It's got to be Stoke unless they choke

[StoKeith]

Nice little article on the sportingo website about the top teams' respective run-ins. They think ours looks the easiest and reckon we should go up!

Link

[FullerMagic]

I agree. I had a close look at the run-ins yesterday for the first time, and objectively we must be favourites....on paper.

Gulp..there I've said it

[eriksson74]

Given our propensity to fuck up against the teams in the lower regions of the league I would rather us have the top 7 left to play!!

Please Please Please Stoke, for once lets see the job through to the end and have one big party come 4pm May 4th

[FullerMagic]

tinyurl.com/ypaadk

Martin Spinks seems to think Bristol might have an edge in facing 4 teams potentially with nothing to play for and mentally on the beach. Maybe- but when does it ever work out that way?

Virtually everygame left is uncallable, so we've just got to enjoy the ride and get the brown pants on

With seven games to go, MARTIN SPINKS assesses the automatic promotion hopes of Stoke City and their three Coca-Cola Championship rivals

What goes Stoke, Coventry, Watford, Bristol City, Watford, West Brom, Watford, West Brom, Watford, Stoke, Bristol City, Stoke?

You've got it, the sequence of musical chairs at the top of the Championship as the baton is passed from one club to another in an apparent dogfight to avoid top billing.

It started with Stoke after winning their first two games of the season, but since then it's been a right old buffet... help yourself.

Leadership of the Championship currently lies with Stoke, of course, but you just know it's bound to change hands another two or three times before the music falls silent for good.

Predicting the outcomes of remaining fixtures is a foolish pastime reserved for those with delusions of some kind of higher knowledge than the rest of us.

The fact is, no-one knows.

And with the Championship being so compact this season - how often have we heard the cliche that anyone can beat anyone else? - only a fool would bet generously on as much as a top-four team beating bottom-four opposition, even with home advantage.

However, one potentially critical factor could be the number of 'live' and 'dead' games still to play.

In other words, much better to play mid-table opposition with nothing to play for than a struggling outfit with everything to play for.

So how many 'dead' games do the present top four look like enjoying between now and the end of the season on May 4?

Stoke can hopefully count on Coventry being safe by April 12, Colchester down by April 26 and Leicester safe or relegated by May 4.

One word of warning, though, as Colchester will doubtless want to sign off with a win in what will be their final ever game at Layer Road when Stoke roll into town.

Bristol will hope Cardiff's affections are directed towards the FA Cup when they meet on Saturday, while Norwich, Sheffield United and Preston may have put their feet up, mentally speaking, by the time they run into the Robins.

Watford may have to wait until Blackpool away on the last day of the season for any sniff of a 'dead' game, although the respective fates of Crystal Palace and Scunthorpe could be known by the time they dip their toes into the Hornets' nest on April 19 and 26 respectively.

And finally West Brom, a club whose own approach to league games remains a little unknown as they wrestle with the simultaneous distraction of the FA Cup for at least another fortnight.

Squeezing in at least another two more league games than Stoke might also congest their fixture list to the benefit of their top-four rivals. Of those remaining Championship games for Albion, you have to say that only two (Norwich and QPR) look remotely corpsed, while Southampton may be safe by the time they face the Baggies in their penultimate outing.

In short, when it comes to fixtures, Bristol City appear to have the easier run-in - but you wouldn't bet on it.

If guessing individual results is a mug's game, how about guessing the likely points total to finish in the top two? A look at the figures gives us some guide from the past five seasons in the Championship, but a very rough guide at that.

For the Championship is more bunched than ever this year and, therefore, the top two are unlikely to require anything like previous points totals.

Indeed, even if Stoke were to win their last seven games they would only finish on 88 points.

The chances are we are looking at the total gained by the third-placed clubs in previous seasons as a more accurate guide to what this season's top two might require to pass the chequered flag.

The present form guide is a source of great encouragement in these parts as Stoke were already topping that particular table even before West Brom and Bristol slipped up on home soil last weekend.

That 10-game spell started in a blaze of glory for Stoke as they rattled off five straight wins to claim top spot for the first time since the very start of the season.

Then came that nervous hiccup of one point from nine after defeat at Preston and QPR was followed by a last-gasp draw at home to Burnley.

But the past week has since seen successive clean sheets - for only the second time this season - in winning 1-0 at Norwich and drawing 0-0 at Watford.

That stalemate at Watford on Saturday leaves Stoke third in the mini-table of head-to-heads between the top four after two goalless draws against the Hornets, a draw at West Brom and a win at home to the Baggies, then that 1-0 defeat at Bristol back in late October.

There is a vital chance to avenge that loss at Ashton Gate, of course, when Bristol visit these parts on April 19 for a potential humdinger, while the only other 'six-pointer' still to come between the top four comes a week earlier when Watford visit The Hawthorns.

The one set of people forced to stick their neck out and make predictions at this stage are the bookies, but they appear to be simply following mathematical logic when it comes to forecasting the current title prospects.

And so West Brom are title favourites on the basis, presumably, that they will go top if they win their two games in hand.

Stoke and Watford are almost inseparable, while Bristol City are the one team to be virtually written off by the bookmakers at this stage.

But who'd be brave enough to sink big money on any two runners still left in this crazy four-horse race?

Not this punter.

[vestanpance]

WBA.

9 Games left, 6 of them away (their current record is W7 D2 L8), yet still they are favourites.

Absurd. I'm glad bookies know bugger all otherwise i might have been offended.