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Post by theblackdeath on Dec 18, 2022 12:52:06 GMT
Keeping hold of Souttsr this window is key then adding 3 players could propel us into the top 6.
Iversen (leicester) GK Pearson (Bournmouth) CDM Clarke Harris (Peterborough) ST
That's what I'm going for
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Post by tachyon on Dec 20, 2022 17:52:11 GMT
Points needed to finish 6th to 3rd (playoffs) depends on;
1) Current distribution of points already won by each team. 2) Distribution of team quality (however you chose to measure it). 3) Remaining fixtures and venues.
Also a reminder that to finish 6th, all you need to do is have more or the same points/better goal difference than the team who finishes 7th (with a few caveats).
Currently, but subject to change, there's a 9% chance the 6th place team will need to beat just the 66 points won by the 7th placed one.
It's a 17% chance they need to beat 67 points.
It's a 22% chance they need to beat 68 points. Most likely current outcome.
It's a 17% chance they need to beat 69 points.
It's a 16% chance they need to beat 70 points.
It's a 9% chance they need to beat 71 points.
It's a 4.5% chance they need to beat 72 points.
Most likely scenario is you'll need 68 points and a better GD to make the playoffs.
Stoke currently make the playoffs 10% of the time.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 20, 2022 18:02:55 GMT
I do wonder if two years of Covid and FFP have completely fucked this league. Other than a handful of players relegated from the PL there is no quality anywhere. It’s always been shit. Yep...let's not pretend was ever great. Simply isn't.
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Post by lordb on Dec 20, 2022 19:28:44 GMT
Points needed to finish 6th to 3rd (playoffs) depends on; 1) Current distribution of points already won by each team. 2) Distribution of team quality (however you chose to measure it). 3) Remaining fixtures and venues. Also a reminder that to finish 6th, all you need to do is have more or the same points/better goal difference than the team who finishes 7th (with a few caveats). Currently, but subject to change, there's a 9% chance the 6th place team will need to beat just the 66 points won by the 7th placed one. It's a 17% chance they need to beat 67 points. It's a 22% chance they need to beat 68 points. Most likely current outcome. It's a 17% chance they need to beat 69 points. It's a 16% chance they need to beat 70 points. It's a 9% chance they need to beat 71 points. It's a 4.5% chance they need to beat 72 points. Most likely scenario is you'll need 68 points and a better GD to make the playoffs. Stoke currently make the playoffs 10% of the time. My gut feeling was 65/66 points this year What about staying up? I'm thinking 50 someone will go down with 50 points
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Post by dirtclod on Dec 21, 2022 5:03:34 GMT
I try not to look at it too much. It'll go up, it'll go down, then do the Hokey Pokey and turn itself around
And that's just in a month.
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Post by tachyon on Dec 21, 2022 8:52:56 GMT
What about staying up? I'm thinking 50 someone will go down with 50 points Currently 5% chance that Stoke go down. Their median final position is 14th with 61 points.
Most likely points won by the 22nd team is 50 (18% of simulations).
Range for the final relegated team is a low of 41 points and a high of 57.
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Post by skip on Dec 21, 2022 9:12:06 GMT
Points needed to finish 6th to 3rd (playoffs) depends on; 1) Current distribution of points already won by each team. 2) Distribution of team quality (however you chose to measure it). 3) Remaining fixtures and venues. Also a reminder that to finish 6th, all you need to do is have more or the same points/better goal difference than the team who finishes 7th (with a few caveats). Currently, but subject to change, there's a 9% chance the 6th place team will need to beat just the 66 points won by the 7th placed one. It's a 17% chance they need to beat 67 points. It's a 22% chance they need to beat 68 points. Most likely current outcome. It's a 17% chance they need to beat 69 points. It's a 16% chance they need to beat 70 points. It's a 9% chance they need to beat 71 points. It's a 4.5% chance they need to beat 72 points. Most likely scenario is you'll need 68 points and a better GD to make the playoffs. Stoke currently make the playoffs 10% of the time. Love your posts Tachyon.
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Post by Gods on Dec 21, 2022 9:37:34 GMT
What about staying up? I'm thinking 50 someone will go down with 50 points Currently 5% chance that Stoke go down. Their median final position is 14th with 61 points.
Most likely points won by the 22nd team is 50 (18% of simulations).
Range for the final relegated team is a low of 41 points and a high of 57.
Thanks tachyon. So if I read all this right we have a 5% (1 in 20) chance of going down and a 10% (1 in 10) chance of making the playoffs which equates to a 2.5% (1 in 40) chance of going up. Basically in all probability we are staying right where we are.
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Post by tachyon on Dec 21, 2022 10:13:25 GMT
Currently 5% chance that Stoke go down. Their median final position is 14th with 61 points.
Most likely points won by the 22nd team is 50 (18% of simulations).
Range for the final relegated team is a low of 41 points and a high of 57.
Thanks tachyon. So if I read all this right we have a 5% (1 in 20) chance of going down and a 10% (1 in 10) chance of making the playoffs which equates to a 2.5% (1 in 40) chance of going up. Basically in all probability we are staying right where we are. Yes that's a fair assessment. Around two in every 1000 sims we come second, but that doesn't really move the promotion dial once you round up the numbers :-)
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Post by Championship Potter on Dec 21, 2022 10:15:51 GMT
Currently 5% chance that Stoke go down. Their median final position is 14th with 61 points.
Most likely points won by the 22nd team is 50 (18% of simulations).
Range for the final relegated team is a low of 41 points and a high of 57.
Thanks tachyon. So if I read all this right we have a 5% (1 in 20) chance of going down and a 10% (1 in 10) chance of making the playoffs which equates to a 2.5% (1 in 40) chance of going up. Basically in all probability we are staying right where we are. That’s very true but the odds could swing quickly with our best centre back back, a new goalkeeper on the way and a couple of our strikers now finding form. We’re at those odds without any of the above.
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Post by Gods on Dec 21, 2022 10:42:45 GMT
Thanks tachyon. So if I read all this right we have a 5% (1 in 20) chance of going down and a 10% (1 in 10) chance of making the playoffs which equates to a 2.5% (1 in 40) chance of going up. Basically in all probability we are staying right where we are. Yes that's a fair assessment. Around two in every 1000 sims we come second, but that doesn't really move the promotion dial once you round up the numbers :-) Oh yes of course, I ignored the (small) possibility that automatic promotion is still possible. And of course my assertion that if we were to make the play-offs then we have a 25% chance of promotion from there is an estimate. It may in practice be that play-offs in 6th spot amount to a 15% chance of promotion and play-offs in 3rd spot amount to a 40% chance of promotion, or something like that.
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Post by middleoftheboothen on Dec 21, 2022 12:41:21 GMT
Yes that's a fair assessment. Around two in every 1000 sims we come second, but that doesn't really move the promotion dial once you round up the numbers :-) Oh yes of course, I ignored the (small) possibility that automatic promotion is still possible. And of course my assertion that if we were to make the play-offs then we have a 25% chance of promotion from there is an estimate. It may in practice be that play-offs in 6th spot amount to a 15% chance of promotion and play-offs in 3rd spot amount to a 40% chance of promotion, or something like that. Alot of the time you have seen the team which snuck into the playoffs in sixth place go up and the team in third who have had a far better season stay down though. Don't know if it's down to momentum of the sixth placed team or the fact that the third placed team are bitter they didn't go up automatic but it does happen.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2022 13:00:18 GMT
Oh yes of course, I ignored the (small) possibility that automatic promotion is still possible. And of course my assertion that if we were to make the play-offs then we have a 25% chance of promotion from there is an estimate. It may in practice be that play-offs in 6th spot amount to a 15% chance of promotion and play-offs in 3rd spot amount to a 40% chance of promotion, or something like that. Alot of the time you have seen the team which snuck into the playoffs in sixth place go up and the team in third who have had a far better season stay down though. Don't know if it's down to momentum of the sixth placed team or the fact that the third placed team are bitter they didn't go up automatic but it does happen. Yep usually the in form team. Leicester did it the year we played them. Martin ON went there, a couple of good signings and they got in in as Millwall lost their last game.
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Post by middleoftheboothen on Dec 21, 2022 15:05:51 GMT
Alot of the time you have seen the team which snuck into the playoffs in sixth place go up and the team in third who have had a far better season stay down though. Don't know if it's down to momentum of the sixth placed team or the fact that the third placed team are bitter they didn't go up automatic but it does happen. Yep usually the in form team. Leicester did it the year we played them. Martin ON went there, a couple of good signings and they got in in as Millwall lost their last game. Yeah the bastards broke my heart as a kid, we should have beat them in the away game first leg but were crap in the home game.
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Post by dirtclod on Dec 21, 2022 15:30:29 GMT
You guys STILL looking at it?
You're gonna throw up or get the runs. Don't say I didn't warn you.
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Post by phileetin on Dec 21, 2022 16:05:29 GMT
didn't know you could do all that on an abacus
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Post by nonameface on Dec 21, 2022 19:46:05 GMT
Yep usually the in form team. Leicester did it the year we played them. Martin ON went there, a couple of good signings and they got in in as Millwall lost their last game. Yeah the bastards broke my heart as a kid, we should have beat them in the away game first leg but were crap in the home game. We annihilated them away, i was convinced wed slap a few past them!
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Post by mrteddysalad on Dec 21, 2022 19:50:45 GMT
I’ve never understood why our attack has looked exactly the same through 4 managers and 100 different players.
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Post by middleoftheboothen on Dec 21, 2022 21:20:03 GMT
Yeah the bastards broke my heart as a kid, we should have beat them in the away game first leg but were crap in the home game. We annihilated them away, i was convinced wed slap a few past them! So was I mate was gutted as a kid after that. Didn't Potter have one cleared off the line in the away game?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2022 21:36:15 GMT
We annihilated them away, i was convinced wed slap a few past them! So was I mate was gutted as a kid after that. Didn't Potter have one cleared off the line in the away game? He put a header straight at the keeper. We had two great pen shouts also Was written after that we were going to lose after dominating . Moxey handing out hospitality booking forms for Wembley before the second leg in the bar was a sign
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Post by Vadiation_Ribe on Dec 21, 2022 21:55:08 GMT
It's the same as any other Championship season, and it's still one of the top 10 leagues in the world.
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Post by middleoftheboothen on Dec 21, 2022 22:17:41 GMT
So was I mate was gutted as a kid after that. Didn't Potter have one cleared off the line in the away game? He put a header straight at the keeper. We had two great pen shouts also Was written after that we were going to lose after dominating . Moxey handing out hospitality booking forms for Wembley before the second leg in the bar was a sign Yeah we did blow it didn't we. The least said about moxey the better really.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 21, 2022 22:32:34 GMT
He put a header straight at the keeper. We had two great pen shouts also Was written after that we were going to lose after dominating . Moxey handing out hospitality booking forms for Wembley before the second leg in the bar was a sign Yeah we did blow it didn't we. The least said about moxey the better really. We were never in the second game. Just punted high balls to their giant centre back and didn't change it.
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