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Post by puntersadvice on Mar 1, 2014 15:40:17 GMT
PuntersAdvice Betting Log
This betting log will be very selective and usually only one bet will be posted each week.
This will be a medium term project that will last for a minimum of 2 years.
The opening balance will be 1,000.
Stake will be 5% or 10% of the current balance.
Markets:
win-draw-win
over 2.5 goals
both teams to score
team to win & over 2.5 goals
Prices will be taken from 6 bookmakers:
Bet365
Ladbrokes
Stan James
William Hill
BetVictor
Paddy Power
The leagues I will focus on are:
English Premier League
Spanish Primera Division
German Bundesliga
Italian Serie A
French Ligue 1
Dutch Eredivisie
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Irish Premier League
Norwegian Eliteserien
Swedish Allsvenskan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
Japanese J-League
USA Major League Soccer
Champions League
Europa League
On to the opening bet of the log...
English Premier League: Southampton v Liverpool
-Southampton average 2.59 goals per league game (12/27 Over 2.5 Goals).
-Liverpool average 3.89 goals per league game (20/27 Over 2.5 Goals).
-Daniel Sturridge has scored in eight consecutive Premier League appearances.
-Only four teams have kept fewer clean sheets than Liverpool in the top flight this season (7), three of those teams are in the bottom four.
-Southampton have scored in 23 of their 27 league matches this season.
-There have been a total of 49 goals scored in each teams last 6 league matches.
-There have been over 2.5 goals scored in fifteen of Liverpool’s last seventeen games in the Premier League.
-Liverpool have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last ten away matches in the Premier League.
-Defensive midfielder Wanyama is absent for Southampton.
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Stake: 50
Bookmaker: BetVictor
Odds: 1.75
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Post by Mr_DaftBurger on Mar 1, 2014 15:48:30 GMT
I've just shit a log!  |
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Post by Trouserdog on Mar 1, 2014 18:02:12 GMT
Very stats based approach- be interesting to see how this does.
I used a very similar approach for a while on unders/overs and it made a loss.
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Post by puntersadvice on Mar 2, 2014 23:00:03 GMT
I do have a stats based approach but I don't go into all the details in a preview generally, just touch on the main points and let people make up their own mind after that.
I do my own stat work each week in excel and would get 15-20 games generally that are good candidates for overs for example 'on paper'. Its the follow up research that takes the other factors into account that reduce that number down to one or two bets.
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Post by puntersadvice on Mar 3, 2014 13:38:16 GMT
Southampton 0-3 Liverpool
Balance: 1,037
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Post by Trouserdog on Mar 3, 2014 17:20:23 GMT
I'm wondering whether this is Macca100 under a different name- perhaps a few too many "Sell Yer Granny" bets went down? ???
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Post by puntersadvice on Mar 15, 2014 12:28:31 GMT
English Premier League: Everton v Cardiff City
-Everton have scored over 1.5 goals in 8 home games this season.
-Cardiff have conceded over 1.5 goals in 9 away games this season.
-Everton have won 6 from their last 7 home league games.
-Everton are undefeated in 21 of their last 22 home matches in the Premier League.
-Cardiff have won just one away game all season, lost their last 7, and they have failed to score in eight of their last 10 away matches.
-Cardiff have been losing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Premier League.
-Center-back Ben Turner could be doubtful for Cardiff.
Bet: Everton To Score Over 1.5 Goals
Stake: 52
Bookmaker: StanJames
Odds: 1.57
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Post by puntersadvice on Mar 15, 2014 13:26:22 GMT
English League 1: Wolves v Shrewsbury
-Wolves are looking to make it a club record 10 consecutive wins.
-Wolves have won their last 9 games by a minimum 2 goal margin with 7 clean sheets.
-Shrewsbury have 1 win in their last 11 games.
-Shrewsbury have doubts over on-loan Bolton striker Tom Eaves (hamstring), Aaron Wildig (quad) and Luke Summerfield (thigh).
Bet: Wolves -1 Asian Handicap
Stake: 104
Bookmaker: Bet365
Odds: 1.475
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Post by nott1 on Mar 15, 2014 14:11:09 GMT
PuntersAdvice Betting Log
AKA Bookies Pension Fund
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Post by robin1302 on Mar 15, 2014 19:19:10 GMT
English League 1: Wolves v Shrewsbury -Wolves are looking to make it a club record 10 consecutive wins. -Wolves have won their last 9 games by a minimum 2 goal margin with 7 clean sheets. -Shrewsbury have 1 win in their last 11 games. -Shrewsbury have doubts over on-loan Bolton striker Tom Eaves (hamstring), Aaron Wildig (quad) and Luke Summerfield (thigh). Bet: Wolves -1 Asian Handicap Stake: 104 Bookmaker: Bet365 Odds: 1.475 Great tip... |
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2014 19:25:26 GMT
English League 1: Wolves v Shrewsbury -Wolves are looking to make it a club record 10 consecutive wins. -Wolves have won their last 9 games by a minimum 2 goal margin with 7 clean sheets. -Shrewsbury have 1 win in their last 11 games. -Shrewsbury have doubts over on-loan Bolton striker Tom Eaves (hamstring), Aaron Wildig (quad) and Luke Summerfield (thigh). Bet: Wolves -1 Asian Handicap Stake: 104 Bookmaker: Bet365 Odds: 1.475 Hey, you didn't say you were going to focus on league one? |
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Post by ChrisKamarasPerm on Mar 15, 2014 19:28:39 GMT
Sell your granny time rofl
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Post by Deleted on Mar 15, 2014 19:36:14 GMT
Jesus Christ.
Backing odds on shots continuously over a significant period of time will only lead to bankruptcy.
Technically you have a 66% strike rate but have won buttons. You may have even lost money.
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Post by puntersadvice on Mar 16, 2014 12:47:03 GMT
English Premier League: Man Utd v Liverpool
-Liverpool have scored at least 3 goals in their last 4 matches in the Premier League.
-Liverpool have won their last 4 matches in the Premier League.
-Liverpool have been superb in attack, however, and may take a lead into the break having scored 27 more goals in the first half of league matches this season than their hosts.
-Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 league matches, scoring 20 goals and have lost just 4 away league games this season.
-Man Utd have lost or drawn 50% of their league matches.
-Man Utd have to consider their match against Olympiakos who have just won their domestic league and have a 2 goal advantage in the Champions League and more than likely Man Utd will have to win the CL to be in the competition next season.
-Fellani is starting and is far too slow against Liverpools front 6.
Liverpool: Mignolet, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Flanagan, Gerrard, Allen, Henderson, Sterling, Suarez, Sturridge
Man Utd: De Gea, Rafael, Jones, Vidic, Evra, Mata, Fellaini, Carrick, Januzaj, Rooney, van Persie
Bet: Liverpool To Win Or Draw (Double Chance)
Stake: 96
Bookmaker: Bet365
Odds: 1.55
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Post by puntersadvice on Mar 16, 2014 15:51:04 GMT
English Premier League: Tottenham v Arsenal
-We will round off this weeks bets with the last game in the Premier League between two local teams teams who both have a host of injuries however Tottenham don't have many top quality replacements unlike Arsenal.
-Arsenal missing: Diaby, Walcott, Ozil, Ramsey.
-Tottenham missing: Lamela, Chiriches, Capoue, Dawson, Dembele.
-Tottenham are on a bad run having lost on Thursday to Benfica and are 6 points behind Arsenal in the race for a champions league place having played 1 game more.
-Arsenal have won both meetings this season.
-Tottenham have conceded 5 goals in each of their home games against Man City and Liverpool and will again be playing with a slightly unusual formation against one of the most technically proficient teams in the league and should be pinned in their own half for much of the game with a lineup that looks to be trying to play counter attacking football which they simply don't have the pace for against this Arsenal side.
Tottenham: Lloris; Naughton, Kaboul, Vertonghen, Rose; Sandro; Townsend, Bentaleb, Eriksen, Chadli; Adebayor.
Arsenal: Szczesny, Sagna, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs, Arteta, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Podolski, Cazorla, Giroud.
Bet: Arsenal To Win Or Draw (Double Chance)
Stake: 54
Bookmaker: Boylesports
Odds: 1.4
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Post by Maccca100 on Mar 16, 2014 19:05:53 GMT
I'm wondering whether this is Macca100 under a different name- perhaps a few too many "Sell Yer Granny" bets went down? ??? Hahaha made me laugh that . Sorry not been on for a while, a lot of explaining to the family as to my grannies disappearance, |
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Post by puntersadvice on Mar 16, 2014 19:32:42 GMT
Everton 2-1 Cardiff City
Wolves 0-0 Shrewsbury
Man Utd 0-3 Liverpool
Tottenham 0-1 Arsenal
Balance: 1,037
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Post by puntersadvice on Apr 1, 2014 13:02:44 GMT
Champions League: Barcelona v Atletico Madrid
-Have played eachother 4 times since 2013, all under 3.5 goals.
-Last two meetings finished 0-0.
-Atletico have not won at Camp Nou since 2006 and will come to this match to defend and go to the second leg at home with a 0-0 or 1-1 result.
-Barcelona have won 2 of their previous 6 Champions League matches against Spanish opposition.
-Atletico are undefeated in the Champions League.
-Barcelona struggled to break down a tight defensive unit in Espanyol at the weekend, winning 1-0 and will face a similar strategy here.
-Atletico's top scorer Diego Costa picked up a knee injury on Monday and is doubtful for this match.
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Stake: 52
Bookmaker: StanJames
Odds: 1.44
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Post by StokieMatt on Apr 1, 2014 13:45:01 GMT
So from betting over £350 youve gained £37?
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Post by Trouserdog on Apr 1, 2014 17:38:03 GMT
So from betting over £350 youve gained £37? That's actually a decent return. |
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Post by Deleted on Apr 1, 2014 17:43:37 GMT
So from betting over £350 youve gained £37? thats over 10% return if you can find me a bank that would give me that much in a year never mind a couple of weeks i would be very excited |
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Post by puntersadvice on Apr 1, 2014 20:03:52 GMT
Ah, the voice of reason. Thanks lads.
Professional gamblers have a return between 4%-8% generally.
About 98% of gamblers lose money.
10% return in sports betting (if maintained long term) is considered excellent.
The returns are reasonably tight which is why bankroll management is so important and professionals only bet singles and knowledgeable sports fans can't turn that knowledge into profit.
This is how it is done!
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Post by stokerstayinup on Apr 1, 2014 20:46:41 GMT
Ah, the voice of reason. Thanks lads. Professional gamblers have a return between 4%-8% generally. About 98% of gamblers lose money. 10% return in sports betting (if maintained long term) is considered excellent. The returns are reasonably tight which is why bankroll management is so important and professionals only bet singles and knowledgeable sports fans can't turn that knowledge into profit. This is how it is done! Professionals don't only bet singles. |
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Post by puntersadvice on Apr 1, 2014 20:50:47 GMT
Barcelona 1-1 Atletico Madrid
Balance: 1,060
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Post by puntersadvice on Apr 1, 2014 21:03:07 GMT
Professionals don't only bet singles. I am not speaking for every professional gambler but all of the ones I know only bet singles. Others that I have talked to over the years would bet 99% singles and the other 1% would only be doubles or trebles for vastly reduced stakes. Sports betting is their largest source of income so I am not talking about the lads with another full time job who turn a profit over the year of less than £10K. Over the year singles will almost certainly be more profitable for everybody. Of course that is one bit of advice very few takes on board for long as discipline has to be achieved by losing for a few years in the majority of cases. Anyway folks, back to the log. This is a topic that will be difficult to get a consensus on and will derail the thread. If somebody makes a long term profit with accumulators I will be the first to congratulate them but I have found my style which works best for me over the years and it is singles, however each to their own. |
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Post by adi on Apr 1, 2014 21:09:12 GMT
Professionals don't only bet singles. I am not speaking for every professional gambler but all of the ones I know only bet singles. Others that I have talked to over the years would bet 99% singles and the other 1% would only be doubles or trebles for vastly reduced stakes. Sports betting is their largest source of income so I am not talking about the lads with another full time job who turn a profit over the year of less than £10K. Over the year singles will almost certainly be more profitable for everybody. Of course that is one bit of advice very few takes on board for long as discipline has to be achieved by losing for a few years in the majority of cases. Anyway folks, back to the log. This is a topic that will be difficult to get a consensus on and will derail the thread. If somebody makes a long term profit with accumulators I will be the first to congratulate them but I have found my style which works best for me over the years and it is singles, however each to their own. Is it worth the risk though? Seems to take the fun out of it a bit really :/ |
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Post by stokerstayinup on Apr 1, 2014 21:11:12 GMT
Professionals don't only bet singles. I am not speaking for every professional gambler but all of the ones I know only bet singles. Others that I have talked to over the years would bet 99% singles and the other 1% would only be doubles or trebles for vastly reduced stakes. Sports betting is their largest source of income so I am not talking about the lads with another full time job who turn a profit over the year of less than £10K. Over the year singles will almost certainly be more profitable for everybody. Of course that is one bit of advice very few takes on board for long as discipline has to be achieved by losing for a few years in the majority of cases. Anyway folks, back to the log. This is a topic that will be difficult to get a consensus on and will derail the thread. If somebody makes a long term profit with accumulators I will be the first to congratulate them but I have found my style which works best for me over the years and it is singles, however each to their own. My only source of income is from gambling and has been for the past 15 years.Obviously singles bets form the majority of my selections.Nothing wrong with a double or treble though if you think you've got value in both/all prices. |
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Post by stokerstayinup on Apr 1, 2014 21:14:11 GMT
I am not speaking for every professional gambler but all of the ones I know only bet singles. Others that I have talked to over the years would bet 99% singles and the other 1% would only be doubles or trebles for vastly reduced stakes. Sports betting is their largest source of income so I am not talking about the lads with another full time job who turn a profit over the year of less than £10K. Over the year singles will almost certainly be more profitable for everybody. Of course that is one bit of advice very few takes on board for long as discipline has to be achieved by losing for a few years in the majority of cases. Anyway folks, back to the log. This is a topic that will be difficult to get a consensus on and will derail the thread. If somebody makes a long term profit with accumulators I will be the first to congratulate them but I have found my style which works best for me over the years and it is singles, however each to their own. Is it worth the risk though? Seems to take the fun out of it a bit really :/ If you're doing it professionally,the fun is already taken out of it! |
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Post by adi on Apr 1, 2014 21:26:29 GMT
Is it worth the risk though? Seems to take the fun out of it a bit really :/ If you're doing it professionally,the fun is already taken out of it! Very true! |
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Post by puntersadvice on Apr 1, 2014 21:39:31 GMT
You can do it semi-professionally, enjoy the money and have a few fun bets with your mates that would be better craic that the typical £10 or £20 accumulators. You would be surprised how quickly those £10 and £20 accumulators add up to a loss of £1,000. Now imagine you took a more 'serious' approach and instead of losing that £1,000 you just doubled it over a year and spent the £2,000 on a great holiday. Sound fun?  |
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