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Post by ross1396 on Aug 10, 2021 20:25:01 GMT
first corner and Souttar scores.... sign of things to come!
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Post by FullerMagic on Aug 10, 2021 20:30:16 GMT
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Post by clarkeda on Aug 10, 2021 20:35:00 GMT
That’s a colossal header. Even taking away the height difference. On reflection he seems to do the Crouch jump (making himself smaller by jumping) Really well placed header.
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Post by ross1396 on Aug 10, 2021 20:36:05 GMT
That delivery and that height, you cannot defend it, exciting times.
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Post by Mint Berry Barks on Aug 10, 2021 20:37:42 GMT
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Post by Bojan Mackey on Aug 10, 2021 20:38:50 GMT
Bang on the money that is, it’s always baffled me how professional footballers take utter dogshit corners, Vrancic does that with his eyes shut.
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Post by houstonsteve on Aug 10, 2021 20:38:50 GMT
Yet another absolutely undefendable corner from Vrancic and thats a belting header from Souttar.
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Post by RedandWhite90 on Aug 10, 2021 20:43:39 GMT
Mario could be worth the season ticket price on his own this season.
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Post by potterpaul on Aug 10, 2021 21:05:15 GMT
From the BBC report.
Stoke sealed victory with just over 10 minutes remaining when Mario Vrancic headed in from close range following Harry Souttar's corner.
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Post by middleoftheboothen on Aug 10, 2021 21:10:30 GMT
Mario could be worth the season ticket price on his own this season. I know exciting times it really is.
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Post by AlliG on Aug 11, 2021 11:54:58 GMT
From the BBC report. Stoke sealed victory with just over 10 minutes remaining when Mario Vrancic headed in from close range following Harry Souttar's corner. That can't be true. It's only Nige who can't identify the players and cocks up the names.
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Post by tachyon on Aug 12, 2021 17:51:49 GMT
Mario Vrancic by the numbers & what he might bring to Stoke in 2021/22.
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Post by rickyfullerbeer on Aug 12, 2021 18:55:14 GMT
Souttar to score anytime is 14/1 with William Hill. Worth a fiver.
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Post by clarkeda on Aug 12, 2021 19:07:39 GMT
Mario Vrancic by the numbers & what he might bring to Stoke in 2021/22. You are my favourite poster on this board. Don’t suppose you could extrapolate Surridge performance from the first 2 games over a full season/ how his first 2 games stack up against the previous analysis (if that makes sense).
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Post by a on Aug 12, 2021 19:41:31 GMT
Mario Vrancic by the numbers & what he might bring to Stoke in 2021/22. You are my favourite poster on this board. Don’t suppose you could extrapolate Surridge performance from the first 2 games over a full season/ how his first 2 games stack up against the previous analysis (if that makes sense). Tachyon is great. Can’t believe there are some on here who openly disregard statistics. Probably why those who know football use them, or at least those that are successful.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 12, 2021 20:48:20 GMT
You are my favourite poster on this board. Don’t suppose you could extrapolate Surridge performance from the first 2 games over a full season/ how his first 2 games stack up against the previous analysis (if that makes sense). Tachyon is great. Can’t believe there are some on here who openly disregard statistics. Probably why those who know football use them, or at least those that are successful. People so often use anecdata to combat statistics and aim to mislead people into saying that they equate to having the same strength of evidence. I saw this, that player did that, this didn’t happen to me etc. It’s so tiresome. I really enjoy these articles, that actually are compiled through statistical models and utilising huge databases rather than just being overloaded with basic opinions.
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Post by a on Aug 12, 2021 20:54:07 GMT
Tachyon is great. Can’t believe there are some on here who openly disregard statistics. Probably why those who know football use them, or at least those that are successful. People so often use anecdata to combat statistics and aim to mislead people into saying that they equate to having the same strength of evidence. I saw this, that player did that, this didn’t happen to me etc. It’s so tiresome. I really enjoy these articles, that actually are compiled through statistical models and utilising huge databases rather than just being overloaded with basic opinions. Very true. No conjecture or rose tinted spectacles or agendas.
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Post by teenagefanclub on Aug 12, 2021 21:25:48 GMT
Design for life has to be up there as one of the best songs ever written in my opinion.
Massively under rated band.
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Post by lordherefordsknob on Aug 13, 2021 5:34:47 GMT
Mario could be worth the season ticket price on his own this season. I know exciting times it really is. Vrancic looks like being the difference between a promotion push and mid table mediocrity,
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Post by Staffsoatcake on Aug 13, 2021 6:41:08 GMT
From the BBC report. Stoke sealed victory with just over 10 minutes remaining when Mario Vrancic headed in from close range following Harry Souttar's corner. It also said we beat Birmingham.
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Post by tachyon on Aug 13, 2021 7:31:25 GMT
Mario Vrancic by the numbers & what he might bring to Stoke in 2021/22. You are my favourite poster on this board. Don’t suppose you could extrapolate Surridge performance from the first 2 games over a full season/ how his first 2 games stack up against the previous analysis (if that makes sense). cheers, mate. He's made an encouraging start, but it is only two games (one subbed in, one subbed out). It'll move the dial in his favour, but only slightly. I can tell you that Championship players who score a goal in each of their first two games at the start of a season since 2014/15, go on to average 10 league goals in that season, playing around 2500 minutes (or 28 full 90's). 20% of those players score 20 or more goals and 35% scored 6 or fewer.
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Post by tachyon on Aug 13, 2021 7:48:26 GMT
Tachyon is great. Can’t believe there are some on here who openly disregard statistics. Probably why those who know football use them, or at least those that are successful. People so often use anecdata to combat statistics and aim to mislead people into saying that they equate to having the same strength of evidence. I saw this, that player did that, this didn’t happen to me etc. It’s so tiresome. I really enjoy these articles, that actually are compiled through statistical models and utilising huge databases rather than just being overloaded with basic opinions. This pretty much sums up the modern approach to recruitment. It's virtually impossible to free yourself from unconscious (and conscious) biases, when relying solely on an often incomplete "eye test" to judge players. Vrancic has played over 17,000 minutes of tier two or above football since 2007/08. Assuming it is even available, it would take you 12 days at normal speed to just watch that footage, nearer 18 if you actually wanted to get some sleep. Data can do that in a couple of minutes. Then it can compare one player's output at the same age with anothers, then it can look at the output of the team he's played for to add context. It can compare the career arcs of similar players. Again in minutes. Data isn't tied to initial or recent evidence. It doesn't become invested in a single opinion & make irrational excuses for poorer than expected performances. There's nothing wrong with just watching a player's highlights clips, but projecting on that basis isn't evidence based assessment, it's just bants!
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Post by Olgrligm on Aug 13, 2021 9:45:01 GMT
People so often use anecdata to combat statistics and aim to mislead people into saying that they equate to having the same strength of evidence. I saw this, that player did that, this didn’t happen to me etc. It’s so tiresome. I really enjoy these articles, that actually are compiled through statistical models and utilising huge databases rather than just being overloaded with basic opinions. This pretty much sums up the modern approach to recruitment. It's virtually impossible to free yourself from unconscious (and conscious) biases, when relying solely on an often incomplete "eye test" to judge players. Vrancic has played over 17,000 minutes of tier two or above football since 2007/08. Assuming it is even available, it would take you 12 days at normal speed to just watch that footage, nearer 18 if you actually wanted to get some sleep. Data can do that in a couple of minutes. Then it can compare one player's output at the same age with anothers, then it can look at the output of the team he's played for to add context. It can compare the career arcs of similar players. Again in minutes. Data isn't tied to initial or recent evidence. It doesn't become invested in a single opinion & make irrational excuses for poorer than expected performances. There's nothing wrong with just watching a player's highlights clips, but projecting on that basis isn't evidence based assessment, it's just bants! I love reading this stuff, but I think it raises an obvious question. There's going to be an ever increasing pool of teams taking this approach. They will all be analysing the same data in the same way and, therefore, coming out with the same result. In other words, everybody will target the same players. I think we are already beginning to see that in our league, where it seems like every player who is available - Delap and the guy at Villa are two examples - have a queue of the same clubs lining up to take them on. Likewise, the idea of picking up a hidden gem on the cheap will evaporate, as every club will identify the same players and the selling club will know the value of their asset. So I guess the question is where do we go when the world of transfers has become completely homogenised?
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Post by The Toxic Avenger on Aug 13, 2021 9:48:38 GMT
This pretty much sums up the modern approach to recruitment. It's virtually impossible to free yourself from unconscious (and conscious) biases, when relying solely on an often incomplete "eye test" to judge players. Vrancic has played over 17,000 minutes of tier two or above football since 2007/08. Assuming it is even available, it would take you 12 days at normal speed to just watch that footage, nearer 18 if you actually wanted to get some sleep. Data can do that in a couple of minutes. Then it can compare one player's output at the same age with anothers, then it can look at the output of the team he's played for to add context. It can compare the career arcs of similar players. Again in minutes. Data isn't tied to initial or recent evidence. It doesn't become invested in a single opinion & make irrational excuses for poorer than expected performances. There's nothing wrong with just watching a player's highlights clips, but projecting on that basis isn't evidence based assessment, it's just bants! I love reading this stuff, but I think it raises an obvious question. There's going to be an ever increasing pool of teams taking this approach. They will all be analysing the same data in the same way and, therefore, coming out with the same result. In other words, everybody will target the same players. I think we are already beginning to see that in our league, where it seems like every player who is available - Delap and the guy at Villa are two examples - have a queue of the same clubs lining up to take them on. Likewise, the idea of picking up a hidden gem on the cheap will evaporate, as every club will identify the same players and the selling club will know the value of their asset. So I guess the question is where do we go when the world of transfers has become completely homogenised? I'm guessing it won't quite work like that - not all teams play the same way, so in theory clubs will look at the specific data sets that suit their needs and the demands of their playing style best? Burnley, if they were using it for instance, aren't looking for the same attributes as Brighton. There's different markets too. Norwich's data led them to the Spanish second division where they found Buendia.
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Post by clarkeda on Aug 13, 2021 11:04:51 GMT
I love reading this stuff, but I think it raises an obvious question. There's going to be an ever increasing pool of teams taking this approach. They will all be analysing the same data in the same way and, therefore, coming out with the same result. In other words, everybody will target the same players. I think we are already beginning to see that in our league, where it seems like every player who is available - Delap and the guy at Villa are two examples - have a queue of the same clubs lining up to take them on. Likewise, the idea of picking up a hidden gem on the cheap will evaporate, as every club will identify the same players and the selling club will know the value of their asset. So I guess the question is where do we go when the world of transfers has become completely homogenised? I'm guessing it won't quite work like that - not all teams play the same way, so in theory clubs will look at the specific data sets that suit their needs and the demands of their playing style best? Burnley, if they were using it for instance, aren't looking for the same attributes as Brighton. There's different markets too. Norwich's data led them to the Spanish second division where they found Buendia. Coupled with prioritisation of position too along with specific leagues etc.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2021 11:09:37 GMT
I'm guessing it won't quite work like that - not all teams play the same way, so in theory clubs will look at the specific data sets that suit their needs and the demands of their playing style best? Burnley, if they were using it for instance, aren't looking for the same attributes as Brighton. There's different markets too. Norwich's data led them to the Spanish second division where they found Buendia. Coupled with prioritisation of position too along with specific leagues etc. As well as actual interest from a player in moving to a specific location. The stats themselves may stay the same (assuming that the analysis is all done centrally and then disseminated, not at an individual level); however, an individual’s interpretation of those stats lies in the quality of the statistician and their understanding of how that data actually applies to real world settings. I work as a bioinformaticist, I understand statistical models, but I couldn’t tell you a thing about how to best evaluate a player based on these kinds of metrics. That kind of understanding requires specific training and experience, which will be variable from person to person/club to club. Tachyon, did you ever cover the Afobe, Woods, McClean and Ince signings? Were good signs there for them, especially at the cost?
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Post by middleoftheboothen on Aug 13, 2021 12:39:51 GMT
I know exciting times it really is. Vrancic looks like being the difference between a promotion push and mid table mediocrity, let's hope he stays fit then fingers crossed.
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Post by tachyon on Aug 13, 2021 12:54:37 GMT
I love reading this stuff, but I think it raises an obvious question. There's going to be an ever increasing pool of teams taking this approach. They will all be analysing the same data in the same way and, therefore, coming out with the same result. In other words, everybody will target the same players. I think we are already beginning to see that in our league, where it seems like every player who is available - Delap and the guy at Villa are two examples - have a queue of the same clubs lining up to take them on. Likewise, the idea of picking up a hidden gem on the cheap will evaporate, as every club will identify the same players and the selling club will know the value of their asset. So I guess the question is where do we go when the world of transfers has become completely homogenised? Analytics used to be an open source community, now it's an in-house arms race. There's still a definite pecking order and edge. Ian G at Liverpool still >> than everyone else. The last pre Covid conference I went to had a 50% attendence from Championship teams. So it's not universally embraced. There's alot of generic stuff being re-cycled from 2010 and passed off as analytics. Rule one. It's all about the distribution (not the metric). Plenty of analysts haven't cottened onto that yet, so there's still a massive gulf between best and worst practice. We're not reaching parity any time soon :-).
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Post by tachyon on Aug 13, 2021 12:58:18 GMT
I'm guessing it won't quite work like that - not all teams play the same way, so in theory clubs will look at the specific data sets that suit their needs and the demands of their playing style best? Burnley, if they were using it for instance, aren't looking for the same attributes as Brighton. There's different markets too. Norwich's data led them to the Spanish second division where they found Buendia. RaviCheck out this neat introduction from Ravi at the Sounders. He's their head of analytics and he runs through how they use it in Seattle, although I think he missed oout the three months to build a decent database bit :-)
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Post by tachyon on Aug 13, 2021 13:32:45 GMT
Tachyon, did you ever cover the Afobe, Woods, McClean and Ince signings? Were good signs there for them, especially at the cost? Took a look at TI last year. He did ok in his first season. His xG per 90 was around 20% of Derby's as a team while he was there & his xG/90 in his first season at Stoke was around the same. Assists held up well. He did start shooting from further out, though. He overperformed his xG by 33% at Derby, (35 NP goals from 26.3 xG) which can happen for players who take pot-shots, but it isn't really sustainable and it wasn't at Stoke in his first year. Anyone who just looked at his actual goals per 90 at Derby & then Stoke would have been disappointed at the apparent decline, but an xG appraoch would have prepared you for the regession. Afobe played in a very, very good promoted team at Wolves before his move. He too over-performed his xG, but on a smaller sample size. He was a disappointment, although both players might reasonably suggest other parties were equally to blame for a lacklustre time at Stoke.
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