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Post by ravey123 on Dec 12, 2020 12:15:58 GMT
I've noticed a few extra murmurings and mentions about a 2nd Scottish Referendum for Independence if the UK leaves the EU with no deal.
Whilst not being an expert on the pro-s. and con's for Scotland if they left the Union whilst we are not in the EU how would the Scots deal with:
Currency - would Scotland be able to keep the pound or would they be forced to go with the Euro
Customs - how would goods (especially perishables) be transported to Scotland without going through England or Northern Ireland. and would they be subjected to tariffs
Border living - there must be many many people who live in Scotland but work in England and vice versa - how would it work for them
Barnet Formula - I assume this would be scrapped
Oil Revenue - would this all or a majority be kept by Scotland (assuming all or a majority of the oilfields are in Scottish waters)
Fishing - Would the EU have virtually unlimited access to Scottish waters but England, Wales and Northern Ireland not
Borders - how would the border between England and Scotland and the sea freight between England, Wales and Northern Ireland to Scotland operate.
Parliament - I assume all Scottish MP's would have to resign their seats at Westminster - also without Scotland would we end up with a massive Conservative majority in the house
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Post by followyoudown on Dec 12, 2020 12:52:24 GMT
I've noticed a few extra murmurings and mentions about a 2nd Scottish Referendum for Independence if the UK leaves the EU with no deal. Whilst not being an expert on the pro-s. and con's for Scotland if they left the Union whilst we are not in the EU how would the Scots deal with: Currency - would Scotland be able to keep the pound or would they be forced to go with the Euro Customs - how would goods (especially perishables) be transported to Scotland without going through England or Northern Ireland. and would they be subjected to tariffs Border living - there must be many many people who live in Scotland but work in England and vice versa - how would it work for them Barnet Formula - I assume this would be scrapped Oil Revenue - would this all or a majority be kept by Scotland (assuming all or a majority of the oilfields are in Scottish waters) Fishing - Would the EU have virtually unlimited access to Scottish waters but England, Wales and Northern Ireland not Borders - how would the border between England and Scotland and the sea freight between England, Wales and Northern Ireland to Scotland operate. Parliament - I assume all Scottish MP's would have to resign their seats at Westminster - also without Scotland would we end up with a massive Conservative majority in the house The SNP can find a grievence in the result of the Stoke v Derby game to strengthen the case for independence. Andrew Neil is worth following on this, currency is particularly problematic if they dont have their own currency can't join the EU, if they go for some sort of scottish pound then that causes problems as people will likely have to pay mortgages in a foreign currency then there is the issue of borrowing to meet the current deficit around £15 billion a year in a currency with little backing. Like brexit though I think the issue is past economics for most voters it seems.
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Post by longdistancekiddie on Dec 12, 2020 13:08:15 GMT
I've noticed a few extra murmurings and mentions about a 2nd Scottish Referendum for Independence if the UK leaves the EU with no deal. Whilst not being an expert on the pro-s. and con's for Scotland if they left the Union whilst we are not in the EU how would the Scots deal with: Currency - would Scotland be able to keep the pound or would they be forced to go with the Euro Customs - how would goods (especially perishables) be transported to Scotland without going through England or Northern Ireland. and would they be subjected to tariffs Border living - there must be many many people who live in Scotland but work in England and vice versa - how would it work for them Barnet Formula - I assume this would be scrapped Oil Revenue - would this all or a majority be kept by Scotland (assuming all or a majority of the oilfields are in Scottish waters) Fishing - Would the EU have virtually unlimited access to Scottish waters but England, Wales and Northern Ireland not Borders - how would the border between England and Scotland and the sea freight between England, Wales and Northern Ireland to Scotland operate. Parliament - I assume all Scottish MP's would have to resign their seats at Westminster - also without Scotland would we end up with a massive Conservative majority in the house They could just do what the other countries in the land mass of the continent of Europe do
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Post by xchpotter on Dec 12, 2020 13:31:13 GMT
I imagine it will be trouble free and Nicola will get everything she said she will get, so should be a historic moment for Scotland.
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Post by ravey123 on Dec 12, 2020 17:50:44 GMT
I've noticed a few extra murmurings and mentions about a 2nd Scottish Referendum for Independence if the UK leaves the EU with no deal. Whilst not being an expert on the pro-s. and con's for Scotland if they left the Union whilst we are not in the EU how would the Scots deal with: Currency - would Scotland be able to keep the pound or would they be forced to go with the Euro Customs - how would goods (especially perishables) be transported to Scotland without going through England or Northern Ireland. and would they be subjected to tariffs Border living - there must be many many people who live in Scotland but work in England and vice versa - how would it work for them Barnet Formula - I assume this would be scrapped Oil Revenue - would this all or a majority be kept by Scotland (assuming all or a majority of the oilfields are in Scottish waters) Fishing - Would the EU have virtually unlimited access to Scottish waters but England, Wales and Northern Ireland not Borders - how would the border between England and Scotland and the sea freight between England, Wales and Northern Ireland to Scotland operate. Parliament - I assume all Scottish MP's would have to resign their seats at Westminster - also without Scotland would we end up with a massive Conservative majority in the house They could just do what the other countries in the land mass of the continent of Europe do And what is that?
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Post by crapslinger on Dec 12, 2020 18:12:31 GMT
I imagine it will be trouble free and Nicola will get everything she said she will get, so should be a historic moment for Scotland. Assuming the Scots vote for it, I take it the Scottish will be funding the cost of their 2nd referendum, if they do vote for independence good for them let's hope we give them a trade deal, all subsidies from Westminster to stop as part of the deal though, I assume that they will be hoping the EU accept them in and the price will be the euro as their currency
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Post by longdistancekiddie on Dec 12, 2020 21:43:29 GMT
They could just do what the other countries in the land mass of the continent of Europe do And what is that? Be a independent country They don't need England
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Post by crapslinger on Dec 12, 2020 22:33:50 GMT
Be a independent country They don't need England They won't be independent if the EU accept them if not they will be independent and absolutely fucked not overly bright are you kiddie.
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Post by longdistancekiddie on Dec 12, 2020 22:35:04 GMT
Be a independent country They don't need England They won't be independent if the EU accept them if not they will be independent and absolutely fucked not overly bright are you kiddie. Of course they can be independent. You thick SCAB
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Post by crapslinger on Dec 12, 2020 22:53:19 GMT
They won't be independent if the EU accept them if not they will be independent and absolutely fucked not overly bright are you kiddie. Of course they can be independent. You thick SCAB They can I have already stated that Einstein! they can be truly independent and absolutely fucked or dependent on the EU to make up the shortfall from leaving the union, I bet Brussels are licking their lips at the thought of another non contributor joining their ranks the choice is theirs and frankly who cares you silly boy, thick scab last scab I saw was on my knee.
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Post by longdistancekiddie on Dec 12, 2020 23:55:29 GMT
Of course they can be independent. You thick SCAB They can I have already stated that Einstein! they can be truly independent and absolutely fucked or dependent on the EU to make up the shortfall from leaving the union, I bet Brussels are licking their lips at the thought of another non contributor joining their ranks the choice is theirs and frankly who cares you silly boy, thick scab last scab I saw was on my knee. Why would they be fucked, they don't need England. They could try to join the EU. And if you don't care why are you crying about it. You are always carping on about England being a independent sovereign state but you don't want Scotland to be that,???. Pissed on the cheap stuff again are you? , Do one Scab, 😂🤣 .
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Post by desman2 on Dec 13, 2020 1:29:19 GMT
Wonder if it would cause another Northern Ireland situation.
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Post by lordb on Dec 13, 2020 10:41:50 GMT
Wonder if it would cause another Northern Ireland situation. No, why would it?
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Post by Clem Fandango on Dec 13, 2020 11:09:47 GMT
I've noticed a few extra murmurings and mentions about a 2nd Scottish Referendum for Independence if the UK leaves the EU with no deal. Whilst not being an expert on the pro-s. and con's for Scotland if they left the Union whilst we are not in the EU how would the Scots deal with: Currency - would Scotland be able to keep the pound or would they be forced to go with the Euro Customs - how would goods (especially perishables) be transported to Scotland without going through England or Northern Ireland. and would they be subjected to tariffs Border living - there must be many many people who live in Scotland but work in England and vice versa - how would it work for them Barnet Formula - I assume this would be scrapped Oil Revenue - would this all or a majority be kept by Scotland (assuming all or a majority of the oilfields are in Scottish waters) Fishing - Would the EU have virtually unlimited access to Scottish waters but England, Wales and Northern Ireland not Borders - how would the border between England and Scotland and the sea freight between England, Wales and Northern Ireland to Scotland operate. Parliament - I assume all Scottish MP's would have to resign their seats at Westminster - also without Scotland would we end up with a massive Conservative majority in the house Defence is another big one. I read a few articles on this last time around. The SNP seemed to think they would be automatically entitled to a share of the current defence hardware and personal. This might be true however it would leave them with a lot of equipment which they wouldn't be able to maintain (due to funding) or really require such as the submarines. The MOD spends a large amount of money maintaining facilities in Scotland which would they would close/ handover with the capability moved south. Classic example is the base at Faslane which would see the submarine force moved south of the border and the RAF base at Lossiemouth which QRA and the new sub hunters moved to somewhere in the NE. Shipbuilding for new navy warships is usually done with in the UK rather than in foreign yards so that would also mean the yards supporting the carriers and the building of the type 26 frigate (and potentially the new T32) would lose out as the work moves south. An interesting point was raised around personnel as the current eligible personnel who could transfer to a new scottish defence force might not necessarily wish to do this as their overseas deployment options and long term career prospects could be damaged.
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Post by chiswickpotter on Dec 13, 2020 11:14:13 GMT
Of course they can be independent. You thick SCAB They can I have already stated that Einstein! they can be truly independent and absolutely fucked or dependent on the EU to make up the shortfall from leaving the union, I bet Brussels are licking their lips at the thought of another non contributor joining their ranks the choice is theirs and frankly who cares you silly boy, thick scab last scab I saw was on my knee. I would expect EU businesses would love it. A base on the mainland inside the EU but next to the English market would be a perfect location for assembly plants, HQs and research facilities. Scottish economy would be on fire from inward investment flows and high earners relocating
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Post by crapslinger on Dec 13, 2020 11:20:54 GMT
They can I have already stated that Einstein! they can be truly independent and absolutely fucked or dependent on the EU to make up the shortfall from leaving the union, I bet Brussels are licking their lips at the thought of another non contributor joining their ranks the choice is theirs and frankly who cares you silly boy, thick scab last scab I saw was on my knee. I would expect EU businesses would love it. A base on the mainland inside the EU but next to the English market would be a perfect location for assembly plants, HQs and research facilities. Scottish economy would be on fire from inward investment flows and high earners relocating We will see how this pans out, I would imagine there would need to be a hard border and tariffs on goods coming out of Scotland into England.
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Post by crapslinger on Dec 13, 2020 11:24:02 GMT
They can I have already stated that Einstein! they can be truly independent and absolutely fucked or dependent on the EU to make up the shortfall from leaving the union, I bet Brussels are licking their lips at the thought of another non contributor joining their ranks the choice is theirs and frankly who cares you silly boy, thick scab last scab I saw was on my knee. Why would they be fucked, they don't need England. They could try to join the EU. And if you don't care why are you crying about it. You are always carping on about England being a independent sovereign state but you don't want Scotland to be that,???. Pissed on the cheap stuff again are you? , Do one Scab, 😂🤣 . And you needed to edit that
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Post by franklin on Dec 13, 2020 11:54:32 GMT
Its a tough one first off they can ask to keep the pound but if they were given permission to carry on they would have to abide by the bank if England interest rates so their currency is dependant on "us" North Sea oil has been massively overstated and the income will decrease rather than increase. Military issues are massive they would be left exposed with little protection and with assets they are unable to use and possibly maintain. There is no fast tract into the EU and its already been stated its not an easy option. They would have to have a hard boarder with the rest of the UK until some deal could be done and would be subject to tariffs. They have many practical issues to overcome to reach their ideological goal and im not sure the people of Scotland would want the risk once the full extent of the breakup is given.
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Post by raythesailor on Dec 13, 2020 12:19:28 GMT
I think Scotland would miss the UK far more than the UK would miss Scotland.
Don’t fully understand why they would want to. With devolution they can have their cake and eat it. They are virtually self governing and are certainly retaining their National identity.
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Post by thevoid on Dec 13, 2020 15:09:18 GMT
Its a tough one first off they can ask to keep the pound but if they were given permission to carry on they would have to abide by the bank if England interest rates so their currency is dependant on "us" North Sea oil has been massively overstated and the income will decrease rather than increase. Military issues are massive they would be left exposed with little protection and with assets they are unable to use and possibly maintain. There is no fast tract into the EU and its already been stated its not an easy option. They would have to have a hard boarder with the rest of the UK until some deal could be done and would be subject to tariffs. They have many practical issues to overcome to reach their ideological goal and im not sure the people of Scotland would want the risk once the full extent of the breakup is given. As I keep seeing on the Brexit thread, would they be 'completely sovereign' if they were tied to the Bank of England and it's fluctuations?
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Post by tuum on Dec 13, 2020 15:09:35 GMT
Didn't the Tories in Westminster make a load of promises to Scotland during the Scottish referendum? How many of them were kept post-referendum? Add Brexit into the mix and you can see why the Jocks are up for independence. None of my Jock friends are pro independence but I live and work in an expat bubble so they are not necessarily representative of the rank and file Scot. However, they tell me that there is a significant number of ordinary working class who don't favour independence but they just don't bang on about it. A lot of ordinary people in Scotland are not enamoured with the SNP. Westminster is within its right to refuse another referendum but the SNP may see this as the time when the Union is most vulnerable. Perhaps the best option for all is to wait another 5 years or so to see how Brexit pans out.
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Post by Linx on Dec 13, 2020 15:11:34 GMT
The notion of independence for Scots has always traditionally been split on generational, class and educational grounds. When I visited friends of my then girlfriend in Scotland, back in the late 1980s, they were all graduate young professionals, and absolutely passionate about Scottish independence. It seemed that the more middle class and better educated you were, the more you supported Scottish independence. Nicola Sturgeon is a product of this milieu. They didn’t hate the English, as such, but hated an aggressive kind of English nationalism (with particular loathing for ‘Engerlund’ football fans). They had me taped as one of these, based solely on the fact that I was English, even though I’d been to London about twice in my life and had lived my whole life in the less glamorous parts of the North Midlands. Without asking for it, I was debating Scottish independence all the time, as some sort of unwillingly co-opted representative of their perception of England.
Apparently, the demographic of the last independence referendum swung towards remain based on the vote of the over-65s and the non-graduate vote, kind of Brexit in reverse! But Brexit has turned this tanker around; I strongly suspect that there is majority support for independence now.
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Post by Clem Fandango on Dec 13, 2020 15:23:04 GMT
It would be nice and some lessons of brexit are learned and that would be that if Scotland wants another vote then some work should be done on what that deal would look like with all of the items mentioned earlier in this thread settled. The biggest issue for me with Brexit is that people don't really fully know what they are voting for they just listen to a pack of lies with promises of unicorns and rainbows by politicians on both sides of an argument.
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Post by franklin on Dec 13, 2020 16:14:13 GMT
Its a tough one first off they can ask to keep the pound but if they were given permission to carry on they would have to abide by the bank if England interest rates so their currency is dependant on "us" North Sea oil has been massively overstated and the income will decrease rather than increase. Military issues are massive they would be left exposed with little protection and with assets they are unable to use and possibly maintain. There is no fast tract into the EU and its already been stated its not an easy option. They would have to have a hard boarder with the rest of the UK until some deal could be done and would be subject to tariffs. They have many practical issues to overcome to reach their ideological goal and im not sure the people of Scotland would want the risk once the full extent of the breakup is given. As I keep seeing on the Brexit thread, would they be 'completely sovereign' if they were tied to the Bank of England and it's fluctuations? They seem quite keen to keep the pound and everything they say says they want it not the euro. However all the talk from the EU is that they can apply for membership but they would insist on the euro. So there's one reason I don't understand the SNP stance on. Im not a Scot so I really don't understand why some want to leave i can't see any benefits in doing so
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Post by Clayton Wood on Dec 13, 2020 16:17:40 GMT
At Indyref1 Salmond said with Brent crude at $100 a barrel they would have a self sustaining economy. It traded at around $110 a barrel in early 2014 in the lead up the the ref. then halved to $55 by 31.12.14. Currently $49 a barrel, and the highest since 2014 was $84 a barrel. With the long term to switch to carbon neutral economies, it'll only go one way. That's before the long term Covid effect, good luck to em.
Missed the boat or dodge a bullet last time depending on which way you look at it.
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Post by cerebralstokie on Dec 13, 2020 16:25:49 GMT
Currency would be a big issue. If they kept the pound then the Bank of England would set interest rates and the Scots would have no control over this. Another irony is that, because we are in the E.U. the U.S. has set massive tariffs on imports of Scotch whisky, damaging one of their main exports. It will be interesting to see if these tariffs are lifted when we are out of the E.U. I can understand why many Scots want Independence but they would need to think very carefully about the consequences of doing so. Their economy would be fairly week as an independent nation.
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Post by ravey123 on Dec 13, 2020 16:26:10 GMT
At Indyref1 Salmond said with Brent crude at $100 a barrel they would have a self sustaining economy. It traded at around $110 a barrel in early 2014 in the lead up the the ref. then halved to $55 by 31.12.14. Currently $49 a barrel, and the highest since 2014 was $84 a barrel. With the long term to switch to carbon neutral economies, it'll only go one way. That's before the long term Covid effect, good luck to em. Missed the boat or dodge a bullet last time depending on which way you look at it. Isn't the oil that comes out of the North Sea not petroleum oil though - isn't it more refined and used as higher value lubricants etc - could be wrong though but this is what I understood to be the case.
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Post by Clayton Wood on Dec 13, 2020 16:56:22 GMT
At Indyref1 Salmond said with Brent crude at $100 a barrel they would have a self sustaining economy. It traded at around $110 a barrel in early 2014 in the lead up the the ref. then halved to $55 by 31.12.14. Currently $49 a barrel, and the highest since 2014 was $84 a barrel. With the long term to switch to carbon neutral economies, it'll only go one way. That's before the long term Covid effect, good luck to em. Missed the boat or dodge a bullet last time depending on which way you look at it. Isn't the oil that comes out of the North Sea not petroleum oil though - isn't it more refined and used as higher value lubricants etc - could be wrong though but this is what I understood to be the case. Yes it's a light crude oil (LCO) and can be used for petrol or lighter fuels such as kerosene (Aviation fuel). Add that into the mix and they are well and truly economically fucked* If they are really serious about going it alone then open the vote up to the whole country and let the English have a say *Technical macro-economic term...
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MooG
Youth Player
Only the wisest and stupidest of men never change.
Posts: 492
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Post by MooG on Dec 13, 2020 18:00:22 GMT
like followyoudown I think that to the SNP anything is a reason for Scottish Independence.
"look what England are forcing us to do against our will" does have the potential problem that, for consistency, any region that doesn't vote for independence in any referendum should stay in the union. I'm sure though that they will be expected to respect the wishes of the majority and look forward to the SNP explaining how this is completely different to the Brexit situation.
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Post by wagsastokie on Dec 13, 2020 18:24:47 GMT
Isn't the oil that comes out of the North Sea not petroleum oil though - isn't it more refined and used as higher value lubricants etc - could be wrong though but this is what I understood to be the case. Yes it's a light crude oil (LCO) and can be used for petrol or lighter fuels such as kerosene (Aviation fuel). Add that into the mix and they are well and truly economically fucked* If they are really serious about going it alone then open the vote up to the whole country and let the English have a say *Technical macro-economic term... I’m sure in the invent of a Scottish leave vote the orkneys and shetlands have already stated they would wish to become independent crown dependencies And take most of Scotland’s oil with them So maybe the clever thing to do would to say to little jimmy krankie Yes you can have your referendum vote on the conditions you accept the vote of the northern islands to split from the mainland
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