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Post by bolders on Jul 8, 2020 20:13:54 GMT
i think Wigan will win most of theirs
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Post by malisastokie on Jul 8, 2020 22:31:54 GMT
50 might not be enough, we would be relying on goal difference assuming Wigan don't get points deducted.
Birmingham are now right in the mix and game you would of penciled in ad a 3 point opportunity could turn into a nil all dog fight, because they only need a couple of draws to stay up.
A win and 2 draws is what is required.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 8, 2020 22:35:17 GMT
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Post by Veritas on Jul 9, 2020 8:47:27 GMT
Wigan will get points deducted, 4 points needed.
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Post by spiderpuss on Jul 9, 2020 8:54:05 GMT
Wigan will get points deducted, 4 points needed. My expectation is that they will also be forced to accept the points deduction. However I also expect them to win their 3 games against bottom 11 opposition. That puts them on 62 - which means a final total of 50. We must at least win one of our last 4 games and a draw, and that is an absolute minimum. There's also a fairness aspect to this. Wigan have been treated appallingly and it would kinda not sit right that we stayed up at their expense. We should make damned sure that our results speak for themselves and start playing much better consistent football. A 4-0 Barnsley drubbing is very nice, but counts for very little if we can't move that form forward to Leeds and Brum. |
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Post by davers66 on Jul 9, 2020 11:11:28 GMT
Everything below QPR and including Wigan due to pending points deduction.
RED = lost AMBER = Drawn GREEN = Won
Stoke: 46 pts
Wigan Athletic A
Barnsley H
Leeds United A
Birmingham City H
Bristol City A
Brentford H
Nottingham Forest A
GD: -7
| Charlton: 46 pts
Cardiff City A
Millwall H
Brentford A
Reading H
Birmingham City A
Wigan Athletic H
Leeds United A
GD: -10
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Middlesbrough: 47pts
Hull City A
Queens Park Rangers H
Millwall A
Bristol City H
Reading A
Cardiff City H
Sheffield Wednesday A
GD: -11
| Hull City: 45 pts
Middlesbrough H
West Bromwich Albion A
Bristol City A
Millwall H
Wigan Athletic A
Luton Town H
Cardiff City A
GD: -17
| Huddersfield: 47 pts
Nottingham Forest A
Birmingham City A
Preston North End H
Reading A
Luton Town H
Sheffield Wednesday A
West Bromwich Albion H
Millwall A
GD: -14
| Luton Town: 41 pts
Leeds United A
Reading H
Barnsley H
Huddersfield A
Queens Park Rangers H
Hull City A
Blackburn Rovers H
GD: -32
| Barnsley: 42 pts
Blackburn Rovers H
Stoke City A
Luton Town A
Wigan Athletic H
Leeds United A
Nottingham Forest H
Brentford A
GD: -21
| Wigan Athletic: 41 pts*
Stoke City H
Brentford A
Queens Park Rangers H
Barnsley A
Hull City H
Charlton A
Fulham H
* Subject to league rulings
GD: -7
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Birmingham: 49 pts
Stoke City A
Charlton Athletic H
Preston North End A
Derby County H
GD: -15
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Looking at that lot I'd say there's very little in it, what I see is Luton have to play some very out of form teams and could well pull off a miracle. Barnsley look to have a horror final 4 games and I'd not want to swap that. Before today I'd also say that Hull would not got another point, but those sort of predictions seem wide of the mark. Updated following today's outcome(s)
Adding Chrispk match summary (updated): Wigan have 3 v bottom 11 Charlton have 3 v bottom 11
Luton have 3 games v bottom 11 Huddersfield 2 v bottom 11
Middlesborough 2 v bottom 11
Barnsley have 2 v bottom 11
Hull have 2 v bottom 11
Stoke have 2 v bottom 11
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Post by Deleted on Jul 9, 2020 11:24:36 GMT
Wigan will get points deducted, 4 points needed. My expectation is that they will also be forced to accept the points deduction. However I also expect them to win their 3 games against bottom 11 opposition. That puts them on 62 - which means a final total of 50. We must at least win one of our last 4 games and a draw, and that is an absolute minimum. There's also a fairness aspect to this. Wigan have been treated appallingly and it would kinda not sit right that we stayed up at their expense. We should make damned sure that our results speak for themselves and start playing much better consistent football. A 4-0 Barnsley drubbing is very nice, but counts for very little if we can't move that form forward to Leeds and Brum. I agree but teams going into admin have to be made an example of after what happened at say Leicester. I think Wigan have enough to stay up and in our own hands to do what's necessary. Never though at Xmas we'd survive despite the amount of games left as we were losing for fun. |
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Post by davers66 on Jul 9, 2020 11:27:22 GMT
Everything below QPR and including Wigan due to pending points deduction.
RED = lost AMBER = Drawn GREEN = Won
Stoke: 46 pts
Wigan Athletic A
Barnsley H
Leeds United A
Birmingham City H
Bristol City A
Brentford H
Nottingham Forest A
GD: -7
| Charlton: 46 pts
Cardiff City A
Millwall H
Brentford A
Reading H
Birmingham City A
Wigan Athletic H
Leeds United A
GD: -10
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Middlesbrough: 47pts
Hull City A
Queens Park Rangers H
Millwall A
Bristol City H
Reading A
Cardiff City H
Sheffield Wednesday A
GD: -11
| Hull City: 45 pts
Middlesbrough H
West Bromwich Albion A
Bristol City A
Millwall H
Wigan Athletic A
Luton Town H
Cardiff City A
GD: -17
| Huddersfield: 47 pts
Nottingham Forest A
Birmingham City A
Preston North End H
Reading A
Luton Town H
Sheffield Wednesday A
West Bromwich Albion H
Millwall A
GD: -14
| Luton Town: 41 pts
Leeds United A
Reading H
Barnsley H
Huddersfield A
Queens Park Rangers H
Hull City A
Blackburn Rovers H
GD: -32
| Barnsley: 42 pts
Blackburn Rovers H
Stoke City A
Luton Town A
Wigan Athletic H
Leeds United A
Nottingham Forest H
Brentford A
GD: -21
| Wigan Athletic: 41 pts*
Stoke City H
Brentford A
Queens Park Rangers H
Barnsley A
Hull City H
Charlton A
Fulham H
* Subject to league rulings
GD: -7
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Birmingham: 49 pts
Stoke City A
Charlton Athletic H
Preston North End A
Derby County H
GD: -15
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Looking at that lot I'd say there's very little in it, what I see is Luton have to play some very out of form teams and could well pull off a miracle. Barnsley look to have a horror final 4 games and I'd not want to swap that. Before today I'd also say that Hull would not got another point, but those sort of predictions seem wide of the mark. Updated following today's outcome(s)
Adding Chrispk match summary (updated): Wigan have 3 v bottom 11 Charlton have 3 v bottom 11
Luton have 3 games v bottom 11 Huddersfield 2 v bottom 11
Middlesborough 2 v bottom 11
Barnsley have 2 v bottom 11
Hull have 2 v bottom 11
Stoke have 2 v bottom 11
I genuinely think we only need 1 more win as I cannot see the following happening - Luton wont make up 10 points on us as their goal diff is so bad Barnsley wont win again Hull may win one (Luton) I also think Wigan will win all remaining and not finish in the bottom 3 even with a 12 point deduction. They will be demoted next year after the club is pulled apart. Interesting though. Far better than mid table obscurity , this is exciting.  |
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Post by bolders on Jul 9, 2020 12:00:23 GMT
My predictions
Stoke: 46 pts
Leeds United A L
Birmingham City H D
Bristol City A D
Brentford H L
Nottingham Forest A W
Total 51 pts
Charlton: 46 pts
Reading H L
Birmingham City A D
Wigan Athletic H L
Leeds United A L
Total 47 pts
Middlesbrough: 47 pts
Bristol City H D
Reading A W
Cardiff City H L
Sheffield Wednesday A L
Total 51 pts
Hull City: 45 pts
Millwall H D
Wigan Athletic A L
Luton Town H W
Cardiff City A L
Total 49 pts
Huddersfield: 47 pts
Luton Town H W
Sheffield Wednesday A L
West Bromwich Albion H L
Millwall A D
Total 51 pts
Luton Town: 41 pts
Huddersfield A L
Queens Park Rangers H W
Hull City A L
Blackburn Rovers H W
Total 47 pts
Barnsley: 42 pts
Wigan Athletic H L
Leeds United A L
Nottingham Forest H D
Brentford A L
Total 43 pts
Wigan Athletic: 41 pts*
Barnsley A W
Hull City H W
Charlton A W
Fulham H L
* Subject to league rulings
Total 50 pts then minus 12 = 48 pts
Birmingham: 49 pts
Stoke City A D
Charlton Athletic H D
Preston North End A L
Derby County H L
Total 51 pts
Table
Boro 51 pts
Brum 51 pts
Hudders 51 pts
Stoke 51 pts
Hull 49 pts
Wigan 48 pts
Charlton 47 pts
luton 47 pts
Barnsley 43 pts
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Post by spiderpuss on Jul 11, 2020 16:07:41 GMT
Calm before the storm update. You'd think Barnsley are gone with 3 nasty games to come.
Suffice to say beating Birmingham any which way, is priority no.1.
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Post by stuammo on Jul 11, 2020 16:12:18 GMT
Calm before the storm update. You'd think Barnsley are gone with 3 nasty games to come. Suffice to say beating Birmingham any which way, is priority no.1. We play 2 of the 3 teams they’ve still got left too. |
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Post by spiderpuss on Jul 11, 2020 16:16:30 GMT
Calm before the storm update. You'd think Barnsley are gone with 3 nasty games to come. Suffice to say beating Birmingham any which way, is priority no.1. We play 2 of the 3 teams they’ve still got left too. Agreed, and my opinion is that we will only get points from tomorrow's game. |
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Post by neddy on Jul 11, 2020 16:19:51 GMT
Worryingly Brizzle can still make the play offs 🙁
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Post by redandwhitetundra on Jul 11, 2020 16:50:42 GMT
My predictions Stoke: 46 pts Leeds United A L Birmingham City H D Bristol City A D Brentford H L Nottingham Forest A W Total 51 ptsCharlton: 46 ptsReading H L Birmingham City A D Wigan Athletic H L Leeds United A L Total 47 ptsMiddlesbrough: 47 pts
Bristol City H D Reading A W Cardiff City H L Sheffield Wednesday A L Total 51 ptsHull City: 45 ptsMillwall H D Wigan Athletic A L Luton Town H W Cardiff City A L Total 49 ptsHuddersfield: 47 ptsLuton Town H W Sheffield Wednesday A L West Bromwich Albion H L Millwall A D Total 51 ptsLuton Town: 41 ptsHuddersfield A L Queens Park Rangers H W Hull City A L Blackburn Rovers H W Total 47 ptsBarnsley: 42 ptsWigan Athletic H L Leeds United A L Nottingham Forest H D Brentford A L Total 43 ptsWigan Athletic: 41 pts* Barnsley A W Hull City H W Charlton A W Fulham H L * Subject to league rulings Total 50 pts then minus 12 = 48 ptsBirmingham: 49 ptsStoke City A D Charlton Athletic H D Preston North End A L Derby County H L Total 51 ptsTableBoro 51 pts Brum 51 pts Hudders 51 pts Stoke 51 pts Hull 49 pts Wigan 48 pts Charlton 47 pts luton 47 pts Barnsley 43 pts Might wanna check Wigan... You're using a deducted points value and then deducting 12 off again 🤔 |
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Post by victormature on Jul 11, 2020 18:16:59 GMT
I think if we win tomorrow ...... we'll stay up
Birmingham 51 pts
Wigan 49 pts
Middlesbrough 49 pts
Huddersfield 49 pts
Stoke 49 pts
Luton 49 pts
Charlton 48 pts
Hull 47 pts
Barnsley 44 pts
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Post by spongebobflathead on Jul 11, 2020 18:32:00 GMT
We actually Only need 2 points to stay up, the elephant in the room is Wigan have to play Charlton and hull have to play Luton
The losers of those games will find it very difficult indeed to get to 48 points
given that Barnsley would have to beat 2 of Leeds, Brentford or forest to get to 49 points (they would need 49 given their goal difference) which seems highly unlikely
48 will keep us up ,
Hope for a win but see a draw tomorrow
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Post by Vadiation_Ribe on Jul 11, 2020 18:35:55 GMT
I can see Luton getting 6 points from the last 9, putting them on 50. If we get a win and a draw and avoid heavy drubbings, I think 50 points will be just enough given Stoke's better goal difference over Luton. I'd prefer at least 52 points though...
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Post by Uncle cheese on Jul 11, 2020 19:57:22 GMT
I can see Luton getting 6 points from the last 9, putting them on 50. If we get a win and a draw and avoid heavy drubbings, I think 50 points will be just enough given Stoke's better goal difference over Luton. I'd prefer at least 52 points though... Our goal difference is 18 goals better than Luton’s. Another win would make that at least 19. If we then followed that with another draw we would then have to take some major kickings if Luton were to catch us if you think they’ll get 6 points from their last 9 |
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Post by Vadiation_Ribe on Jul 11, 2020 21:00:28 GMT
I can see Luton getting 6 points from the last 9, putting them on 50. If we get a win and a draw and avoid heavy drubbings, I think 50 points will be just enough given Stoke's better goal difference over Luton. I'd prefer at least 52 points though... Our goal difference is 18 goals better than Luton’s. Another win would make that at least 19. If we then followed that with another draw we would then have to take some major kickings if Luton were to catch us if you think they’ll get 6 points from their last 9 That's what I mean and why I can see 50 points being just enough. |
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Post by stokeykez on Jul 11, 2020 21:55:25 GMT
If we can beat Birmingham to.orrow would be amazing. They have a hard run in aswell, cannot discount them from the drop.
Hoping their situation is the same as us keeping Hughes in a job too long then handing the reigns to interim who ultimately relegate the club
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Post by GreaterGlasgowstokie on Jul 11, 2020 21:58:05 GMT
This squad deserves relegation
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Post by essexstokey on Jul 11, 2020 22:14:42 GMT
This squad deserves relegation but the fans dont |
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Post by GreaterGlasgowstokie on Jul 11, 2020 22:25:02 GMT
This squad deserves relegation but the fans dont Of course not. The fans deserve a break from this relentless misery |
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Post by spiderpuss on Jul 12, 2020 14:30:27 GMT
If we can beat Birmingham to.orrow would be amazing. They have a hard run in aswell, cannot discount them from the drop. Hoping their situation is the same as us keeping Hughes in a job too long then handing the reigns to interim who ultimately relegate the club Now updated with our truly amazing result. It will be close, but it would seem our 49+GD will be enough. |
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Post by GrahamHyde on Jul 12, 2020 15:20:03 GMT
According to simulation, >76% chance of staying up with 49 points assuming Wigan fail in their appeal.
If they succeed, then it's >44% chance.
One more point will almost double that second percentage and take the first one in to the 90s.
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Post by datguy on Jul 12, 2020 15:22:11 GMT
Birmingham won't win another game all season off today's showing.
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Post by thehartshillbadger on Jul 12, 2020 15:22:59 GMT
One draw = safe
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Post by jwhpotter on Jul 12, 2020 15:53:59 GMT
Birmingham won't win another game all season off today's showing. I think we’d be very unfortunate to go down now As u say - can’t see Birmingham winning another game Luton won’t get 7 points from their last 3 and Wigan’s point deduction |
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Post by swampmongrel on Jul 12, 2020 15:58:48 GMT
Birmingham won't win another game all season off today's showing. I think we’d be very unfortunate to go down now As u say - can’t see Birmingham winning another game Luton won’t get 7 points from their last 3 and Wigan’s point deduction Think Luton could get 6 so we still could use One more point. |
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Post by lordb on Jul 12, 2020 16:04:15 GMT
Looking at Charlton's fixtures they absolutely have to beat Birmingham
Suspect they will and I then can't see Birmingham getting any more points
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