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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 20, 2022 18:30:11 GMT
Latest Update from John R Bruning.
Ukraine Update:
Russian artillery, relentlessly pounding Ukrainian positions in the Sievierdonetsk Pocket, is wearing the defenders down. These bombardments have been followed by piecemeal attacks that usually fail to gain much, if any ground. Earlier this week, there were sixteen apparently uncoordinated attacks around the Pocket that the Ukrainians stopped.
However, in the last 48 hours, it appears the Russians have caused a portion of the Ukrainian lines at Popasna to collapse. A tactical breakthrough with strategic implications is being reported, and the Russians are now sending reinforcements into the area.
The high ground at Popasna serves as a strategic jump-off point to the more flat terrain to the north, behind the Ukrainians defending Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. They've taken that area and have pushed northwest, west and southwest out of it to force a wider gap in the Ukrainian lines, while at the same time moving to cut off the Ukrainian main supply route into Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk. This is the most strategically vulnerable I've seen the Ukrainians since the end of February.
There are reports that the Ukrainians are marshalling a counter-attack. This would make sense, and it needs to happen soon before the Russians can exploit this success. ------------------ In front of Kharkiv, the Russians launched a local attack that recaptured the border town of Ternova. They've been bombarding villages and troop positions along the border further north by Sumy, using guns deep inside Russian territory. ------------- Mariupol: Some reports are stating up to 1,700 Ukrainian troops were captured when the defenders of the steel works surrendered. There are some hold outs, and irregular forces have been attacking Russian troops, targeting officers and trains around the ruined city.
The Russians have announced plans to raze the steel works and turn Mariupol into a resort retreat. -------------
Aid: The 40 billion aid package passed the US Senate. It includes 20 billion in humanitarian aid, and 20 billion in military assistance. Among the new weapon systems committed in this bill are Patriot anti-aircraft missile batteries, (multiple launch rocket system) MLRS artillery platforms. The hundred million in aid just pledged includes more counter battery radars and 18 more 155mm artillery pieces with their towing vehicles and ammunition. So far, the US has given 156,000 155 artillery shells to Ukraine. Additionally, there are reports of TOW wire-guided anti-tank missiles being sent to Ukraine now as well. -------------
Latest reports suggest the Russians have 106 battalion tactical groups in Ukraine, with roughly 20-25 more around Belgorod, the crucial Russian border city northeast of Kharkiv that is serving as a main supply hub for the north side of the Sievierdonetsk Pocket. If the destruction of 50-55 BTGs is accurate, as has been reported, that would put all but about a dozen of their 180-190 BTGs either committed or in positions around Belgorod. This means the Russian army is almost totally committed to Ukraine with minimal strategic reserves. -------------------------------
Lastly, increasing reports are coming out of Russia that it is quietly preparing to mobilize and draft military aged men. Men as old as their mid-40s are getting letters urging them to come join the military, but recently others have received notice that if ordered to mobilize, they must appear at a particular place within about a half day.
There are reports that mobilization centers have been hit with Molotov cocktail attacks throughout the Russian Federation in the past few days. ------ Overall, the Ukrainians haven't wrested the strategic initiative away from the Russians yet. It looked like that might happen with the counter-offensive at Kharkiv and the destruction of the bridgeheads over the S. Donets on the north side of the Pocket. However, the Russians redoubled their pressure on the Pocket to the south, east, and northeast, and that has led to the situation at Popasna.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 20, 2022 21:10:38 GMT
Overall, the Ukrainians haven't wrested the strategic initiative away from the Russians yet. It looked like that might happen with the counter-offensive at Kharkiv and the destruction of the bridgeheads over the S. Donets on the north side of the Pocket. However, the Russians redoubled their pressure on the Pocket to the south, east, and northeast, and that has led to the situation at Popasna. I think the Ukrainians getting the "strategic initiative" by now was a long shot. Russia just had too many soldiers, tanks, guns and planes. But the pendulum is starting to swing.
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Post by partickpotter on May 21, 2022 8:02:54 GMT
Overall, the Ukrainians haven't wrested the strategic initiative away from the Russians yet. It looked like that might happen with the counter-offensive at Kharkiv and the destruction of the bridgeheads over the S. Donets on the north side of the Pocket. However, the Russians redoubled their pressure on the Pocket to the south, east, and northeast, and that has led to the situation at Popasna. I think the Ukrainians getting the "strategic initiative" by now was a long shot. Russia just had too many soldiers, tanks, guns and planes. But the pendulum is starting to swing. Swing to Russia do you mean? I suspect you are right. The longer this goes on the more likely Russia will succeed in its more limited military objectives. Which begs the question… what next when Russia has gained control of the eastern regions it is now focussing on. I suspect Russia will pause and try to re equip its forces. The question is how long is that pause. Will it constitute a respite in the current conflict, or will it mark the end in which case Russia’s next action, because there will be one, will come in 5 years or so. The bear is happy to hibernate between action.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 21, 2022 8:10:48 GMT
I think the Ukrainians getting the "strategic initiative" by now was a long shot. Russia just had too many soldiers, tanks, guns and planes. But the pendulum is starting to swing. Swing to Russia do you mean? I suspect you are right. The longer this goes on the more likely Russia will succeed in its more limited military objectives. Which begs the question… what next when Russia has gained control of the eastern regions it is now focussing on. I suspect Russia will pause and try to re equip its forces. The question is how long is that pause. Will it constitute a respite in the current conflict, or will it mark the end in which case Russia’s next action, because there will be one, will come in 5 years or so. The bear is happy to hibernate between action. Ukraine and the West cannot afford to let Russia keep the south. If Russia is allowed to dig in, then it will only be a matter of time before they regroup and push on to Odessa and therefore cut off Ukraine's ability to to ship its grain, sunflower oil and raw materials, effectively crippling the county and giving Russia a food equivalent of their gas and oil pipelines along with the influence it would provide.
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Post by partickpotter on May 21, 2022 8:26:17 GMT
Swing to Russia do you mean? I suspect you are right. The longer this goes on the more likely Russia will succeed in its more limited military objectives. Which begs the question… what next when Russia has gained control of the eastern regions it is now focussing on. I suspect Russia will pause and try to re equip its forces. The question is how long is that pause. Will it constitute a respite in the current conflict, or will it mark the end in which case Russia’s next action, because there will be one, will come in 5 years or so. The bear is happy to hibernate between action. Ukraine and the West cannot afford to let Russia keep the south. If Russia is allowed to dig in, then it will only be a matter of time before they regroup and push on to Odessa and therefore cut off Ukraine's ability to to ship its grain, sunflower oil and raw materials, effectively crippling the county and giving Russia a food equivalent of their gas and oil pipelines along with the influence it would provide. The problem is, in an engagement of limited scope Russia can use its vast military strength in numbers to overwhelm Ukraine regardless of what equipment they receive. It becomes a question, in that context, of manpower; Russia can afford (and importantly is unconcerned) to lose 10 people (and more) to every Ukrainian. It’s scary because Russia won’t end its ambitions when it’s immediate military objectives are met. It’s only a question of when Putin decides is the right moment to strike again. In the long run, Russia is fucked. It’s a question of how much damage they inflict in the short and medium term on Ukraine and others.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 21, 2022 8:48:45 GMT
Ukraine and the West cannot afford to let Russia keep the south. If Russia is allowed to dig in, then it will only be a matter of time before they regroup and push on to Odessa and therefore cut off Ukraine's ability to to ship its grain, sunflower oil and raw materials, effectively crippling the county and giving Russia a food equivalent of their gas and oil pipelines along with the influence it would provide. The problem is, in an engagement of limited scope Russia can use its vast military strength in numbers to overwhelm Ukraine regardless of what equipment they receive. It becomes a question, in that context, of manpower; Russia can afford (and importantly is unconcerned) to lose 10 people (and more) to every Ukrainian. It’s scary because Russia won’t end its ambitions when it’s immediate military objectives are met. It’s only a question of when Putin decides is the right moment to strike again. In the long run, Russia is fucked. It’s a question of how much damage they inflict in the short and medium term on Ukraine and others. Russia has taken one heck of a kicking and now is no longer capable of large scale operations (I'm talking in relative terms). Modern arms are flooding into Ukraine and the people of Ukraine have the motivation to attempt to re-take their land. I simply cannot see Ukraine sitting back and not attempting to push Russia back in the South, and for that operation not to happen soon.
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Post by partickpotter on May 21, 2022 8:52:25 GMT
The problem is, in an engagement of limited scope Russia can use its vast military strength in numbers to overwhelm Ukraine regardless of what equipment they receive. It becomes a question, in that context, of manpower; Russia can afford (and importantly is unconcerned) to lose 10 people (and more) to every Ukrainian. It’s scary because Russia won’t end its ambitions when it’s immediate military objectives are met. It’s only a question of when Putin decides is the right moment to strike again. In the long run, Russia is fucked. It’s a question of how much damage they inflict in the short and medium term on Ukraine and others. Russia has taken one heck of a kicking and now is no longer capable of large scale operations (I'm talking in relative terms). Modern arms are flooding into Ukraine and the people of Ukraine have the motivation to attempt to re-take their land. I simply cannot see Ukraine sitting back and not attempting to push Russia back in the South, and for that operation not to happen soon. I would love that to be the case, but, unusually for me as I’m a natural optimist, I’m pessimistic about Ukraine’s prospect in the east of their country.
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Post by xchpotter on May 21, 2022 12:18:55 GMT
Ukraine and the West cannot afford to let Russia keep the south. If Russia is allowed to dig in, then it will only be a matter of time before they regroup and push on to Odessa and therefore cut off Ukraine's ability to to ship its grain, sunflower oil and raw materials, effectively crippling the county and giving Russia a food equivalent of their gas and oil pipelines along with the influence it would provide. The problem is, in an engagement of limited scope Russia can use its vast military strength in numbers to overwhelm Ukraine regardless of what equipment they receive. It becomes a question, in that context, of manpower; Russia can afford (and importantly is unconcerned) to lose 10 people (and more) to every Ukrainian. It’s scary because Russia won’t end its ambitions when it’s immediate military objectives are met. It’s only a question of when Putin decides is the right moment to strike again. In the long run, Russia is fucked. It’s a question of how much damage they inflict in the short and medium term on Ukraine and others. I don't think Russia will be fucked in the long term. The moment this is over, even if Russia end up occupying big chunks of Ukraine, there will be no end of countries willing to resume trading and welcome them back on the pretext that Russia needs investment. We've already seen certain "friend" countries not a million miles away supplying items to Russia despite what they've done so I have little faith that Russia will be kept in the cold for long at all as business calls the shots and political leaders have the morals of an alley Tom cat. This will all be cosily forgotten by the international community in less than five years if not sooner.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on May 21, 2022 12:54:04 GMT
The problem is, in an engagement of limited scope Russia can use its vast military strength in numbers to overwhelm Ukraine regardless of what equipment they receive. It becomes a question, in that context, of manpower; Russia can afford (and importantly is unconcerned) to lose 10 people (and more) to every Ukrainian. It’s scary because Russia won’t end its ambitions when it’s immediate military objectives are met. It’s only a question of when Putin decides is the right moment to strike again. In the long run, Russia is fucked. It’s a question of how much damage they inflict in the short and medium term on Ukraine and others. I don't think Russia will be fucked in the long term. The moment this is over, even if Russia end up occupying big chunks of Ukraine, there will be no end of countries willing to resume trading and welcome them back on the pretext that Russia needs investment. We've already seen certain "friend" countries not a million miles away supplying items to Russia despite what they've done so I have little faith that Russia will be kept in the cold for long at all as business calls the shots and political leaders have the morals of an alley Tom cat. This will all be cosily forgotten by the international community in less than five years if not sooner. Five years…you’re optimistic…5 months more like. Greed has no morals
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Post by xchpotter on May 21, 2022 14:11:34 GMT
I don't think Russia will be fucked in the long term. The moment this is over, even if Russia end up occupying big chunks of Ukraine, there will be no end of countries willing to resume trading and welcome them back on the pretext that Russia needs investment. We've already seen certain "friend" countries not a million miles away supplying items to Russia despite what they've done so I have little faith that Russia will be kept in the cold for long at all as business calls the shots and political leaders have the morals of an alley Tom cat. This will all be cosily forgotten by the international community in less than five years if not sooner. Five years…you’re optimistic…5 months more like. Greed has no morals Yep, you are probably right sadly.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 21, 2022 14:40:12 GMT
I think the Ukrainians getting the "strategic initiative" by now was a long shot. Russia just had too many soldiers, tanks, guns and planes. But the pendulum is starting to swing. Swing to Russia do you mean? I suspect you are right. The longer this goes on the more likely Russia will succeed in its more limited military objectives. Which begs the question… what next when Russia has gained control of the eastern regions it is now focussing on. I suspect Russia will pause and try to re equip its forces. The question is how long is that pause. Will it constitute a respite in the current conflict, or will it mark the end in which case Russia’s next action, because there will be one, will come in 5 years or so. The bear is happy to hibernate between action. I meant towards Ukraine. Three months ago Russia had an overwhelming advantage in tanks, precision guided weapons and artillery. That's being nibbled away, Russia is replacing its modern losses with old soviet stock and Ukraine is going to replace its old soviet losses with modern NATO systems. Plus Ukraine mobilised months ago. Even if casualties were 1:1 the Russian advantage in combat power is falling.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 21, 2022 14:49:12 GMT
I don't think Russia will be fucked in the long term. The moment this is over, even if Russia end up occupying big chunks of Ukraine, there will be no end of countries willing to resume trading and welcome them back on the pretext that Russia needs investment. We've already seen certain "friend" countries not a million miles away supplying items to Russia despite what they've done so I have little faith that Russia will be kept in the cold for long at all as business calls the shots and political leaders have the morals of an alley Tom cat. This will all be cosily forgotten by the international community in less than five years if not sooner. I hope you're wrong mate. It all depends on oil and gas prices IMO but I'm not expecting the same type of rush back you are. Fwiw I see two ways to get investment: either open markets or basically letting China take over Russia in exchange for resources. Kind of like how the USSR gave Pepsi warships for pop. Putin has shown he can't be trusted not to steal your shit so if market investors want to do *anything* in Russia they'll demand high returns and very expensive insurance. Plus the rouble capital controls would have to relax which would cause another heap of problems. EDIT: I agree it'll be forgotten, but the timescale depends on who's leading. If Trump then the US will try to undermine the alliance of democracies and support Putin asap, but asap might still be a while. If pro-democracy leaders stay in power then support for Ukraine will stay until the west is basically free from Russian oil&gas.
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Post by foster on May 21, 2022 15:40:26 GMT
I think the wheels are already in motion regarding moving away from Russian Oil and Gas. I don't see the likes of the EU reversing that because the affected members just wouldn't accept it. Neither would the new countries vying for NATO membership that are currently being penalised. I just don't see the public in those countries accepting anything other than a full withdrawal from Russian resources.
The good thing to come put of this is that there's a renewed focus on clean energy and procuring locally sourced produce.
I think Russia is fucked and they'll be problems for years with other countries slowly asserting control over the outer bordering areas. Russia just can't defend all of it's territory.
The only way Russia is going to get out of this mess is if Putin is ousted and someone who embraces the west replaces him imo. Russia would also need to offer the resources as it does/did but at a much lower price, which in itself weakens their economy and future swaying power.
Simplistic view, but that's how I see it currently.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 21, 2022 16:19:09 GMT
I think the wheels are already in motion regarding moving away from Russian Oil and Gas. I don't see the likes of the EU reversing that because the affected members just wouldn't accept it. Neither would the new countries vying for NATO membership that are currently being penalised. I just don't see the public in those countries accepting anything other than a full withdrawal from Russian resources. The good thing to come put of this is that there's a renewed focus on clean energy and procuring locally sourced produce. I think Russia is fucked and they'll be problems for years with other countries slowly asserting control over the outer bordering areas. Russia just can't defend all of it's territory. The only way Russia is going to get out of this mess is if Putin is ousted and someone who embraces the west replaces him imo. Russia would also need to offer the resources as it does/did but at a much lower price, which in itself weakens their economy and future swaying power. Simplistic view, but that's how I see it currently. The way we support new offshore wind is special contracts that guarantee the wind farms a certain price. If fuel prices rocket then the wind farms end up paying us money. Past few months have been hundreds of millions of pounds back to taxpayers. Maybe this sort of price security will push a few more politicians into supporting extra renewables. New nukes were offered the same deal except they're more that twice the price of new wind. Might still be worth it.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 21, 2022 16:44:10 GMT
No reasons to be cheerful in John R Bruning'S latest briefing.
Ukraine Update:
Sievierodonetsk Pocket:
Right now, the situation appears to have worsened for the Ukrainians here. The Russian breakthrough at Popasna is being exploited with armored units, and while they have not cut the main supply route into Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk yet, that highway is now under intense artillery bombardment.
At the same time, Russian forces have launched heavy attacks north and northwest of Sievierodonetsk, which could pin Ukrainian forces in place and make any attempt to withdraw to avoid encirclement very difficult.
To the southeast of Sievierodonetsk, a major Russian assault has been grinding toward one of the city's bus stations. So the forces defending the city are being hit on at least two, possibly three sides, plus their rear is being threatened. It is a very serious situation.
Part of the reason for the Russian breakthrough at Popasna appears to be a logistical posture change that has been able to deliver a much higher quantity of artillery ammunition to the forces on the south side of the Pocket. Popasna is a key rail center, with lines going in all compass directions, something the Russians are exploiting. Exactly how they are doing it is unknown at the moment, and the Ukrainians are desperately trying to find those trains and the supply dumps they're delivering the shells to. But the net result has been the Russians were able to keep pounding the Ukrainian forces around Popasna 24/7 with massive artillery strikes without let up. The Ukrainian forces buckled, and the assaulting Russians have exploited that.
There is a lot of confusion and contradictory reporting right now. The ISW reporters that the Ukrainian general staff has stated the Russians in Popasna are digging in. It may be some units are preparing defensive positions in order to hold the breakthrough area against Ukrainian counter-attacks, but the majority of the units there seem to still be pressing their own offensive.
The Russians continue to try to cross the Siverskyi Donets River on the north side of the Pocket. Yesterday, it was reported that they successfully got across in one location. Today, there is at least one, possibly more, efforts undergoing right now to try and get across, with intense fighting the result.
A lot of the troops being thrown into these attacks around the Pocket seem to be Donbass conscripts: meaning Russian-speakers from former Ukrainian territory. The Russian army is great at using non-Russians as cannon fodder, and this seems to be what's going on here too. Some reports suggest that almost half the Russian casualties are Russian-speaking Ukrainians dragooned into service from the occupied areas.
-----------
At Izium, the Ukrainians have launched a counter-attack west of the city. They're currently in the middle of their own river crossing effort there. No word on if it has been successful.
More later today.
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Post by questionable on May 21, 2022 17:39:57 GMT
No reasons to be cheerful in John R Bruning'S latest briefing. Ukraine Update: Sievierodonetsk Pocket: Right now, the situation appears to have worsened for the Ukrainians here. The Russian breakthrough at Popasna is being exploited with armored units, and while they have not cut the main supply route into Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk yet, that highway is now under intense artillery bombardment. At the same time, Russian forces have launched heavy attacks north and northwest of Sievierodonetsk, which could pin Ukrainian forces in place and make any attempt to withdraw to avoid encirclement very difficult. To the southeast of Sievierodonetsk, a major Russian assault has been grinding toward one of the city's bus stations. So the forces defending the city are being hit on at least two, possibly three sides, plus their rear is being threatened. It is a very serious situation. Part of the reason for the Russian breakthrough at Popasna appears to be a logistical posture change that has been able to deliver a much higher quantity of artillery ammunition to the forces on the south side of the Pocket. Popasna is a key rail center, with lines going in all compass directions, something the Russians are exploiting. Exactly how they are doing it is unknown at the moment, and the Ukrainians are desperately trying to find those trains and the supply dumps they're delivering the shells to. But the net result has been the Russians were able to keep pounding the Ukrainian forces around Popasna 24/7 with massive artillery strikes without let up. The Ukrainian forces buckled, and the assaulting Russians have exploited that. There is a lot of confusion and contradictory reporting right now. The ISW reporters that the Ukrainian general staff has stated the Russians in Popasna are digging in. It may be some units are preparing defensive positions in order to hold the breakthrough area against Ukrainian counter-attacks, but the majority of the units there seem to still be pressing their own offensive. The Russians continue to try to cross the Siverskyi Donets River on the north side of the Pocket. Yesterday, it was reported that they successfully got across in one location. Today, there is at least one, possibly more, efforts undergoing right now to try and get across, with intense fighting the result. A lot of the troops being thrown into these attacks around the Pocket seem to be Donbass conscripts: meaning Russian-speakers from former Ukrainian territory. The Russian army is great at using non-Russians as cannon fodder, and this seems to be what's going on here too. Some reports suggest that almost half the Russian casualties are Russian-speaking Ukrainians dragooned into service from the occupied areas. ----------- At Izium, the Ukrainians have launched a counter-attack west of the city. They're currently in the middle of their own river crossing effort there. No word on if it has been successful. More later today. It’s depressing reading but look forward to Ukrainian gains, I’d love to see every pro Russian person wiped off the map. No idea where it’ll end but I hope Putin has an agonising end to his life.
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Post by bayernoatcake on May 22, 2022 10:21:37 GMT
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Post by prestwichpotter on May 23, 2022 9:23:29 GMT
Russia has taken one heck of a kicking and now is no longer capable of large scale operations (I'm talking in relative terms). Modern arms are flooding into Ukraine and the people of Ukraine have the motivation to attempt to re-take their land. I simply cannot see Ukraine sitting back and not attempting to push Russia back in the South, and for that operation not to happen soon. I would love that to be the case, but, unusually for me as I’m a natural optimist, I’m pessimistic about Ukraine’s prospect in the east of their country. I've posted less recently but read a bit more from various sources whilst holed up in a hotel with work and I've come to the conclusion that the stories of Ukranian resistance and Russian setbacks have both been exaggerated slightly. A lot was made of Kyiv not been taken but I'm not sure that it was ever a serious objective of the Russian military. The Black Sea region seems well and truly secured by the Russian navy, Melitopol, Kherson, Mariupol have been taken and I see nothing to suggest that Severodonetsk and Slovyansk in Luhansk won't succumb either. I wouldn't want to downplay some of Russia setbacks, particularly the likes of the Moskva sinking but was this more symbolic than a real strategic kick in the nuts in hindsight? They have certainly suffered losses in excess of what they would envisaged, and with that in mind and the current situation I believe both parties will be secretly keen to get back round the negotiating table and come up with an arrangement whereby they "save face" as much as possible..............
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Post by noustie on May 23, 2022 10:07:56 GMT
This isn't pulling any punches on Bush's cheeky little pisser of a faux pas. George W Bush is not funny | Opinions | Al Jazeera linkBut the effective annihilation of a nation is hardly a laughing matter. Ditto for the reduction to a split-second “Iraq, too, anyway” of hundreds of thousands of deaths, countless massacres of Iraqi civilians, the forcible displacement of millions of people, and the saturation of the country with toxic and radioactive munitions that continue to cause congenital birth defects, cancer, and all manner of other maladies nearly two decades after the launch of the “wholly unjustified and brutal invasion”.
One can imagine the horror that would ensue were a nonwhite non-Westerner to crack a joke about, say, the September 11 attacks, or some other event paling in comparison – in terms of human and material destruction – to the war on Iraq. Bush and his audience, on the other hand, are by virtue of imperial entitlement permitted to snicker at a reference to the mass slaughter of nonwhite non-Westerners as though it were merely an instance of self-deprecating humour on the part of the former imperial commander-in-chief.....
......
US allies, too, share a similar sense of humour and would-be wit – not to mention microphone issues. In July 2006, during the G8 conference in none other than Russia, an unattended microphone captured the banter between Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair, his faithful accomplice in the quest to obliterate Iraq.
It was less than a week into the latest effort by Israel – another imperial accomplice – to obliterate Lebanon via a 34-day bombing campaign that ultimately killed some 1,200 people, mainly civilians. Bush addressed his counterpart as: “Yo, Blair”, and, according to the transcript of the chat on the BBC website, the pair had a good laugh over the important matter of a sweater Blair had gifted Bush:
Bush: “I know you picked it out yourself.”
Blair: “Oh absolutely – in fact, I knitted it!”
The duo then proceeded to discuss the bloodshed in Lebanon, which in Bush’s view could be resolved not by getting Israel to stop massacring people but rather by getting Lebanon’s Hezbollah organisation – which, logically, was fighting back – “to stop doing this s***”.
Fast forward to the 2022 Iraq-I-mean-Ukraine gaffe at the George W Bush Presidential Centre in Dallas – the “wholly unjustified and brutal” decimation of a country condensed into a single imperial wisecrack – and one finds oneself wishing that it would all just stop.
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Post by noustie on May 23, 2022 10:34:26 GMT
I would love that to be the case, but, unusually for me as I’m a natural optimist, I’m pessimistic about Ukraine’s prospect in the east of their country. I've posted less recently but read a bit more from various sources whilst holed up in a hotel with work and I've come to the conclusion that the stories of Ukranian resistance and Russian setbacks have both been exaggerated slightly. A lot was made of Kyiv not been taken but I'm not sure that it was ever a serious objective of the Russian military. The Black Sea region seems well and truly secured by the Russian navy, Melitopol, Kherson, Mariupol have been taken and I see nothing to suggest that Severodonetsk and Slovyansk in Luhansk won't succumb either. I wouldn't want to downplay some of Russia setbacks, particularly the likes of the Moskva sinking but was this more symbolic than a real strategic kick in the nuts in hindsight? They have certainly suffered losses in excess of what they would envisaged, and with that in mind and the current situation I believe both parties will be secretly keen to get back round the negotiating table and come up with an arrangement whereby they "save face" as much as possible.............. Yeah pretty much where I am - I think as much as we accuse the Russians of stage managing this to their population in the media we’re doing it to some extent here too. Maybe in Putin’s wildest dreams if he’d swept through Ukraine then it may have been different but they’d have taken the land corridor and Black Sea stuff they’ve been on about from the start although it’s probably been much harder than they thought. In us claiming we’ve stopped them taking Kyiv and going further west it looks like some sort of success and allows some sort of negotiation/ outcome suitable to the masses at home swallow hopefully in time to host Eurovision.
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Post by adri2008 on May 23, 2022 11:49:34 GMT
I would love that to be the case, but, unusually for me as I’m a natural optimist, I’m pessimistic about Ukraine’s prospect in the east of their country. I've posted less recently but read a bit more from various sources whilst holed up in a hotel with work and I've come to the conclusion that the stories of Ukranian resistance and Russian setbacks have both been exaggerated slightly. A lot was made of Kyiv not been taken but I'm not sure that it was ever a serious objective of the Russian military. The Black Sea region seems well and truly secured by the Russian navy, Melitopol, Kherson, Mariupol have been taken and I see nothing to suggest that Severodonetsk and Slovyansk in Luhansk won't succumb either. I wouldn't want to downplay some of Russia setbacks, particularly the likes of the Moskva sinking but was this more symbolic than a real strategic kick in the nuts in hindsight? They have certainly suffered losses in excess of what they would envisaged, and with that in mind and the current situation I believe both parties will be secretly keen to get back round the negotiating table and come up with an arrangement whereby they "save face" as much as possible.............. I think Putin envisaged some sort of quick removal of the government in Kyiv with a puppet put in place along with eastern regions being absorbed into the Russian Federation. However it sounds like the special forces tasked with doing this were obliterated early on and then the regular army got bogged down with supply lines too overstretched. Meanwhile further south, things have gone much more to plan with pockets of resistance simply pounded with artillery until there's nothing to defend. Some agreement on Ukraine not joining Nato along with an arrangement on the Donetsk/Luhansk regions is going to be the only solution. The west seems keen to make this some sort of painful Afghanistan scenario for Russia though so no doubt Zelensky will be encouraged to resist negotiations for a while yet.
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Post by rorymscfc on May 23, 2022 12:33:09 GMT
[/quote]Yeah pretty much where I am - I think as much as we accuse the Russians of stage managing this to their population in the media we’re doing it to some extent here too. Maybe in Putin’s wildest dreams if he’d swept through Ukraine then it may have been different but they’d have taken the land corridor and Black Sea stuff they’ve been on about from the start although it’s probably been much harder than they thought.
In us claiming we’ve stopped them taking Kyiv and going further west it looks like some sort of success and allows some sort of negotiation/ outcome suitable to the masses at home swallow hopefully in time to host Eurovision.
[/quote]
Never forget the old saying: the first casualty of war is the truth.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 23, 2022 13:38:11 GMT
Some agreement on Ukraine not joining Nato along with an arrangement on the Donetsk/Luhansk regions is going to be the only solution. The west seems keen to make this some sort of painful Afghanistan scenario for Russia though so no doubt Zelensky will be encouraged to resist negotiations for a while yet. Don't you think Zelenskyy would want to resist regardless? I tried to put myself in Ukrainian shoes and imagine I would never, ever want to surrender. Russian success means millions of civilians left to be "filtered" by Russia. Unbelievable amounts of rape, torture and murder all over the place. Any surrender would just set them up to come back for more in future too. Ukraine is fighting for their lives against real evil here.
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Post by lawrieleslie on May 23, 2022 14:04:25 GMT
I would love that to be the case, but, unusually for me as I’m a natural optimist, I’m pessimistic about Ukraine’s prospect in the east of their country. I've posted less recently but read a bit more from various sources whilst holed up in a hotel with work and I've come to the conclusion that the stories of Ukranian resistance and Russian setbacks have both been exaggerated slightly. A lot was made of Kyiv not been taken but I'm not sure that it was ever a serious objective of the Russian military. The Black Sea region seems well and truly secured by the Russian navy, Melitopol, Kherson, Mariupol have been taken and I see nothing to suggest that Severodonetsk and Slovyansk in Luhansk won't succumb either. I wouldn't want to downplay some of Russia setbacks, particularly the likes of the Moskva sinking but was this more symbolic than a real strategic kick in the nuts in hindsight? They have certainly suffered losses in excess of what they would envisaged, and with that in mind and the current situation I believe both parties will be secretly keen to get back round the negotiating table and come up with an arrangement whereby they "save face" as much as possible.............. Truth…..the first casualty of war
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Post by adri2008 on May 23, 2022 15:10:06 GMT
Some agreement on Ukraine not joining Nato along with an arrangement on the Donetsk/Luhansk regions is going to be the only solution. The west seems keen to make this some sort of painful Afghanistan scenario for Russia though so no doubt Zelensky will be encouraged to resist negotiations for a while yet. Don't you think Zelenskyy would want to resist regardless? I tried to put myself in Ukrainian shoes and imagine I would never, ever want to surrender. Russian success means millions of civilians left to be "filtered" by Russia. Unbelievable amounts of rape, torture and murder all over the place. Any surrender would just set them up to come back for more in future too. Ukraine is fighting for their lives against real evil here. Alternative is a war of attrition though isn't it with civilians caught up in the middle of it all. Unless the Russians themselves remove Putin, there's no way he can simply back down with nothing to show for it.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 23, 2022 18:29:09 GMT
Don't you think Zelenskyy would want to resist regardless? I tried to put myself in Ukrainian shoes and imagine I would never, ever want to surrender. Russian success means millions of civilians left to be "filtered" by Russia. Unbelievable amounts of rape, torture and murder all over the place. Any surrender would just set them up to come back for more in future too. Ukraine is fighting for their lives against real evil here. Alternative is a war of attrition though isn't it with civilians caught up in the middle of it all. Unless the Russians themselves remove Putin, there's no way he can simply back down with nothing to show for it. Yeah that seems to be the alternative. Right now it looks like that means a lot less death and suffering overall IMO, so if I was Ukrainian I'd pick the fight just on that basis. Nevermind that surrendering would mean extermination of Ukrainians and their culture. Ukraine can still kick the Russian army to shit if we just give them the equipment.
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Post by noustie on May 24, 2022 12:31:59 GMT
www.globaltimes.cn/page/202205/1266390.shtmlBy stating the US would intervene militarily if the Chinese mainland takes the island of Taiwan by force, the Biden administration is taking a step further to hollow out the one-China policy, and Biden's remarks had led to China's strong opposition. Analysts warned that as the US and its spearheads, especially Japan, are using the Ukraine crisis to promote a cognitive battle to help with the de facto "independence" of the island of Taiwan, their schemes would encounter a stronger response from the Chinese mainland as the mainland makes no compromise on its core interests. Would imagine Japan and South Korea would be savvy enough to want more than a promise of tank guns and tampons before poking China to breaking point but if this explodes Ukraine will look like a pillow fight.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 24, 2022 15:27:28 GMT
Even pro-Ukraine people were writing off everything on the "wrong" side of the river in Luhansk but it seems like Russia is about to cut off everything in Luhansk. The reports suggest the Ukrainian army is also giving up a lot of well-fortified territory in Donetsk to avoid getting surrounded.
The map changes look good for Russia but the fog of war is so bad it's hard to tell whether they've actually got a real win here. IMO it's a question of how much each side lost, in particular whether Russia lost hundreds or thousands of vehicles, and whether their losses were modern stuff or junk.
The Ukrainians say Russia is pulling T-62s out of storage. I'm skeptical but maybe all the logistics people were right when they said most of Russia's stored tanks are rusted out hulks so they're already getting desperate.
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Post by Deleted on May 24, 2022 18:31:29 GMT
Alternative is a war of attrition though isn't it with civilians caught up in the middle of it all. Unless the Russians themselves remove Putin, there's no way he can simply back down with nothing to show for it. Yeah that seems to be the alternative. Right now it looks like that means a lot less death and suffering overall IMO, so if I was Ukrainian I'd pick the fight just on that basis. Nevermind that surrendering would mean extermination of Ukrainians and their culture. Ukraine can still kick the Russian army to shit if we just give them the equipment. You really are an idiot, like many of you on here that think by keep giving Ukraine more and more weapons they can beat Russia, they can't it just prolongs the war and kills more and more Ukrainians.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on May 24, 2022 18:38:58 GMT
For me the difference I think is, Russia is prepared to continuously sacrifice men and equipment and see them slaughtered in pursuit of their goals.
Cannot see any scenario where Ukraine (irrespective of the weapons it gets) defeating the Russians.
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