|
|
Post by crapslinger on Mar 29, 2020 15:28:58 GMT
Yesterday. Bat out of hell.
It's the end of the world as we know it -R.E.M. Stand clear - M.O.P. Breathe -Pearl Jam I don't know what all the fuss is about -Peter Coates China in your hand. |
|
|
|
Post by dutchstokie on Mar 29, 2020 15:30:20 GMT
Just tuned into the BBC briefing, and that woman in green certainly knows her onions…...dunno who she is though
|
|
|
|
Post by crapslinger on Mar 29, 2020 15:31:11 GMT
Yesterday. Bat out of hell.
It's the end of the world as we know it -R.E.M. Stand clear - M.O.P. Breathe -Pearl Jam I don't know what all the fuss is about -Peter Coates Chinese Democracy - Guns & Roses |
|
|
|
Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 29, 2020 15:33:07 GMT
I think much of the strategy will lie in the antibody test and assessing who has had it. When we had just 200 confirmed cases they extrapolated that around 10,000 people actually had the virus. Now we’re at what 20,000 so if you extrapolate up again that’s a million. When that comes in, I reckon we’ll be able to start scaling back some of the social distancing measures and I reckon it will be a compulsory part of going back to work. They will probably relax in stages rather than all of society all at once to stagger it, those who then contract it will be told to isolate etc. Probably followed by a triggering of similar measures if there is another outbreak, but hopefully now we’d be much more vigilant there would be extensive testing and contact tracing which our initial response lacked heavily. This should allow is to control outbreaks as they happen, but it requires massive investment. If enough people get it, say 8 out of 10 then we will have a degree of freedom at the R0 will definitely plummet below 1 as statistically 80% of people you come across would be unable to contract it. This is the fabled “herd immunity” that could potentially protect the 2 out of 10 who haven’t had it. But they were caught off guard by how contagious this thing is, so that is now a much lengthier process to obtain because of lockdown even though most will be mild. It’s a puzzle and one they’ll have to work out as they go, but they know lockdown isn’t sustainable, that’s why the antibody test is being fast tracked, get that going and we may finally be able to identify just how many people have had it and what the feasible strategy is moving forward. At this point, I don’t see how they can accurately say where we stand. The people who may be most effected will be those most at risk though, I can’t see even how with mass antibody testing how you get those people back into society safely, it may be their lockdown has to last much longer but that’s not feasible at all and any further outbreak to that population risks so many lives. It’s a real puzzle. you seem to be in the loop fella.. I was talking to someone in the fire service and they reckon we're going to have three surges of this virus this year... Perfectly possible tbh, lockdown isn’t sustainable, there’s no accurate estimate for how many have had it and are immune and there will eventually have to be a resumption in normality. So further exposure is inevitable, but hopefully now. Manageable. If there are anymore surges, I hope we have learned our lessons from before and test, trace and isolate a lot quicker, it would significantly decrease the impact of any surge. |
|
|
|
Post by Seymour Beaver on Mar 29, 2020 15:33:45 GMT
With that much food about surely you were tempted? You’re so predictable😄 You wouldn't want me any other way Lover Boy. |
|
|
|
Post by Davef on Mar 29, 2020 15:35:49 GMT
Hopefully there will be therapies up and running soon, especially if they’re from existing medicines as you can avoid much of the red tape that comes with designing a new treatment (such as the most effective antibodies extracted from existing patients story I posted the other day) but they still have to come through the trials and show efficacy. Also, all treatments have side effects and a full risk assessment of these would have to be taken before they begin any rollout. It’s also important that these drugs would only ameliorate cases in hospital, they wouldn’t stop a spread but they would potentially help those in hospital with the disease. But we’d still need very careful monitoring of the spread of any local outbreaks. With viruses, the first line of defence is always prophylaxis like a vaccine, but therapeutics would help to save a lot more people and potentially free up key resources like ventilators etc as severe cases with treatment become mild and so on. That story also confirms, the vaccine target for one trial is one of the viral proteins, this would indicate it will be pretty stable and not at risk of heavily mutating. Promising. I read yesterday that 50% of hospital admissions survive, so if a drug can get that up to say 70/80% then hopefully we can return to some kind of normality, especially considering 80% of cases only show mild symptoms? |
|
|
|
Post by Veritas on Mar 29, 2020 15:35:55 GMT
It is selfish individuals like you that give the self- employed a bad reputation, I don't suppose you will reduce your use of public services and facilities to make up for you stealing from the public purse. I pay enough in taxes, it's not my fault they waste it But you are happy to falsely report your taxable income and defraud your fellow citizens. |
|
|
|
Post by Seymour Beaver on Mar 29, 2020 15:38:16 GMT
Yesterday. Bat out of hell.
It's the end of the world as we know it -R.E.M. Stand clear - M.O.P. Breathe -Pearl Jam I don't know what all the fuss is about -Peter Coates Isolation - Joy Division |
|
|
|
Post by sheikhmomo on Mar 29, 2020 15:38:31 GMT
Yesterday. Bat out of hell.
It's the end of the world as we know it -R.E.M. Stand clear - M.O.P. Breathe -Pearl Jam I don't know what all the fuss is about -Peter Coates Ner ner ner ner ner ner ner nineteen. Paul Hardcastle |
|
|
|
Post by berahinosgoals on Mar 29, 2020 15:39:01 GMT
I pay enough in taxes, it's not my fault they waste it But you are happy to falsely report your taxable income and defraud your fellow citizens. Its mugs like you that accept it and carry on as normal whilst being robbed that make high taxes happen, when the rate of n.i doubles and your taxes increase youll be begging trades to give you a better cash price. Whose defrauding then? |
|
|
|
Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 29, 2020 15:40:49 GMT
Hopefully there will be therapies up and running soon, especially if they’re from existing medicines as you can avoid much of the red tape that comes with designing a new treatment (such as the most effective antibodies extracted from existing patients story I posted the other day) but they still have to come through the trials and show efficacy. Also, all treatments have side effects and a full risk assessment of these would have to be taken before they begin any rollout. It’s also important that these drugs would only ameliorate cases in hospital, they wouldn’t stop a spread but they would potentially help those in hospital with the disease. But we’d still need very careful monitoring of the spread of any local outbreaks. With viruses, the first line of defence is always prophylaxis like a vaccine, but therapeutics would help to save a lot more people and potentially free up key resources like ventilators etc as severe cases with treatment become mild and so on. That story also confirms, the vaccine target for one trial is one of the viral proteins, this would indicate it will be pretty stable and not at risk of heavily mutating. Promising. I read yesterday that 50% of hospital admissions survive, so if a drug can get that up to say 70/80% then hopefully we can return to some kind of normality, especially considering 80% of cases only show mild symptoms? You would hope so, I guess it’s just a matter of how the raw numbers behind those percentages develop and ensuring the rate is as slow as possible. Letting our guard down and a second spike overwhelming us would shift that 50% figure dramatically even if we have treatments. Go the other way, and we could well bump up survival even more, especially with therapeutic drugs. Vigilance is key, you would hope we’d all be a little more so now and I’ve no doubt the powers that be definitely will be. |
|
|
|
Post by crouchpotato1 on Mar 29, 2020 15:44:54 GMT
You wouldn't want me any other way Lover Boy. Lover Boy😮Don’t go all Pans on me😄 |
|
|
|
Post by Seymour Beaver on Mar 29, 2020 15:48:40 GMT
But you are happy to falsely report your taxable income and defraud your fellow citizens. Its mugs like you that accept it and carry on as normal whilst being robbed that make high taxes happen, when the rate of n.i doubles and your taxes increase youll be begging trades to give you a better cash price. Whose defrauding then? If this situation carries on for any length of time it will see the end of cash - no-one wants to touch it at the moment - literally. Aside from that though I don't mind paying my taxes providing (a) loopholes like non doms are closed and likes of Amazon, Vodafone etc pay a fair whack based on what they earn in the country and (b) it's not pissed up the wall when I've paid it. |
|
|
|
Post by Seymour Beaver on Mar 29, 2020 15:51:40 GMT
You wouldn't want me any other way Lover Boy. Lover Boy😮Don’t go all Pans on me😄 The other one's the racist and you're the homophobe. They say judge a man by the company he keeps. Not looking good for me right now!! |
|
|
|
Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 29, 2020 15:52:04 GMT
Jenny Harries just confirmed this situation will be constantly reviewed but it could be 6 months before a return to “normality”.
If we get a break, with anti-viral treatments and such it could be much less than that. But we have to see, one thing is absolutely correct though, lift this too early and it’s a wasted effort.
|
|
|
|
Post by devondumpling on Mar 29, 2020 15:53:27 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by berahinosgoals on Mar 29, 2020 15:53:33 GMT
Its mugs like you that accept it and carry on as normal whilst being robbed that make high taxes happen, when the rate of n.i doubles and your taxes increase youll be begging trades to give you a better cash price. Whose defrauding then? If this situation carries on for any length of time it will see the end of cash - no-one wants to touch it at the moment - literally. Aside from that though I don't mind paying my taxes providing (a) loopholes like non doms are closed and likes of Amazon, Vodafone etc pay a fair whack based on what they earn in the country and (b) it's not pissed up the wall when I've paid it. Exactly, amazon are as good as tax free, earn billions, but let's pick on the guy trying to earn a half decent living in a rip off country. We're taxed on literally everything, its bollocks and it's only going to go one way after this is over. There is no chance at all that a government are giving a nation a 3 month holiday on 80% pay f.o.c |
|
|
|
Post by MilanStokie on Mar 29, 2020 16:05:13 GMT
Better news for Lombardy. 416 deaths today as opposed to 540 yesterday.
Awaiting full Italy results now.
|
|
|
|
Post by werrington on Mar 29, 2020 16:06:22 GMT
Better news for Lombardy. 416 deaths today as opposed to 540 yesterday. Awaiting full Italy results now. Italian minister on the BBC news says another 10 days then it will start to drop mate |
|
|
|
Post by MilanStokie on Mar 29, 2020 16:09:38 GMT
Italy update.
756 dead today. Accelerating outside of Lombardy now, especially the south.
|
|
|
|
Post by MilanStokie on Mar 29, 2020 16:11:01 GMT
Better news for Lombardy. 416 deaths today as opposed to 540 yesterday. Awaiting full Italy results now. Italian minister on the BBC news says another 10 days then it will start to drop mate What will start to drop? It's all guesstimates, the original peak was predicted 4th April, last week they changed to mid April. I hope we are currently in it. The deaths I fear won't drop for a few more weeks however. |
|
|
|
Post by harryburrows on Mar 29, 2020 16:14:19 GMT
Hopefully there will be therapies up and running soon, especially if they’re from existing medicines as you can avoid much of the red tape that comes with designing a new treatment (such as the most effective antibodies extracted from existing patients story I posted the other day) but they still have to come through the trials and show efficacy. Also, all treatments have side effects and a full risk assessment of these would have to be taken before they begin any rollout. It’s also important that these drugs would only ameliorate cases in hospital, they wouldn’t stop a spread but they would potentially help those in hospital with the disease. But we’d still need very careful monitoring of the spread of any local outbreaks. With viruses, the first line of defence is always prophylaxis like a vaccine, but therapeutics would help to save a lot more people and potentially free up key resources like ventilators etc as severe cases with treatment become mild and so on. That story also confirms, the vaccine target for one trial is one of the viral proteins, this would indicate it will be pretty stable and not at risk of heavily mutating. Promising. I read yesterday that 50% of hospital admissions survive, so if a drug can get that up to say 70/80% then hopefully we can return to some kind of normality, especially considering 80% of cases only show mild symptoms? So you think 30% mortality is ok then . |
|
|
|
Post by Davef on Mar 29, 2020 16:19:54 GMT
I read yesterday that 50% of hospital admissions survive, so if a drug can get that up to say 70/80% then hopefully we can return to some kind of normality, especially considering 80% of cases only show mild symptoms? So you think 30% mortality is ok then . Don't be ridiculous. |
|
|
|
Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 29, 2020 16:20:52 GMT
I read yesterday that 50% of hospital admissions survive, so if a drug can get that up to say 70/80% then hopefully we can return to some kind of normality, especially considering 80% of cases only show mild symptoms? So you think 30% mortality is ok then . It wouldn’t be 30% total mortality even in that case. That 30% would be a fraction of total cases. Up to 15-20% of those with COVID require hospitalisation. Of these 50% at this point survive. (7.5-10% gross at the highest estimate) With treatments in place increasing that survival rate to around 80% of those in hospital you’d be looking at 16% out of 20% then surviving following admission with 4% mortality gross. That’s before even factoring in the fact so many cases aren’t being counter, mortality is believed to actually be around 1%. This is a very serious situation, and people are going to die, we have to understand that. It’s fucking tragic, but we can’t avoid it at this point. All we can so is our bit and protect those around us and our loved ones. |
|
|
|
Post by crouchpotato1 on Mar 29, 2020 16:21:04 GMT
Lover Boy😮Don’t go all Pans on me😄 The other one's the racist and you're the homophobe. They say judge a man by the company he keeps. Not looking good for me right now!! Don’t post things like that or folks will believe you😜 |
|
|
|
Post by harryburrows on Mar 29, 2020 16:21:42 GMT
So you think 30% mortality is ok then . Don't be ridiculous. You said it Dave |
|
|
|
Post by bigjohnritchie on Mar 29, 2020 16:24:41 GMT
Can someone clarify this for me( apologies if it has already been answered or if it is obvious....I'm only dipping in and out)....
If the strategy is to flatten the number of cases so that the NHS can cope and possibly reach a point when there is a vaccine available.....if the vaccine doesn't become available until after isolation measures are eased off ....then isn't it inevitable that EACH and everyone one of us WILL eventually be exposed to the virus and it is largely in the lap of the gods whether we survive it?
Obviously not only is it human nature to try to avoid it , is it logical that we are isolating actually only to flatten the numbers....which obviously should decrease the impact.....is it realistic to think that we can avoid it forever?
|
|
|
|
Post by zerps on Mar 29, 2020 16:25:53 GMT
Infection rates drop for the second day in a row in the uk
|
|
|
|
Post by Davef on Mar 29, 2020 16:26:50 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by CalgaryPotter on Mar 29, 2020 16:26:53 GMT
Back with some more lay-man's thoughts  If these 'underlying health conditions' have the effect of suppressing the natural immune system, is there any way that 'at risk' groups could have their immunity boosted? It wouldn't stop them catching it but may reduce the effects/mortality. I'd start charging by the response here mate  Because we don’t know the full pathological effects of Covid, any attempt to boost immunity (which is difficult anyway) or treat without guidance or evidence may be misguided, we’ve seen with something as simple as ibuprofen it’s been recorded as having negative effects. For many people it’s not that their immune system is suppressed, it’s the fact their condition say (COPD) is particularly exacerbated by the respiratory conditions of COVID. COPD is hard enough to manage as is, nevermind with a serious infection on top. For some people, boosting the immune system could also be clinically disastrous as their conditions are caused by the body attacking itself, particularly with stuff like Crohn’s disease. Finally it’s well worth noting, no one has immunity to this, it’s a new disease and if you come into contact with it you will get it, so even if you have the best immune system in the world, it doesn’t have antibodies to this, they will only be created by exposure or an eventual vaccine. The only thing that changes is that your response will be better in suppressing it, but each case would have to be viewed individually, there are no one size fits all treatments atm. So that’s why the best form of immunity “boost” as it were for those at risk is isolation until the transmission chains are severely disrupted or a vaccine is viable. In a sea of political grandstanding your posts are much appreciated by this diabetic with RA. 👍🏼 |
|
