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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 1, 2020 10:24:15 GMT
The point is, that the number of 'cases' are largely irrelevant, the only statistic that really matters, are hospital and ICU admissions. France could announce tomorrow that they've had 50,000 new cases in a single day but if their hospital admissions are still in double figures then THAT would potentially be very good news in the weeks to come. What's happening now is a truer picture of where we are in comparison to cases to deaths ratio, but it's the long term effects statistics which we are missing which would help see where we are with this virus. Yes absolutely mate, we won't know the long term effects until much further down the line but in the meantime, if we are indeed a few weeks behind France, then even if our 'case' figures do start hitting 15,000 - 20,000 sometime soon, then there's a very good chance that the number of deaths could still remain quite low.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Oct 1, 2020 10:34:46 GMT
Just goes to show the mental impact this is going to have on our children. So at the end of July we went on holiday to Croatia (its only a 5 hour drive from Milan) but whilst we were there, Croatia was added to the compulsory Covid-19 test. We all had to have this upon return to Milan (2 adults, 2 kids, aged 3 and 7). All returned negative thankfully. Schools obviously started up and we feared the worst when eventually and inevitably sickness kicks in. My 7 year old son came home yesterday with a terrible cough and heavy cold. 37.1 temperature which we are told is 37.6 of a thermal reading machine. He is absolutely distraught at having to do the test AGAIN in such a short period of time. They are very unpleasant things but coupled with the fear of potentially having the virus has scared the boy shitless. I am pretty sure it will just be a seasonal illness but I cannot imagine what this is doing to the young'uns. My missus told me an interesting story from her bosses kids who are no older than 4. They think we've done all this before so are totally fine with it and think we know what we're doing and just go with it. It made me smile tbh.
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Post by salopstick on Oct 1, 2020 10:34:59 GMT
Whatever way you look at it, lockdown and the staggeringly shit management of the NHS has been an utter catastrophe. I mean it basically has given people a death sentance. 1 million women alone have missed breast cancer screenings since March. That's a quite horrifying statistic. All for something that is less likely to get you than 23 other killers where the vast majority of people are completely asymptomatic. Another who keeps talking about this ranking. 24th highest killer? For which period? At the moment? Where did it rank in April where most will have lost their appointments? What other cause of death was killing over 1000 people per day? Covid-19 has killed more than Influenza this year and that is with an upscaled modelling or an estimation if you will, of Influenza deaths. It has the potential to go to triple and quadruple figure deaths again and that is the dangers, you should perhaps stop clinging onto the 20-30 deaths per day of last week. At this stage it is the potential of the virus that is a risk, not the actual or current data. It probably my ranked number 1 in April because every death seemed to be labelled Covid
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Post by adri2008 on Oct 1, 2020 10:37:05 GMT
This currently doesn't seem like an exponential, out of control spread of the virus like that which occurred in March - more a small rise due to children getting back into education. What happens as the weather worsens is another matter of course.
Curfews etc are counter productive in my opinion and should be abandoned. Better that people are in controlled environments in which the rules can be enforced in than encouraging indoor gatherings.
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Post by bgreen13 on Oct 1, 2020 10:38:13 GMT
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Post by benjaminbiscuit on Oct 1, 2020 10:47:12 GMT
It's been estimated that at the time around 100,000 people a day were becoming infected but obviously the vast majority of those were asymptomatic and didn't become even remotely ill. There is every chance that many of the 'cases' that we're seeing now are (due to mass testing) nothing more than people testing 'positive' for remnants of the virus that they had in the Spring and didn't even realise that they had it (then or now), indeed they weren't ever going to become sick then and they aren't getting sick now. The most important stat is how many people are being admitted to hospital BECAUSE of Covid and most importantly, how many of those people are ending up in ICU'S. Indeed mate. Why would people who aren’t I’ll be getting tested ?
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Post by ColonelMustard on Oct 1, 2020 10:54:17 GMT
Why would people who aren’t I’ll be getting tested ? Arent symptomatic/ arent ill. This time around lots of people who have been in contact with a person with a positive test result then get tested even if they have no symptoms. And some of those will turn out to be positive but not symptomatic. And so it goes on. It stands to reason that the percentage of people tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms has gone up. But it diesnt mean the percentage of people who have it without symptoms has gone up. It just means more get tested this time around.
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Post by benjaminbiscuit on Oct 1, 2020 10:56:31 GMT
Why would people who aren’t I’ll be getting tested ? Arent symptomatic. Now lots of people who have been in contact with a person getting positive get tested than they did in march april. And some of those will turn out to be positive but not symptomatic. And so it goes on. It stands to reason that the percentage of people tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms has gone up. But it diesnt mean the percentage of people who have it without symptoms has gone up. It just means more get tested this time around. I accept testing has increased but the latest guideline are clear get tested if you’ve symptoms for the general public .
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Post by Gary Hackett on Oct 1, 2020 10:59:35 GMT
I think you're missing my point mate. What I was trying to say is that the amount of cases undetected in April could have been 120,000+ per day hence why they had up to a thousand deaths per day at that point. Because we are testing more now and detecting the cases that are there, there aren't as many undetected cases so the current amount of cases is a more true figure ( lower) hence why we're not seeing the amount of deaths yet. Maybe you're missing mine mate. The number of 'cases' is irrelevant, the only stat that is relevant are the number of cases of SICK people. France have got some pretty scary 'case' figures over the last 6-7 weeks but those 'cases' haven't ultimately translated into a scary number of deaths, this is good news. Of course the number of cases are relevant because if they were seeing around 120,000 cases in April and now they're only seeing around 15,000 cases a day that's the very reason deaths are currently lower. Because mass testing wasn't being done in April we don't know how many cases there were but a lot of scientists reckon that 100,000 + cases a day back then was very likely.
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 1, 2020 11:02:28 GMT
What's happening now is a truer picture of where we are in comparison to cases to deaths ratio, but it's the long term effects statistics which we are missing which would help see where we are with this virus. Yes absolutely mate, we won't know the long term effects until much further down the line but in the meantime, if we are indeed a few weeks behind France, then even if our 'case' figures do start hitting 15,000 - 20,000 sometime soon, then there's a very good chance that the number of deaths could still remain quite low. It's really complicated to give a full assessment isn't it? Obviously methods to help more people survive will improve but it's what condition they are in and how many people need extensive aftercare. We also don't know if these people are dying further down the line a few months later. Are people fully recovering? We don't really know what we are dealing with, then there is reinfection statistics even further down the line . Are people being left with underlying conditions which will surface further down the line? Who knows what is going on some of the stories people come out with are weird. Some people will say it's scaring people but it's just what we do and don't know. The US is probably one of the best sources for information as they have let it go to some extent. I prefer to listen to what real people have to say about their experiences as well as looking at statistics for a more broader picture. The number of deaths has become a bit of an obsession with many people and it's very misleading as we all know that many people who don't die and even those who suffer mild conditions don't just go back to normal.
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Post by ColonelMustard on Oct 1, 2020 11:09:33 GMT
Arent symptomatic. Now lots of people who have been in contact with a person getting positive get tested than they did in march april. And some of those will turn out to be positive but not symptomatic. And so it goes on. It stands to reason that the percentage of people tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms has gone up. But it diesnt mean the percentage of people who have it without symptoms has gone up. It just means more get tested this time around. I accept testing has increased but the latest guideline are clear get tested if you’ve symptoms for the general public . I honestly am not keeping up with it but there are lots of reasons people go to get tested now, where before they just werent available. Functions, vulnerable relatives, trips abroad. Not only are unsymptomatic more likely to suspect they might have it now but tests are more available. Far more worried people get tested now than last time. It's hard to see why you cant see that. I'm not sure the random sampling is still happening, but it definitely wasnt happening the last time cases rose in feb and march.
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Post by MilanStokie on Oct 1, 2020 11:11:11 GMT
Another who keeps talking about this ranking. 24th highest killer? For which period? At the moment? Where did it rank in April where most will have lost their appointments? What other cause of death was killing over 1000 people per day? Covid-19 has killed more than Influenza this year and that is with an upscaled modelling or an estimation if you will, of Influenza deaths. It has the potential to go to triple and quadruple figure deaths again and that is the dangers, you should perhaps stop clinging onto the 20-30 deaths per day of last week. At this stage it is the potential of the virus that is a risk, not the actual or current data. It probably my ranked number 1 in April because every death seemed to be labelled Covid Ok, I am sure some covid deaths are mis-labelled, just like many influenza deaths will be, considering there is no real testing for it. However, don't you see how daft it is to exaggerate to this level to get a point across? Every death? Really? It's irrelevant where it ranks right at this moment as it is unlike Cancer or heart disease related deaths that will have a consistency about them. This has the potential to get way out of control and a death toll that would struggle to be managed and hospitals that couldnt cope. The potential is the problem, not the current situation.
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Post by Timmypotter on Oct 1, 2020 11:27:42 GMT
Why would people who aren’t I’ll be getting tested ? I'm getting tested once a week as part of a big ONS study. There's 400,000 people on it apparently.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 1, 2020 11:28:05 GMT
Lockdown did not give cancer patients a death sentence. Undiagnosed cases of cancer happened during lockdown (correlation), Undiagnosed cases of cancer occurred because the NHS were at breaking point dealing with Covid cases (causation). The phrase "Lockdown Deaths" is an example of sensationalist reporting and misrepresents the actual causal relationship between events, Lockdown did not give 12,000 men and women a death sentence. The government's late implementation of lockdown caused Covid to get out of hand and overwhelm the NHS. If the government had not locked down the NHS would have been even more overloaded with Covid cases and even more people would not have had their cancer diagnosed. You might argue that the Nightingale hospitals weren't used and the NHS did have capacity but that is an issue of poor management and nothing to do with lockdown per se. I'm sure that will come as some comfort to the relatives and friends at the funerals of their loved ones over the coming months and years. They should read it out. And this winter your posts calling for an end to covid restrictions should be read out at every funeral for a covid victim. I'm sure it will be a comfort to know that their deaths have sustained the lifestyle of the 24 Hour Party People.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Oct 1, 2020 11:31:28 GMT
The NHS was never overwhelmed. It practically shut itself half of it down Lazy ass management of the highest order. So when half the country was out their clapping the NHS for putting their lives at risk by helping Covid patients you were out there booing them for administrative incompetence? Nice.
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Post by scfcbiancorossi on Oct 1, 2020 11:42:37 GMT
Lazy ass management of the highest order. So when half the country was out their clapping the NHS for putting their lives at risk by helping Covid patients you were out there booing them for administrative incompetence? Nice. What's nurses helping people got to do with management incompetence? NHS middle management is a laughing stock within the NHS, let alone outside of it. You can't sit their say and say the NHS is well run right now, surely?
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Post by PotterLog on Oct 1, 2020 11:49:34 GMT
Maybe you're missing mine mate. The number of 'cases' is irrelevant, the only stat that is relevant are the number of cases of SICK people. France have got some pretty scary 'case' figures over the last 6-7 weeks but those 'cases' haven't ultimately translated into a scary number of deaths, this is good news. Of course the number of cases are relevant because if they were seeing around 120,000 cases in April and now they're only seeing around 15,000 cases a day that's the very reason deaths are currently lower. Because mass testing wasn't being done in April we don't know how many cases there were but a lot of scientists reckon that 100,000 + cases a day back then was very likely. Yes, this is indeed possible. Again - this is the good news.
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Post by Davef on Oct 1, 2020 11:54:38 GMT
I'm sure that will come as some comfort to the relatives and friends at the funerals of their loved ones over the coming months and years. They should read it out. And this winter your posts calling for an end to covid restrictions should be read out at every funeral for a covid victim. I'm sure it will be a comfort to know that their deaths have sustained the lifestyle of the 24 Hour Party People. It must be so tiring being as virtuous as you are.
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Post by partickpotter on Oct 1, 2020 11:56:19 GMT
So when half the country was out their clapping the NHS for putting their lives at risk by helping Covid patients you were out there booing them for administrative incompetence? Nice. What's nurses helping people got to do with management incompetence? NHS middle management is a laughing stock within the NHS, let alone outside of it. You can't sit their say and say the NHS is well run right now, surely? The NHS is sacred. Go away and say three Hail Marys and 10 How’s Your Fathers as penance. And don’t criticise the NHS again.
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Post by starkiller on Oct 1, 2020 12:04:07 GMT
Once again, littered with strawman argument, Poundland psychoanalysis, and second person pronouns. Ok. I've found a website that claims that the Libertarian movement is directed by a cyber alien from the planet Venus. The plan is to debunk science and discredit all reputable information sources and have all truth statements about the real world filtered through a belief system premised on a totalitarian takeover by Bill Gates. Anything that does not conform with the Venusian worldview as propagated by the approved websites will be condemned as strawman arguements, Poundland psychanalysis and, worst of all, having no value because of the use of the second person pronoun. This is clearly true as it's my opinion and your last post is textbook Venusian for "nah nah ne nah nah I told you so". Does this look like a deadly pandemic to you?
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 1, 2020 12:08:44 GMT
m.facebook.com/groups/COVID19survivorcorps/Must say this is a really good source to see what people are going through with this virus. I'm not too worried about the hair loss I can deal with that given I hardly have any.
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Post by bgreen13 on Oct 1, 2020 12:17:35 GMT
m.facebook.com/groups/COVID19survivorcorps/Must say this is a really good source to see what people are going through with this virus. I'm not too worried about the hair loss I can deal with that given I hardly have any. Surprised that page has so little members seeing as the Vast majority are survivors.
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Post by Gary Hackett on Oct 1, 2020 12:27:01 GMT
Ok. I've found a website that claims that the Libertarian movement is directed by a cyber alien from the planet Venus. The plan is to debunk science and discredit all reputable information sources and have all truth statements about the real world filtered through a belief system premised on a totalitarian takeover by Bill Gates. Anything that does not conform with the Venusian worldview as propagated by the approved websites will be condemned as strawman arguements, Poundland psychanalysis and, worst of all, having no value because of the use of the second person pronoun. This is clearly true as it's my opinion and your last post is textbook Venusian for "nah nah ne nah nah I told you so". Does this look like a deadly pandemic to you? Depends on how old you are I guess. I take it you don't give a shit because you're not over 60.
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Post by starkiller on Oct 1, 2020 12:41:58 GMT
Does this look like a deadly pandemic to you? Depends on how old you are I guess. I take it you don't give a shit because you're not over 60. So it's because I don't give a shit, is it? Sorry if I don't rise to those high levels of debate. Some of you can't go a few words without insults. If you care about old people, have a look at the systematic placement of vulnerable in care homes to have medical treatment withdrawn and DNR forms applied. This is where the majority of what were labelled covid deaths came from last time. The same process is being done again. Back to the stats, flu has a similar, if not worse, survival rate than Covid 19. So based on your premise, I guess all these years you didn't call for measures, rules and lockdowns for flu was because you 'don't give a shit'?
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Post by thisisouryear on Oct 1, 2020 12:48:49 GMT
Depends on how old you are I guess. I take it you don't give a shit because you're not over 60. So it's because I don't give a shit, is it? Sorry if I don't rise to those high levels of debate. Some of you can't go a few words without insults. If you care about old people, have a look at the systematic placement of vulnerable in care homes to have medical treatment withdrawn and DNR forms applied. This is where the majority of what were labelled covid deaths came from last time. The same process is being done again. Back to the stats, flu has a similar, if not worse, survival rate than Covid 19. So based on your premise, I guess all these years you didn't call for measures, rules and lockdowns for flu was because you 'don't give a shit'? Manipulated figures as ESOF has explained before. People over 70 have a 5.4% of dying from Covid. Go back to page 1,198 and you will see.
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Post by salopstick on Oct 1, 2020 12:50:53 GMT
Well I know several long term labour voters including myself who didn't vote at the last election because of Corbyn and Momentum and I'm sure that's replicated up and down the country. Its a major contributing factor alongside Brexit as to why these clowns got such a high majority but if you don't want to see it because it doesn't suit then carry on. I know several as well. When I ask some of them why they don’t like Corbyn the answers range from “I just don’t” to “he’s a Marxist” “he’s hard left”. The most vilified politician of a generation hammered day after day in all forms of media, and this doesn’t have an effect on people’s opinions? All I see is a missed opportunity for the kind of change this country has been crying out for in terms of addressing inequality across society. Corbyn has many many faults as do most of us, but to repeat he’s worth ten of this buffoon we have in charge. But one person one vote, what you did at the ballot box is up to you and your conscience as I say..... Whoever grassed Corbyn up is a cunt and not one of his friends. I do hope Corbyn voted against the coronavirus act yesterday
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 1, 2020 12:54:10 GMT
Maybe you're missing mine mate. The number of 'cases' is irrelevant, the only stat that is relevant are the number of cases of SICK people. France have got some pretty scary 'case' figures over the last 6-7 weeks but those 'cases' haven't ultimately translated into a scary number of deaths, this is good news. Of course the number of cases are relevant because if they were seeing around 120,000 cases in April and now they're only seeing around 15,000 cases a day that's the very reason deaths are currently lower. Because mass testing wasn't being done in April we don't know how many cases there were but a lot of scientists reckon that 100,000 + cases a day back then was very likely. I don't know if you've read all my other posts on this over the last 24 hours but I've already made that very point. But the number of 'cases' AREN'T relevant, we don't need to know what the percentage ratio is, it's not of any use to us at the moment. The only stat we need to know is how many SICK people there are, we didn't need to know how many people had it in April who weren't sick and we don't need to know now. We might do in the future if antibodies become relevant but it's not important now.
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Post by Gary Hackett on Oct 1, 2020 12:54:53 GMT
I know several as well. When I ask some of them why they don’t like Corbyn the answers range from “I just don’t” to “he’s a Marxist” “he’s hard left”. The most vilified politician of a generation hammered day after day in all forms of media, and this doesn’t have an effect on people’s opinions? All I see is a missed opportunity for the kind of change this country has been crying out for in terms of addressing inequality across society. Corbyn has many many faults as do most of us, but to repeat he’s worth ten of this buffoon we have in charge. But one person one vote, what you did at the ballot box is up to you and your conscience as I say..... Whoever grassed Corbyn up is a cunt and not one of his friends. I do hope Corbyn voted against the coronavirus act yesterday The most surprising part of that story is that he has 8 friends.
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Post by starkiller on Oct 1, 2020 12:55:37 GMT
So it's because I don't give a shit, is it? Sorry if I don't rise to those high levels of debate. Some of you can't go a few words without insults. If you care about old people, have a look at the systematic placement of vulnerable in care homes to have medical treatment withdrawn and DNR forms applied. This is where the majority of what were labelled covid deaths came from last time. The same process is being done again. Back to the stats, flu has a similar, if not worse, survival rate than Covid 19. So based on your premise, I guess all these years you didn't call for measures, rules and lockdowns for flu was because you 'don't give a shit'? Manipulated figures as ESOF has explained before. People over 70 have a 5.4% of dying from Covid. Go back to page 1,198 and you will see. It's from the CDC website. covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesinlast7days
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Post by Paul Spencer on Oct 1, 2020 12:57:28 GMT
Why would people who aren’t I’ll be getting tested ? Arent symptomatic/ arent ill. This time around lots of people who have been in contact with a person with a positive test result then get tested even if they have no symptoms. And some of those will turn out to be positive but not symptomatic. And so it goes on. It stands to reason that the percentage of people tested positive for the virus but who have no symptoms has gone up. But it diesnt mean the percentage of people who have it without symptoms has gone up. It just means more get tested this time around. Exactly.
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