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Post by Paul Spencer on Sept 30, 2020 15:27:06 GMT
New hospital admissions in England back up over 300 as well. ☹️
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Sept 30, 2020 15:30:09 GMT
New hospital admissions in England back up over 300 as well. ☹️ Not good at all Paul
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Sept 30, 2020 15:32:40 GMT
There are basically 2 choices failing the advent of a viable vaccine. Hide under the stairs or treat it as endemic and live with it, like we do with flu and plenty of other things. It`s pretty evident that the economy can`t stand this level of support for too much longer, so decisions will have to be made sooner rather than later. Yes, it`s a nasty bug for some people and a minor inconvenience for most and if the treatment is worse than the disease is it really worth it ? And somehow we are prepared to ruin the economy and take away the most basic of freedoms away over it If only we had an opposition You gotta laugh when someone who's been knocking the opposition for years suddenly finds himself wishing for an opposition to tackle the government he helped to elect Always someone else's fault...
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Post by Paul Spencer on Sept 30, 2020 15:33:53 GMT
Four weeks ago, there was 425 Covid patients in English hospitals, today there is 1,958.
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Post by Rednwhitenblue on Sept 30, 2020 15:42:20 GMT
If you still think this is entirely about controlling a virus that threatens us all, and all the resulting measures are the result of incompetence, fair enough. Yes, that's exactly what I think it is, and the efforts to control it, like every other pandemic that has affected mankind over the millennia. If you don't think that's the case, and you prefer to think it's some kind of global totalitarian dictatorship (which excludes New Zealand and Vietnam and various other countries now largely Covid free) as you've said many times, then that's the very definition of conspiracy theorising I'd say.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 30, 2020 15:46:06 GMT
I totally agree we want to know "if the treatment is worse than the disease". Can you explain your plan and what you'd expect to happen? What if we get a vaccine by early 2021, or don't? I have two issues with spreading bullshit about the coronavirus. First off, it makes people think it's safe so they avoid the basics: masks, distancing, washing etc. This sickens and kills more people and smashes the economy because these things cost almost nothing and dead people, a drowned NHS, and terrified workers & consumers are bad for the economy. It's titanically stupid, just the sort of thing Russian or Chinese operative would want to try to fuck the West. The second issue is that bullshit makes you wrong about how virulent or deadly covid is, so your estimated costs and benefits will be wrong. I care about getting the most reliable information to make sensible decisions so we can open up as much as we possibly can without killing loads of people. I don`t have a plan,just expressing an opinion but I certainly agree with you that getting the right information to allow the individual to make sensible decisions is paramount. Fair enough mate! I've coded up a model ( one of these) and played around, trying to account for thing like treatment getting better with time or hospitals getting overwhelmed and after hours, maybe days... I don't have a plan either I definitely don't have the answer but I'm sure the "open her up" people haven't properly thought through what it means for the economy. Will everyone happily catch the train to work or go to the cinema to spend their £££ while their Dad dies gasping alone in a hospital corridor? When the collapse of the NHS is all over the front pages? When their mate who used to be a proper Walters type on their footy team says they have to quit because of permanent heart scarring? In the US most economists think the economy would now be doing better if they'd got the virus under control with stricter actions early on, for example.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 30, 2020 15:51:31 GMT
Four weeks ago, there was 425 Covid patients in English hospitals, today there is 1,958. This is the problem with virus growth, it's not natural to work it out in our head. It was easy a few weeks ago to say "there are only a few people get infected, so it's not a problem". But if the R number is above 1 it multiplies. There are lots of riddles about exponential growth: "Doubling Time is the time it takes a population to double at a constant rate of growth. Bacteria, for instance, multiply by division. One bacterium becomes two. Then two divide into four; the four divide into eight, and so on. For a certain strain of bacteria, the time for this division process is one minute. If you put one of these bacterium in a bottle at 11:00 p.m., the entire bottle will be full by midnight. When would the bottle be half full?How do you know?" Answer (highlight to get): 11:59 pm. Because after one more minute it will double, and half full becomes full.
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Post by mtrstudent on Sept 30, 2020 15:59:13 GMT
The way people have been acting over the past 4 weeks, new cases have gone from ~1,100/day to ~6,000/day.
If people keep acting the same then the multiplication rate should stay about the same, i.e. every month the number of daily new cases will multiply by 5-6.
End of October: 33,000/day End of November: 180,000/day
Eventually it levels off and then drops because there aren't enough uninfected people left. But if people don't change what we're doing then those are the numbers you're looking at. "People changing" could be because of government rules or because we do stuff by ourselves: wearing proper masks all the time in public and putting barriers between tables at the pub would likely slow it down, for example.
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Sept 30, 2020 16:22:19 GMT
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Post by crouchpotato1 on Sept 30, 2020 16:37:30 GMT
“Get on the website because I haven’t got a fookin clue”
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Post by Davef on Sept 30, 2020 16:56:57 GMT
So that's it, your life is on hold until a vaccine can "save us".
This wanker's day will come.
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Post by chigstoke on Sept 30, 2020 17:02:11 GMT
So that's it, your life is on hold until a vaccine can "save us". This wanker's day will come. The replies to that tweet speak volumes He is one of the countries most hated men right now. Rightly so. A fucking inept buffoon. My cock could've done a better job than him.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2020 17:08:29 GMT
The Dadsuals are out in force in the replies!
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Post by andystokey on Sept 30, 2020 17:09:34 GMT
Four weeks ago, there was 425 Covid patients in English hospitals, today there is 1,958. The most worrying thing that most people don't take into account is the latency of these daily figures into the virus lifecycle. It's not just the infection to deaths delay. It impacts even an improvement in the treatment cycle. The discharge rate for Covid-19 can be very slow meaning the accumulation in hospitals goes up faster than the additional daily totals might suggest. The reduction in those acute beds available doesn't only kill Covid patients. We are nowhere near peak winter flu season yet. The protect the NHS message needs wheeling out. That was a cause people understood.
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Post by Paul Spencer on Sept 30, 2020 17:18:12 GMT
Four weeks ago, there was 425 Covid patients in English hospitals, today there is 1,958. The most worrying thing that most people don't take into account is the latency of these daily figures into the virus lifecycle. It's not just the infection to deaths delay. It impacts even an improvement in the treatment cycle. The discharge rate for Covid-19 can be very slow meaning the accumulation in hospitals goes up faster than the additional daily totals might suggest. The reduction in those acute beds available doesn't only kill Covid patients. We are nowhere near peak winter flu season yet. The protect the NHS message needs wheeling out. That was a cause people understood. Indeed Andy. Four weeks ago there were 59 Covid patients on ventilators in this country, yet today there is 281. And you've got commentators out there, adamant that Covid-19 is all but over. 🙄
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Post by Deleted on Sept 30, 2020 17:23:14 GMT
They'll wait until Christmas, then put us all in national lockdown.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2020 17:25:55 GMT
They'll wait until Christmas, then put us all in national lockdown. You think? I mean that's what they should do imo. But I think they're trying to do everything to avoid that.
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Post by henry on Sept 30, 2020 17:29:14 GMT
So that's it, your life is on hold until a vaccine can "save us". This wanker's day will come. We are fucked aren't we, no life as we once knew it unless you partake in a mandatory jab. It's laid bare in front of us, it's horrifying. A thought out tweet designed to do nothing but depress and grind down any optimism that this fucking shit is going to end any time soon. You just know loads of those cunts in westminster are balls deep in vaccine company shares.
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Post by bayernoatcake on Sept 30, 2020 17:30:15 GMT
So that's it, your life is on hold until a vaccine can "save us". This wanker's day will come. We are fucked aren't we, no life as we once knew it unless you partake in a mandatory jab. It's laid bare in front of us, it's horrifying. A thought out tweet designed to do nothing but depress and grind down any optimism that this fucking shit is going to end any time soon. You just know loads of those cunts in westminster are balls deep in vaccine company shares. I'm sorry but what were people actually expecting? Where were you getting any optimism from?
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Post by salopstick on Sept 30, 2020 17:37:05 GMT
And somehow we are prepared to ruin the economy and take away the most basic of freedoms away over it If only we had an opposition You gotta laugh when someone who's been knocking the opposition for years suddenly finds himself wishing for an opposition to tackle the government he helped to elect Always someone else's fault... I’ve been consistent that a good opposition should hold government to account. We never had a good opposition under Corbyn. What’s Starmer doing?
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Post by BraveSirRobin on Sept 30, 2020 17:43:28 GMT
The Dadsuals are out in force in the replies! Is that the new twitter buzzword?
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Post by chigstoke on Sept 30, 2020 17:46:47 GMT
They'll wait until Christmas, then put us all in national lockdown. I said that to a couple mates on Monday, I wouldn't be surprised.
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Post by starkiller on Sept 30, 2020 17:47:21 GMT
So that's it, your life is on hold until a vaccine can "save us". This wanker's day will come. We are fucked aren't we, no life as we once knew it unless you partake in a mandatory jab. It's laid bare in front of us, it's horrifying. A thought out tweet designed to do nothing but depress and grind down any optimism that this fucking shit is going to end any time soon. You just know loads of those cunts in westminster are balls deep in vaccine company shares. And even after that it won't be back to normal. Just another carrot in front of people. It will need to be repeated, and on it will go. And who knows where livelihoods, lives and Draconian measures will be by this point.
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Post by henry on Sept 30, 2020 17:48:31 GMT
They'll wait until Christmas, then put us all in national lockdown. I said that to a couple mates on Monday, I wouldn't be surprised. Turkeys that serve 8 - 10 people are safe this year.
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Sept 30, 2020 17:49:15 GMT
I said that to a couple mates on Monday, I wouldn't be surprised. Turkeys that serve 8 - 10 people are safe this year. Only if they're chlorinated.
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Post by chigstoke on Sept 30, 2020 17:50:37 GMT
I said that to a couple mates on Monday, I wouldn't be surprised. Turkeys that serve 8 - 10 people are safe this year. Bollocks to that, I'm getting my monies worth from it, I'll greedy bastard the thing if no one is allowed round our house
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Post by Seymour Beaver on Sept 30, 2020 17:51:27 GMT
You gotta laugh when someone who's been knocking the opposition for years suddenly finds himself wishing for an opposition to tackle the government he helped to elect Always someone else's fault... I’ve been consistent that a good opposition should hold government to account. We never had a good opposition under Corbyn. What’s Starmer doing? Starmers job is to build a platform for 2024 - not bail you out because you chose to vote for a bunch of blustering bellends and now wish you hadn't.
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Post by liam007 on Sept 30, 2020 18:03:59 GMT
They'll wait until Christmas, then put us all in national lockdown. I said that to a couple mates on Monday, I wouldn't be surprised. I know for a fact that the area's biggest employers are already planning for a xmas lockdown.Staff already working hours in advance to have longer off at xmas due to expected supply problems.
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Post by salopstick on Sept 30, 2020 18:08:03 GMT
I’ve been consistent that a good opposition should hold government to account. We never had a good opposition under Corbyn. What’s Starmer doing? Starmers job is to build a platform for 2024 - not bail you out because you chose to vote for a bunch of blustering bellends and now wish you hadn't. It’s not bailing out the government and not “us” either But if you’ve got no opposition to what government do. No checks and balance then how can he build a platform for 2024 Is Boris doing the right thing over the virus? Not 100% probably not even 50% but Starmer just nods his head and allows Boris to continue so you could argue he’s complicit
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Post by salopstick on Sept 30, 2020 18:10:52 GMT
So that's it, your life is on hold until a vaccine can "save us". This wanker's day will come. It’s a fucking disgrace. Parliment all the cunts of whatever party should be ashamed. They won’t give a fuck though.
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