|
|
Post by spitthedog on Oct 17, 2020 23:56:16 GMT
So far in the Championship this season 32% of games have resulted in Home wins (59 games)
On average over the 20 previous seasons (excluding last season) the average is 44%
That's quite a difference.
There are lots of theories about home advantage but this bolsters theories based around the role of the home crowd.
|
|
|
|
Post by walrus on Oct 18, 2020 7:12:49 GMT
During the part of last season that was played behind closed doors there were 35 home wins and 39 away wins.
It’s definitely much easier to get a result on the road without fans present.
It rather diminishes the conversation about how good our away form has been of late.
|
|
|
|
Post by walton corner on Oct 18, 2020 13:00:00 GMT
8 out of 12 championship fixtures all away wins ....makes no difference playing home or away ...
|
|
|
|
Post by spitthedog on Oct 18, 2020 13:44:05 GMT
8 out of 12 championship fixtures all away wins ....makes no difference playing home or away ... In one sense yes, but I wonder if that is entirely true. It's interesting that MON talks a lot about home and away form, and the way he sets the team up for each in his interviews. He obviously still thinks it's relevant. I think home teams are feeling the pressure of playing at home without the usual support. Maybe they have to adapt moreso and are struggling because of the need to change their approach. I think Sheffield United are a very good example. Ive been to Bramall Lane a couple of times before Covid and it reminded of Stoke in the early years of the Prem. |
|
|
|
Post by J-Roar on Oct 18, 2020 14:08:07 GMT
So far in the Championship this season 32% of games have resulted in Home wins (59 games) On average over the 20 previous seasons (excluding last season) the average is 44% That's quite a difference. There are lots of theories about home advantage but this bolsters theories based around the role of the home crowd. Referees subconsciously affected by the crowd is my theory. Shows how important we are as supporters. |
|
|
|
Post by mtrstudent on Oct 18, 2020 17:06:06 GMT
So far in the Championship this season 32% of games have resulted in Home wins (59 games) On average over the 20 previous seasons (excluding last season) the average is 44% That's quite a difference. There are lots of theories about home advantage but this bolsters theories based around the role of the home crowd. You mean there have been 59 home games and 19 home wins? Sorry about this, but nerd time: by the tiniest whisker, that is not a statistically significant change, still a good chance that this is a fluke. If we get the same ratio over the next 20 home games then it'll be significant. Or if you added in the other leagues and they show the same thing that would do it. I think you're probably right, and that way we all helped build Bear Pit Britannia and each of us who turned up was worth a tiny sliver of a point. |
|
|
|
Post by musik on Oct 18, 2020 17:12:32 GMT
So far in the Championship this season 32% of games have resulted in Home wins (59 games) On average over the 20 previous seasons (excluding last season) the average is 44% That's quite a difference. There are lots of theories about home advantage but this bolsters theories based around the role of the home crowd. Correct!👍 And that's why we have good results away so far. |
|
|
|
Post by SamB_SCFC on Oct 18, 2020 22:02:15 GMT
It certainly shows the role that home crowds play. The psychological encouragement to attack more and the players feeling the expectation from the stands encourages home teams to attack more I think which increases the chances of winning the game. And I think home crowds also have a negative effect on the away team too. The most dramatic example of that was Man City at home when we went down to 10 men and still won. The Man City players visibly wilted under the deafening roar and constant jeers from our fans whenever they had the ball. Shaun Wright-Phillips had to be substituted for his own mental health.
Without the psychological impact that home crowds have it's definitely weakening home advantage.
|
|
|
|
Post by robinplumpton on Oct 18, 2020 22:07:05 GMT
It certainly shows the role that home crowds play. The psychological encouragement to attack more and the players feeling the expectation from the stands encourages home teams to attack more I think which increases the chances of winning the game. And I think home crowds also have a negative effect on the away team too. The most dramatic example of that was Man City at home when we went down to 10 men and still won. The Man City players visibly wilted under the deafening roar and constant jeers from our fans whenever they had the ball. Shaun Wright-Phillips had to be substituted for his own mental health. Without the psychological impact that home crowds have it's definitely weakening home advantage. The Bear Pit. Sooo proud that day, hopefully again some day soon |
|
|
|
Post by Gods on Oct 18, 2020 22:13:51 GMT
It certainly shows the role that home crowds play. The psychological encouragement to attack more and the players feeling the expectation from the stands encourages home teams to attack more I think which increases the chances of winning the game. And I think home crowds also have a negative effect on the away team too. The most dramatic example of that was Man City at home when we went down to 10 men and still won. The Man City players visibly wilted under the deafening roar and constant jeers from our fans whenever they had the ball. Shaun Wright-Phillips had to be substituted for his own mental health. Without the psychological impact that home crowds have it's definitely weakening home advantage. And the ability of the crowd to subliminally influence the match officials on borderline decisions. |
|
|
|
Post by markby on Oct 19, 2020 11:07:03 GMT
It certainly shows the role that home crowds play. The psychological encouragement to attack more and the players feeling the expectation from the stands encourages home teams to attack more I think which increases the chances of winning the game. And I think home crowds also have a negative effect on the away team too. The most dramatic example of that was Man City at home when we went down to 10 men and still won. The Man City players visibly wilted under the deafening roar and constant jeers from our fans whenever they had the ball. Shaun Wright-Phillips had to be substituted for his own mental health. Without the psychological impact that home crowds have it's definitely weakening home advantage. Re your bold, I can't find it now, but I saw a stat the other day which showed that the ratio of penalties given to the away team has increased noticeably, as compared with pre-covid.
Now part of that may be because with home advantage generally being less important than before, home teams are dominating games less and so spending less time in the opposition's penalty areas, hence fewer penalties for them. (Also in the Prem, VAR may be evening things out).
Nonetheless, there must be less pressure on refs to favour the home team.
|
|
|
|
Post by AlbertTatlock on Oct 19, 2020 12:42:16 GMT
73.6% of all statistics are made up. Gouranga.  |
|
|
|
Post by PotterLog on Oct 19, 2020 13:43:37 GMT
Ok chips-pissing time. I read a huge statistical review of the home advantage phenomenon a few years ago in one of the glossy sports supplements. It covered different eras, different sports, with crowds, without crowds, record on neutral grounds, games where away fans outnumbered home fans, everything, over several years or even decades. There was a whole host of findings but one core conclusion was that crowds made absolutely no difference to the % of home results. Home advantage is much more prosaically explained by just being in familiar surroundings, having a routine, knowing the facilities and the pitch etc - as well as possibly just a tendency to play differently when at home.
The Covid records are interesting and warrant further attention but as someone mentioned above, it's a long way from proving the role of home crowds just yet. Results just could be a bit freaky because of a blip, or the disruption, changes to preparation or whatever that Covid has implied.
|
|
|
|
Post by tachyon on Oct 19, 2020 18:52:28 GMT
Ok chips-pissing time. I read a huge statistical review of the home advantage phenomenon a few years ago in one of the glossy sports supplements. It covered different eras, different sports, with crowds, without crowds, record on neutral grounds, games where away fans outnumbered home fans, everything, over several years or even decades. There was a whole host of findings but one core conclusion was that crowds made absolutely no difference to the % of home results. Home advantage is much more prosaically explained by just being in familiar surroundings, having a routine, knowing the facilities and the pitch etc - as well as possibly just a tendency to play differently when at home. The Covid records are interesting and warrant further attention but as someone mentioned above, it's a long way from proving the role of home crowds just yet. Results just could be a bit freaky because of a blip, or the disruption, changes to preparation or whatever that Covid has implied. Cool points. Shared stadia derbies, which control for familiarity, but not the share of the crowd, has next to no "home" field advantage. Age limited PL games have negligible crowds but large home field advantage. So you could conclude that crowds may be a factor amongst many that contribute to HFA, but it is a relatively minor one. HFA has been in constant decline for decades & there's been runs of 59 Championship games where as few as 12 home wins resulted. Since 2004 around 3% of 59 game sequences have had 19 or fewer home wins, but it's been closer to 5% over the last five seasons. The effect crowds have on results is hugely overrated. |
|
|
|
Post by spitthedog on Oct 19, 2020 20:07:25 GMT
Ok chips-pissing time. I read a huge statistical review of the home advantage phenomenon a few years ago in one of the glossy sports supplements. It covered different eras, different sports, with crowds, without crowds, record on neutral grounds, games where away fans outnumbered home fans, everything, over several years or even decades. There was a whole host of findings but one core conclusion was that crowds made absolutely no difference to the % of home results. Home advantage is much more prosaically explained by just being in familiar surroundings, having a routine, knowing the facilities and the pitch etc - as well as possibly just a tendency to play differently when at home. The Covid records are interesting and warrant further attention but as someone mentioned above, it's a long way from proving the role of home crowds just yet. Results just could be a bit freaky because of a blip, or the disruption, changes to preparation or whatever that Covid has implied. Cool points. Shared stadia derbies, which control for familiarity, but not the share of the crowd, has next to no "home" field advantage. Age limited PL games have negligible crowds but large home field advantage. So you could conclude that crowds may be a factor amongst many that contribute to HFA, but it is a relatively minor one. HFA has been in constant decline for decades & there's been runs of 59 Championship games where as few as 12 home wins resulted. Since 2004 around 3% of 59 game sequences have had 19 or fewer home wins, but it's been closer to 5% over the last five seasons. The effect crowds have on results is hugely overrated. Is actually impossible to prove either way, so it's conjecture. One reason is because it's impossible to separate the factors that might contribute to changes in result. Another reason for that is that it probably varies depending on the team. For example, I think the lack of home crowd support is having a negative impact on Sheffield United having been to their performances. Especially having been to a couple of games there. The crowd are really in the player's faces. My opinion is that it does effect results and refs being influenced is part of the home crowd advantage (again possibly not at all grounds, or at least to different proportions) |
|
sifta
Youth Player
Posts: 449
|
Post by sifta on Oct 20, 2020 14:43:40 GMT
Statistically irrelevant, but slightly pertinent, and quite interesting is a comment I heard Thierry Henry make in an interview. He claimed that he preferred playing at home (Especially Highbury which was a tight ground), because he became familiar with the ground over the years, and always knew where he was on the pitch relative to the goal, no matter which way he was facing. He gave the goal he scored agains Man U where he chested, turned and volleyed the ball from outside the area as a prime example.
|
|
|
|
Post by sd22 on Oct 20, 2020 14:50:02 GMT
Statistically irrelevant, but slightly pertinent, and quite interesting is a comment I heard Thierry Henry make in an interview. He claimed that he preferred playing at home (Especially Highbury which was a tight ground), because he became familiar with the ground over the years, and always knew where he was on the pitch relative to the goal, no matter which way he was facing. He gave the goal he scored agains Man U where he chested, turned and volleyed the ball from outside the area as a prime example. You’d think with most pitches being the same size they’d all be the same. However as with other sports I have done, things may be the same size, but nothing is quite as familiar as home/your own gear. |
|
sifta
Youth Player
Posts: 449
|
Post by sifta on Oct 20, 2020 14:58:21 GMT
Statistically irrelevant, but slightly pertinent, and quite interesting is a comment I heard Thierry Henry make in an interview. He claimed that he preferred playing at home (Especially Highbury which was a tight ground), because he became familiar with the ground over the years, and always knew where he was on the pitch relative to the goal, no matter which way he was facing. He gave the goal he scored agains Man U where he chested, turned and volleyed the ball from outside the area as a prime example. You’d think with most pitches being the same size they’d all be the same. However as with other sports I have done, things may be the same size, but nothing is quite as familiar as home/your own gear.
I think it was more a case that with the stands being so close to the pitch, he could judge from them, rather than the markings, or the pitch size.
|
|
|
|
Post by sd22 on Oct 20, 2020 15:41:03 GMT
You’d think with most pitches being the same size they’d all be the same. However as with other sports I have done, things may be the same size, but nothing is quite as familiar as home/your own gear.
I think it was more a case that with the stands being so close to the pitch, he could judge from them, rather than the markings, or the pitch size.
More than likely, that’s how I used to judge some cage parameters In familiar gyms. Sometimes certain advertising hoardings I would assume would let them know where they are when the space around them just looks ‘green’ |
|
|
|
Post by spitthedog on Oct 20, 2020 15:57:36 GMT
I don't believe we would have stayed in the Prem for 10 years without the crowd at the Brit (as I still call it!). That is my own feeling and I cannot prove it!
|
|
|
|
Post by J-Roar on Oct 20, 2020 17:02:43 GMT
I don't believe we would have stayed in the Prem for 10 years without the crowd at the Brit (as I still call it!). That is my own feeling and I cannot prove it! The wind tunnel also helped! Caught out a fair few opposition defenders. |
|
