doesn't. Not all the time. Particularly when he's up against smart opponents - something he ain't used to and his hubris leads him to underestimating opposition arguments. As, for example, Osbourne did on the currency during the referendum. His response on that occassion was feeble and unconvincing. As you say Cameron using the outcome of the Scottish vote to put EVEL at the top of the political vote was astute politics. Particularly after Labour left the vexed West Lothian Question unresolved for years after creating the problem in the first place. I'm not sure though that Cameron was so wise with the terms of the Scottish referendum. He really had no choice. I think he got worried though when the vote looked like it was going to be close. So is this just hot air from Salmond? I doubt it. He's just floating the idea to see what the response is North of the border. Is it a vote winner or not? If they think it is, they'll go for it. If not, beyond a commitment to hold a referendum in the event the Europe vote for the UK goes for a Brexit but Scotland votes to stay in, it won't be in. Which is what I think will happen. Thanks PP. So has there been much reaction so far to Salmond testing the water? |
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Post by Gods on Jul 27, 2015 9:41:52 GMT
Leave Partick alone! I think Cameron had an ulterior motive in pretty much agreeing to every demand the SNP had on the referendum (timing, voting age, eligibility to vote, etc.). Even with all of that the SNP still lost. Back to Big Eck. He been a colossus in the small pond that is Scottish politics. He has dominated his local opposition taking advantage of Labour's principle talent preferring Westminster to Holyrood (which also applie to the Lib Dems - or rather did!) and the general feebleness of the Tory party in Scotland. In short he had a free reign for a long time up here. In fairness, it should be said, he is also a very high calibre politician. But not without fault. And his dominance plays badly to his biggest weakness. Hubris. This guy loves himself. What he says goes. Only it doesn't. Not all the time. Particularly when he's up against smart opponents - something he ain't used to and his hubris leads him to underestimating opposition arguments. As, for example, Osbourne did on the currency during the referendum. His response on that occassion was feeble and unconvincing. As you say Cameron using the outcome of the Scottish vote to put EVEL at the top of the political vote was astute politics. Particularly after Labour left the vexed West Lothian Question unresolved for years after creating the problem in the first place. I'm not sure though that Cameron was so wise with the terms of the Scottish referendum. He really had no choice. I think he got worried though when the vote looked like it was going to be close. So is this just hot air from Salmond? I doubt it. He's just floating the idea to see what the response is North of the border. Is it a vote winner or not? If they think it is, they'll go for it. If not, beyond a commitment to hold a referendum in the event the Europe vote for the UK goes for a Brexit but Scotland votes to stay in, it won't be in. Which is what I think will happen. Good post. I think the Conservatives/Lib Dems and Labour all over reacted when the polls showed the referendum vote as close and then over committed on further Scottish devolution which a failure to deliver is now the basis behind Salmond's call for another referendum. There really wasn't any need to do this. I always turn to the bookmakers at election times not the pollsters and they never gave a "Yes" to independence vote an earthly. They have a business to run and tend to factor in things which the pollsters can't (e.g. "No" voters were not nearly as mouthy as "Yes" voters and felt intimidated to declare their intentions) and so they tend to get stuff right. I still haven't figured why the Scots no longer vote Tory, is it simply being seen to be somehow pro English? Not that long ago they would vote Tory in greater percentages in Scotland than in England. Hard working, financially savvy, folks that they are, the Highland and Edinburgh financial services seats were nailed on Tory every time. I guess Tory is a spoiled brand there now, is there some place for a centre/right party of a different name? At the moment all options appear to be tax and spend merchants and I refuse to believe that is what all Scots want, its a proud nation right. |
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Post by Northy on Jul 27, 2015 9:53:27 GMT
He needs to sort his eyebrows out to be taken seriously , it's like a couple of slugs crawling acros his forehead
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Post by basingstokie on Jul 27, 2015 10:09:45 GMT
They'll leave eventually because Sturgeon has made it pretty clear that they are going to be a disruptive influence in Parliament until they get what they want.
Eventually The English people and Cameron will have had enough and just cease resistance.
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Post by ukcstokie on Jul 27, 2015 10:19:23 GMT
They'll leave eventually because Sturgeon has made it pretty clear that they are going to be a disruptive influence in Parliament until they get what they want. Eventually The English people and Cameron will have had enough and just cease resistance. ...or maybe just introduce some type of PR and they'll disappear into obscurity. 5th largest party in the UK, with the Greens pushing them hard. |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 27, 2015 10:51:43 GMT
Really ? What motive would thar have been ....? I think Cameron supports the Union, but losing ~59 opposition MPs was always going to soften the blow. Possibly true , but knowing further down line that it will inevitably lead to another referendum in a few years time .....lesser of the two evils as far as he was concerned o you think ? |
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Post by ukcstokie on Jul 27, 2015 11:01:35 GMT
Back to Big Eck. He been a colossus in the small pond that is Scottish politics. He has dominated his local opposition taking advantage of Labour's principle talent preferring Westminster to Holyrood (which also applie to the Lib Dems - or rather did!) and the general feebleness of the Tory party in Scotland. In short he had a free reign for a long time up here. In fairness, it should be said, he is also a very high calibre politician. But not without fault. And his dominance plays badly to his biggest weakness. Hubris. This guy loves himself. What he says goes. Only it doesn't. Not all the time. Particularly when he's up against smart opponents - something he ain't used to and his hubris leads him to underestimating opposition arguments. As, for example, Osbourne did on the currency during the referendum. His response on that occassion was feeble and unconvincing. As you say Cameron using the outcome of the Scottish vote to put EVEL at the top of the political vote was astute politics. Particularly after Labour left the vexed West Lothian Question unresolved for years after creating the problem in the first place. I'm not sure though that Cameron was so wise with the terms of the Scottish referendum. He really had no choice. I think he got worried though when the vote looked like it was going to be close. So is this just hot air from Salmond? I doubt it. He's just floating the idea to see what the response is North of the border. Is it a vote winner or not? If they think it is, they'll go for it. If not, beyond a commitment to hold a referendum in the event the Europe vote for the UK goes for a Brexit but Scotland votes to stay in, it won't be in. Which is what I think will happen. Good post. I think the Conservatives/Lib Dems and Labour all over reacted when the polls showed the referendum vote as close and then over committed on further Scottish devolution which a failure to deliver is now the basis behind Salmond's call for another referendum. There really wasn't any need to do this. I always turn to the bookmakers at election times not the pollsters and they never gave a "Yes" to independence vote an earthly. They have a business to run and tend to factor in things which the pollsters can't (e.g. "No" voters were not nearly as mouthy as "Yes" voters and felt intimidated to declare their intentions) and so they tend to get stuff right. I still haven't figured why the Scots no longer vote Tory, is it simply being seen to be somehow pro English? Not that long ago they would vote Tory in greater percentages in Scotland than in England. Hard working, financially savvy, folks that they are, the Highland and Edinburgh financial services seats were nailed on Tory every time. I guess Tory is a spoiled brand there now, is there some place for a centre/right party of a different name? At the moment all options appear to be tax and spend merchants and I refuse to believe that is what all Scots want, its a proud nation right. Talking to my Mrs and mother-in-law - both Scots - of the, let's say, more refined variety, they put it all down to Thatcher. Her Government had a big effect on Scottish industry, and used Scotland to try out more controversial policies. |
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 27, 2015 11:15:50 GMT
Back to Big Eck. He been a colossus in the small pond that is Scottish politics. He has dominated his local opposition taking advantage of Labour's principle talent preferring Westminster to Holyrood (which also applie to the Lib Dems - or rather did!) and the general feebleness of the Tory party in Scotland. In short he had a free reign for a long time up here. In fairness, it should be said, he is also a very high calibre politician. But not without fault. And his dominance plays badly to his biggest weakness. Hubris. This guy loves himself. What he says goes. Only it doesn't. Not all the time. Particularly when he's up against smart opponents - something he ain't used to and his hubris leads him to underestimating opposition arguments. As, for example, Osbourne did on the currency during the referendum. His response on that occassion was feeble and unconvincing. As you say Cameron using the outcome of the Scottish vote to put EVEL at the top of the political vote was astute politics. Particularly after Labour left the vexed West Lothian Question unresolved for years after creating the problem in the first place. I'm not sure though that Cameron was so wise with the terms of the Scottish referendum. He really had no choice. I think he got worried though when the vote looked like it was going to be close. So is this just hot air from Salmond? I doubt it. He's just floating the idea to see what the response is North of the border. Is it a vote winner or not? If they think it is, they'll go for it. If not, beyond a commitment to hold a referendum in the event the Europe vote for the UK goes for a Brexit but Scotland votes to stay in, it won't be in. Which is what I think will happen. Good post. I think the Conservatives/Lib Dems and Labour all over reacted when the polls showed the referendum vote as close and then over committed on further Scottish devolution which a failure to deliver is now the basis behind Salmond's call for another referendum. There really wasn't any need to do this. I always turn to the bookmakers at election times not the pollsters and they never gave a "Yes" to independence vote an earthly. They have a business to run and tend to factor in things which the pollsters can't (e.g. "No" voters were not nearly as mouthy as "Yes" voters and felt intimidated to declare their intentions) and so they tend to get stuff right. I still haven't figured why the Scots no longer vote Tory, is it simply being seen to be somehow pro English? Not that long ago they would vote Tory in greater percentages in Scotland than in England. Hard working, financially savvy, folks that they are, the Highland and Edinburgh financial services seats were nailed on Tory every time. I guess Tory is a spoiled brand there now, is there some place for a centre/right party of a different name? At the moment all options appear to be tax and spend merchants and I refuse to believe that is what all Scots want, its a proud nation right. Scotland, to a significant degree, has become trapped in the politics of protest - even with devolution Westminster is still used as a scapegoat for things not working in Scotland. It has been able to avoid many of the problems that come with the politics of Government. I'd being fully accountable for the national finances. This is fertile ground for left wing politics concerned with spending money but not generating it (beyond simplistic and counterproductive taxes). The only fix for this is self government or more government. The former is what the SNP want, the latter is, of course, what is on the table. It will be interesting to see how the Scottish electorate view the SNP over the next few years. There is a view (and I think it is quite a large one) that says you've got plenty of extra powers, now let's see you use them. Show us what you can do. As opposed to continuously complaining about what you don't have. It remains to be seen. In the meantime expect plenty of mischief making from Eck and his crew. And why not. It won't last forever - they might as well make the most of it. |
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Post by partickpotter on Jul 27, 2015 11:22:39 GMT
Good post. I think the Conservatives/Lib Dems and Labour all over reacted when the polls showed the referendum vote as close and then over committed on further Scottish devolution which a failure to deliver is now the basis behind Salmond's call for another referendum. There really wasn't any need to do this. I always turn to the bookmakers at election times not the pollsters and they never gave a "Yes" to independence vote an earthly. They have a business to run and tend to factor in things which the pollsters can't (e.g. "No" voters were not nearly as mouthy as "Yes" voters and felt intimidated to declare their intentions) and so they tend to get stuff right. I still haven't figured why the Scots no longer vote Tory, is it simply being seen to be somehow pro English? Not that long ago they would vote Tory in greater percentages in Scotland than in England. Hard working, financially savvy, folks that they are, the Highland and Edinburgh financial services seats were nailed on Tory every time. I guess Tory is a spoiled brand there now, is there some place for a centre/right party of a different name? At the moment all options appear to be tax and spend merchants and I refuse to believe that is what all Scots want, its a proud nation right. Talking to my Mrs and mother-in-law - both Scots - of the, let's say, more refined variety, they put it all down to Thatcher. Her Government had a big effect on Scottish industry, and used Scotland to try out more controversial policies. She was also a handy scapegoat for all manner of ills. BTW - don't forget Silicon Valley boomed under Tory rule in the 89s and 90s. Huge investment from the U.S. and Japan. Massive numbers of jobs. Cities in the North of England would have liked comparable investments coming to them. Ok, it's by and large gone now. But for a good many years it was a huge contributor to Scotland's economy. It wasn't of course, unionised. Which didn't warm it to Labour and the Unions, so, as a consequence, it has become Scotland's forgotten industry (IMO). |
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Post by xchpotter on Jul 28, 2015 8:39:54 GMT
As long as I don't have to see her smug,slapped arse face any more than I currently do I don't really care what happens. I thought it would be hard to dislike anyone more than that Alex bloke but my god, she is going some for me.
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