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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 13:51:36 GMT
I know a lot of people find his tweets comforting, but Karol Sikora’s assertion that we should end lockdown on May 4th and removing wide scale social distancing seems absolutely bat shit insane. On two grounds, one the peak has still not been reached with deaths and thus the burden on the NHS and intensive care has not peaked. We’d need some convincing data to show that we’re out of that for about a week or 10 days before we even consider ending the lockdown. Second, removing widespread social distancing before we have any great concept of how many people have actually had this disease, when antibodies can take 4 weeks to develop anyway is just an invitation to a second spike, that if we can’t control will trigger all of this again. Especially if the predicted infection rate in the country has only been around 5% (the upper scale of the Imperial estimate) He raises some good points, and is good at helping to stop panic, but his thread this morning was self indulgent garbage. All well and good saying “extreme caution” in one breath and thencontradicting it the next by saying resume things in the next..... I read this morning that 9 out of 10 people will either be asymptomatic or not even realise they've had it, given how mild their symptoms are. Given how contagious this virus is, and if that stat above is even remotely accurate, a much bigger number of people in the UK may have already had it. All hypothetical at this point, granted, but it's a positive straw worth grasping for!!
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Post by Scrotnig on Apr 8, 2020 13:52:16 GMT
The lockdown needs intensifying. No it doesn't. The death rate has not yet been impacted by the current measures, which take several weeks to filter into actual death numbers. The first sign will be new case numbers dropping. This might have already started. Then a week or so later hospitalisations. Then further on, the death rate. Screaming for heavier lockdowns now based on a death figure is completely pointless as the measures haven't been in place long enough. People need to calm down a bit.
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Post by scfcno1fan on Apr 8, 2020 13:52:53 GMT
Horrible numbers.
Although some of those will be from the weekend won’t they?
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Apr 8, 2020 13:56:19 GMT
I know a lot of people find his tweets comforting, but Karol Sikora’s assertion that we should end lockdown on May 4th and removing wide scale social distancing seems absolutely bat shit insane. On two grounds, one the peak has still not been reached with deaths and thus the burden on the NHS and intensive care has not peaked. We’d need some convincing data to show that we’re out of that for about a week or 10 days before we even consider ending the lockdown. Second, removing widespread social distancing before we have any great concept of how many people have actually had this disease, when antibodies can take 4 weeks to develop anyway is just an invitation to a second spike, that if we can’t control will trigger all of this again. Especially if the predicted infection rate in the country has only been around 5% (the upper scale of the Imperial estimate) He raises some good points, and is good at helping to stop panic, but his thread this morning was self indulgent garbage. All well and good saying “extreme caution” in one breath and thencontradicting it the next by saying resume things in the next..... I read this morning that 9 out of 10 people will either be asymptomatic or not even realise they've had it, given how mild their symptoms are. Given how contagious this virus is, and if that stat above is even remotely accurate, a much bigger number of people in the UK may have already had it. All hypothetical at this point, granted, but it's a positive straw worth grasping for!! Even it’s 1 in 20 that are being tested and diagnosed that’s still only 1,000,000 with the disease in total. That’s 1.5% of the population. We need 60% to even consider herd immunity. Releasing everything as soon as the lockdown is over (or pretty much based on what he is saying) is just inviting the virus to rebound.
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Post by Northy on Apr 8, 2020 13:57:26 GMT
did they take it on their own without being prescribed by a doctor? I know I wouldn't take it as I'm allergic to some anti malaria tablets. They took something which had a similar ingredients list but what cleans fish tanks Clucking bells, they should have just eaten a few snails, they clean fish tanks !
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Post by yeokel on Apr 8, 2020 13:58:56 GMT
I know a lot of people find his tweets comforting, but Karol Sikora’s assertion that we should end lockdown on May 4th and removing wide scale social distancing seems absolutely bat shit insane. On two grounds, one the peak has still not been reached with deaths and thus the burden on the NHS and intensive care has not peaked. We’d need some convincing data to show that we’re out of that for about a week or 10 days before we even consider ending the lockdown. Second, removing widespread social distancing before we have any great concept of how many people have actually had this disease, when antibodies can take 4 weeks to develop anyway is just an invitation to a second spike, that if we can’t control will trigger all of this again. Especially if the predicted infection rate in the country has only been around 5% (the upper scale of the Imperial estimate) He raises some good points, and is good at helping to stop panic, but his thread this morning was self indulgent garbage. All well and good saying “extreme caution” in one breath and thencontradicting it the next by saying resume things in the next..... I think a second and, probably, a third spike are already accepted as pretty likely aren't they? Isn't that a way of trying to manage the pressure on the NHS?
I suppose Wuhan will inform us (possibly) in a few weeks time.
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Post by Northy on Apr 8, 2020 13:59:50 GMT
The lockdown needs intensifying. No it doesn't. The death rate has not yet been impacted by the current measures, which take several weeks to filter into actual death numbers. The first sign will be new case numbers dropping. This might have already started. Then a week or so later hospitalisations. Then further on, the death rate. Screaming for heavier lockdowns now based on a death figure is completely pointless as the measures haven't been in place long enough. People need to calm down a bit. Blinking eck mate, you are calm and sensible when not talking about Stoke Agree, the deaths are about 28 days from catching it, we'll have to go past 4 weeks of this lockdown before we see any useful data
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Post by Northy on Apr 8, 2020 14:01:06 GMT
The lockdown needs intensifying. I agree. Daily Mail saying some ministers want schools to reopen. Are these people stupid? Ministers or the Daily Mail, or both ?
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Apr 8, 2020 14:01:45 GMT
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Post by AlliG on Apr 8, 2020 14:02:35 GMT
Thinking a lot this morning about what sort of world we will inhabit once we begin to emerge from the control measures and restrictions that currently affect daily life. This week we have had the first tentative references to an exit strategy to clear the impositions currently in play. We can then move forward and attempt to restore some sense of "normality" to the world. However I believe that a lot of recognized behaviour patterns will have been changed for ever. Money and cash movements will work quite differently. Apart from the fact that manufacturing industry will be decimated by only a few months of restriction, and we will most probably be heading into a deep global recession, our access to financial services will be significantly changed. People are not being fully or properly paid, if at all, and more families will have to borrow where possible to make ends meet. So we will be faced by quite serious levels of poverty and debt. Even use of money itself will change. Already the small corner shops and newsagents that are open are accepting "card payments only" and are not taking cash or coin, as a health control. It seems that the idea of exchanging money for goods, which was already going out of favour before the crisis, will become a thing of the past, and all transactions will be by credit or debit card only. The concept of contactless payment, which many older people mistrusted, has now become an established thing. The way we shop will certainly change, Not least because many big name retailers will have gone to the wall, and there will be fewer high street stores in both number and variety. Most trade of goods will take place online, and we will get more used to receiving products by home delivery. Firstly, as it has now become accepted as the main form of shopping, and probably because there will be few alternatives. This acceptance will extend to Supermarket and food shopping, as many potential customers have experienced the delights of home shopping and delivery. The days of the daily shop are now probably gone. Even the excuse for this that it is the only time you get out and meet people some days, has now been shown to be unecessary, with people becoming used to new behavioural patterns. If we are working, then our routines will certainly change. There is a huge sector of business in the UK that comes under the umbrella of a "service industry", formerly operated through an office environment. This model will change. It will now have been proved that meetings do not require a physical attendance by individuals to be effective, and technology will dictate the way we work in future. Once the crisis is over I fully expect to be told that my presence might only be needed "at work" for perhaps one day a week and I will required to continue running a satellite home office, with all the implications this might have for domestic life and routines. Whole areas of life will come under review, such as our use of public transport and vehicles. I have not used the car for three weeks, so clearly if I had to I could dispense with it entirely and work totally online. The point is that we are all starting to see things differently and are changing our perceptions of priorities and the pace of life. Because of what we are experiencing, on this day, at this time, at this moment, and indeeed on each and every day now, change has come to Britiain. Do you think so? A news report from Bejing last night showed traffic nose to tail as though Covid 19 was merely an afterthought. Once restrictions are lifted there will be a population just itching to get back in their cars. Because restoring our 'normal freedoms' will take a while there will certainly be a period of adaption until a vaccine is available/herd immunity achieved where some of the things you mention will certainly be in evidence. Some other things may take longer to return - it's hard to see budget flights being available for a while - but to me the great British public seems hard wired to not stopping in. Socially it's a measure of how popular/interesting you are whilst professionally charging around like a blue arsed fly is a measure of how "busy" you are. Without doubt there will be a recession with everything that brings with it. We are at a crossroads and we can emerge a fairer and more compassionate society or we can carry on along the road to even more inequality than there was before. Sadly I fear the latter. The above are all valid points but having lived through the "3 Day Week" and the 1973 "Oil Crisis" I think it is fair to say that the changes may be completely different from those anticipated (e.g. the 1973 Oil Crisis was expected to see a reduction in private car ownership & usage whereas in the long run it actually rocketed and when I started work some very highly regarded academics were stating that by the end of the 20th Century technology would mean most of us job sharing/ working 20 hours a week ) I have done about 30 miles in my car over the last 2 weeks (shopping, delivering food & medicine, providing assistance to my elderly mother) compared to an average 300. Provided my family, friends (and football club) survive the lockdown period they will still be where they were before the crisis, so my mileage will return to normal as I start re-building my social life (in fact it might even increase as I might be keener to see them more often in the future). In the long term we may see people move to be closer to their family and friends but if there are less jobs and money around it could work exactly the opposite in that people may have to move further away to find employment. In respect of working practices, there is a real risk that a rush to work from home will just result in a widening of the gap between the haves and have-nots. I worked for a FTSE100 company who decided that they were going to close one of their major city offices, move the main functions to other cities and force their "key national workers" to work from home. (Somehow I found myself building and managing the data and review system and information for 1,000+ people nationwide and was also the union H&S rep for my office) The problem was that whilst most people could probably work from home for a few months there is (was) a substantial number of people for whom it was not practical or possible. Approximately 25% of 20-35 year olds currently live at home and in the current economic climate that number is likely to increase. How do you "force" their parents to make over part of their home to be a permanent office for their child/children? The best (worst) example was the data analyst who sat next to me. He lived with his parents in a 2 up 2 down terrace with bathroom off the kitchen and his dad had a serious long term health condition that meant he could not go up stairs, so had his bed in the lining room. (Even though he was not a union member I did enjoy feeding him the arguments he needed to win his case. ) I agree (hope) we will see a reduction in the number of pointless face to face meetings, especially those that involve travel but the technology has been there for many years, so I guess time will tell if most businesses slip back into their old ways. We live in interesting times.
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Apr 8, 2020 14:02:56 GMT
I know a lot of people find his tweets comforting, but Karol Sikora’s assertion that we should end lockdown on May 4th and removing wide scale social distancing seems absolutely bat shit insane. On two grounds, one the peak has still not been reached with deaths and thus the burden on the NHS and intensive care has not peaked. We’d need some convincing data to show that we’re out of that for about a week or 10 days before we even consider ending the lockdown. Second, removing widespread social distancing before we have any great concept of how many people have actually had this disease, when antibodies can take 4 weeks to develop anyway is just an invitation to a second spike, that if we can’t control will trigger all of this again. Especially if the predicted infection rate in the country has only been around 5% (the upper scale of the Imperial estimate) He raises some good points, and is good at helping to stop panic, but his thread this morning was self indulgent garbage. All well and good saying “extreme caution” in one breath and thencontradicting it the next by saying resume things in the next..... I think a second and, probably, a third spike are already accepted as pretty likely aren't they? Isn't that a way of trying to manage the pressure on the NHS?
I suppose Wuhan will inform us (possibly) in a few weeks time. I think the idea is that the harsh lockdown now gives us time and the tools (like testing capacity) to move like South Korea in the event of second outbreaks and quell thing before they really start taking off. That’s certainly the proposal put forward by Imperial anyway. What they certainly don’t want is a huge release of measures, everyone flooding back and then a second spike larger than the first, which based on all available data is what would happen if we follow Sikora’s suggestion. There’s a reason Jenny Harries said 6 months before anything approaching normality. That doesn’t mean 6 month lockdown either, just a gradual release of measures over that time, not in just over a month.
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Post by Mr_DaftBurger on Apr 8, 2020 14:13:34 GMT
I think a second and, probably, a third spike are already accepted as pretty likely aren't they? Isn't that a way of trying to manage the pressure on the NHS?
I suppose Wuhan will inform us (possibly) in a few weeks time. I think the idea is that the harsh lockdown now gives us time and the tools (like testing capacity) to move like South Korea in the event of second outbreaks and quell thing before they really start taking off. That’s certainly the proposal put forward by Imperial anyway. What they certainly don’t want is a huge release of measures, everyone flooding back and then a second spike larger than the first, which based on all available data is what would happen if we follow Sikora’s suggestion. Good news? Dummies explanation please, Faye old boy! news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-hopes-boosted-as-scientists-find-virus-has-low-shielding-11970430
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Apr 8, 2020 14:16:31 GMT
I think the idea is that the harsh lockdown now gives us time and the tools (like testing capacity) to move like South Korea in the event of second outbreaks and quell thing before they really start taking off. That’s certainly the proposal put forward by Imperial anyway. What they certainly don’t want is a huge release of measures, everyone flooding back and then a second spike larger than the first, which based on all available data is what would happen if we follow Sikora’s suggestion. Good news? Dummies explanation please, Faye old boy! news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-hopes-boosted-as-scientists-find-virus-has-low-shielding-11970430Very good news, basically means the vaccine is more viable as the virus can’t really hide itself from the body like other viruses can, this means strong antibody response, like one triggered by a vaccine will be enough to prevent clinical infection. Hopefully it’s true!
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Post by yeokel on Apr 8, 2020 14:24:36 GMT
I think a second and, probably, a third spike are already accepted as pretty likely aren't they? Isn't that a way of trying to manage the pressure on the NHS?
I suppose Wuhan will inform us (possibly) in a few weeks time. I think the idea is that the harsh lockdown now gives us time and the tools (like testing capacity) to move like South Korea in the event of second outbreaks and quell thing before they really start taking off. That’s certainly the proposal put forward by Imperial anyway. What they certainly don’t want is a huge release of measures, everyone flooding back and then a second spike larger than the first, which based on all available data is what would happen if we follow Sikora’s suggestion. There’s a reason Jenny Harries said 6 months before anything approaching normality. That doesn’t mean 6 month lockdown either, just a gradual release of measures over that time, not in just over a month. The French are onboard with you.... " Confinement in France must “continue for several weeks” beyond April 15 as a "crucial priority”, the chief national scientific adviser and scientific council president has said, as Covid-19 deaths exceed 10,000.
Jean-François Delfraissy, immunologist and president of national scientific advisory council Le Conseil Scientifique, told news service FranceInfo this morning (Wednesday April 8): “Confinement must continue for several weeks starting now.”
France began confinement at midday on March 17, with the measures scheduled to remain in place until at least April 15. A further extension now appears likely."
I can't see the UK relaxing things until the beginning of May at the earliest. (although, WTFDIK!)
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Post by AlliG on Apr 8, 2020 14:28:16 GMT
Scotland now added non hospital Covid-19 deaths (at home, care homes etc) raising the reported total from 282 to 366. A more complete measure sadly. This may sound callous but I’m just talking from the number side but that’s not as big an increase as I thought it would be. Still horrible obviously. Isn't the problem with Care/Nursing Homes (as it is with flu, sickness bugs etc) - if it strikes in a Home the age and other health issues of the residents it can (does) lead to extremely high mortality rates and therefore there will be significant peaks and troughs in the reported death rates
- the above points mean more such residents will die with rather than from Covid-19 or it will be the thing that tips the balance
My ex has worked in Nursing Homes for 30+ years and the reductions in staffing levels and concomitant increase in the number of residents they each look after over that period of time must mean that they are less able to keep the residents (and themselves) safe, even if they are finally getting the PPE they need. One can only hope that as many Care/Nursing Homes as possible can be shielded from the virus in the first place.
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Post by AlliG on Apr 8, 2020 14:46:34 GMT
While we are in the quieter part of the day on here, does anyone have any suggestions on how to reduce the amount of tea and coffee I am drinking. I live in a small 2nd floor flat (or penthouse suite ), so other than my morning exercise, I seem to be spending 12-14 hours a day 6 to 8 feet away from the kettle and I have got into the habit of clicking the kettle on every time I move. Being a "gentleman" of a certain age it is playing havoc with my nights. Fortunately I don't keep biscuits in the flat so I am not tempted to dunk with every cup. If an apple a day keeps the doctor away, what does a bag of apples do?
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Post by march4 on Apr 8, 2020 14:49:27 GMT
And the figures don’t include those who choose to die at home of covid-19 nor those who pass away in community homes.
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Post by march4 on Apr 8, 2020 14:50:23 GMT
While we are in the quieter part of the day on here, does anyone have any suggestions on how to reduce the amount of tea and coffee I am drinking. I live in a small 2nd floor flat (or penthouse suite ), so other than my morning exercise, I seem to be spending 12-14 hours a day 6 to 8 feet away from the kettle and I have got into the habit of clicking the kettle on every time I move. Being a "gentleman" of a certain age it is playing havoc with my nights. Fortunately I don't keep biscuits in the flat so I am not tempted to dunk with every cup. If an apple a day keeps the doctor away, what does a bag of apples do? I’ve started drinking orange squash and Ribena as well as tea and coffee.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 14:53:35 GMT
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Post by Clayton Wood on Apr 8, 2020 14:59:10 GMT
Has this been verified by Inspector Gadget?
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 15:02:41 GMT
The lockdown needs intensifying. No it doesn't. The death rate has not yet been impacted by the current measures, which take several weeks to filter into actual death numbers. The first sign will be new case numbers dropping. This might have already started. Then a week or so later hospitalisations. Then further on, the death rate. Screaming for heavier lockdowns now based on a death figure is completely pointless as the measures haven't been in place long enough. People need to calm down a bit. I'm perfectly calm about it thanks. I just think an intense two week lockdown would do a lot more good than harm and is a sensible and necessary measure to help take the strain off the front line healthcare workers and save lives.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 15:03:15 GMT
Has this been verified by Inspector Gadget? He's self isolating, Chief Quimby is on the case though.........
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Post by Northy on Apr 8, 2020 15:08:24 GMT
While we are in the quieter part of the day on here, does anyone have any suggestions on how to reduce the amount of tea and coffee I am drinking. I live in a small 2nd floor flat (or penthouse suite ), so other than my morning exercise, I seem to be spending 12-14 hours a day 6 to 8 feet away from the kettle and I have got into the habit of clicking the kettle on every time I move. Being a "gentleman" of a certain age it is playing havoc with my nights. Fortunately I don't keep biscuits in the flat so I am not tempted to dunk with every cup. If an apple a day keeps the doctor away, what does a bag of apples do? Throw them out or lock most of them away somewhere so you run out quickly, or just drink water and save money on electricity
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Post by stokeson on Apr 8, 2020 15:09:24 GMT
And the figures don’t include those who choose to die at home of covid-19 nor those who pass away in community homes. Is this true March? Cant find info on this anywhere...
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Post by stokeson on Apr 8, 2020 15:15:47 GMT
And the figures don’t include those who choose to die at home of covid-19 nor those who pass away in community homes. Is this true March? Cant find info on this anywhere... Just found it on the NHS site. No they are not. so one of the most at risk groups are not being included in the daily figs.
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Post by Northy on Apr 8, 2020 15:17:07 GMT
And the figures don’t include those who choose to die at home of covid-19 nor those who pass away in community homes. Is this true March? Cant find info on this anywhere... It's true, when they announce it they say confirmed hospital cases. There's an elderly care home in Liverpool that has had many pass away this week whose numbers haven't been added yet.
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Post by Laughing Gravy on Apr 8, 2020 15:24:18 GMT
While we are in the quieter part of the day on here, does anyone have any suggestions on how to reduce the amount of tea and coffee I am drinking. I live in a small 2nd floor flat (or penthouse suite ), so other than my morning exercise, I seem to be spending 12-14 hours a day 6 to 8 feet away from the kettle and I have got into the habit of clicking the kettle on every time I move. Being a "gentleman" of a certain age it is playing havoc with my nights. Fortunately I don't keep biscuits in the flat so I am not tempted to dunk with every cup. If an apple a day keeps the doctor away, what does a bag of apples do? Makes you poo.
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Post by davejohnno1 on Apr 8, 2020 15:25:30 GMT
No it doesn't. The death rate has not yet been impacted by the current measures, which take several weeks to filter into actual death numbers. The first sign will be new case numbers dropping. This might have already started. Then a week or so later hospitalisations. Then further on, the death rate. Screaming for heavier lockdowns now based on a death figure is completely pointless as the measures haven't been in place long enough. People need to calm down a bit. I'm perfectly calm about it thanks. I just think an intense two week lockdown would do a lot more good than harm and is a sensible and necessary measure to help take the strain off the front line healthcare workers and save lives. I share that view. The sooner we can start getting back to some semblance of normality the better. If more stringent lockdown achieves that, then lets do it. EDIT - if I'd seen that Clem had liked your initial post I wouldn't have done so myself!
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Post by ravey123 on Apr 8, 2020 15:26:19 GMT
Is this true March? Cant find info on this anywhere... It's true, when they announce it they say confirmed hospital cases. There's an elderly care home in Liverpool that has had many pass away this week whose numbers haven't been added yet. There was a graph on Sky News last night showing the rise in deaths due to COVID-19. There were actually 2 lines - 1 line showing the deaths in hospitals (ie the numbers we get) and a second line showing the estimated COVID-19 deaths from all sources (I think). The difference was alarming. For example for yesterday's total of 800(ish) it said the actual number was more like 1600 - from the graph it looked like actual deaths due to COVID-19 from all avenues (hospitals, nursing homes, at home) is running at approx 2x the numbers we are being told. Don't know how they know this because surely if someone dies from COVID-19 it shows up in their post mortem so perhaps its a bit of a guess.
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Post by stokeson on Apr 8, 2020 15:28:40 GMT
Is this true March? Cant find info on this anywhere... It's true, when they announce it they say confirmed hospital cases. There's an elderly care home in Liverpool that has had many pass away this week whose numbers haven't been added yet. Thanks Northy and Ravey. The total in the end could be shocking.
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