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Post by mtrstudent on May 12, 2022 18:47:38 GMT
Ukraine has been a defacto member of NATO since 2014, when people say we "need to do something" they're way behind the curve, we already did, thats why there is a huge mess in Ukraine right now, because we (but mainly the US and Germany) did "do something" ... non of this would be happening had it not been for the coup of 2014, the west has set Ukraine up for this, as Kissinger once said "To be an enemy of the US is dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal" I hope they pay you in pounds instead of rubles mate.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 12, 2022 20:47:26 GMT
Another WWI comparison with Russia's latest tactic and a warning about shamen and toads from John R Bruning.
Ukraine Update
The Return of the Blood Miller of Verdun:
In February 1916, Germany's Chief of the Army General Staff Erich von Falkenhayn unleased a new strategy to end WWI in the West.
Exsanguination.
The idea behind the new strategy was to pick a place the French would have to defend, then smother the troops there with the largest artillery bombardment in human history. Taking land was less important than killing French soldiers, and the German troops on the ground were to only move forward in slow, deliberate advances carried out only after their artillery smashed everything in their line of advance.
There was no breakthrough intended or sought with this strategy. It was straight up a strategy of simple macro level killing. Bleed the French Army white until it collapses was the order of the day.
This horrific new offensive began in February 1916 with about 800 German artillery pieces firing a million shells into a 20 mile long front three miles deep. A hundred plus years later, the shell craters can still be seen, having permanently scarred the French countryside.
Initially, the new offensive seemed to work. The French took devastating losses, while German infantry units suffered very few. However, the exsanguination campaign required sustained commitments that sucked German resources away from other areas. Millions of artillery shells, gas shells, new barrels for the guns, etc. had to be fed into this tiny battlefront at a time when Germany was fighting a two front war.
And, as the campaign continued, it morphed into something more than Falkenhayn had intended, much like Stalingrad and Guadalcanal did in WWII: it became a titanic battle of wills between two warring nations. So much was staked on this battle, that Germany had to show its people some sort of success, which of course was defined by territory gained. As the campaign wore on through the spring and early summer, the Germans used infantry attacks more often to try and rip a hole in the French lines. Take Verdun, and German national morale would soar. Lose Verdun, and French morale may buckle.
Ultimately, this campaign to bleed the French white did just that, but it bled the German Army white as well. What had started as a way to minimize German losses ended with somewhere around 350,000 men killed, wounded or missing. The French lost about 400,000. Falkenhayn, who became known as the Blood Miller of Verdun, was demoted and sent to go invade Romania. The French Army, badly hurt by these losses, attempted a massive frontal assault offensive in the spring of 1917, lost tens of thousands of men in the first 48 hours to no gain, and mutinied. It was never the same after that.
A hundred years later, farmers in the Verdun area continue to plow up the remains of unknown soldiers from both sides. They are taken to the Ossuaire and interred there.
What does this have to do with Ukraine? ----------------
The Russians have a complex strategic dilemma. They've seen first hand that their maneuver battalion tactical groups have at best, limited abilities to carry out effective offensive operations. Troop morale is terrible. There are reports of local commanders executing some of their own men to motivate the others to go forward, a practice that harkens back to the classical era and was called Decimation in the Roman Army.
They lack supplies and in some areas, combat power to achieve a major breakthrough. They cannot replace tank and vehicle losses. And, unless they mobilize their entire nation, they are running out of manpower. A full mobilization could have lots of consequences on the Russian home front, so Putin has not done that yet.
The one thing the Russians have is artillery and its firepower. So they've gone full Falkenhayn and are using it to grind down the Ukrainian Army much as the Germans tried at Verdun. The Sievierodonetsk Pocket has become the 2022 version of the Verdun Salient of 1916. Here, the Ukrainians must fight and hold the majors cities, and that strategically has tied them to defending an area surrounded on three sides by the bulk of Russia's remaining forces--and its artillery assets.
We have no real idea on how hard the Ukrainians are being hit, as those numbers are well concealed by Kyiv and the Russian claims are ridiculously high. The Ukrainians are doing their best to mitigate Russian firepower by keeping much of their defenses mobile. Some are calling this yo-yo tactics. Basically, the Ukrainians have a network of fixed defenses resistant to artillery that anchor their lines. Between them, mobile Ukrainian forces are fighting delaying actions, falling back, counter-attacking, then falling back again. They're wearing away at the Russians at the same time the Russians are trying to wear down the Ukrainians. It is a massive battle of attrition. The Russians have gained some ground, but they have not achieved any of the deep penetrations I think most in the West would have expected from a heavily mechanized armor-heavy army. The Russians just don't have that capacity, too limited by their morale issues, training deficiencies, equipment and small logistics tail.
However, they can grind away, wear down the Ukrainians, then make key gains of lesser depth and requiring lesser penetrations. This is happening right now, and may be one of the most important moments of the campaign in the Donbas.
On the north side of the pocket, the Russians have attempted, or have actually crossed the Siverskyi-Donets River and might have established a foothold near a town called Belogorovka. If they are able to exploit this, they might be able to cut off Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk from immediately behind both cities. This would be a shallow penetration, not a deep one like the effort at Izium was designed to do, so it is within the capabilities of the Russian military at this point. Exactly what has happened at this bridgehead is unclear. There has been heavy fighting. Ukrainain Air Force jets have launched attacks, as have UKR artillery units. There are lots of drone photos of destroyed armored vehicles around wrecked pontoon bridges and both sides are claiming those are the other's tracks. One thing is clear, a large battle is taking place.
One account from a Ukrainian engineer is here:
There are unconfirmed reports that the Ukrainian forces defending the city of Sievierodonetsk received conflicting orders: stay and keep fighting/pull out. They were caught in the middle of moving/return to their defensive positions by the Russians and badly chewed up by artillery.
------------------------ Into this mix, the first Western artillery systems are arriving at the front lines. Ukrainian units have undergone crash training courses on them in Germany, working with U.S. National Guard units--including one Florida artillery battalion. These guns, the ammunition we provide, the counter-battery radar systems and the UAV's Turkey is providing will inflict heavy losses on Russian artillery units.
Additionally, they will be able to range across Russia's lines of supply, thanks to the successes reserve Ukrainian units have had in a counter-attack they've launched northeast of Kharkiv.
With the Russians focused on the Donbas, the Ukrainians have methodically cleared the Russian forces out of the Kharkiv area, pushed them out of artillery range of the city to relieve the civilian population there, and have driven all the way to the Russian border in one place. The Russians hold no more than a depth of 10 kms of Ukrainian territory in this area now, and Western-made artillery deployed to the region can barrage the rail lines, bridges and roads the Russian effort at Izium depends on. Additionally, a key Russian hydroelectric dam is now reportedly within Ukrainian artillery range.
Russian forces northeast of Kharkiv consist now of three battered BTGs. Maybe a couple thousand men total. This has forced the Russians to move troops away from the Donbas and send them north to Belgograd, the Russian border city that's northeast of Kharkiv. Ukrainian intelligence estimates the Russians now have about 20 BTGs there, which is almost as many as they threw into the Izium offensive. This could indicate they are planning to counter-attack and try to push the Ukrainians back to Kharkiv.
Whatever their intentions, the Ukrainians have forced the Russians to pull units away from their main effort in the Donbas, making them even more reliant on the grinding mill of artillery and possibly making it more difficult to reinforce whatever bridgehead they have established over the S. Donets.
----------------- Western news reports, based on Ukrainian official releases, have detailed the efforts the Russians have made to conceal their actual losses to their own people. If these stories are true, it is nothing short of ghoulish. In the Donbas, they have created what amounts to a gigantic body dump. Families wanting the remains of their loved ones have to bribe the guards to go search through the piles of corpses to find their son or husband. Other reports of bodies being stacked or stored elsewhere have dotted the narrative since February. Bottom line: if this is true, the Russians would only do this if 1.) they are short transport to return them home or 2.) they fear the domestic consequences if the actual casualties were known to its people.
------------------- The head of Russia's 2nd largest oil company died under strange circumstances. Allegedly, he died after a shaman gave him a dose of venom from a poisonous toad as a cure for a hangover. Alexander Subbotin had opposed the war in February and called for a quick peaceful resolution. He's the sixth billionaire oligarch to die under strange circumstances since the start of the war.
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Post by partickpotter on May 12, 2022 21:07:10 GMT
The re-tweet then. Righto. Not sure I’d tar all republicans with the same brush though. That’s a bit simplistic. Do you know if his view is shared with many other republicans. I suspect it’s not a singular opinion but it is a minority one. There’s quite a few Thanks for that. So, a minority of republicans voted against (57 out of 210). But a sizeable minority - more than a quarter. But still unfair to tar all Republicans with that brush as you did particularly as nearly 3/4 did support the bill which is quite a large majority.
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Post by mrcoke on May 12, 2022 22:21:47 GMT
The re-tweet then. Righto. Not sure I’d tar all republicans with the same brush though. That’s a bit simplistic. Do you know if his view is shared with many other republicans. I suspect it’s not a singular opinion but it is a minority one. There’s quite a few We should not be surprised at this there is a strong body of opinion in the USA who are opposed to getting into wars on foreign shores and more interested in making money selling arms to both sides. In the 1930s and 1940s there were many sympathisers for fascism in the USA, France and we even had Oswald Mosley, whose first wife Lady Cynthia Curzon joined the Labour Party, and was elected as the Labour MP for Stoke in 1929. She later joined Oswald's New Party and lost the 1931 election in Stoke. Roosevelt had a lot of opposition to the USA helping the UK to fight Hitler, and it was only Pearl harbour that brought the USA into the war on our side. The American military opposed the supply of arms to the UK, expecting we would sue for peace with Hitler when France was defeated.
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Post by partickpotter on May 13, 2022 6:19:59 GMT
We should not be surprised at this there is a strong body of opinion in the USA who are opposed to getting into wars on foreign shores and more interested in making money selling arms to both sides. In the 1930s and 1940s there were many sympathisers for fascism in the USA, France and we even had Oswald Mosley, whose first wife Lady Cynthia Curzon joined the Labour Party, and was elected as the Labour MP for Stoke in 1929. She later joined Oswald's New Party and lost the 1931 election in Stoke. Roosevelt had a lot of opposition to the USA helping the UK to fight Hitler, and it was only Pearl harbour that brought the USA into the war on our side. The American military opposed the supply of arms to the UK, expecting we would sue for peace with Hitler when France was defeated. You are quite right, there is a long term, deep rooted isolationist tradition in the US. History has show time and again though that it is selective, self interested and counter productive. In other words, it’s a tradition that doesn’t have a lot going for it. Only the most severely blinkered, hard of thinking people give it any credence. Mind you, there are a bunch of those (57 at the last count) in the ranks of the Republicans (and, no doubt, a similar number, albeit with different motivations and manifest in different ways, in the Democrats).
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Post by noustie on May 13, 2022 9:47:19 GMT
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Post by The Drunken Communist on May 13, 2022 19:05:47 GMT
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Post by Gods on May 14, 2022 0:27:20 GMT
I reckon NATO could do this fucker Putin in 2 short weeks.
They must know all his command lines and all his supply lines and we might as well drop one on the Kremlin while wer are at it and he's history.
No more running shit scared, lets finish this puff faced cunt.
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Post by Gods on May 14, 2022 0:30:37 GMT
I reckon NATO could do this fucker Putin in 2 short weeks.
They must know all his command lines and all his supply lines and we might as well drop one on the Kremlin while we are at it and he and his tin pot regime are history.
No more dancing round our hand bags or running shit scared, lets finish this puff faced cunt for good.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 14, 2022 4:43:47 GMT
Wikipedia just called the Battle of Kharkiv (2022), it now says: Status: Ukranian victoryAbsolutely incredible, heroic work by the armed forces of Ukraine. Imagine how many more civilians Russia's army would have murdered if they hadn't been kicked out. Things still look particularly bad in Luhansk from the information leaking. Here's hoping for more footage of wrecked pontoon bridges and Russian brigades.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 14, 2022 4:45:02 GMT
People like Putin want to keep folks torn apart and hating each other. With a bit of luck Ukrainian refugees can persuade Putin fans what a cunt he is and goodness will prevail
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Post by mtrstudent on May 14, 2022 5:00:35 GMT
[snip] Initially, the new offensive seemed to work. The French took devastating losses, while German infantry units suffered very few. However, the exsanguination campaign required sustained commitments that sucked German resources away from other areas. Millions of artillery shells, gas shells, new barrels for the guns, etc. had to be fed into this tiny battlefront at a time when Germany was fighting a two front war. [snip] The one thing the Russians have is artillery and its firepower. So they've gone full Falkenhayn and are using it to grind down the Ukrainian Army much as the Germans tried at Verdun. The Sievierodonetsk Pocket has become the 2022 version of the Verdun Salient of 1916. Here, the Ukrainians must fight and hold the majors cities, and that strategically has tied them to defending an area surrounded on three sides by the bulk of Russia's remaining forces--and its artillery assets. We have no real idea on how hard the Ukrainians are being hit, as those numbers are well concealed by Kyiv and the Russian claims are ridiculously high. The Ukrainians are doing their best to mitigate Russian firepower by keeping much of their defenses mobile. Some are calling this yo-yo tactics. Basically, the Ukrainians have a network of fixed defenses resistant to artillery that anchor their lines. Between them, mobile Ukrainian forces are fighting delaying actions, falling back, counter-attacking, then falling back again. They're wearing away at the Russians at the same time the Russians are trying to wear down the Ukrainians. It is a massive battle of attrition. The Russians have gained some ground, but they have not achieved any of the deep penetrations I think most in the West would have expected from a heavily mechanized armor-heavy army. The Russians just don't have that capacity, too limited by their morale issues, training deficiencies, equipment and small logistics tail. However, they can grind away, wear down the Ukrainians, then make key gains of lesser depth and requiring lesser penetrations. This is happening right now, and may be one of the most important moments of the campaign in the Donbas. [snip] I'm desperately crossing my fingers for the Ukrainians. People have been recording themselves under artillery barrage and even through a screen the horror is off the charts. Russia isn't using much precision weaponry so maybe it's already low and their big artillery advantage will slip if the West gives Ukraine enough kit. That would be nothing like WWI: any Russian guns that stay still will get whacked thanks to drones + guided shells. So long as we also give them good AA. Recent reports claim the Russians are stripping microchips from washing machines etc for weapons. Every month of sanctions bites harder and Russia's tech advantage over Ukraine will shrink. IMO the current trajectory looks ok unless Putin does something drastic, or Trump Republicans and other Putinist Western parties get big election wins.
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Post by partickpotter on May 14, 2022 5:59:34 GMT
I reckon NATO could do this fucker Putin in 2 short weeks. They must know all his command lines and all his supply lines and we might as well drop one on the Kremlin while wer are at it and he's history. No more running shit scared, lets finish this puff faced cunt. How many nuclear weapons do you reckon can be launched in two short weeks?
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Post by Gods on May 14, 2022 6:22:26 GMT
I reckon NATO could do this fucker Putin in 2 short weeks. They must know all his command lines and all his supply lines and we might as well drop one on the Kremlin while wer are at it and he's history. No more running shit scared, lets finish this puff faced cunt. How many nuclear weapons do you reckon can be launched in two short weeks? They could launch them anytime though couldn't they? Today, tomorrow, next week. In Ukraine because they can't win there, towards the Wwest because we are arming Ukraine to the hilt and providing intelligence. What would push them over the edge, something, nothing. I don't know.
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Post by partickpotter on May 14, 2022 6:29:42 GMT
How many nuclear weapons do you reckon can be launched in two short weeks? They could launch them anytime though couldn't they? Today, tomorrow, next week. In Ukraine because they can't win there, towards the Wwest because we are arming Ukraine to the hilt and providing intelligence. What would push them over the edge, something, nothing. I don't know. If they were invaded I think they’d quite possibly use them, but not definitely. Otherwise not. It’s a good reason not to invade. That’s why they are considered to be a deterrent. Shits on CND unilateral arguments of course.
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Post by Gods on May 14, 2022 6:59:35 GMT
They could launch them anytime though couldn't they? Today, tomorrow, next week. In Ukraine because they can't win there, towards the Wwest because we are arming Ukraine to the hilt and providing intelligence. What would push them over the edge, something, nothing. I don't know. If they were invaded I think they’d quite possibly use them, but not definitely. Otherwise not. It’s a good reason not to invade. That’s why they are considered to be a deterrent. Shits on CND unilateral arguments of course. Yep, felt more enraged about the barbarity Putin is raining down on Ukraine last night than usual. He really is shelling a vast country in to the dark ages while the world watches. Thank god Putin's old mucker and another christian fundamentalist loon Trump is not in the White House cheering him on, not yet anyway
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Post by mrcoke on May 14, 2022 9:19:19 GMT
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 14, 2022 9:33:15 GMT
That's inevitably how it will end, with some compromise that allows Putin his "victory" without emboldening him to go any further. Almost everyone has been saying this from the start. Anyone who thinks Putin will humbly accept a bloodied nose and crawl away is mistaken. The longer it drags out, the more economic pain Russia gets. Wars nearly always end when money runs out and/or there are internal moves to depose leaders. In the absence of either of those two considerations at present, some form of fave-saving arrangement has always been most likely. Distasteful to everyone who'd enjoy seeing Putin get royally shafted, but that's the realpolitik of it. Naive to pretend otherwise. Besides, Macron has got much less to be embarrassed about in his dealings with Russia now and leading up to this war than say Johnson, Trump, Le Pen, Scholz etc.
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Post by mrcoke on May 14, 2022 15:41:03 GMT
That's inevitably how it will end, with some compromise that allows Putin his "victory" without emboldening him to go any further. Almost everyone has been saying this from the start. Anyone who thinks Putin will humbly accept a bloodied nose and crawl away is mistaken. The longer it drags out, the more economic pain Russia gets. Wars nearly always end when money runs out and/or there are internal moves to depose leaders. In the absence of either of those two considerations at present, some form of fave-saving arrangement has always been most likely. Distasteful to everyone who'd enjoy seeing Putin get royally shafted, but that's the realpolitik of it. Naive to pretend otherwise. Besides, Macron has got much less to be embarrassed about in his dealings with Russia now and leading up to this war than say Johnson, Trump, Le Pen, Scholz etc. I worked for the French for 7 years and chaired a European committee and always faced the problem that you never knew where you stood with them. One day they would say one thing, the next they were saying something else - a bit like Johnson! Today the French have joined in a G7 announcement of support for Ukraine and calling for Russia to stop the war. www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/g7-countries-call-on-russia-to-end-war-on-ukraine/2588028If you were to challenge them and say "Y esterday you were calling for Ukraine to make concessions", they would see no contradiction, and just shrug their shoulders.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 14, 2022 17:44:40 GMT
That's inevitably how it will end, with some compromise that allows Putin his "victory" without emboldening him to go any further. Almost everyone has been saying this from the start. Anyone who thinks Putin will humbly accept a bloodied nose and crawl away is mistaken. The longer it drags out, the more economic pain Russia gets. Wars nearly always end when money runs out and/or there are internal moves to depose leaders. In the absence of either of those two considerations at present, some form of fave-saving arrangement has always been most likely. Distasteful to everyone who'd enjoy seeing Putin get royally shafted, but that's the realpolitik of it. Naive to pretend otherwise. Besides, Macron has got much less to be embarrassed about in his dealings with Russia now and leading up to this war than say Johnson, Trump, Le Pen, Scholz etc. I worked for the French for 7 years and chaired a European committee and always faced the problem that you never knew where you stood with them. One day they would say one thing, the next they were saying something else - a bit like Johnson! Today the French have joined in a G7 announcement of support for Ukraine and calling for Russia to stop the war. www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/g7-countries-call-on-russia-to-end-war-on-ukraine/2588028If you were to challenge them and say "Y esterday you were calling for Ukraine to make concessions", they would see no contradiction, and just shrug their shoulders. What did you make of Putin when you met him?
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Post by plug on May 14, 2022 19:08:22 GMT
That's inevitably how it will end, with some compromise that allows Putin his "victory" without emboldening him to go any further. Almost everyone has been saying this from the start. Anyone who thinks Putin will humbly accept a bloodied nose and crawl away is mistaken. The longer it drags out, the more economic pain Russia gets. Wars nearly always end when money runs out and/or there are internal moves to depose leaders. In the absence of either of those two considerations at present, some form of fave-saving arrangement has always been most likely. Distasteful to everyone who'd enjoy seeing Putin get royally shafted, but that's the realpolitik of it. Naive to pretend otherwise. Besides, Macron has got much less to be embarrassed about in his dealings with Russia now and leading up to this war than say Johnson, Trump, Le Pen, Scholz etc. I would say it's you that's being naive if you think the Ukrainians will offer any sort of concessions to end this after what they've been through.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 14, 2022 19:34:54 GMT
That's inevitably how it will end, with some compromise that allows Putin his "victory" without emboldening him to go any further. Almost everyone has been saying this from the start. Anyone who thinks Putin will humbly accept a bloodied nose and crawl away is mistaken. The longer it drags out, the more economic pain Russia gets. Wars nearly always end when money runs out and/or there are internal moves to depose leaders. In the absence of either of those two considerations at present, some form of fave-saving arrangement has always been most likely. Distasteful to everyone who'd enjoy seeing Putin get royally shafted, but that's the realpolitik of it. Naive to pretend otherwise. Besides, Macron has got much less to be embarrassed about in his dealings with Russia now and leading up to this war than say Johnson, Trump, Le Pen, Scholz etc. I would say it's you that's being naive if you think the Ukrainians will offer any sort of concessions to end this after what they've been through. We'll see. Sad to say, but they're not going to win a war against Russia, nor is Putin going to accept a defeat. If it drags on, eventually the international community will put pressure on both parties to accept a compromise. That, to me, still seems the likeliest ultimate outcome. It's usually the case. There are relatively few countries in Europe whose borders have never changed. Nothing unusual in it.
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Post by OldStokie on May 14, 2022 21:00:57 GMT
That's inevitably how it will end, with some compromise that allows Putin his "victory" without emboldening him to go any further. Almost everyone has been saying this from the start. Anyone who thinks Putin will humbly accept a bloodied nose and crawl away is mistaken. The longer it drags out, the more economic pain Russia gets. Wars nearly always end when money runs out and/or there are internal moves to depose leaders. In the absence of either of those two considerations at present, some form of fave-saving arrangement has always been most likely. Distasteful to everyone who'd enjoy seeing Putin get royally shafted, but that's the realpolitik of it. Naive to pretend otherwise. Besides, Macron has got much less to be embarrassed about in his dealings with Russia now and leading up to this war than say Johnson, Trump, Le Pen, Scholz etc. Not sure you're right RWB. The weaponry NATO has supplied to the Ukrainians plus the unforeseen rubbish state of the Russian military has changed things. At one point I would have agreed with your sentiments. Now, over time, providing the UKR have the forces to carry on, added to the new technological weapons NATO has sent them, they (acting as a NATO proxy) could actually win this war. However, that in itself could be a bad thing because Putin still has tactical nuclear weapons he could use if he's driven into a corner like a trapped rat. I just hope those actually running this war - the US and the UK military - have got every event covered, and if they think Putin will use them, then they actually 'make' Zelensky cede some territory (for now) to bring this chaos to an end. I think the most difficult thing will be ceding the vast swathes of corn growing and mining areas in the Donbas, which account for much of UKR's foreign earnings. It's still very delicate and complex. OS.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 14, 2022 21:46:04 GMT
Short update and observations from last night by John R Bruning.
The manic threats continue coming out of Moscow.
This week, the Russians threatened Finland should it choose to join NATO. Threat #1: Russia will put nuclear weapons on its border with Finland. Threat #2: Unspecified retaliation, which sounded like cyber warfare against the best-prepared country in the world to such attacks. Threat #3: They cut off all electricity sales to Finland, and have made noise about cutting off all oil exports to the country. Finland has already reduced its importation of Russian oil by 70% and has planned to divest completely from Russian sources by summer.
Finland went ahead and petitioned to join NATO.
Today, a Russian lawmaker, Russian State Duma Deputy Oleg Morozov, posted this on his Telegram page: By its statements about Russia as a 'cancer tumor' and about the 'indemnity' that we must pay to Ukraine, Poland encourages us to put it in first place in the queue for denazification after Ukraine
Can't win the war you're fighting? Threaten to start three others! This is the Imperial Japanese school of diplomacy, circa 1938.
The Russians have completely lost their grip on foreign policy. They have no way to contain the damage their invasion has caused, made worse by how its army has behaved. They have no carrots to offer, only a stick. But the stick is stuck in Ukraine, and their threats are not deterring any nation at this point.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 14, 2022 21:52:30 GMT
John R Bruning briefing from this morning.
Brief Ukraine Update
The Russians are losing about 2/3rds of a battalion combat group a day right now. The Ukrainian claim to have destroyed 1200+ tanks. Oryx, the group that has been counting wrecked vehicles using only still and video evidence, has the number close to 700, with about 3,600 total Russian armored vehicles destroyed. So the Ukrainians aren't too far off from the visually documented losses.
There is a report that a Russian battalion near the failed bridgehead across the S. Donets refused orders to advance. Additionally, a separatist battalion outside of Kharkiv was thrown back and nearly destroyed by the Ukrainian counter-offensive. They fell back to the Russian border, where the Russians have not let them cross. So, they're basically pinned against the frontier with the Russians behind them and the Ukrainians advancing on them. Rough times to be a separatist. Their bolt action rifles are not going to save them, that's for sure.
If these reports and others from the end of April recounting stories of Russian individuals, groups and units disobeying orders are true, the Russian Army is facing a serious morale crisis, complete with growing signs that discipline breakdowns are becoming more common.
One estimate concluded that the Russian Army has 180 total battalion tactical groups, BTGs. There were 120 deployed into Ukraine during the initial phase of the invasion. Right now, roughly 50-55 of them have been destroyed or made combat incapable, with others suffering significant losses as well. The situation has grown so severe, the Russians have been forced to consolidate chewed up units and merge them together because they simply do not have replacement vehicles or men to reinforce their existing units.
It is quite possible that in the next 7-14 days, we'll see the Russians shift to a defensive posture to try and hold the gains they've made, while the Ukrainians seize the strategic initiative and launch new counter-attacks. My guess is they'll hit the Russians around Kherson next and try to forestall the Russian attempt to annex that region.
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Post by mtrstudent on May 15, 2022 2:08:40 GMT
I would say it's you that's being naive if you think the Ukrainians will offer any sort of concessions to end this after what they've been through. We'll see. Sad to say, but they're not going to win a war against Russia, nor is Putin going to accept a defeat. If it drags on, eventually the international community will put pressure on both parties to accept a compromise. That, to me, still seems the likeliest ultimate outcome. It's usually the case. There are relatively few countries in Europe whose borders have never changed. Nothing unusual in it. Can't Putin spin lots of things as a victory though? Let's say the Russian military collapses over the next few months, and Western support stays strong. Ukraine could make an offer for Putin to announce a win: 1) rename the Azov regiment: Ukraine is "denazified" 2) agree to not join NATO for X years: Ukraine is "neutral" 3) agree to crush its Soviet era equipment by 2030: Ukraine is "demilitarised" 4) Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea vote which country to join and the Ukrainian constitution adds some lines about the Russian language: Russians are "protected". He can say he achieved four of his big aims. It's long odds for Ukraine to get a big enough victory, but with hundreds more howitzers, and enough guided munitions and AA they just might be able to knock out the Russian army.
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Post by dirtclod on May 15, 2022 4:52:58 GMT
Putin doesn't give up on anything, but isn't afraid to "adjust" his tactics to "get there."
Agree that he could certainly use those 4 points to declare glorious victory when the sanctions finally hit his pain-threshold. (Or when guided munitions hit his pain-threshold for him)
Hopefully it occurs soon and he's hunted down for war-crimes or assassinated by Ukrainian nationalists, but that's just sentimentality on my part.
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Post by RichieBarkerOut! on May 15, 2022 5:04:27 GMT
Info graphic from yesterday's post by John Bruning.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 15, 2022 7:31:01 GMT
We'll see. Sad to say, but they're not going to win a war against Russia, nor is Putin going to accept a defeat. If it drags on, eventually the international community will put pressure on both parties to accept a compromise. That, to me, still seems the likeliest ultimate outcome. It's usually the case. There are relatively few countries in Europe whose borders have never changed. Nothing unusual in it. Can't Putin spin lots of things as a victory though? Let's say the Russian military collapses over the next few months, and Western support stays strong. Ukraine could make an offer for Putin to announce a win: 1) rename the Azov regiment: Ukraine is "denazified" 2) agree to not join NATO for X years: Ukraine is "neutral" 3) agree to crush its Soviet era equipment by 2030: Ukraine is "demilitarised" 4) Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea vote which country to join and the Ukrainian constitution adds some lines about the Russian language: Russians are "protected". He can say he achieved four of his big aims. It's long odds for Ukraine to get a big enough victory, but with hundreds more howitzers, and enough guided munitions and AA they just might be able to knock out the Russian army. Good points. That's what I mean by a compromise. Ukraine is unlikely to be able to push Russia completely out of the country in a total and humiliating defeat, so some form of face-saving arrangement for Putin is probably necessary. I'd love to see Russia thrown out as this is what they deserve but I suspect the realpolitik, which includes a desire to avoid escalation by a desperate and humiliated Putin, is more likely to result in compromise than a clear cut endpoint. It's difficult to see currently what might be acceptable to both sides.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on May 16, 2022 12:09:23 GMT
Credit where it's due - Maccy D's tells Russia to fuck off.
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