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Post by partickpotter on Oct 19, 2020 7:11:56 GMT
Infection rates are used as an indicator for future hospital admissions (and of course deaths). The problem is twofold - first we don’t know the correlation between infection rates and hospitalisation rates (it’s not possible to know) and second if we wait to act on increased hospitalisation we will have waited too long. That said, the actions being taken need much more scrutiny on two levels... 1) that they make any difference and 2) that they don’t cause other problems that are worse than what they are looking to fix. I’ve seen nothing from anyone looking at the above seriously. This is the road I’d hoped Starmer was heading down when asking for the evidence supporting 10pm curfews. Instead he’s gone down the route of “following the science” as if “the science” is giving a clear and complete answer (which it isn’t). (Don’t get me (re)started on Burnham’s self aggrandising posturing - he can fuck off). Andy Burnham always looks like he has a plastic face to me. In my imagination he has a box full of facial features, like Mr Potato Head, which he applies as appropriate before any interview. Doleful eyes and furrowed brow have been seeing a lot of use the last few weeks. Don’t forget his new “man of the Mancs” anorak look. He used to be a scouser, but he’s all right now. His conversion reminds me of Kevin the teenager; he tried to talk like Liam, Burnham has opted to dress like him.
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Post by Davef on Oct 19, 2020 7:13:33 GMT
So what evidence does the wanker have for 6.00pm closing if he can't supply any for 10.00pm?
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 19, 2020 7:19:33 GMT
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-fullSo much conflicting information going around. Cases and positive tests mean nothing when people are double or triple counted, hospital admissions and number of people in hospitals should be the best gauge of where we are but then you see articles like this and you think to yourself why is Burnham and other Tories questioning further restrictions when it looks like they should be implemented immediately and fight for funds later. It just constant mixed messages. The article itself is a good example of mixed messages. It suggested that Greater Manchester’s hospitals are quickly heading towards being overwhelmed by the sheer number of people with Covid needing emergency care to save their lives, in the same way that those in Liverpool have become in recent weeks. By Friday 211 of the 257 critical care beds in Greater Manchester – 82% of the total supply – were already being used for either those with Covid or people who were critically ill because of another illness.There further on in the article: A spokesperson for the NHS in Greater Manchester said: “We are monitoring the situation with our hospital admissions, overall beds and ICU beds very, very closely. It’s not unusual for 80-85% of ICU beds to be in use at this time of year and our hospitals work together if there are particular pressures in any one area, to ensure the best care for patients who need the high level of support ICU provides, both for Covid and for other reasons.which suggests 82% occupancy is a perfect normal level for this time of year. So which one is it?
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Oct 19, 2020 7:19:37 GMT
So what evidence does the wanker have for 6.00pm closing if he can't supply any for 10.00pm? Yes I’d love to know🤔
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Post by salopstick on Oct 19, 2020 7:39:04 GMT
The only thing to appear working against cutting numbers was closure of schools and the summer
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Post by partickpotter on Oct 19, 2020 7:46:17 GMT
The only thing to appear working against cutting numbers was closure of schools and the summer Bring back summer.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 19, 2020 7:53:26 GMT
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-fullSo much conflicting information going around. Cases and positive tests mean nothing when people are double or triple counted, hospital admissions and number of people in hospitals should be the best gauge of where we are but then you see articles like this and you think to yourself why is Burnham and other Tories questioning further restrictions when it looks like they should be implemented immediately and fight for funds later. It just constant mixed messages. The article itself is a good example of mixed messages. It suggested that Greater Manchester’s hospitals are quickly heading towards being overwhelmed by the sheer number of people with Covid needing emergency care to save their lives, in the same way that those in Liverpool have become in recent weeks. By Friday 211 of the 257 critical care beds in Greater Manchester – 82% of the total supply – were already being used for either those with Covid or people who were critically ill because of another illness.There further on in the article: A spokesperson for the NHS in Greater Manchester said: “We are monitoring the situation with our hospital admissions, overall beds and ICU beds very, very closely. It’s not unusual for 80-85% of ICU beds to be in use at this time of year and our hospitals work together if there are particular pressures in any one area, to ensure the best care for patients who need the high level of support ICU provides, both for Covid and for other reasons.which suggests 82% occupancy is a perfect normal level for this time of year. So which one is it? If we are reaching those levels whilst so many measures are in place then it's not normal. Many other diseases have been surpressed and it just goes to show how quickly Covid can spread. If everything else was given a free reign then we would be way above those levels.
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Post by Davef on Oct 19, 2020 7:54:52 GMT
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-fullSo much conflicting information going around. Cases and positive tests mean nothing when people are double or triple counted, hospital admissions and number of people in hospitals should be the best gauge of where we are but then you see articles like this and you think to yourself why is Burnham and other Tories questioning further restrictions when it looks like they should be implemented immediately and fight for funds later. It just constant mixed messages. The article itself is a good example of mixed messages. It suggested that Greater Manchester’s hospitals are quickly heading towards being overwhelmed by the sheer number of people with Covid needing emergency care to save their lives, in the same way that those in Liverpool have become in recent weeks. By Friday 211 of the 257 critical care beds in Greater Manchester – 82% of the total supply – were already being used for either those with Covid or people who were critically ill because of another illness.There further on in the article: A spokesperson for the NHS in Greater Manchester said: “We are monitoring the situation with our hospital admissions, overall beds and ICU beds very, very closely. It’s not unusual for 80-85% of ICU beds to be in use at this time of year and our hospitals work together if there are particular pressures in any one area, to ensure the best care for patients who need the high level of support ICU provides, both for Covid and for other reasons.which suggests 82% occupancy is a perfect normal level for this time of year. So which one is it?
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 19, 2020 8:05:55 GMT
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/18/revealed-some-manchester-area-hospitals-already-fullSo much conflicting information going around. Cases and positive tests mean nothing when people are double or triple counted, hospital admissions and number of people in hospitals should be the best gauge of where we are but then you see articles like this and you think to yourself why is Burnham and other Tories questioning further restrictions when it looks like they should be implemented immediately and fight for funds later. It just constant mixed messages. Pandemic summed up in a nutshell. That's what happens when people with agendas want to be proved right rather than looking at what has actually worked in other countries. The countries that have done best hit the virus hard and early and kept on top of it with an effective test track and trace. We are nowhere near that because our levels have always been too high for it to work as it should. We should have locked down at the back end of summer to put us in a position of strength and be able to better manage the situation. Nobody knows the government plan, they just seem to be making it up as they go hoping something they do works. They will look so stupid if they are forced into a lockdown over winter as it will be much longer than it needed to be. It makes you wonder if the test track and trace ain't as good as they make out as it is the key to success with this virus.
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Post by Davef on Oct 19, 2020 8:11:38 GMT
Pandemic summed up in a nutshell. That's what happens when people with agendas want to be proved right rather than looking at what has actually worked in other countries. The countries that have done best hit the virus hard and early and kept on top of it with an effective test track and trace. We are nowhere near that because our levels have always been too high for it to work as it should. We should have locked down at the back end of summer to put us in a position of strength and be able to better manage the situation. Nobody knows the government plan, they just seem to be making it up as they go hoping something they do works. They will look so stupid if they are forced into a lockdown over winter as it will be much longer than it needed to be. It makes you wonder if the test track and trace ain't as good as they make out as it is the key to success with this virus. What would locking down at the back end of summer have achieved? The numbers are now proven to be inflated by schools and universities re-opening. When do you suggest they should have kicked in?
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 19, 2020 8:12:10 GMT
The article itself is a good example of mixed messages. It suggested that Greater Manchester’s hospitals are quickly heading towards being overwhelmed by the sheer number of people with Covid needing emergency care to save their lives, in the same way that those in Liverpool have become in recent weeks. By Friday 211 of the 257 critical care beds in Greater Manchester – 82% of the total supply – were already being used for either those with Covid or people who were critically ill because of another illness.There further on in the article: A spokesperson for the NHS in Greater Manchester said: “We are monitoring the situation with our hospital admissions, overall beds and ICU beds very, very closely. It’s not unusual for 80-85% of ICU beds to be in use at this time of year and our hospitals work together if there are particular pressures in any one area, to ensure the best care for patients who need the high level of support ICU provides, both for Covid and for other reasons.which suggests 82% occupancy is a perfect normal level for this time of year. So which one is it? If we are reaching those levels whilst so many measures are in place then it's not normal. Many other diseases have been surpressed and it just goes to show how quickly Covid can spread. If everything else was given a free reign then we would be way above those levels. Hard to tell though isn't it as they haven't provided a break down of patients who are actually seriously ill with Covid, those who just have Covid and happen to be in ICU and those who are suffering from something completely unrelated. It might be suppressing other diseases but you'll still have the usual serious accidents, heart attacks, strokes etc taking place.
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Post by davejohnno1 on Oct 19, 2020 8:16:10 GMT
There are quite a few examples of people receiving positive tests when they have never actually been tested.
🤷♂️🤦♂️
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Post by Davef on Oct 19, 2020 8:20:52 GMT
There are quite a few examples of people receiving positive tests when they have never actually been tested. 🤷♂️🤦♂️ I've seen that on social media quite a bit. I'm not convinced though, think it's probably urban myth stuff. I stand to be corrected though.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 19, 2020 8:23:34 GMT
That's what happens when people with agendas want to be proved right rather than looking at what has actually worked in other countries. The countries that have done best hit the virus hard and early and kept on top of it with an effective test track and trace. We are nowhere near that because our levels have always been too high for it to work as it should. We should have locked down at the back end of summer to put us in a position of strength and be able to better manage the situation. Nobody knows the government plan, they just seem to be making it up as they go hoping something they do works. They will look so stupid if they are forced into a lockdown over winter as it will be much longer than it needed to be. It makes you wonder if the test track and trace ain't as good as they make out as it is the key to success with this virus. What would locking down at the back end of summer have achieved? The numbers are now proven to be inflated by schools and universities re-opening. When do you suggest they should have kicked in? That was when cases within the community were at there lowest so the lockdown would have been a lot shorter and been much more effective and would have given test track and trace a solid foundation to work from to keep numbers right down. We had the chance to get the R rate right down to very low levels within a few weeks, now it would take much longer so would require a longer lockdown to get it back to manageable levels. The virus will spread much slower than earlier in the year because of all the measures taken by people and businesses which weren't in place back then. We missed a trick not taking advantage of the summer.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 19, 2020 8:37:27 GMT
If we are reaching those levels whilst so many measures are in place then it's not normal. Many other diseases have been surpressed and it just goes to show how quickly Covid can spread. If everything else was given a free reign then we would be way above those levels. Hard to tell though isn't it as they haven't provided a break down of patients who are actually seriously ill with Covid, those who just have Covid and happen to be in ICU and those who are suffering from something completely unrelated. It might be suppressing other diseases but you'll still have the usual serious accidents, heart attacks, strokes etc taking place. Covid can cause many other conditions or with the 28 day cut off play a part in many types of deaths like strokes and heart attacks. I don't know if there is a breakdown available anywhere but it would be useful.
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Post by rorymscfc on Oct 19, 2020 8:41:30 GMT
The problem with Test & Trace in its current form is twofold
1. The numbers are too high - 16000 people plus all their contacts is just way too many people to contact on a daily basis.
2. The tests aren’t being turned around quickly enough so by the time people are contacted they’ve been circulating in society for up to a week.
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Post by terryconroysmagic on Oct 19, 2020 8:46:21 GMT
The article itself is a good example of mixed messages. It suggested that Greater Manchester’s hospitals are quickly heading towards being overwhelmed by the sheer number of people with Covid needing emergency care to save their lives, in the same way that those in Liverpool have become in recent weeks. By Friday 211 of the 257 critical care beds in Greater Manchester – 82% of the total supply – were already being used for either those with Covid or people who were critically ill because of another illness.There further on in the article: A spokesperson for the NHS in Greater Manchester said: “We are monitoring the situation with our hospital admissions, overall beds and ICU beds very, very closely. It’s not unusual for 80-85% of ICU beds to be in use at this time of year and our hospitals work together if there are particular pressures in any one area, to ensure the best care for patients who need the high level of support ICU provides, both for Covid and for other reasons.which suggests 82% occupancy is a perfect normal level for this time of year. So which one is it? If we are reaching those levels whilst so many measures are in place then it's not normal. Many other diseases have been surpressed and it just goes to show how quickly Covid can spread. If everything else was given a free reign then we would be way above those levels. What other diseases are being suppressed?
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 19, 2020 8:50:46 GMT
The problem with Test & Trace in its current form is twofold 1. The numbers are too high - 16000 people plus all their contacts is just way too many people to contact on a daily basis. 2. The tests aren’t being turned around quickly enough so by the time people are contacted they’ve been circulating in society for up to a week. If it had a lower number of cases to work with it would have more time to iron out any issues, the problem with it is it has been thrown in the deep end.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 19, 2020 8:54:45 GMT
If we are reaching those levels whilst so many measures are in place then it's not normal. Many other diseases have been surpressed and it just goes to show how quickly Covid can spread. If everything else was given a free reign then we would be way above those levels. What other diseases are being suppressed? Flu has been suppressed. There is already proof that a lower viral load helps against it so Hands Face Space will be pretty effective against it, especially as it isn't as infectious as Covid.
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Post by Davef on Oct 19, 2020 9:24:26 GMT
What would locking down at the back end of summer have achieved? The numbers are now proven to be inflated by schools and universities re-opening. When do you suggest they should have kicked in? That was when cases within the community were at there lowest so the lockdown would have been a lot shorter and been much more effective and would have given test track and trace a solid foundation to work from to keep numbers right down. We had the chance to get the R rate right down to very low levels within a few weeks, now it would take much longer so would require a longer lockdown to get it back to manageable levels. The virus will spread much slower than earlier in the year because of all the measures taken by people and businesses which weren't in place back then. We missed a trick not taking advantage of the summer. It's a virus. If it's hitting children and students at the beginning of September (when plenty of measures where in place) then it will then at the beginning of November or whenever they return to their studies.
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Post by davejohnno1 on Oct 19, 2020 9:26:40 GMT
There are quite a few examples of people receiving positive tests when they have never actually been tested. 🤷♂️🤦♂️ I've seen that on social media quite a bit. I'm not convinced though, think it's probably urban myth stuff. I stand to be corrected though. A friend of my wifes went for a test but the site was so badly organised and the queue so big she abandoned mission. 3 days later she received a positive test result. There are numerous stories of that via 1 particular test site near to where I work.
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Post by Davef on Oct 19, 2020 9:27:21 GMT
So what evidence does the wanker have for 6.00pm closing if he can't supply any for 10.00pm? Yes I’d love to know🤔 Track and Trace has revealed that 75% of transmission is happening in home environments as opposed to 5% in hospitality so you have to assume that this moron wants to drive more transmission in homes.
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Post by Davef on Oct 19, 2020 9:28:01 GMT
I've seen that on social media quite a bit. I'm not convinced though, think it's probably urban myth stuff. I stand to be corrected though. A friend of my wifes went for a test but the site was so badly organised and the queue so big she abandoned mission. 3 days later she received a positive test result. There are numerous stories of that via 1 particular test site near to where I work. Fair enough if you know someone personally Dave.
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Post by davejohnno1 on Oct 19, 2020 9:29:23 GMT
Track and Trace has revealed that 75% of transmission is happening in home environments as opposed to 5% in hospitality so you have to assumed that this moron wants to drive more transmission in homes. How do they even ascertain that? Presumably because someone gets the virus from wherever (supermarket, pub, wherever) then transmits it around their household or someone else's household should they enter?
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Post by davejohnno1 on Oct 19, 2020 9:30:09 GMT
A friend of my wifes went for a test but the site was so badly organised and the queue so big she abandoned mission. 3 days later she received a positive test result. There are numerous stories of that via 1 particular test site near to where I work. Fair enough if you know someone personally Dave. I don't know them. It's a gym friend of my wife. Could be bullshit obviously
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Post by salopstick on Oct 19, 2020 9:32:27 GMT
Fair enough if you know someone personally Dave. I don't know them. It's a gym friend of my wife. Could be bullshit obviously Given the total inaccuracies in the reporting I’m prepared to give you the benefit of the doubt
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Post by Davef on Oct 19, 2020 9:38:55 GMT
Track and Trace has revealed that 75% of transmission is happening in home environments as opposed to 5% in hospitality so you have to assumed that this moron wants to drive more transmission in homes. How do they even ascertain that? Presumably because someone gets the virus from wherever (supermarket, pub, wherever) then transmits it around their household or someone else's household should they enter? No idea. It's apparently a world class track and trace system so it must be true.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 19, 2020 9:39:16 GMT
That was when cases within the community were at there lowest so the lockdown would have been a lot shorter and been much more effective and would have given test track and trace a solid foundation to work from to keep numbers right down. We had the chance to get the R rate right down to very low levels within a few weeks, now it would take much longer so would require a longer lockdown to get it back to manageable levels. The virus will spread much slower than earlier in the year because of all the measures taken by people and businesses which weren't in place back then. We missed a trick not taking advantage of the summer. It's a virus. If it's hitting children and students at the beginning of September (when plenty of measures where in place) then it will then at the beginning of November or whenever they return to their studies. If the number of cases is really low then it can't spread as quickly. It might spread in schools but from a very low base test track and trace would have more control over and it wouldn't be nationwide it would have been the odd outbreak.
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 19, 2020 9:46:55 GMT
www.manchester.gov.uk/blog/leadersblog/post/908/covid-16%C2%A0-what-matters-is-what-works - Leader of Manchester City Council's blog Most people who test positive for the virus are not getting particularly ill. They are not the problem. Too many are now getting ill and the number of hospital cases is going up, as is the number of people with Covid in intensive care. That's the problem. I've spent a fair chunk of time over the last week talking to hospital staff about exactly what is going on. The good news is that they expect that now with improved treatment, they don't expect to see anything like the death rate we had back in April and May. The bad news is that if cases continue to rise, they will have to again start cancelling other patients treatments.
They do though know who in the population is, if they catch the virus, most at risk of hospitalisation - older people and people with existing underlying conditions, diabetes, obesity, high-blood pressure, other respiratory illnesses. If this is the evidence, wouldn't it be much better to have an effective shielding programme for those most at risk, rather than have a blanket business closure policy of dubious efficacy. Greater Manchester have estimated the cost of a shielding programme at around £14m a month, less than a fifth of the estimated cost of business closures.This is exactly what should be happening in my opinion. The government of course tried this method back in March but the situation is completely different now and we are far better prepared (or should be).
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Post by davejohnno1 on Oct 19, 2020 9:47:47 GMT
Why would you even go and get tested? It's almost like people want to wear covid like a badge of honour.
If you feel a bit crap, as many do when they get it, just go to bed and avoid other people for a couple of weeks.
Be sensible, protect others and then get on with things.
If you are well enough to go to a test centre, you are well enough not to bother getting tested in first place.
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