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Post by rivival on May 16, 2022 12:26:53 GMT
The only way this war will end is with the demise of Putin.
In one way or another he must lose power in Russia.
A new leader can then negotiate a withdrawal, which has to have conditions that stop it from being a humiliating defeat for Russia.
Perhaps we could get Russia to join NATO then everyone wins =)
The alternative and I don't say this lightly is Nuclear War, full on World Ending. Scary shit, but there it is Putin's ego will take us there if he isn't stopped.
That STOP needs to be sooner rather than later before he infects all his country with his insane ideas.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 16, 2022 17:56:34 GMT
Credit where it's due - Maccy D's tells Russia to fuck off. Time for people to crack out the "no fry zone" jokes again.
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Post by lordb on May 16, 2022 17:59:41 GMT
The only way this war will end is with the demise of Putin. In one way or another he must lose power in Russia. A new leader can then negotiate a withdrawal, which has to have conditions that stop it from being a humiliating defeat for Russia. Perhaps we could get Russia to join NATO then everyone wins =) He's not alone in his thinking in Russia though, and there will be others who are worse Suspect there might be a period of chaos post Putin as such anything could happen Gorbachev proposed an EU including Russia, his idea was a sliding scale of European Union, a Russian doll if you would The alternative and I don't say this lightly is Nuclear War, full on World Ending. Scary shit, but there it is Putin's ego will take us there if he isn't stopped. That STOP needs to be sooner rather than later before he infects all his country with his insane ideas.
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Post by lordb on May 16, 2022 18:00:54 GMT
The only way this war will end is with the demise of Putin. In one way or another he must lose power in Russia. A new leader can then negotiate a withdrawal, which has to have conditions that stop it from being a humiliating defeat for Russia. Perhaps we could get Russia to join NATO then everyone wins =) He's not alone in his thinking in Russia though, and there will be others who are worse Suspect there might be a period of chaos post Putin as such anything could happen Gorbachev proposed an EU including Russia, his idea was a sliding scale of European Union, a Russian doll if you would The alternative and I don't say this lightly is Nuclear War, full on World Ending. Scary shit, but there it is Putin's ego will take us there if he isn't stopped. That STOP needs to be sooner rather than later before he infects all his country with his insane ideas. Putin isn't alone in Russia with his views, others are likely to be worse Suspect a post Putin Russia will be chaotic
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Post by mtrstudent on May 16, 2022 18:03:50 GMT
The Institute for the Study of War suggests that Russia is giving up on encircling the Ukrainian army in both Donetsk and Luhansk. They're acting like they're just going for Luhansk now. Ukraine only holds ~10% of the land and two more towns: Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Even pro-Ukraine experts think they can't hold Sievierodonetsk, it's on the wrong side of the river.
It is going to be absolute hell for any Ukrainians stuck in there.
I hope we're getting more big guns to them pronto!
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Post by thehartshillbadger on May 16, 2022 18:17:22 GMT
I see the Meercats are back on the telly. Must be Tory Party donors. Disgraceful
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on May 16, 2022 21:58:15 GMT
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 17, 2022 5:58:12 GMT
Briefing by John R Bruning. The link in the tweet at the end feels pretty seismic to me, although it might be one man going off piste. Very Brief Ukraine Update: 1. Russian attacks continued to grind and gain little ground. 2. A Ukrainian counter-attack is now said to be 3 kilometers from the Russian main supply route servicing 20-22 battalion tactical groups around Izium. If the Ukrainians cut it, that will mean somewhere north of 10,000 Russian troops will run out of food, gas, and ammunition. 3. US-made 155mm artillery pieces are now in action in Ukraine. They were used to strike a Russian supply depot, killing an estimated hundred troops or so while destroying eight armored vehicles. 4. The first Mi-17 helicopters, armed with four rocket pods, reached Ukraine from the US in the last 48 hours. 5. Wounded Ukrainian troops have surrendered and have been evacuated from the steel works at Mariupol and are in Russian hands under an agreement between the two sides. -------------- Strategic Effects of the War: 1. The sudden cut-off of grain flowing from Ukraine and Russia is already having a profound effect on the other parts of the world. The Middle East has been hit hard by this, but the first real signs of food/energy insecurity are coming out of Sri Lanka. The country has announced it is out of gasoline, and food shortages are causing riots where wealthy citizens are being chased, beaten and robbed in the streets by hungry mobs. An example: 2. India, fearing it might not be able to feed its population, has suspended all wheat exports. Last year, India was #10 on the wheat export list of nations. This takes off line #1 (Russia, for some countries), #5 (Ukraine) and #10 (India), which will accelerate the global food crisis in the developing world. Already, there are predictions of famine by year's end. Sri Lanka seems to be the canary in that coal mine. Together, Russia, India and Ukraine accounted for almost 25% of global wheat exports in 2021. See here: www.worldstopexports.com/wheat-exports-country/Corey C Jordan was kind enough to share this with me, and it is worth watching. A retired Russian general is trying to inject some reality into the news cycle during one of Russia's top state-tv talk shows. This dovetails with recent pro-Russian milbloggers, including Russian ones, openly raking the Russian army's leadership across the coals. Lots of anger and criticism on how the campaign has been conducted from a group that had been regime stalwarts.
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Post by The Drunken Communist on May 17, 2022 6:21:36 GMT
What's happening in Sri Lanka is nothing to do with Ukraine, you can thank China's BRI & their eco-nut government for their dire situation.
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Post by Northy on May 17, 2022 10:12:57 GMT
Corey C Jordan was kind enough to share this with me, and it is worth watching. A retired Russian general is trying to inject some reality into the news cycle during one of Russia's top state-tv talk shows. This dovetails with recent pro-Russian milbloggers, including Russian ones, openly raking the Russian army's leadership across the coals. Lots of anger and criticism on how the campaign has been conducted from a group that had been regime stalwarts. Worrying at the end of that how brainwashed they are
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Post by musik on May 17, 2022 11:31:08 GMT
Crisis in the building sector.
Thousands of houses that can't be built. Lots of repair on flats that can't be done.
No concrete, no paint and so on.
Lots of workers standing ready, but no material.
They all blame the war. Isn't it more likely an effect of the covid-19 situation we've had?
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Post by Northy on May 17, 2022 11:36:15 GMT
Crisis in the building sector. Thousands of houses that can't be built. Lots of repair on flats that can't be done. No concrete, no paint and so on. Lots of workers standing ready, but no material. They all blame the war. Isn't it more likely an effect of the covid-19 situation we've had? yes, China's zero covid policy with major cities shut down for weeks, locking away workers and suppliers is having an effect
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Post by musik on May 17, 2022 11:44:35 GMT
Crisis in the building sector. Thousands of houses that can't be built. Lots of repair on flats that can't be done. No concrete, no paint and so on. Lots of workers standing ready, but no material. They all blame the war. Isn't it more likely an effect of the covid-19 situation we've had? yes, China's zero covid policy with major cities shut down for weeks, locking away workers and suppliers is having an effect And the increasing prices on food, furniture and energy - who should we blame?
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Post by Northy on May 17, 2022 12:45:15 GMT
yes, China's zero covid policy with major cities shut down for weeks, locking away workers and suppliers is having an effect And the increasing prices on food, furniture and energy - who should we blame? Sweden Blame OPEC countries for a start, they could easily open the taps a bit more to increase flow to reduce the price
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Post by partickpotter on May 17, 2022 12:47:13 GMT
Crisis in the building sector. Thousands of houses that can't be built. Lots of repair on flats that can't be done. No concrete, no paint and so on. Lots of workers standing ready, but no material. They all blame the war. Isn't it more likely an effect of the covid-19 situation we've had? It’s due to Brexit.
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Post by Northy on May 17, 2022 13:17:09 GMT
Crisis in the building sector. Thousands of houses that can't be built. Lots of repair on flats that can't be done. No concrete, no paint and so on. Lots of workers standing ready, but no material. They all blame the war. Isn't it more likely an effect of the covid-19 situation we've had? It’s due to Brexit. Nearly 30% of the worlds container ships are stuck in China with average delays of 75 days atm China's economy is tanking as some of the factories are shut, turned into Quarantine centres and temporary hospitals At the start of the pandemic people said they were going to boycott China, well now's the chance for the rest of the world to put their money where their mouths are, stop buying Chinese goods and also build their own manufacturing plants
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Post by questionable on May 17, 2022 14:04:06 GMT
The M777 Howitzers are a game changer, devastating piece of kit.
They’re causing havoc, range of 25 miles, laser guided and accurate to a few meters.
Some of the YouTube videos show how totally devastating they are, literally a local can call the gun crews, they establish the grid reference or pop up a tiny drone and they obliterate the Russians
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Post by mtrstudent on May 17, 2022 14:32:14 GMT
The M777 Howitzers are a game changer, devastating piece of kit. They’re cause causing havoc, range of 25 miles, laser guided and accurate to a few meters. Some of the YouTube videos show how totally devastating they are, literally a local can call the gun crews, they establish the grid reference or pop up a tiny drone and they obliterate the Russians I don't think the Ukrainians have laser-guided shells (Copperheads) but they might have GPS+dead reckoning guided (Excaliburs). That's probably what they'd prefer? Lasers need scouts or drones to spot. GPS just needs a commercial drone and a map grid. The downside is you can't track something that moves but I'm sure they'll work it out. Either way those YouTube videos show them doing incredible work. Game changers!
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Post by mtrstudent on May 17, 2022 14:47:40 GMT
2. A Ukrainian counter-attack is now said to be 3 kilometers from the Russian main supply route servicing 20-22 battalion tactical groups around Izium. If the Ukrainians cut it, that will mean somewhere north of 10,000 Russian troops will run out of food, gas, and ammunition. The Ukrainians had to cross a river in Russian artillery range so this seems too good to be true. I think we should be skeptical until footage is out. Ukraine released videos today of Russians blowing up ~5 miles from Izyum. It's a different direction that wouldn't cut them off though. 5. Wounded Ukrainian troops have surrendered and have been evacuated from the steel works at Mariupol and are in Russian hands under an agreement between the two sides. Russia and Ukraine are claiming victory here. I think Ukraine is right - they held for months and saved Zoporizhzhia. Mission accomplished. It's all confusing though, seems the non-wounded are still inside and the deal hasn't been worked out? I hope the defenders are saved, what they did is incredible. Even if some of them are far right assholes. 2. India, fearing it might not be able to feed its population, has suspended all wheat exports. Last year, India was #10 on the wheat export... They're saying it's because the heatwave ruined so many crops. Highlights what the Pentagon has been saying for years, climate change is a threat multiplier.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 17, 2022 16:33:05 GMT
An opinion piece by John R Bruning from his time as a journalist with the US Army in Afghanistan.
The Russian Army Continuum:
In 2010, I stood and listened to Afghan villagers as they described what the Russian occupation was like for them in the 1980s. It was a horrific litany of the most vicious and cruel acts I'd ever heard of--all designed to terrorize the Afghan population into submission.
One man in his fifties related to me how some Russian troops arrived in helicopters one day. They murdered and raped their way through the village. They grabbed him and force-fed him rocks. Then they pinned him to the ground and took turns jumping on his stomach and boot stomping him. He very nearly died in the aftermath, and still suffered daily pain from that torture.
The Afghans I spoke to that day went on to tell me how the predations of the Russian troops were so terrible that the bulk of the surviving villagers made the decision to escape to Pakistan and try to make it to a refugee camp. It was the dead of winter. The Russians had taken all their food, much of their clothing--anything of value. The village began to move out in the snow and freezing weather--some of the people did not even have shoes. Many died on the long, terrible walk to the border.
Flying over the Eastern part of Afghanistan, the legacy and scars of the Russo-Afghan War were everywhere. Entire villages were carpet bombed and abandoned, their ruins visible from the air. On the ground, the ruined compounds gave mute testimony to the firepower unleashed on the population. The barbarity backfired, as it only fueled resentment and swelled the ranks of the Muj, who fought back against the Russians with desperate tenacity.
In one valley that served as a supply line from Pakistan, I learned that the Russian ground attack pilots would strafe any farmer they caught out in the open. Just tending fields and orchards in the valley was dangerous. To stop the flow of supplies, the Russians carpet bombed the valley several times, using mustard gas at least once.
In ten years of war, the Red Army killed somewhere between 550,000 and three million Afghan civilians. Millions more were displaced after their homes and villages were destroyed.
In Syria these past years, the Russians have demonstrated similar behavior. They have targeted civilians as part of a larger strategy to inflict terror on the terrorists. They've killed the families of known insurgents. The capture of Aleppo with Russian forces, including Wagner mercenaries, resulted in the deaths of thousands of civilians.
So, the backstory to the Ukraine War is the Russian Army's continuum of behavior. It has not changed since World War II. The murders of civilians, the wanton pillaging and sexual assaults are simply a part of the tradition and legacy of the Russian military. Their values, strategic thinking, actions in the field all reflect this. They do not think or act like a Western Army and do not share the strategic values that evolved in the American military after WWII and Korea where we went from using carpet bombing and incendiaries to kill civilians from the air to doing everything possible to minimize civilian losses.
The Russian Army is a military that uses terror, torture and murder as a strategic implement to impose its will on resistant populations.
The nations of Eastern Europe know this all too well, and it is why they are doing everything possible to ensure Russian boots never touch their soil again.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 17, 2022 16:56:31 GMT
The Russian Army is a military that uses terror, torture and murder as a strategic implement to impose its will on resistant populations. The nations of Eastern Europe know this all too well, and it is why they are doing everything possible to ensure Russian boots never touch their soil again. I agree with John most of the way here. The whining about our weapons "extending the war" is true, but saying that means more death is either stupid or intentionally pushing Putin's propaganda IMO. How many more would die in Russia's death camps if they were also "filtering" the people of Kryvy Rih, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia right now? Our supplies helped save millions. I wonder if the Russian brutality would change if they mobilise more from At Petersburg and Moscow. From what I've read, much of the Russian military is from conservative rural areas. Liberal urban youth might behave differently if forced to the front lines.
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Post by questionable on May 17, 2022 17:39:19 GMT
The M777 Howitzers are a game changer, devastating piece of kit. They’re cause causing havoc, range of 25 miles, laser guided and accurate to a few meters. Some of the YouTube videos show how totally devastating they are, literally a local can call the gun crews, they establish the grid reference or pop up a tiny drone and they obliterate the Russians I don't think the Ukrainians have laser-guided shells (Copperheads) but they might have GPS+dead reckoning guided (Excaliburs). That's probably what they'd prefer? Lasers need scouts or drones to spot. GPS just needs a commercial drone and a map grid. The downside is you can't track something that moves but I'm sure they'll work it out. Either way those YouTube videos show them doing incredible work. Game changers! With the 155mm there’s literally dozens of suppliers when it comes to shells, they can hit moving targets easily from what I’ve seen on the Internet. The footage I’ve seen when the shell is released fins come out and it guides it to the targets or explodes a few inches off the ground which covers a 20 sq mt area with shrapnel.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 17, 2022 17:49:47 GMT
I don't think the Ukrainians have laser-guided shells (Copperheads) but they might have GPS+dead reckoning guided (Excaliburs). That's probably what they'd prefer? Lasers need scouts or drones to spot. GPS just needs a commercial drone and a map grid. The downside is you can't track something that moves but I'm sure they'll work it out. Either way those YouTube videos show them doing incredible work. Game changers! With the 155mm there’s literally dozens of suppliers when it comes to shells, they can hit moving targets easily from what I’ve seen on the Internet. The footage I’ve seen when the shell is released fins come out and it guides it to the targets or explodes a few inches off the ground which covers a 20 sq mt area with shrapnel. I could be totally wrong here, I didn't know about Excalibur shells until 2 weeks ago so I'm clearly pretty clueless US announcement was GPS/dead reckoning. The BAE webpage says you upload the target coords before firing. I think this is different than laser guided where you can change the target in flight?
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Post by prestwichpotter on May 18, 2022 21:33:08 GMT
The Institute for the Study of War suggests that Russia is giving up on encircling the Ukrainian army in both Donetsk and Luhansk. They're acting like they're just going for Luhansk now. Ukraine only holds ~10% of the land and two more towns: Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. Even pro-Ukraine experts think they can't hold Sievierodonetsk, it's on the wrong side of the river. It is going to be absolute hell for any Ukrainians stuck in there. I hope we're getting more big guns to them pronto! I’m afraid to say Sievierodonetsk will fall to Russia without them breaking sweat, a largely volunteer force I just hope the damage and casualties are kept to an absolute minimum and civilians can get out to safer ground
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Post by prestwichpotter on May 19, 2022 7:10:12 GMT
A Freudian slip if ever there was one……
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Post by mrcoke on May 19, 2022 17:11:31 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on May 19, 2022 19:07:31 GMT
We could give our own gas to help them get off earlier. The US just announced 18 more howitzers and 3 counter-artillery radars. The Russians released a video showing explosions near 3 of the ones already there. There's a decent chance those 3 survived. Congress just passed $40 BN with a lot for Ukraine. 11 Republicans voted against, once the midterm elections are done and their media has got people distracted from Bucha we should expect more of them to vote pro-Putin, hopefully not enough though.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 19, 2022 19:22:28 GMT
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Post by partickpotter on May 20, 2022 3:12:12 GMT
That story is from January 2022. Well out of date.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 20, 2022 6:27:08 GMT
That story is from January 2022. Well out of date. I meant to compare it with what they've lost. They were supposedly rearming rapid like since 2010 or so. Getting 400 "new" vehicles (including upgrades) a year and they've lost maybe 4,000 in three months! I just found it shocking.
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