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Post by musik on Mar 19, 2020 0:06:42 GMT
Hang on ... I've found info on that ...
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Post by spitthedog on Mar 19, 2020 0:14:51 GMT
It sounds a bit dodgy but generally Germans are alot more disciplined than English people and will take this far more seriously. I think alot of English people have not grasped the seriousness of this even now. I've picked this up from work colleagues, very casual about the whole thing tbh I can imagine in Germany they will generally abide by Government guidelines much more stringently. This seriousness should have been applied weeks ago though.
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Post by musik on Mar 19, 2020 0:20:45 GMT
From Svensk-Cubanska Föreningen again: "The Germany case is odd. 3156 sick but only 3 dead. How do they do it? Angela Merkel has launched more than 1000 laboratories to be able to fast commercialize a medicine against Corona. But where did they turn to buy Antivirals? From the Chinese-Cuban plant ChangHeber in Jilin. It means Germany has used the Interferon Alfa 2B Recombinante" (which I mentioned earlier). "And Trump, on the news, has tried to convince the germans to come to the USA to develop a vaccine against Corona, but the german state has denied it. Cuba now has tons of questions from around the world about buying the Interferon Alfa 2B Recombinante."
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 0:27:27 GMT
From Svensk-Cubanska Föreningen again: "The Germany case is odd. 3156 sick but only 3 dead. How do they do it? Angela Merkel has launched more than 1000 laboratories to be able to fast commercialize a medicine against Corona. But where did they turn to buy Antivirals? From the Chinese-Cuban plant ChangHeber in Jilin. It means Germany has used the Interferon Alfa 2B Recombinante" (which I mentioned earlier). "And Trump, on the news, has tried to convince the germans to come to the USA to develop a vaccine against Corona, but the german state has denied it. Cuba now has tons of questions from around the world about buying the Interferon Alfa 2B Recombinante." Is this the link you were after? blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2020/03/18/cuba-and-coronavirus-how-cuban-biotech-came-to-combat-covid-19/
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 0:30:54 GMT
USA going into melt down.
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Post by musik on Mar 19, 2020 0:40:35 GMT
From Svensk-Cubanska Föreningen again: "The Germany case is odd. 3156 sick but only 3 dead. How do they do it? Angela Merkel has launched more than 1000 laboratories to be able to fast commercialize a medicine against Corona. But where did they turn to buy Antivirals? From the Chinese-Cuban plant ChangHeber in Jilin. It means Germany has used the Interferon Alfa 2B Recombinante" (which I mentioned earlier). "And Trump, on the news, has tried to convince the germans to come to the USA to develop a vaccine against Corona, but the german state has denied it. Cuba now has tons of questions from around the world about buying the Interferon Alfa 2B Recombinante." Is this the link you were after? blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2020/03/18/cuba-and-coronavirus-how-cuban-biotech-came-to-combat-covid-19/No, that was more of a history lesson about Interferon, Cuba and the past. But thanks, the solution might have been around for some time then. Only with some fine tuning perhaps.
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Post by spitthedog on Mar 19, 2020 0:50:35 GMT
USA going into melt down. please refer to the very first post on this thread!
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 1:04:15 GMT
Just back from a run in central park and reviewing today's posts. The situation here is now basically everyone is sheltering in place. You can still go out to get your groceries (I walked past my supermarket - fully stocked, 2 people in the check out line), pick up laundry, pharmacies, hair cut (by appointment), food delivery from restaurants (my curry arrived in 20 mins today after ordering), go for a walk or run for fresh air (people being very good about staying min 6 feet away from each other), nobody is going anywhere unless its to-from work which can not be done from home. There is no point going anywhere - everything is closed! Basically everything is fine and functioning well. There is no "lockdown" or "panic" the UK should by now doing exactly the same - the problem we are facing is no different in S-o-T.
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Post by starkiller on Mar 19, 2020 1:05:47 GMT
If the feral youth are out and about, all over the place, in shops and the like, I really think we are fucked for containment. Shouldn't they be keeping to their timetable online, or will teachers take the lazy option and throw them a pile of sheets?
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Post by GoBoks on Mar 19, 2020 1:46:40 GMT
Looking at it purely from a statistical viewpoint and keeping emotions to the side, you have to wonder if the long term impact of ruining Millions of peoples livelihoods (many of whom will never recover) and the fallout for decades to come is worth the cost. On a totally different tack, the world loses about 125,000 lives A DAY through abortion. How is it that older people have the right to demand protection even though they have lived most of their lives, while people with their entire life before them are not protected at all? Apples and Oranges comparison though, to take emotions out of it, an abortion is a single procedure and they are spread evenly across the year with no risk of overloading a health system, they don’t require long term management with a limited resource like ventilators and abortions aren’t an infectious disease. If we did mitigation and took if on the chin, the best case scenario is 250,000 dead for a kickoff (it would likely be far higher) which would completely change the economic landscape anyway . It’s not like life would carry on in that event with no effect on business anyway. That’s before you even factor in people who rely on a functioning health service for other conditions who would be unable to use it whilst the system was overloaded with cases of Covid. Wow! 250,000 Crikey, that’s 2 days worth of abortions. Just saying it seems ludicrous to destroy people’s livelihoods to try protect ultimately a small number of people who have by and large lived their lives while simply brushing aside the fact that 125,000 people with their whole lives before them are afforded no protection at all. One last thought, is this best case scenario by the same people who can’t work out if it’s 10,000 or 500,000 people who are expected to die?
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Post by estrangedsonoffaye on Mar 19, 2020 2:06:54 GMT
Apples and Oranges comparison though, to take emotions out of it, an abortion is a single procedure and they are spread evenly across the year with no risk of overloading a health system, they don’t require long term management with a limited resource like ventilators and abortions aren’t an infectious disease. If we did mitigation and took if on the chin, the best case scenario is 250,000 dead for a kickoff (it would likely be far higher) which would completely change the economic landscape anyway . It’s not like life would carry on in that event with no effect on business anyway. That’s before you even factor in people who rely on a functioning health service for other conditions who would be unable to use it whilst the system was overloaded with cases of Covid. Wow! 250,000 Crikey, that’s 2 days worth of abortions. Just saying it seems ludicrous to destroy people’s livelihoods to try protect ultimately a small number of people who have by and large lived their lives while simply brushing aside the fact that 125,000 people with their whole lives before them are afforded no protection at all. One last thought, is this best case scenario by the same people who can’t work out if it’s 10,000 or 500,000 people who are expected to die? The figures are part of various mathematical models from Imperial College that have been published based on data from Italy, UK testing and the effectiveness of measures put in place. They’re quite explicit in how they detail the expected deaths, and each estimate is part of a separate calculation. For instance the 10,000 figure and 500,000 figure are at completely different ends of the non-pharmaceutical intervention scale. 500,000 is the upper estimate based on doing very little, 10-20,000 is the estimate with the measures currently in place assuming the majority comply to them. It’s not a 20,000 to 500,000 range for the same set of interventions that would be absurd. The 250k figure cited would be the result based on self isolation being the main intervention but data from Italy plugged into the model caused a change from that strategy to the suppression currently being enacted because 250k deaths would overload the health service. But it’s very hard to model public compliance with the measures, so naturally there is a degree of error, but nothing like a range of 20,000-500,000 for one set of measures. Abortion is a completely separate issue, and I’m not going to discuss it in depth because it’s a Coronavirus thread and it’s a can of worms, but it’s not a comparison that can be made to the worst pandemic crisis in a century. The measures put in place do protect the elderly and vulnerable but they ultimately also protect us all, intensive care overload could potentially effect each and every one of us and not putting these measures into place would realise that scenario scarily quickly.
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Post by felonious on Mar 19, 2020 4:42:16 GMT
It was busy in our local in Surrey last night. I think some people have simply formed the view that since the genie is fully out the bottle and 65% or 80% or whatever it is of us will need to catch it in the end in order for an immunity to be built up it makes little substantive difference to yourself if you catch it now or in June. I suppose you might get lucky and not get it at all until a vaccine comes along in 18 months but then are you any more likely to catch it in the pub than the supermarket? You could have months of abject misery holed out in your in the house and then catch it the very day things open again. I fully get that common decency demands that you catch it later rather than sooner to flatten out the curve and ease the burden on the NHS. But I mean, show of hands, who is seriously planning to spend from now until say July banged up in their house? It does make a substantive difference though, how many people catch it during this exponential phase will directly determine how many people die or how many people end up on ventilators (which includes oldies in the pub of anyone who gets a severe case due to any underlying health problem. It’s day 3 of the measures and a lot of people haven’t even tried. You are far more likely to catch it in a pub, lots more chance of close contact, constant recycling of glasses, limited space etc than a large supermarket. There could well be a relaxing of the measures by July, even more so if they get the antibody test that tells you if you’d had it up and running as people would have a least some short term immunity. But if people ignore the advice now, it makes the possibility less likely because if enough people ignore it, overload the NHS the longer and more costly this thing is. People ignoring this advice now will be contributing to the death toll and the misery. There's some people too thick to understand the request and there are others intelligent enough to understand it but too selfish to implement it. I've come to the conclusion that a mandatory lock down is the only way to achieve the objective. It's not just the pub set Channel 4 showed a gym in full flow on last night's programme which really did show off the "I'm alright Jack" set.
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Post by felonious on Mar 19, 2020 5:35:35 GMT
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Post by mtrstudent on Mar 19, 2020 5:46:30 GMT
Median time infection to death is about 23 days, and 23 days ago Germany had ~18 reported cases. We also had about that many reported, but if we tested fewer people then we would have had more actually infected. So better & earlier testing could be a factor, or maybe the infected Germans were younger and/or healthier? Too many possibilities, not enough numbers. If it gets into a single old people's home the numbers look terrifying, but if it infects a bunch of rugby lads on tour it doesn't seem a big deal... we'll have to wait and see.
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Post by felonious on Mar 19, 2020 5:55:15 GMT
Thanks mate. I think the pertinent sentence is half way through the report where it says 'there are currently no plans for large-scale deployment'. I know March didn't directly say that but it was implied and has definitely been stated as fact on other social media. It would be massively negligent not to have troops on standby to assist with roles like tanker drivers, ambulance even policing but what it doesn't mean is that at the stroke of midnight they'll be goosestepping down the High Street rounding up revellers as some have suggested elsewhere. I don’t envisage troops on the streets maintaining law and order. However I think they will be vital distributing goods and adding to our medical resources. We need to use everything and everyone to combat this virus. Now pushed up to 20,000.
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Post by harryburrows on Mar 19, 2020 6:21:04 GMT
Apples and Oranges comparison though, to take emotions out of it, an abortion is a single procedure and they are spread evenly across the year with no risk of overloading a health system, they don’t require long term management with a limited resource like ventilators and abortions aren’t an infectious disease. If we did mitigation and took if on the chin, the best case scenario is 250,000 dead for a kickoff (it would likely be far higher) which would completely change the economic landscape anyway . It’s not like life would carry on in that event with no effect on business anyway. That’s before you even factor in people who rely on a functioning health service for other conditions who would be unable to use it whilst the system was overloaded with cases of Covid. Wow! 250,000 Crikey, that’s 2 days worth of abortions. Just saying it seems ludicrous to destroy people’s livelihoods to try protect ultimately a small number of people who have by and large lived their lives while simply brushing aside the fact that 125,000 people with their whole lives before them are afforded no protection at all. One last thought, is this best case scenario by the same people who can’t work out if it’s 10,000 or 500,000 people who are expected to die? Tell that to the millions of people at risk worldwide who aren't over 70 , what moronic logic
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 6:38:04 GMT
It does make a substantive difference though, how many people catch it during this exponential phase will directly determine how many people die or how many people end up on ventilators (which includes oldies in the pub of anyone who gets a severe case due to any underlying health problem. It’s day 3 of the measures and a lot of people haven’t even tried. You are far more likely to catch it in a pub, lots more chance of close contact, constant recycling of glasses, limited space etc than a large supermarket. There could well be a relaxing of the measures by July, even more so if they get the antibody test that tells you if you’d had it up and running as people would have a least some short term immunity. But if people ignore the advice now, it makes the possibility less likely because if enough people ignore it, overload the NHS the longer and more costly this thing is. People ignoring this advice now will be contributing to the death toll and the misery. There's some people too thick to understand the request and there are others intelligent enough to understand it but too selfish to implement it. I've come to the conclusion that a mandatory lock down is the only way to achieve the objective. It's not just the pub set Channel 4 showed a gym in full flow on last night's programme which really did show off the "I'm alright Jack" set. There will always be an element of uncertainty if the message is “we recommend you stay away from XYZ” whilst still allowing those places to stay open and trade.......
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Post by Eggybread on Mar 19, 2020 6:49:16 GMT
Just found out that one of my sons who lives in south London, well his girlfriends mother has the virus.She is 67 and went to the doctors feeling unwell he has told he that she has the virus but the latter stages of it and she should be ok.She also has COPD Good news mate but odd that he was able to give her a test. She phoned 111 and they sent her to the hospital not the doctors.My mistake.
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Post by Eggybread on Mar 19, 2020 6:54:19 GMT
Apples and Oranges comparison though, to take emotions out of it, an abortion is a single procedure and they are spread evenly across the year with no risk of overloading a health system, they don’t require long term management with a limited resource like ventilators and abortions aren’t an infectious disease. If we did mitigation and took if on the chin, the best case scenario is 250,000 dead for a kickoff (it would likely be far higher) which would completely change the economic landscape anyway . It’s not like life would carry on in that event with no effect on business anyway. That’s before you even factor in people who rely on a functioning health service for other conditions who would be unable to use it whilst the system was overloaded with cases of Covid. Wow! 250,000 Crikey, that’s 2 days worth of abortions. Just saying it seems ludicrous to destroy people’s livelihoods to try protect ultimately a small number of people who have by and large lived their lives while simply brushing aside the fact that 125,000 people with their whole lives before them are afforded no protection at all. One last thought, is this best case scenario by the same people who can’t work out if it’s 10,000 or 500,000 people who are expected to die? And you dont care who you pass it on to and the consequences of your actions.
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Post by felonious on Mar 19, 2020 7:06:14 GMT
People ignoring this advice now will be contributing to the death toll and the misery. There's some people too thick to understand the request and there are others intelligent enough to understand it but too selfish to implement it. I've come to the conclusion that a mandatory lock down is the only way to achieve the objective. It's not just the pub set Channel 4 showed a gym in full flow on last night's programme which really did show off the "I'm alright Jack" set. There will always be an element of uncertainty if the message is “we recommend you stay away from XYZ” whilst still allowing those places to stay open and trade....... I think you'll find that the majority out there understand the message but choose to ignore it. Look at the message being sent by Stanley Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn. I think the message has had to come on the drip to halt full scale panic although even then we've still seen a fair element of that this week.
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Post by musik on Mar 19, 2020 7:37:43 GMT
Median time infection to death is about 23 days, and 23 days ago Germany had ~18 reported cases. We also had about that many reported, but if we tested fewer people then we would have had more actually infected. So better & earlier testing could be a factor, or maybe the infected Germans were younger and/or healthier? The use of Interferon Alfa 2B Recombinante perhaps, as I wrote before. Just as in Sevilla and South Korea.
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Post by henry on Mar 19, 2020 7:55:43 GMT
Nice thought to go to bed on that. Cheers bud Well the refund of a few quid will feel irrelevant once you've been stuck in your house for months. Not if it keeps his head above water it won’t.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2020 7:58:26 GMT
No new cases reported in China.
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Post by Gods on Mar 19, 2020 8:00:38 GMT
Must be an interesting dynamic coming up with the UK stats.
We increase testing x5 each day at the exact same time you might expect to see some of the shut down measures starting to work.
My guess is we'll see exponential rises in positive tests but a big fall in the death rate since most people at deaths door will have been tested in the previous testing regime.
New numbers will need careful explanation and context.
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Post by foster on Mar 19, 2020 8:03:48 GMT
Just heard from a lady that shares an office with me at work that she's in quarantine with her daughters as one of them has the virus. She herself doesn't have any symptoms so hopefully she didn't have the virus when I last saw her a week ago. In any case, she's around 60 years old and stuck at home with someone who is infected so not so good for her.
My girlfriend is on a call with a colleague who's telling her now that he has the virus. Last week they were working together. She's sitting opposite me with my kids at the dining table. I may have to evict her.
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Post by foster on Mar 19, 2020 8:06:14 GMT
Must be an interesting dynamic coming up with the UK stats. We increase testing x5 each day at the exact same time you might expect to see some of the shut down measures starting to work. My guess is we'll see exponential rises in positive tests but a big fall in the death rate since most people at deaths door will have been tested in the previous testing regime. New numbers will need careful explanation and context. Only if they had already contracted the virus. I'd expect a lot more deaths in the coming weeks as symptoms start developing.
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Post by Gods on Mar 19, 2020 8:11:53 GMT
Must be an interesting dynamic coming up with the UK stats. We increase testing x5 each day at the exact same time you might expect to see some of the shut down measures starting to work. My guess is we'll see exponential rises in positive tests but a big fall in the death rate since most people at deaths door will have been tested in the previous testing regime. New numbers will need careful explanation and context. Only if they had already contracted the virus. I'd expect a lot more deaths in the coming weeks as symptoms start developing. When I said the 'death rate' I meant the 'death rate' the proportion / percentage of deaths per positive test. Of course the total deaths will rise massively. People have been saying the death rate is higher in the UK than other countries, but of course it will be if the only people you test are those who end up in hospital.
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Post by crapslinger on Mar 19, 2020 8:13:19 GMT
No new cases reported in China. But do we believe any news coming from China ?
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Post by elystokie on Mar 19, 2020 8:16:54 GMT
It sounds a bit dodgy but generally Germans are alot more disciplined than English people and will take this far more seriously. I think alot of English people have not grasped the seriousness of this even now. I've picked this up from work colleagues, very casual about the whole thing tbh I can imagine in Germany they will generally abide by Government guidelines much more stringently. This seriousness should have been applied weeks ago though. The difference between the way this emergency has been treated here and the way it was reacted to in Barcelona last weekend when we were there has been nothing short of astounding.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Mar 19, 2020 8:16:55 GMT
30 days asymptomatic incubation? Ie They already had it? Hence why I asked the question Seymour, isn't the advice that it is actually 14 days? It is. Seven if you live on your own I believe. I'm in speculation territory here but the conventional wisdom is that most people who have communicable virus's are infectious before they show symptoms. I guess we will see in Italy if the rate of new cases slows dramatically after 4-6 weeks of lockdown.
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