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Post by yeokel on Oct 28, 2020 16:30:47 GMT
After my post above I'm now interested if all the people who agree with him are all retweeting the same people. I suppose radicalisation can take many forms. I mean tweets like this would be perfect for building trust with like minded people because the emotion it carries. No offence by the way, you post a lot of interesting stuff.Don't encourage him He's a perfect example of your radicalisation theory. He's latched on to certain ideas and then searches for and repeats anything which confirms his belief and ignores challenges which question or criticise his belief and confirmation bias system. He rarely posts an opinion of his own, only those of others. The usual exception to this rule is that he often informs people they are idiots, morons, etc.
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Post by Gary Hackett on Oct 28, 2020 16:31:44 GMT
Cases down from this day last week. Hopefully the start of that being a trend. There's nothing hopeful about those numbers.
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Post by Davef on Oct 28, 2020 16:33:07 GMT
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 28, 2020 16:37:59 GMT
Cases down from this day last week. Hopefully the start of that being a trend. There's nothing hopeful about those numbers. Exactly mate,straw clutching at its best there
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Post by Gary Hackett on Oct 28, 2020 16:39:38 GMT
You can still infect other people if you've got covid when you're asymptomatic. So it's not bullshit at all.
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Post by Davef on Oct 28, 2020 16:45:29 GMT
You can still infect other people if you've got covid when you're asymptomatic. So it's not bullshit at all. Two weeks after your first positive test? Assuming that it's not a false positive (and Ronaldo's latest test almost certainly is) it's extremely unlikely that you're infectious.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 28, 2020 16:53:15 GMT
Cases down from this day last week. Hopefully the start of that being a trend. There's nothing hopeful about those numbers. There really, really is mate. For the last 8 weeks, the average percentage increase for the 7 day rolling average in England has been around 30%, for the last 7 days it is at 12%, that's the lowest percentage increase since August. Of course, absolutely no reason to be getting the bunting out and the figures are still way too high but it is at least reason to be 'hopeful' that the rate of increase is beginning to slow.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 28, 2020 16:56:27 GMT
Cases down from this day last week. Hopefully the start of that being a trend. There's nothing hopeful about those numbers. Of course there is. We're told it's out of control etc and it isn't. Cases are stabilising, hopefully falling, deaths will follow.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 28, 2020 16:57:13 GMT
Chances are his circle of friends are all involved in it too which would make it harder to break away. I was trying to think how easy it would be to radicalise someone. You would start with something people have in common to start like Brexit for instance and then after a few years of it not going anywhere that anger could easily be used. 1st you would build up a base of people all interested and angry about that particular topic. They all agree with eachother keep retweeting messages as they all have a link to eachother and before they know it they are part of group all on the same page and have now built up some form of trust. Once your in that position you can slowly change topic slightly and lead people on the same path. I look at people like Carl Heneghan for instance and look at people who are supportive of his views and most of them will be retweeting views from all the same people. I'm not saying he is radicalising people at all but you can imagine how easy it could be to channel that anger and manipulate a pool of people all with the same line of thinking once that trust has been built. Carl Heneghan is a professor of evidence based medicine at Oxford University. Is he correct about everything? Probably not, but do you think he won this role in a competition? We need more people like him to add balance to the narrative. We're seeing accomplished scientists having their views censored on social media and elsewhere because they have an opinion than differs from the WHO's (whose head isn't exactly Mahatma Ghandi or Martin Kuther King). If you think that's a healthy state of affairs then good luck to you. All I was saying is many of the tweets on his posts are from people who tend to all be behind his theory and many retweet the same people who follow that same theory. I could probably have used Bob geldof and found the same pattern and many other people. My point was more that people build up a circle of information they get from the same sources and it wouldn't be hard for someone to manipulate that for personal gain.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 28, 2020 17:04:01 GMT
Chances are his circle of friends are all involved in it too which would make it harder to break away. I was trying to think how easy it would be to radicalise someone. You would start with something people have in common to start like Brexit for instance and then after a few years of it not going anywhere that anger could easily be used. 1st you would build up a base of people all interested and angry about that particular topic. They all agree with eachother keep retweeting messages as they all have a link to eachother and before they know it they are part of group all on the same page and have now built up some form of trust. Once your in that position you can slowly change topic slightly and lead people on the same path. I look at people like Carl Heneghan for instance and look at people who are supportive of his views and most of them will be retweeting views from all the same people. I'm not saying he is radicalising people at all but you can imagine how easy it could be to channel that anger and manipulate a pool of people all with the same line of thinking once that trust has been built. Carl Heneghan is a professor of evidence based medicine at Oxford University. Is he correct about everything? Probably not, but do you think he won this role in a competition? We need more people like him to add balance to the narrative. We're seeing accomplished scientists having their views censored on social media and elsewhere because they have an opinion than differs from the WHO's (whose head isn't exactly Mahatma Ghandi or Martin Kuther King). If you think that's a healthy state of affairs then good luck to you. Personally I wouldn't put Carl Heneghan in the QAnon camp but there are quite a few knowledgeable and credible people bypassing the usual channels of academic debate and using social media to float speculative views that haven't been properly peer reviewed and verified and people are jumping on these as proof of their preconceived views on how Covid should be handled. The question for me is why are they doing this? My fear is they are doing it for self publicity purposes rather than bravely challenging the official line as they claim and I don't think they understand how there views may be being used or interpreted. I don't think Carl Heneghan is deliberately sucking people into the conspiracy theory camp but there are people who will use what Heneghan is saying to do just that. I definitely do not agree with censorship and if the government is indulging in this they are idiots because it just gives credence to the conspiracy theorists view that people are being manipulated. Belief in conspiracy theories has gone through the roof since Covid and dubious theories about Covid are being used as a gateway into a much darker and dangerous set of interconnected beliefs. The whole thing has the hallmarks of a religious cult - the people who get sucked in lose touch with friends and family and end up In a mental state that is completely disconnected from the real world - to all intent and purpose they are insane. I am genuinely worried that some posters on here are heading in that direction or are already there.
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Post by Huddysleftfoot on Oct 28, 2020 17:06:17 GMT
I’m currently in a taxi. Three of us like sardines in the back. Our 4th mate wasn’t allowed in the front Who the fuck makes up these rules Ah but the real thing we want to know ... are you still defiantly leading the revolt and are you still refusing to wear a mask? 😁🤦 I think he's still struggling with fact that the rules that upset him so much were forced on him by the tit he voted for. Irony klaxon.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 28, 2020 17:06:56 GMT
Cases down from this day last week. Hopefully the start of that being a trend. What do the number of cases actually mean? We don't know how many people are tested or how many times. All the data around cases is really sketchy. Are they testing less people. The more you test the more cases you find the less you test the less cases you find. The things that don't change are the number of people who are admitted to hospital and the number of deaths. To me the more the hospital admissions and deaths are rising daily the more cases there are out there. When they come down then cases are coming down because there isn't enough data surrounding cases which mean anything else.
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Post by Northy on Oct 28, 2020 17:08:32 GMT
So they were calling people who may have been in contact with somebody who maybe infected, to calling people who have been in contact with somebody who is infected, and that's a headline story, or am I missing something here ? What do you need this highly skilled NHS clinician for to call somebody ?
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Post by Northy on Oct 28, 2020 17:14:23 GMT
You can still infect other people if you've got covid when you're asymptomatic. So it's not bullshit at all. Two weeks after your first positive test? Assuming that it's not a false positive (and Ronaldo's latest test almost certainly is) it's extremely unlikely that you're infectious. Should have had a blood test like Shaqiri did.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 28, 2020 17:15:56 GMT
After my post above I'm now interested if all the people who agree with him are all retweeting the same people. I suppose radicalisation can take many forms. I mean tweets like this would be perfect for building trust with like minded people because the emotion it carries. No offence by the way, you post a lot of interesting stuff.Don't encourage him He's a perfect example of your radicalisation theory. He's latched on to certain ideas and then searches for and repeats anything which confirms his belief and ignores challenges which question or criticise his belief and confirmation bias system. He rarely posts an opinion of his own, only those of others. The usual exception to this rule is that he often informs people they are idiots, morons, etc. I'm all for a range of views and like in the radicalisation theory we shouldn't just completely ignore parts we don't like because then your falling into the trap of only listening to what you want to hear. We should question everything and look at all different sources of information to try and get the facts. Truth should matter and it's often ignored if it suits somebody's agenda and it's wrong.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 28, 2020 17:17:08 GMT
Carl Heneghan is a professor of evidence based medicine at Oxford University. Is he correct about everything? Probably not, but do you think he won this role in a competition? We need more people like him to add balance to the narrative. We're seeing accomplished scientists having their views censored on social media and elsewhere because they have an opinion than differs from the WHO's (whose head isn't exactly Mahatma Ghandi or Martin Kuther King). If you think that's a healthy state of affairs then good luck to you. Personally I wouldn't put Carl Heneghan in the QAnon camp but there are quite a few knowledgeable and credible people bypassing the usual channels of academic debate and using social media to float speculative views that haven't been properly peer reviewed and verified and people are jumping on these as proof of their preconceived views on how Covid should be handled. The question for me is why are they doing this? My fear is they are doing it for self publicity purposes rather than bravely challenging the official line as they claim and I don't think they understand how there views may be being used or interpreted. I don't think Carl Heneghan is deliberately sucking people into the conspiracy theory camp but there are people who will use what Heneghan is saying to do just that. I definitely do not agree with censorship and if the government is indulging in this they are idiots because it just gives credence to the conspiracy theorists view that people are being manipulated. Belief in conspiracy theories has gone through the roof since Covid and dubious theories about Covid are being used as a gateway into a much darker and dangerous set of interconnected beliefs. The whole thing has the hallmarks of a religious cult - the people who get sucked in lose touch with friends and family and end up In a mental state that is completely disconnected from the real world - to all intent and purpose they are insane. I am genuinely worried that some posters on here are heading in that direction or are already there. Sadly many people do. Indeed they put anybody who doesn't back the official narrative into such a camp, meaning that a lot of eminent scientists and professors with alternative opinions are being shouted down, as people don't even consider what it is they have to say. That's surely a big loss to the discussion. And of course, we can't have censorship, so I guess all we can do individually, is try our best to navigate these waters, meaning that unfortunately, there will be a lot of nonsensical conspiracy theories that raise their ugly heads, which will sadly flower in the void left by a lot of the missing data which we should be seeing from the government at this time.
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Post by Davef on Oct 28, 2020 17:21:08 GMT
There's nothing hopeful about those numbers. There really, really is mate. For the last 8 weeks, the average percentage increase for the 7 day rolling average in England has been around 30%, for the last 7 days it is at 12%, that's the lowest percentage increase since August. Of course, absolutely no reason to be getting the bunting out and the figures are still way too high but it is at least reason to be 'hopeful' that the rate of increase is beginning to slow. I'm not sure if you've noticed Paul, but the Pillar 1 testing capacity has risen by 50,000 over the past couple days, which is testing in hospital settings. There's also a trend going round on Twitter at the moment entitled #filmyourtestingcentre, where people are encouraged to take videos of local Pillar 2 testing facilities. Most of them appear to be empty with officials standing around not doing much. I'm not quite sure what to make of that to be honest, though I have walked past the testing centre at Newcastle a few times recently myself and not seen much sign of life.
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Post by Gary Hackett on Oct 28, 2020 17:24:23 GMT
There's nothing hopeful about those numbers. There really, really is mate. For the last 8 weeks, the average percentage increase for the 7 day rolling average in England has been around 30%, for the last 7 days it is at 12%, that's the lowest percentage increase since August. Of course, absolutely no reason to be getting the bunting out and the figures are still way too high but it is at least reason to be 'hopeful' that the rate of increase is beginning to slow. You were only telling me a couple of weeks ago that case numbers are irrelevant
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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 28, 2020 17:35:53 GMT
Cases down from this day last week. Hopefully the start of that being a trend. What do the number of cases actually mean? We don't know how many people are tested or how many times. All the data around cases is really sketchy. Are they testing less people. The more you test the more cases you find the less you test the less cases you find. The things that don't change are the number of people who are admitted to hospital and the number of deaths. To me the more the hospital admissions and deaths are rising daily the more cases there are out there. When they come down then cases are coming down because there isn't enough data surrounding cases which mean anything else. Admissions and deaths lags the cases. Again pretty standard from before. Get the cases down and the others will go down. It’s certainly not the doomsday out of control scenario the govt keep saying.
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 28, 2020 17:36:51 GMT
Merkel saying that 75% of cases in Germany are now untraceable. If their contact tracing system can't keep up, you'd have thought ours was next to useless now.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 28, 2020 17:36:55 GMT
Cases down from this day last week. Hopefully the start of that being a trend. What do the number of cases actually mean? We don't know how many people are tested or how many times. All the data around cases is really sketchy. Are they testing less people. The more you test the more cases you find the less you test the less cases you find. The things that don't change are the number of people who are admitted to hospital and the number of deaths. To me the more the hospital admissions and deaths are rising daily the more cases there are out there. When they come down then cases are coming down because there isn't enough data surrounding cases which mean anything else. All of the data is sketchy, that's what makes it so hard to develop a true understanding of what is going on. You said that the things that don't change are the number of people who are admitted to hospital and the number of deaths but even those figures don't mean a whole lot without any context. What percentage of the people being admitted to hospitals are coming from care homes? If it's a substantial percentage, then is having a lockdown going to help with that? What percentage of the people in hospitals 'with' Covid were admitted with something else but caught it in hospital. If it's a substantial percentage, then is having a lockdown going to help with that? What percentage of the people in hospitals 'with' Covid were admitted for something else entirely but only realised they 'had' it when they were routinely tested for it on admittance and aren't actually sick from Covid at all? What number of people would ordinarily be in hospital with respiratory illnesses at this time of year and how does that compare to previous years, is the number much different and if it isn't, is there a good possibility that the people in hospital with Covid now, would have been in hospital with another type of respiratory illness anyway? And the same question applies to deaths, how many people at this time of year would ordinarily die in hospital form a respiratory illness, is the figure much different at the moment? And finally ... on average 1600 people a day die in hospital, has that figure significantly changed and also, if you die in hospital from cancer, or a heart attack, or pneumonia etc. and you have tested positive for Covid are you then included in the Covid death figures? Without answers to all these questions, then I think it's extremely hard to develop a considered opinion on what is happening.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 28, 2020 17:41:53 GMT
There really, really is mate. For the last 8 weeks, the average percentage increase for the 7 day rolling average in England has been around 30%, for the last 7 days it is at 12%, that's the lowest percentage increase since August. Of course, absolutely no reason to be getting the bunting out and the figures are still way too high but it is at least reason to be 'hopeful' that the rate of increase is beginning to slow. You were only telling me a couple of weeks ago that case numbers are irrelevant They largely are without the supporting data that I've wined on about not having lots of times. But don't tell me you're actually disappointed that the rate is slowing, that can only be a good thing can't it and at least give us some hope? The rate has been decreasing over the last three weeks, let's hope this continues next week as well ... as I said it's way too early to see it as a trend but it's better than it increasing, surely.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 28, 2020 17:48:37 GMT
What do the number of cases actually mean? We don't know how many people are tested or how many times. All the data around cases is really sketchy. Are they testing less people. The more you test the more cases you find the less you test the less cases you find. The things that don't change are the number of people who are admitted to hospital and the number of deaths. To me the more the hospital admissions and deaths are rising daily the more cases there are out there. When they come down then cases are coming down because there isn't enough data surrounding cases which mean anything else. Admissions and deaths lags the cases. Again pretty standard from before. Get the cases down and the others will go down. It’s certainly not the doomsday out of control scenario the govt keep saying. We don't know what the cases mean though do we or how they are counted. The government aren't releasing the data people want purposely because testing is likely to still not be that good. They could be triple testing people twice for all we know. The data isn't there because the government are holding it back so the only meaningful numbers are the number of people in hospitals, the number of beds still available, the rate at which beds are being taken up and deaths.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 28, 2020 17:57:07 GMT
There really, really is mate. For the last 8 weeks, the average percentage increase for the 7 day rolling average in England has been around 30%, for the last 7 days it is at 12%, that's the lowest percentage increase since August. Of course, absolutely no reason to be getting the bunting out and the figures are still way too high but it is at least reason to be 'hopeful' that the rate of increase is beginning to slow. I'm not sure if you've noticed Paul, but the Pillar 1 testing capacity has risen by 50,000 over the past couple days, which is testing in hospital settings. There's also a trend going round on Twitter at the moment entitled #filmyourtestingcentre, where people are encouraged to take videos of local Pillar 2 testing facilities. Most of them appear to be empty with officials standing around not doing much. I'm not quite sure what to make of that to be honest, though I have walked past the testing centre at Newcastle a few times recently myself and not seen much sign of life. Yes I've seen a few videos of empty testing centres but not really looked into it because that would then mean I'm buying into a conspiracy theory that the government are just making the figures up, which I certainly don't believe. There probably are empty testing centres around but equally there surely has to be others that are bursting at the seams. I'm not even sure how difficult it is to get a test anymore.
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Post by Gary Hackett on Oct 28, 2020 17:58:30 GMT
You were only telling me a couple of weeks ago that case numbers are irrelevant They largely are without the supporting data that I've wined on about not having lots of times. But don't tell me you're actually disappointed that the rate is slowing, that can only be a good thing can't it and at least give us some hope? The rate has been decreasing over the last three weeks, let's hope this continues next week as well ... as I said it's way too early to see it as a trend but it's better than it increasing, surely. I think it'll take more than the infection rate slowing a bit to make me more hopeful Paul. If it just carries on as it is ( still increasing but slower) I'd expect deaths to be around the 500 mark very soon. EDIT : Cases per 100k have gone up from 200 to 310 in the last week in Stoke on Trent and staffordshire as a whole is having similar increases. Cases are slowing a little where you are though in Cheshire East
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 28, 2020 18:23:57 GMT
They largely are without the supporting data that I've wined on about not having lots of times. But don't tell me you're actually disappointed that the rate is slowing, that can only be a good thing can't it and at least give us some hope? The rate has been decreasing over the last three weeks, let's hope this continues next week as well ... as I said it's way too early to see it as a trend but it's better than it increasing, surely. I think it'll take more than the infection rate slowing a bit to make me more hopeful Paul. If it just carries on as it is ( still increasing but slower) I'd expect deaths to be around the 500 mark very soon. EDIT : Cases per 100k have gone up from 200 to 310 in the last week in Stoke on Trent and staffordshire as a whole is having similar increases. Cases are slowing a little where you are though in Cheshire East I don't think there's any chance of the death rate slowing down for quite a while yet mate, obviously there's a lag from cases slowing (or falling). It's been pretty steadily increasing at around 34% for the last 6 weeks and if that continues, then we'll be getting to 500 around the 20th November, let's hope it doesn't and that's a worst case estimate. But even if it is, how many people ordinarily die of respiratory illnesses at this time of year and has the number gone up due to Covid? I don't know.
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Post by starkiller on Oct 28, 2020 18:29:15 GMT
If it's any consolation there are others living in and promoting your "real" world - see here. The problem is it isn't real - it's actually detached from reality. It's really sad to see people get sucked into this as the video points out and I sincerely hope you see sense and get out before you are too far gone - because there comes a point where there's no way back. Chances are his circle of friends are all involved in it too which would make it harder to break away. I was trying to think how easy it would be to radicalise someone. You would start with something people have in common to start like Brexit for instance and then after a few years of it not going anywhere that anger could easily be used. 1st you would build up a base of people all interested and angry about that particular topic. They all agree with eachother keep retweeting messages as they all have a link to eachother and before they know it they are part of group all on the same page and have now built up some form of trust. Once your in that position you can slowly change topic slightly and lead people on the same path. I look at people like Carl Heneghan for instance and look at people who are supportive of his views and most of them will be retweeting views from all the same people. I'm not saying he is radicalising people at all but you can imagine how easy it could be to channel that anger and manipulate a pool of people all with the same line of thinking once that trust has been built. More condescending Poundland psychoanalysis. You're caricaturing mate. And pathetic and embarrassing it is. You can congratulate yourself on your deep perceptions. None of which are true, by the way. Using my psychoanalysis you're using techniques to keep people in line and win approval from the crowd. If you think it's acceptable for your life to disappear down the shitter over something as deadly as flu, and which is flu in many cases, fair enough. But there's people dying at home, people with life threatening illness getting no treatment, people losing their livelihoods, businesses, life-savings, marriage, not seeing their families. Your view will be minority before too long, if this continues.
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 28, 2020 18:34:01 GMT
I think it'll take more than the infection rate slowing a bit to make me more hopeful Paul. If it just carries on as it is ( still increasing but slower) I'd expect deaths to be around the 500 mark very soon. EDIT : Cases per 100k have gone up from 200 to 310 in the last week in Stoke on Trent and staffordshire as a whole is having similar increases. Cases are slowing a little where you are though in Cheshire East I don't think there's any chance of the death rate slowing down for quite a while yet mate, obviously there's a lag from cases slowing (or falling). It's been pretty steadily increasing at around 34% for the last 6 weeks and if that continues, then we'll be getting to 500 around the 20th November, let's hope it doesn't and that's a worst case estimate. But even if it is, how many people ordinarily die of respiratory illnesses at this time of year and has the number gone up due to Covid? I don't know. This is the key thing for me. Where are we at compared to a normal autumn/winter? I.e what rate do hospitalisations and deaths usually increase at this time of year. Im surprised someone hasn't provided a comparison graph on this as it'd clearly show whether we have a problem or not. The only thing we really know right now is that this isn't an exponential, out of control rise like in March but this doesn't mean a slow burn couldnt still eventually overwhelm us.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 28, 2020 18:36:41 GMT
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 28, 2020 18:40:20 GMT
What do the number of cases actually mean? We don't know how many people are tested or how many times. All the data around cases is really sketchy. Are they testing less people. The more you test the more cases you find the less you test the less cases you find. The things that don't change are the number of people who are admitted to hospital and the number of deaths. To me the more the hospital admissions and deaths are rising daily the more cases there are out there. When they come down then cases are coming down because there isn't enough data surrounding cases which mean anything else. All of the data is sketchy, that's what makes it so hard to develop a true understanding of what is going on. You said that the things that don't change are the number of people who are admitted to hospital and the number of deaths but even those figures don't mean a whole lot without any context. What percentage of the people being admitted to hospitals are coming from care homes? If it's a substantial percentage, then is having a lockdown going to help with that? What percentage of the people in hospitals 'with' Covid were admitted with something else but caught it in hospital. If it's a substantial percentage, then is having a lockdown going to help with that? What percentage of the people in hospitals 'with' Covid were admitted for something else entirely but only realised they 'had' it when they were routinely tested for it on admittance and aren't actually sick from Covid at all? What number of people would ordinarily be in hospital with respiratory illnesses at this time of year and how does that compare to previous years, is the number much different and if it isn't, is there a good possibility that the people in hospital with Covid now, would have been in hospital with another type of respiratory illness anyway? And the same question applies to deaths, how many people at this time of year would ordinarily die in hospital form a respiratory illness, is the figure much different at the moment? And finally ... on average 1600 people a day die in hospital, has that figure significantly changed and also, if you die in hospital from cancer, or a heart attack, or pneumonia etc. and you have tested positive for Covid are you then included in the Covid death figures? Without answers to all these questions, then I think it's extremely hard to develop a considered opinion on what is happening. My father in law has just been to hospital with a chest infection, released and now isolating for 14 days because he was exposed to someone who tested positive for Covid. If he gets Covid it will kill him because he has too many underlying conditions. He is back at home now so depending on how that evolves I can understand where your coming from and is it being seeded back into care homes is another good question. There are so many factors and so many different theories which may be true. You make some very good points but that information is not likely to be released until a full investigation has taken place even though it should be made available sooner. How the virus is spreading is highly important as it will help people change their habits to suit. We could ask how many deaths are being classed as pneumonia or heart attack or stroke when they were killed by Covid, some of the data can swing both ways. Is the 28 day cut off a cover up for the shit job the government has done. The average number of respiratory deaths for this time of year might be important but I'm not quite sure what it would mean when we have many restrictions which should distort much of that information this not being a normal year. Where are we with the 1600 a day so far? Do we go from march to march to get the true impact of Covid? Until we get through as full year of Covid then we won't know yet. A year with Covid is going to be more accurate. We haven't seen through the worse months for deaths with Covid yet and already excess deaths are high.
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