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Post by trickydicky73 on May 6, 2014 19:48:45 GMT
so i guess you were wise enougth to back sunderland v chelsea and palarse v the bindippers? if you read his op he says its a long term project and you will suffer some setbacks on the way. and if you read his write up on all his bets its hard to find a argument against them. at least he has the balls to post his bets BEFORE and not after the event. if we had hindsight peter coates would be queuing up at the foodbank and we would be playing vale!!!!!! good luck with your punts i hope you do beat the bookies Fair enough, that he puts his bets up along with some supporting logic but there is now more than enough evidence that for a 'selective' betting service he simply misses the target way too often. Add the fact that the average price is around 8/11 and staking is erratic, the it's not hard to conclude hat he won't make money at this as long as he has a hole in his arse. I have lost thousands, Sheiky. It's fucking impossible for the average Joe to win in the long run. All these "systems" are cack. There are two types of gamblers: losers and liars.
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Post by Deleted on May 6, 2014 20:01:26 GMT
every gambler thinks he has a system that will come good one day, even prof backers will go to a racecourse and just back the fav in each race.i like to keep it fun cant beat a good day at the races, and i allways consider any winnings as a bonus. i stick up for this guy[no i dont know him] because he is brave enougth to post his selections and reasons for backing before the event as opposed to other people coming on this mb with crap like oh i had a monkey on the grand national winner and more
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Post by Trouserdog on May 6, 2014 22:21:51 GMT
so i guess you were wise enougth to back sunderland v chelsea and palarse v the bindippers? if you read his op he says its a long term project and you will suffer some setbacks on the way. and if you read his write up on all his bets its hard to find a argument against them. at least he has the balls to post his bets BEFORE and not after the event. if we had hindsight peter coates would be queuing up at the foodbank and we would be playing vale!!!!!! good luck with your punts i hope you do beat the bookies Fair enough, that he puts his bets up along with some supporting logic but there is now more than enough evidence that for a 'selective' betting service he simply misses the target way too often. Add the fact that the average price is around 8/11 and staking is erratic, the it's not hard to conclude hat he won't make money at this as long as he has a hole in his arse. Many picks are even shorter than that. It's impossible to make any long-term profit without finding value in your prices- and at 1/2 on you've not got much margin for error. I keep records of all my betting and gave up backing short odds-on stuff quite a while ago- especially on unders/overs markets, which are so easy for a bookmaker to price up and suck any value out of as soon as trends become apparent. I rely on unlocking as many free bet offers as possible to make a profit (most people won't believe this as they can't be arsed to understand the maths behind it) but on the days when I'm not cheating, I've always found that picking stuff at between evs and 6/4, sticking to singles, and aiming for a 50% strike rate is the most likely way to grind yourself into the black.
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Post by 1863 on May 13, 2014 8:43:39 GMT
Trouserdog, given that you know how to bet/lay using betting exchanges on football, have a gander at the offer William Hill does on Channel 4 racing. Basically they refund your bet SNR (stake not returned) if your horse comes second. I was never a big follower of the sport of kings, but this little offer has kept me brassed up for a while now. I know at least with your good self I'm not going to get a retort of "you don't know what you're talking about" which is the usual reply when I give my tuppence worth on this thread :)UTP yooth!!!
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Post by Trouserdog on May 13, 2014 9:08:49 GMT
Trouserdog, given that you know how to bet/lay using betting exchanges on football, have a gander at the offer William Hill does on Channel 4 racing. Basically they refund your bet SNR (stake not returned) if your horse comes second. I was never a big follower of the sport of kings, but this little offer has kept me brassed up for a while now. I know at least with your good self I'm not going to get a retort of "you don't know what you're talking about" which is the usual reply when I give my tuppence worth on this thread :)UTP yooth!!! Cheers- I'll have a look at that. I haven't followed horse racing for years (since my kids came along- no time for the form book, not that I was very successful anyway) but I'll bet on anything if there's an offer on and I think the odds are in my favour. I managed to bag £100 worth of free bets on tennis a couple of months ago at a cost of about £10, just through placing qualifying wagers and then backing against myself with other bookies. Obviously know nothing about the sport but as long as my calculator's working, it's all good! I'm counting on the usual bet365 "£50 in-play" offer for the Champions League final now, just to round the season off.
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Post by 1863 on May 13, 2014 9:27:11 GMT
The usual advice have a look at the CH 4 thread on MSE "matched betting". Maximum stake is £25. Morning price boosts usually help find an arb or a low loss close match on the fav or near fav. The minimum size field needs to be 5 horses or more. It's amazing how one day every FAV you bet on comes second, and then every so often they win every race, leaving you to wonder why you don't just "mug" punt for a living!! Wish uncle Peter would let me play ball, or at least let me do his lovely 4/1 offer on the gee gee's, but he's long since decided that a bonus abusing scum bucket like me aint in his business profile. BTW don't know if you're into what is quaintly termed "Gnoming" but you'll find William Hill "very" partner friendly
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