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Post by clintonbaptiste on Mar 4, 2024 15:19:29 GMT
Just been looking at fixtures and Blackburn probably have the worst run in fixture wise and also QPR's last 4 games are tough. I think we just concentrate on ourselves for now.
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Post by telfordstokie on Mar 4, 2024 17:19:53 GMT
With 11 games left, from Plymouth in 16th down on 40 points to Wednesday in 23rd with 35 there’s eight teams currently in the mix for the final two relegation spots.
We only need to do better than two of the other seven over next 11 games to stay up - and we’re already three points ahead of Wednesday with a better goal difference.
I think we might be in the bottom three for a few more weeks given upcoming fixtures but do think we can and will stay up.
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Post by lordb on Mar 4, 2024 17:21:03 GMT
With 11 games left, from Plymouth in 16th down on 40 points to Wednesday in 23rd with 35 there’s eight teams currently in the mix for the final two relegation spots. We only need to do better than two of the other seven over next 11 games to stay up - and we’re already three points ahead of Wednesday with a better goal difference. I think we might be in the bottom three for a few more weeks given upcoming fixtures but do think we can and will stay up. Would still include Swansea atm
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Post by vidigoals on Mar 11, 2024 9:40:44 GMT
I updated my forecasts with much optimism this morning - I've had us staying up since the start but I think this weekend really cemented it for me.
UPDATED FORECASTS - Again, sticking with my original scores and simply updating the actual score as and when it happens.
15 Swansea City 54 16 Millwall 53 17 Stoke City 52 19 Huddersfield Town 51 19 Birmingham City 51 20 Plymouth Argyle 49 21 Queens Park Rangers 48 22 Blackburn Rovers 44 23 Sheffield Wednesday 42 24 Rotherham United 20
Blackburn slowly starting to look doomed.
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Post by Robo10 on Mar 11, 2024 10:02:46 GMT
If we managed to finish 15th or 16th again, 1) it would be a massive relief, but 2) AGAIN! :-)
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Post by etebojan on Mar 11, 2024 10:11:30 GMT
I updated my forecasts with much optimism this morning - I've had us staying up since the start but I think this weekend really cemented it for me. UPDATED FORECASTS - Again, sticking with my original scores and simply updating the actual score as and when it happens. 15 Swansea City 54 16 Millwall 53 17 Stoke City 52 19 Huddersfield Town 51 19 Birmingham City 51 20 Plymouth Argyle 49 21 Queens Park Rangers 48 22 Blackburn Rovers 44 23 Sheffield Wednesday 42 24 Rotherham United 20 Blackburn slowly starting to look doomed. Flippin eck i've just seen Blackburns Run In, you could be bang on, Middlesborough Ipswich Sunderland Southampton Bristol City Leeds Sheffield Weds Coventry Leicester they might pull out the odd shock result but vs Sheffield their possible only banker, question mark over Sunderland on current form
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Post by somersetpotter on Mar 11, 2024 10:15:28 GMT
Huddersfield also appearing quite high on this list when I've seen a few looking at them as strong relegation candidates.. Guess that's just due to it being based on predictions at an earlier date?
I'd guess: Plymouth (free fall, big falling out with the new boss) Huddersfield (terrible and that 1-4 loss to WBA will have hurt them a lot) Rotherham (fucked)
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Post by apb1 on Mar 11, 2024 10:25:48 GMT
I get Blackburn and Rotherham definites. QPR and Hudd tied on 46 points will be separated on GD, probs Hudd. The problem is it's almost impossible to predict a league like the Championship. How could QPR win at Leicester? Ridiculous. I think we should be safe with 52. I think we'll get that with wins v Bristol C, Plymouth and Huddersfield, and draws v WBA and Norwich. I realise this makes us fortress style at home - in reality we might lose v Norwich, draw v Plymouth, but win at Swansea and draw at Sheff W. I hope we're on the beach before Southampton (A) frankly. EDIT: hoping for favours from Sunderland looks unlikely. They're in total free fall, hadn't realised. thefishy.co.uk/formtable.php?table=2&tab=tab-overall
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Post by y_oh_y_delilah on Mar 11, 2024 10:34:50 GMT
I’m not really bothered about predictions any more.
There isn’t a cats chance in hell we’ll go down.
SJW has made all the difference imo.
Vilify me all you like if things go belly up (which they won’t) at the end of season.
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Post by lordb on Mar 11, 2024 10:59:31 GMT
Way to early to call Still anyone from Swansea downwards
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Post by vidigoals on Mar 11, 2024 11:14:00 GMT
Huddersfield also appearing quite high on this list when I've seen a few looking at them as strong relegation candidates.. Guess that's just due to it being based on predictions at an earlier date? I'd guess: Plymouth (free fall, big falling out with the new boss) Huddersfield (terrible and that 1-4 loss to WBA will have hurt them a lot) Rotherham (fucked) They have quite a decent run-in. I have their only away points coming away to Rotherham (3). Then home wins against Millwall, Swans and Birmingham.
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Post by wakefieldstokie on Mar 11, 2024 12:16:50 GMT
I’m not really bothered about predictions any more. There isn’t a cats chance in hell we’ll go down. SJW has made all the difference imo. Vilify me all you like if things go belly up (which they won’t) at the end of season. I mean there is a good chance we will go down, statistically, that is a distinct possibility. However I admire you SJW positive vibes.
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Post by y_oh_y_delilah on Mar 11, 2024 13:11:05 GMT
I’m not really bothered about predictions any more. There isn’t a cats chance in hell we’ll go down. SJW has made all the difference imo. Vilify me all you like if things go belly up (which they won’t) at the end of season. I mean there is a good chance we will go down, statistically, that is a distinct possibility. However I admire you SJW positive vibes. No not really, most bookies are offering 6/1 or 7/1 against us going down, so statistically there’s a far better chance we’ll stay up.
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Post by FullerMagic on Mar 11, 2024 13:35:53 GMT
Rotherham 100% Sheff Weds 49% QPR 38% Huddersfield 35% Blackburn 29% Stoke 13% B'ham 13% Plymouth 12% Millwall 7% Swansea 3% Watford 2%
According to this model, our relegation chances have come down from 26% to 13% following the weekend's results
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Post by podolipotter on Mar 11, 2024 15:02:52 GMT
Predictions are all well and good ...but.....can we really rely on more OGs and fluke deflections? Given our shocking shots to goals ratio, I would be thankful if we hit 46 points.
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Post by lordb on Mar 11, 2024 15:04:50 GMT
Predictions are all well and good ...but.....can we really rely on more OGs and fluke deflections? Given our shocking shots to goals ratio, I would be thankful if we hit 46 points. 5 points from the remaining games? That's just silly
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Post by mickstupp on Mar 11, 2024 18:39:19 GMT
Predictions are all well and good ...but.....can we really rely on more OGs and fluke deflections? Given our shocking shots to goals ratio, I would be thankful if we hit 46 points. We will almost certainly get relegated with 46 points. We still need another ten.
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Post by lordb on Mar 11, 2024 19:02:26 GMT
Predictions are all well and good ...but.....can we really rely on more OGs and fluke deflections? Given our shocking shots to goals ratio, I would be thankful if we hit 46 points. We will almost certainly get relegated with 46 points. We still need another ten. Possibly However what usually happens after sides at the bottom win a few is they start losing again it could be that 49 points is enough But only could be Does seem that 50 or more this year is the mark
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Post by mickstupp on Mar 11, 2024 19:11:36 GMT
We will almost certainly get relegated with 46 points. We still need another ten. Possibly However what usually happens after sides at the bottom win a few is they start losing again it could be that 49 points is enough But only could be Does seem that 50 or more this year is the mark Yes 50 points plus an extra one to cover our poor goals difference. Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a team currently looking safe in mid table get sucked into it.
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Post by wakefieldstokie on Mar 11, 2024 19:53:16 GMT
I mean there is a good chance we will go down, statistically, that is a distinct possibility. However I admire you SJW positive vibes. No not really, most bookies are offering 6/1 or 7/1 against us going down, so statistically there’s a far better chance we’ll stay up. Ask yourself- can we get relegated? The answer isn’t 100% no. Therefore we can get relegated. Chances are we won’t but factually we can
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Post by Mr_DaftBurger on Mar 13, 2024 11:00:31 GMT
Way to early to call Still anyone from Swansea downwards Watford Fixtures: Birmingham (a), Leeds (h), West Brom (a), Preston (h), Ipswich (a), Southampton (a), Hull (h), Sunderland (h), Middlesbrough (a) 😬
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Post by thebet365 on Mar 13, 2024 11:25:16 GMT
I've probably been a bit harsh on Rotherham Crunch games for us are Boro/Hudders/Plymouth home games 14 Cardiff City 53 15 Birmingham City 50 16 Swansea City 50 17 Queens Park Rangers 49 18 Blackburn Rovers 48 19 Stoke City 48 20 Plymouth Argyle 46 21 Sheffield Wednesday 45 22 Millwall 43 23 Huddersfield Town 42 24 Rotherham United 25 We're currenlty 2 points ahead of my predictions since I posted this, bad news is Millwall are already at the points I'd got them as finishing on
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Post by mickeythemaestro on Mar 13, 2024 11:28:57 GMT
Way to early to call Still anyone from Swansea downwards Watford Fixtures: Birmingham (a), Leeds (h), West Brom (a), Preston (h), Ipswich (a), Southampton (a), Hull (h), Sunderland (h), Middlesbrough (a) 😬 Holy shit that's a terrible run in.. They are on 45 points though already. Could get dicey but should be okay i reckon..
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Post by senojbor on Mar 13, 2024 13:28:29 GMT
There is a chance that we could go on a unbeaten run until the end of the season.
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Post by wakefieldstokie on Mar 13, 2024 13:32:30 GMT
I updated my forecasts with much optimism this morning - I've had us staying up since the start but I think this weekend really cemented it for me. UPDATED FORECASTS - Again, sticking with my original scores and simply updating the actual score as and when it happens. 15 Swansea City 54 16 Millwall 53 17 Stoke City 52 19 Huddersfield Town 51 19 Birmingham City 51 20 Plymouth Argyle 49 21 Queens Park Rangers 48 22 Blackburn Rovers 44 23 Sheffield Wednesday 42 24 Rotherham United 20 Blackburn slowly starting to look doomed. Flippin eck i've just seen Blackburns Run In, you could be bang on, Middlesborough Ipswich Sunderland Southampton Bristol City Leeds Sheffield Weds Coventry Leicester they might pull out the odd shock result but vs Sheffield their possible only banker, question mark over Sunderland on current form Those teams in the playoff spots historically drop points to lower teams, as they get nervy, so I wouldn't read too much into it. Leicester, Ipswich and Leeds will be bloody tough though
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Post by lordb on Mar 13, 2024 14:06:17 GMT
Watford Fixtures: Birmingham (a), Leeds (h), West Brom (a), Preston (h), Ipswich (a), Southampton (a), Hull (h), Sunderland (h), Middlesbrough (a) 😬 Holy shit that's a terrible run in.. They are on 45 points though already. Could get dicey but should be okay i reckon.. Agree, let's factor Watford in for now but should stay up really
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Post by Mr_DaftBurger on Mar 13, 2024 15:02:21 GMT
Holy shit that's a terrible run in.. They are on 45 points though already. Could get dicey but should be okay i reckon.. Agree, let's factor Watford in for now but should stay up really You'd think Preston and Sunderland at home but who knows! 😁
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Post by Bera’s Beano on Mar 13, 2024 16:27:42 GMT
Done mine and although I think I was reasonable and fair in all of my results, including having us lose to Southampton and draw with West Brom, Stoke have ended up with 58 points I'm not nearly as pessimistic as I thought I clearly was, and shows I know fuck all. I have Rotherham of course, then Blackburn and Sheffield Wednesday to drop with them on 45 each. Just looking at Blackburn's run in is terrifying for them. I honestly think they only have 1 game they'd be favourites to win at a push. From bottom to top, obviously predicting games individually isn't the same as the realy thing but mine go as follows: 15 - Stoke - 58 16 - Millwall - 56 17 - QPR - 50 18 - Plymouth - 49 19 - Swansea City - 48 20 - Huddersfield - 47 21 - Birmingham - 46 22 - Sheff Wed - 45 23 - Blackburn - 45 24 - Rotherham - 21 Cardiff for me are really strong and will be nowhere near it anyway.
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Post by Gods on Mar 13, 2024 16:55:05 GMT
It shows talk of 50 points needed to stay up is probably not right.
Not one person who has gone so far has anything like 50 points required for survival.
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Post by lordb on Mar 13, 2024 16:57:04 GMT
Done mine and although I think I was reasonable and fair in all of my results, including having us lose to Southampton and draw with West Brom, Stoke have ended up with 58 points I'm not nearly as pessimistic as I thought I clearly was, and shows I know fuck all. I have Rotherham of course, then Blackburn and Sheffield Wednesday to drop with them on 45 each. Just looking at Blackburn's run in is terrifying for them. I honestly think they only have 1 game they'd be favourites to win at a push. From bottom to top, obviously predicting games individually isn't the same as the realy thing but mine go as follows: 15 - Stoke - 58 16 - Millwall - 56 17 - QPR - 50 18 - Plymouth - 49 19 - Swansea City - 48 20 - Huddersfield - 47 21 - Birmingham - 46 22 - Sheff Wed - 45 23 - Blackburn - 45 24 - Rotherham - 21 Cardiff for me are really strong and will be nowhere near it anyway. Cardiff already on 53 points
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