Promotion odds 1week before the start of the season

[Gods]

Does this make any sense, where is the value?

Leeds 6/5
Burnley 15/8
Luton 10/3
Middlesbrough 7/2
Sheffield Utd 9/2
Coventry 5
West Brom 5
Norwich 5
Sunderland 7
Stoke 7
Watford 8
Hull 8
Sheffield Wednesday 8
Portsmouth 10
QPR 10
Derby 10
Swansea 12
Blackburn 14
Millwall 12
Preston 14
Bristol City 10
Cardiff City 14
Plymouth Argyle 20
Oxford 25

[willieeetmiout]

Aug 3, 2024 22:57:23 GMT Gods said:

Does this make any sense, where is the value?

Leeds 6/5
Burnley 15/8
Luton 10/3
Middlesbrough 7/2
Sheffield Utd 9/2
Coventry 5
West Brom 5
Norwich 5
Sunderland 7
Stoke 7
Watford 8
Hull 8
Sheffield Wednesday 8
Portsmouth 10
QPR 10
Derby 10
Swansea 12
Blackburn 14
Millwall 12
Preston 14
Bristol City 10
Cardiff City 14
Plymouth Argyle 20
Oxford 25

Laughable market.

At a minimum we should be 700/1

[Deleted]

Coventry and Hull at a push. Very stingy odds those are though.

[Silkystoke]

I started looking from the bottom up….
Never 7/1../ should 25/1 …

[professorplump]

I think the West Brom odds at 5/1 are a bit stingy given their financial problems. There always seems to be a team at the top who you don't expect to be there. This season I think that team might be Sheff Wed.

[nottsover60]

Odds reflect the bets being placed more than being an expert opinion of how a team will fair. Many fans will be backing their team and others will be picking teams on reputation or recent history or manager reputation and obviously the relegated teams will be favorites before a ball has been kicked. As such they are meaningless predictors of how well a team will do.

[GrahamHyde]

I've backed Coventry personally, think they'll do well this season.

[mtrstudent]

7/1 and with 7 championship seasons right? It's our turn. Mathematically guaranteed 😎

[sportsman]

How the hell are we above Oxford? 😁

[thisisouryear]

Sheffield Wednesday ended the season really well and could possibly push for the playoffs this season, dark horses for me. West Brom could be good for relegation this year so the odds on them going down would be more interesting than their odds of going up.

As for us, so far we haven't done enough to give Schumacher much of a chance other than to struggle to stay up. Without a proper Striker we have nobody to aim for, any team would struggle without a Striker. We will be very easy to defend against the way it looks for now

[greyman]

All this proves is that bookies have about as much idea about what will happen this year as anybody else. None whatsoever.

[AlbertTatlock]

With the way we finished last season I think they are about right.

Gouranga.

[napperwainwright]

The Total SP for the Stewards Cup at Goodwood (25 runners) was 136%.

That market is 332%!!!!!

In other words a massive bookies mark up at those odds.

Best left alone.

[thornestein]

Aug 4, 2024 8:02:02 GMT greyman said:

All this proves is that bookies have about as much idea about what will happen this year as anybody else. None whatsoever.

they make very educated guesses , you don’t see many losing money do you

[haway]

Those odds are ridiculous.

7/1 for ourselves is mad considering we were in relegation form from February onwards.

[haway]

Aug 3, 2024 23:01:24 GMT @theonlooker said:

Coventry and Hull at a push. Very stingy odds those are though.

I can’t see Hull being up there this season. Coventry is a good shout though.

[wuzza]

Another vote for Coventry here.
Manager knows what he is doing and squad looks ok
Well worth 10 bob of my hard earned.

[Staffsoatcake]

Coventry for me also.

Portsmouth,got a sneaky feeling they could do well,maybe even the play offs.

[Gods]

What is unusual is an incumbent being favourite in the forof Leeds well ahead of the relegated clubs.

[Pugsley]

Leeds and Burnley for me. Play-offs up for grabs. Start well, get momentum and anything can happen in the Championship.

[Vadiation_Ribe]

Aug 5, 2024 10:06:08 GMT thornestein said:

Aug 4, 2024 8:02:02 GMT greyman said:

All this proves is that bookies have about as much idea about what will happen this year as anybody else. None whatsoever.

they make very educated guesses , you don’t see many losing money do you

The odds are based on loads of data. I think what these odds show is the Championship is so open the bookmakers don't want to take risks on long odds.

Similarly with relegation, Leeds are 'only' 50-1 to be relegated with most bookies, with Stoke mostly at 12 or 14-1. You'd think the favourites for promotion would have much longer odds on relegation.


www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/relegation

[femark]

We were 6/1 this time last season so the odds have slipped slightly as we didn't even make the predicted mid-table obscurity.

[stokefanone]

Aug 3, 2024 22:57:23 GMT Gods said:

Does this make any sense, where is the value?

Leeds 6/5
Burnley 15/8
Luton 10/3
Middlesbrough 7/2
Sheffield Utd 9/2
Coventry 5
West Brom 5
Norwich 5
Sunderland 7
Stoke 7
Watford 8
Hull 8
Sheffield Wednesday 8
Portsmouth 10
QPR 10
Derby 10
Swansea 12
Blackburn 14
Millwall 12
Preston 14
Bristol City 10
Cardiff City 14
Plymouth Argyle 20
Oxford 25

Looking at the clubs in this league, there are only 2 clubs that are bigger than stoke,
Leeds and Sunderland
Eight of a similar size.
Going by that those odds are understandable.

We should be looking at top six surely!

[spitthedog]

Sheffield Wednesday 8/1 ????

What is that based on?

[baystokie]

Aug 4, 2024 8:02:02 GMT greyman said:

All this proves is that bookies have about as much idea about what will happen this year as anybody else. None whatsoever.

Prices re present the amount of money being placed with bookies - has nothing at all to do with prospects. Bookies don't need to have any idea what will or will not happen during the coming season - they just react to amount of betting money they need to cover.

[ohbottom]

Aug 5, 2024 9:46:32 GMT napperwainwright said:

The Total SP for the Stewards Cup at Goodwood (25 runners) was 136%.

That market is 332%!!!!!

In other words a massive bookies mark up at those odds.

Best left alone.

But this is odds to be promoted, not odds to win the championship, so there will be three winners from this market.

[senojbor]

7 to 1 is about right for us. Leeds have sold their best player. It's our year.

[thehartshillbadger]

Aug 5, 2024 14:49:36 GMT spitthedog said:

Sheffield Wednesday 8/1 ????

What is that based on?

It’s what the bookies think the likelihood is of Sheffield Wednesday being promoted I would have thought

[Vadiation_Ribe]

Aug 5, 2024 14:55:41 GMT baystokie said:

Aug 4, 2024 8:02:02 GMT greyman said:

All this proves is that bookies have about as much idea about what will happen this year as anybody else. None whatsoever.

Prices re present the amount of money being placed with bookies - has nothing at all to do with prospects. Bookies don't need to have any idea what will or will not happen during the coming season - they just react to amount of betting money they need to cover.

It has plenty to do with prospects. If what you said was correct, odds for every team would start off the same.

Odds are initially set based on data, such as past performance, signings etc, and being competitive against other bookmakers. Also home location, so England to win any international tournament will probably be lower odds in England (not something I've ever checked though). Only then do odds fluctuate based on betting patterns, along with updates to the data that set the odds originally.

[retrostoke]

Aug 4, 2024 0:15:22 GMT GrahamHyde said:

I've backed Coventry personally, think they'll do well this season.

After Saturday of course. They’ve got a tough start