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Post by prestwichpotter on May 25, 2022 10:09:58 GMT
A decent summary of events in my opinion.....
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Post by partickpotter on May 25, 2022 10:43:52 GMT
A decent summary of events in my opinion..... I reckon Putin is reaching a point when he’ll be happy to suspend offensive military operations. That point is when he’s gained enough defensible territory to be able to claim a “victory”. At that point the military nature of the conflict changes - Russia will find it much easier to defend a (relatively) small amount of territory, Ukraine, even with NATO equipment support, will find it very hard to dislodge the Russians. So what happens… I suspect something similar to the Israel occupation of territories on the Golan Heights and the West Bank in that they are not recognised by the UN but “owner’s keepers” applies. Not too dissimilar an outcome to Putin’s other recent actions in other former USSR republics. The difference this time is Western sanctions, particularly on high tech, will cause huge issues to Putin’s attempts to restore and upgrade his army. Also, the Russian economy will suffer as the country is effectively ostracised in terms of trade with the West. The worry is Putin sees his tactic of eating away at his neighbours works meaning he (or a successor) will be back for more of Ukraine at a suitable point in the future.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 25, 2022 11:52:45 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on May 25, 2022 14:39:03 GMT
I reckon Putin is reaching a point when he’ll be happy to suspend offensive military operations. That point is when he’s gained enough defensible territory to be able to claim a “victory”. At that point the military nature of the conflict changes - Russia will find it much easier to defend a (relatively) small amount of territory, Ukraine, even with NATO equipment support, will find it very hard to dislodge the Russians. So what happens… I suspect something similar to the Israel occupation of territories on the Golan Heights and the West Bank in that they are not recognised by the UN but “owner’s keepers” applies. Not too dissimilar an outcome to Putin’s other recent actions in other former USSR republics. The difference this time is Western sanctions, particularly on high tech, will cause huge issues to Putin’s attempts to restore and upgrade his army. Also, the Russian economy will suffer as the country is effectively ostracised in terms of trade with the West. The worry is Putin sees his tactic of eating away at his neighbours works meaning he (or a successor) will be back for more of Ukraine at a suitable point in the future. Way more people live in occupied Ukraine than the Golan Heights so I'd hope for Afghanistan x 100. IMO Russia might not even be able to get the rest of Donbas, either way we have to get anti-air and anti-artillery to them asap.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 25, 2022 14:57:32 GMT
Whatever we are being fed at present, the picture for Ukraine is not good. Whether it is the slow drip of intelligence reports, or perhaps the lack of them, but I get the impression that despite their efforts, the tide is beginning to turn against Ukraine. They seem to be very much on the back foot, and being pressured on all fronts. In the histories I read it seems countries send "waves" of people to war. 1. The standing army/militias 2. Recent veterans 3. Young, healthy unexperienced men whose jobs can be done by others (waiters, not rocket scientists) 4. Older, less healthy men (and sometimes women) 5. Everything you've got Donbas looks like basically (1) vs (1), plus Ukrainian reinforcements and Russia forcing occupied territories to send in everything. Russia had a big advantage if you just compared the armies. We don't know Ukrainian losses or how many it mobilised in Feb/March, but the mobilisation should be big and Russia will have to use soldiers to occupy as well. Maybe by the summer, Russia's big quality/quantity advantage in soldiers could be over. Russia should have big advantage in heavy equipment for a while but the quality gap has shrunk since Russia is shifting to older crappier stuff.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 25, 2022 15:10:43 GMT
I think the question to ponder is "will the US run out of Javelins before Russia run out of tanks?" Over a third of their stock has been sent to Ukraine and production is nigh on impossible to be ramped up quickly enough. Also whether Russia's 10,000 tanks in storage are operational or unable to function, if they're not they have a problem unless they can persuade China or another ally to assist. If they are then I think the answer to the above question is "yes they will" Artillery is doing more damage than Javelins. It's been a war of artillery. I think javelins must have changed the war though? The Russians tried rushin' and couldn't break through because the infantry fucks them up with missiles. So they slowed it down into an artillery war. And people say there aren't enough Javelins, but there are also Stugna-Ps and our own NLAWs among the pile of anti-tank weapons Ukraine has. They must have enough to keep the Russians at arms' length and keep it as an artillery war as you said. Also, if the Ukrainians can sneak NLAWs etc into the occupied territories then that's fantastic news. Even if they can only take out a handful of Russian vehicles a day it's worth it.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 25, 2022 15:16:08 GMT
Just like the "sinking" of the Makarov and the alleged Ukrainian bridgehead between Kharkiv and Izyum I'm still skeptical of this. How do we know it's not old footage? Or tanks being moved for some other reason? Some decent sources think it's real so maybe. If true but they're just used for training or going to Putin's salad tossers in DNR/LNR then that might just be sensible by the Russians. But if they're in Russian hands on the frontline then it really shows the Russian struggles. Apparently they use different ammo to all their other tanks. Russian logistics could struggle more, but on the other hand this could use up their 115 mm stockpile and let their other tanks keep shooting for longer.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 25, 2022 15:44:41 GMT
Artillery is doing more damage than Javelins. It's been a war of artillery. I think javelins must have changed the war though? The Russians tried rushin' and couldn't break through because the infantry fucks them up with missiles. So they slowed it down into an artillery war. And people say there aren't enough Javelins, but there are also Stugna-Ps and our own NLAWs among the pile of anti-tank weapons Ukraine has. They must have enough to keep the Russians at arms' length and keep it as an artillery war as you said. Also, if the Ukrainians can sneak NLAWs etc into the occupied territories then that's fantastic news. Even if they can only take out a handful of Russian vehicles a day it's worth it. The Ukrainian armed forces have said themselves that its artillery that's been the key. The missile have helped but the artillery does the most damage. I can't find the article from their military but it was a thing!
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 25, 2022 15:45:39 GMT
Just like the "sinking" of the Makarov and the alleged Ukrainian bridgehead between Kharkiv and Izyum I'm still skeptical of this. How do we know it's not old footage? Or tanks being moved for some other reason? Some decent sources think it's real so maybe. If true but they're just used for training or going to Putin's salad tossers in DNR/LNR then that might just be sensible by the Russians. But if they're in Russian hands on the frontline then it really shows the Russian struggles. Apparently they use different ammo to all their other tanks. Russian logistics could struggle more, but on the other hand this could use up their 115 mm stockpile and let their other tanks keep shooting for longer. Well they've lost 700 confirmed, so that's 700-1000 in reality. They'll need them soon.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 25, 2022 16:09:27 GMT
Just like the "sinking" of the Makarov and the alleged Ukrainian bridgehead between Kharkiv and Izyum I'm still skeptical of this. How do we know it's not old footage? Or tanks being moved for some other reason? Some decent sources think it's real so maybe. If true but they're just used for training or going to Putin's salad tossers in DNR/LNR then that might just be sensible by the Russians. But if they're in Russian hands on the frontline then it really shows the Russian struggles. Apparently they use different ammo to all their other tanks. Russian logistics could struggle more, but on the other hand this could use up their 115 mm stockpile and let their other tanks keep shooting for longer. Well they've lost 700 confirmed, so that's 700-1000 in reality. They'll need them soon. Holy crap. I believe it now, pretty reliable source says they're located to Melitopol. Source. Sending tanks you stopped making in 1975 is *totally* what you'd do if you have loads of great tech sitting around.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 25, 2022 16:11:25 GMT
I think javelins must have changed the war though? The Russians tried rushin' and couldn't break through because the infantry fucks them up with missiles. So they slowed it down into an artillery war. And people say there aren't enough Javelins, but there are also Stugna-Ps and our own NLAWs among the pile of anti-tank weapons Ukraine has. They must have enough to keep the Russians at arms' length and keep it as an artillery war as you said. Also, if the Ukrainians can sneak NLAWs etc into the occupied territories then that's fantastic news. Even if they can only take out a handful of Russian vehicles a day it's worth it. The Ukrainian armed forces have said themselves that its artillery that's been the key. The missile have helped but the artillery does the most damage. I can't find the article from their military but it was a thing! Oh I saw the same thing and totally believe it. I just mean that the missiles have turned it into an artillery war. Without them the Russians would have been able to punch their tanks straight through Ukraine's defences all over the place and it would look very different.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 25, 2022 16:15:18 GMT
Well they've lost 700 confirmed, so that's 700-1000 in reality. They'll need them soon. Holy crap. I believe it now, pretty reliable source says they're located to Melitopol. Source. Sending tanks you stopped making in 1975 is *totally* what you'd do if you have loads of great tech sitting around. Yeah I was just about to post that re their deployment. It’s not a great look is it. Even in terms of them being used to hold captured areas. It wreaks of desperation.
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Post by questionable on May 25, 2022 16:31:11 GMT
From the reports I’ve read over the last week or so there’s a shit load of new equipment en route, Denmark are sending some serious land to sea missiles which have an extensive range, hopefully more Russian sailors at the bottom of the sea soon.
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Post by mrcoke on May 26, 2022 9:51:31 GMT
You really are an idiot, like many of you on here that think by keep giving Ukraine more and more weapons they can beat Russia, they can't it just prolongs the war and kills more and more Ukrainians. Afghanistan beat Soviets, they don't need to 'win', they just need to hang on in there Eventually Russia will go home I agree. It was similar with the mighty USA in Vietnam. The South had USA troops and bombers support but still lost to the North. If the West keeps supporting Ukraine it will wear Russia down.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 26, 2022 17:10:36 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on May 27, 2022 0:11:15 GMT
Biden admin is considering HIMARS multiple rocket launchers. Goaaaaaarn lad.
The Ukrainians are talking like a few hundred of those would really turn things around. Apparently they can shoot 100+ miles and flatten an area.
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Post by adri2008 on May 27, 2022 18:10:17 GMT
Sounds to me that the Russians are definitely making progress now in the East of the country after a disastrous (for them) campaign in the North. There's a change in tone from various generals and it seems inevitable they'll be ground down and cut off.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 27, 2022 19:02:01 GMT
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Post by terryconroysmagic on May 27, 2022 19:17:25 GMT
Russia inching forward while expending human life and machinery with abandon but it looking increasingly likely they’ll take the East
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Post by mtrstudent on May 27, 2022 19:20:38 GMT
Sounds to me that the Russians are definitely making progress now in the East of the country after a disastrous (for them) campaign in the North. There's a change in tone from various generals and it seems inevitable they'll be ground down and cut off. Yeah it's really bad in Luhansk right now. Context matters though. Ukraine holds Sievierodonetsk, Lysychansk, Kramatorsk and Slovyansk as towns of 100k+ in Donbas right now. Plus several important regional towns like Bakhmut (40k or so). The Russian attacks in April looked like they were trying to cut off all of it, but videos showed hundreds of their vehicles getting blown to shit and now they've stopped. The current news is all about Sievierodonetsk (seems certain to fall) and Lysychansk (looks very bad). After that the Russians would have to get through or round Bakhmut and then Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. So they're way off what it looked like they were trying to do. And every week is closer to Ukraine getting mobilised troops ready.
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Post by dirtclod on May 27, 2022 19:24:16 GMT
Hang on Ukraine! I can't even begin to understand what it's like over there, but their resistance is surely heroic.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 27, 2022 19:34:50 GMT
Russia has to make the most of things right now, they've (finally) learned lessons for the initial attack, and hitting the East as hard as they can whilst the Ukrainian Army cannot effectively reinforce their troops. At the same time, new equipment is being delivered to Ukraine and it takes time for the Ukrainian troops to learn how to use it, so the Ukrainian Army is doing an heroic job of keeping the Russian advance at a slow pace.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 27, 2022 19:53:39 GMT
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 28, 2022 10:48:27 GMT
This imo is interesting re the eastern flank.
Shows the Russian advance. But also how much effort and time it has taken to take not that much.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on May 28, 2022 10:50:55 GMT
This imo is interesting re the eastern flank. Shows the Russian advance. But also how much effort and time it has taken to take not that much. Yes but their willingness to continue at such cost is what is concerning…
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 28, 2022 10:55:02 GMT
This imo is interesting re the eastern flank. Shows the Russian advance. But also how much effort and time it has taken to take not that much. Yes but their willingness to continue at such cost is what is concerning… Isn’t it just the same stupidity we’ve seen so far? I mean they’ve finally learnt they can’t do the big stuff. But even this smaller adventure has taken a month, has cost them lots of manpower and tank power and more than likely won’t change anything in the grand scheme of things.
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Post by partickpotter on May 28, 2022 11:01:47 GMT
Yes but their willingness to continue at such cost is what is concerning… Isn’t it just the same stupidity we’ve seen so far? I mean they’ve finally learnt they can’t do the big stuff. But even this smaller adventure has taken a month, has cost them lots of manpower and tank power and more than likely won’t change anything in the grand scheme of things. Do you think rational thoughts play much of a role in Putin’s world?
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 28, 2022 11:02:19 GMT
Yes but their willingness to continue at such cost is what is concerning… Isn’t it just the same stupidity we’ve seen so far? I mean they’ve finally learnt they can’t do the big stuff. But even this smaller adventure has taken a month, has cost them lots of manpower and tank power and more than likely won’t change anything in the grand scheme of things. Once they've taken these areas, it will be much easier to defend them from Ukraine counter-attacks. Putin want territory and he's got a decent chance to hang on to it. Ukraine was able to push Russia back during the first wave because the Russians were incapable of holding on to such a large area. Keeping hold of the Eastern Dombas is much more achievable and could in his mind, justify the huge loss of life.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 28, 2022 11:13:18 GMT
Isn’t it just the same stupidity we’ve seen so far? I mean they’ve finally learnt they can’t do the big stuff. But even this smaller adventure has taken a month, has cost them lots of manpower and tank power and more than likely won’t change anything in the grand scheme of things. Do you think rational thoughts play much of a role in Putin’s world? Not in the slightest.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 28, 2022 11:15:22 GMT
Isn’t it just the same stupidity we’ve seen so far? I mean they’ve finally learnt they can’t do the big stuff. But even this smaller adventure has taken a month, has cost them lots of manpower and tank power and more than likely won’t change anything in the grand scheme of things. Once they've taken these areas, it will be much easier to defend them from Ukraine counter-attacks. Putin want territory and he's got a decent chance to hang on to it. Ukraine was able to push Russia back during the first wave because the Russians were incapable of holding on to such a large area. Keeping hold of the Eastern Dombas is much more achievable and could in his mind, justify the huge loss of life. I don’t think he’ll stop here. And I don’t think they’ve got the strength to last past the autumn. That’s why we have to stick with it.
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