rdf10
Academy Starlet
Posts: 186
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Post by rdf10 on Feb 27, 2020 9:23:23 GMT
Nine clubs are more likely to be relegated ahead of us now... including Derby? Also Reading at 40/1 seems pretty generous considering their form and Sheff Wed are 16/1 despite being six points above them. Attachments:
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Post by Gods on Feb 27, 2020 9:27:47 GMT
These odds are unfathomable to me, right across the piece, it's been like this for weeks.
How can we be 1 point from the trap door with only a dozen games to go and there be 9 teams more likely to go down than us? For what it's worth I don't think we will go down but still...
As for the pecking order of the rest I get it that there is the possibility of Derby and Sheff Wed getting docked points under FFP so perhaps that makes sense. But the bookies still have Luton and Barnsley and Wigan as dead men walking.
However Reading and Hull are doing everything in their power to get in on the act. Hull conceded 22 shots in losing at home to bottom 3 Barnsley last night and Reading 17 shots in losing 3-0 at home to Wigan. Nothing there to make you think Barnsley or Wigan were fortunate, they are both just playing a whole lot better than others on far longer odds to go down than them right now.
I think a couple of well placed bets on Reading and Hull would have real value and dare I say it a cheeky under the radar one on us!
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Post by s8to on Feb 27, 2020 9:28:33 GMT
Still even so a firkin appalling indictment of our squad isn’t it!! By what measure have our top management succeeded here? #scholesout
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Post by scfc75 on Feb 27, 2020 9:34:39 GMT
These odds are unfathomable to me, right across the piece, it's been like this for weeks. It doesn’t help that teams in the bottom 6 seem to be picking points up now. The form table for the last 6 games has Wigan 4th, Charlton 6th, us 10th, Luton 11th..... it’s so hard to predict how it’ll end.
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Post by CBUFAWKIPWH on Feb 27, 2020 10:28:18 GMT
These odds are unfathomable to me, right across the piece, it's been like this for weeks. It doesn’t help that teams in the bottom 6 seem to be picking points up now. The form table for the last 6 games has Wigan 4th, Charlton 6th, us 10th, Luton 11th..... it’s so hard to predict how it’ll end. We're in mid table form at the moment - as are the current bottom 3. If we - and they - maintain our current performance levels we'll be ok. We'll only go down if we revert to early season form and that doesn't look likely at the the moment - but could happen. I'd far rather be where we are with 11 games to go than Reading, Hull and Middlesborough - they're sinking like stones and time is running out to turn things around.
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Post by tachyon on Feb 27, 2020 11:14:51 GMT
How can we be 1 point from the trap door with only a dozen games to go and there be 9 teams more likely to go down than us? For what it's worth I don't think we will go down but still... Bookmakers will each have their own way of working out the odds. Here's how we go about it. Based on our assessment of each team, we estimate the win/draw/loss probabilities of every remaining game. Here's how we currently have Stoke's final 11 fixtures. Attachment DeletedWe think we'll get 3 points in 44 out of 100 games away at Luton & get one point 26 times/100. On average we'll get 1.6 points. You can't get 1.6 points (obviously) so we draw random numbers in proportion to each outcome and assign aa actual outcome to Saturday's game. We repeat this 10,000 times, not just for one game, but for every remaining Championship game. Then we add up the final points for each of the 10,000 iterations. (We also incorporate score lines to split teams who are level on points after 46 games). We then total up every time Stoke go down in these simulations. That's currently around 12 in every 100 simulations. This is a really flexible prediction method because we can also look at particular scenarios to see how improtant upcoming games are. For example, should we beat Luton on Saturday our chance of relegation will fall from 12% to around 5%. If we draw it will rise to 15% and if we lose it will rise even further to 20%. So it's a fairly big game. We can also incorporte points deductions. Derby currently have a 4% chance of being relegated. Add in a 12 point deduction and that skyrockets to 71%, even a six point deduction pushes them to 26% chance of going down.
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Post by rawli on Feb 27, 2020 11:20:54 GMT
How can we be 1 point from the trap door with only a dozen games to go and there be 9 teams more likely to go down than us? For what it's worth I don't think we will go down but still... Bookmakers will each have their own way of working out the odds. Here's how we go about it. Based on our assessment of each team, we estimate the win/draw/loss probabilities of every remaining game. Here's how we currently have Stoke's final 11 fixtures. View AttachmentWe think we'll get 3 points in 44 out of 100 games away at Luton & get one point 26 times/100. On average we'll get 1.6 points. You can't get 1.6 points (obviously) so we draw random numbers in proportion to each outcome and assign aa actual outcome to Saturday's game. We repeat this 10,000 times, not just for one game, but for every remaining Championship game. Then we add up the final points for each of the 10,000 iterations. (We also incorporate score lines to split teams who are level on points after 46 games). We then total up every time Stoke go down in these simulations. That's currently around 12 in every 100 simulations. This is a really flexible prediction method because we can also look at particular scenarios to see how improtant upcoming games are. For example, should we beat Luton on Saturday our chance of relegation will fall from 12% to around 5%. If we draw it will rise to 15% and if we lose it will rise even further to 20%. So it's a fairly big game. We can also incorporte points deductions. Derby currently have a 4% chance of being relegated. Add in a 12 point deduction and that skyrockets to 71%, even a six point deduction pushes them to 26% chance of going down. Do betting patterns also have an effect?
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Post by tachyon on Feb 27, 2020 11:29:05 GMT
[/quote]Do betting patterns also have an effect? [/quote]
Line movements from certain sources do appear to be very well informed.
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Post by OldStokie on Feb 27, 2020 12:31:21 GMT
Bloody 'ell tachyon... are you a reincarnation of Alan Turing?! Your name would suggest you're only a hypothetical person, but the posts you do would make it a sure bet that you do exist. The next thing that will happen is when I ask Alexa if Stoke will stay up she will tell me to "Contact Tachyon, Michael." So now a straightforward question for you and not Alexa. Will we avoid relegation or not?! I need to know! OS.
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Post by tachyon on Feb 27, 2020 12:56:24 GMT
So now a straightforward question for you and not Alexa. Will we avoid relegation or not?! I need to know! OS. Lol (almost) anything can happen, with varying degrees of likelihood, so I can't offer any degree of certainty. Currently we're as likely to go down as it is to rain in Uttoxeter on Sunday. About 12% :-)
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Post by kustokie on Feb 27, 2020 13:14:30 GMT
So now a straightforward question for you and not Alexa. Will we avoid relegation or not?! I need to know! OS. Lol (almost) anything can happen, with varying degrees of likelihood, so I can't offer any degree of certainty. Currently we're as likely to go down as it is to rain in Uttoxeter on Sunday. About 12% :-) Nice job! This means there’s a 88% we’ll stay up, which is in good agreement with the bookies’ odds of 9/1 that we will go down (1 in 10, or 10%).
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Post by elystokie on Feb 27, 2020 13:38:10 GMT
Nine clubs are more likely to be relegated ahead of us now... including Derby? Also Reading at 40/1 seems pretty generous considering their form and Sheff Wed are 16/1 despite being six points above them. Hull's odds seem to be falling fast, I looked with the intention of having a couple of quid on them a few days ago and they were 20/1, by the time I got around to putting the bet on they were 11/1, still good value imo.
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Post by zerps on Feb 27, 2020 13:48:06 GMT
Nine clubs are more likely to be relegated ahead of us now... including Derby? Also Reading at 40/1 seems pretty generous considering their form and Sheff Wed are 16/1 despite being six points above them. Hull's odds seem to be falling fast, I looked with the intention of having a couple of quid on them a few days ago and they were 20/1, by the time I got around to putting the bet on they were 11/1, still good value imo. Hull have definitely blown it.
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Post by Glory Hunter on Feb 27, 2020 16:31:10 GMT
Bookmakers will each have their own way of working out the odds. Here's how we go about it. Based on our assessment of each team, we estimate the win/draw/loss probabilities of every remaining game. Here's how we currently have Stoke's final 11 fixtures. We think we'll get 3 points in 44 out of 100 games away at Luton & get one point 26 times/100. On average we'll get 1.6 points. You can't get 1.6 points (obviously) so we draw random numbers in proportion to each outcome and assign aa actual outcome to Saturday's game. We repeat this 10,000 times, not just for one game, but for every remaining Championship game. Then we add up the final points for each of the 10,000 iterations. (We also incorporate score lines to split teams who are level on points after 46 games). We then total up every time Stoke go down in these simulations. That's currently around 12 in every 100 simulations. This is a really flexible prediction method because we can also look at particular scenarios to see how improtant upcoming games are. For example, should we beat Luton on Saturday our chance of relegation will fall from 12% to around 5%. If we draw it will rise to 15% and if we lose it will rise even further to 20%. So it's a fairly big game. We can also incorporte points deductions. Derby currently have a 4% chance of being relegated. Add in a 12 point deduction and that skyrockets to 71%, even a six point deduction pushes them to 26% chance of going down. Do betting patterns also have an effect? Impressive. And on present form means we will be safe. As you say the Luton game is a bit of a “swinger”
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Post by Deleted on Feb 27, 2020 21:28:35 GMT
These odds are unfathomable to me, right across the piece, it's been like this for weeks. What is it that is so complicated? Bookies are neither "backing" us, or "writing us off".
The odds reflect betting patterns by punters. If punters really knew what was happening - there would be no betting markets, or bookies.
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Post by swampmongrel on Feb 27, 2020 21:51:39 GMT
Tachyon. Does your model have a central prediction for how many points required to stay up?
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Post by Gods on Feb 27, 2020 22:34:24 GMT
These odds are unfathomable to me, right across the piece, it's been like this for weeks. What is it that is so complicated? Bookies are neither "backing" us, or "writing us off". The odds reflect betting patterns by punters. If punters really knew what was happening - there would be no betting markets, or bookies.
I explained what is unfathomable in the remainder of my post along with a helpful recommendation to prospective punters to take advantage of this apparent anomaly all of which you somewhat bizarrely chose to remove from your 'quote', or should I say partial quote, above.
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Post by PotterLog on Feb 28, 2020 0:55:58 GMT
These odds are unfathomable to me, right across the piece, it's been like this for weeks. What is it that is so complicated? Bookies are neither "backing" us, or "writing us off".
The odds reflect betting patterns by punters. If punters really knew what was happening - there would be no betting markets, or bookies.
Punters’ betting patterns reflect one small part of how odds are calculated. I’d wager (natch) they have negligible influence in this particular market.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2020 1:20:53 GMT
What is it that is so complicated? Bookies are neither "backing" us, or "writing us off".
The odds reflect betting patterns by punters. If punters really knew what was happening - there would be no betting markets, or bookies.
Punters’ betting patterns reflect one small part of how odds are calculated. I’d wager (natch) they have negligible influence in this particular market. Bookies make money. Nothing else matters to them. The punters dictate how the "book" is balanced. Whatever the event is, or the outcome - the bookies will have "balanced" their books. They will win.
This idea that bookies have some secret information is just laughable.
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Post by PotterLog on Feb 28, 2020 2:43:12 GMT
Punters’ betting patterns reflect one small part of how odds are calculated. I’d wager (natch) they have negligible influence in this particular market. Bookies make money. Nothing else matters to them. The punters dictate how the "book" is balanced. Whatever the event is, or the outcome - the bookies will have "balanced" their books. They will win.
This idea that bookies have some secret information is just laughable.
Who said anything about secret information? What they have is a lot of data, which is extensively processed and analysed and factored in alongside what’s happening in the market, and then they adjust their odds accordingly. There’s a reasonably comprehensive account of how it works a bit further up in this very thread. It’s known as giving yourself a competitive advantage. The idea that bookies’ odds are based in their entirety on what punters are doing, in this day and age is... well I won’t say it’s laughable or naive, it’s just wrong.
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Post by Gods on Feb 28, 2020 7:20:27 GMT
Punters’ betting patterns reflect one small part of how odds are calculated. I’d wager (natch) they have negligible influence in this particular market. Bookies make money. Nothing else matters to them. The punters dictate how the "book" is balanced. Whatever the event is, or the outcome - the bookies will have "balanced" their books. They will win. This idea that bookies have some secret information is just laughable.
Clumsy attempt at a serve but PL was correcting your earlier point. But you knew that anyway.
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Post by tachyon on Feb 28, 2020 7:31:40 GMT
Tachyon. Does your model have a central prediction for how many points required to stay up? Every team has their own unique survival target, partly because you can't finish above yourself. Currently Stoke are more likely to stay up than not once they reach 49 points. We could stay up with 43 points or go down with 54 although both are very unlikely outliers.
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Post by tachyon on Feb 28, 2020 7:35:14 GMT
[/quote] What is it that is so complicated? Bookies are neither "backing" us, or "writing us off". The odds reflect betting patterns by punters. If punters really knew what was happening - there would be no betting markets, or bookies.
[/quote] That's just one buisness model. Others exist.
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Post by georgieboy52 on Feb 28, 2020 16:14:10 GMT
Punters’ betting patterns reflect one small part of how odds are calculated. I’d wager (natch) they have negligible influence in this particular market. Bookies make money. Nothing else matters to them. The punters dictate how the "book" is balanced. Whatever the event is, or the outcome - the bookies will have "balanced" their books. They will win.
This idea that bookies have some secret information is just laughable.
They do not win EVERY event you clown. If everybody backs the favourite and the favourite wins, they lose regardless of the price. They win more often than not obviously simply because they lay with an overound-a theoretical profit margin-before a single bet is placed. Then they adjust the odds accordingly to weight of money on all of the possible outcomes.
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Post by march4 on Feb 28, 2020 16:18:51 GMT
News suggesting season could be made null and void if coronavirus causes loads of games cancelled.
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Post by georgieboy52 on Feb 28, 2020 16:22:36 GMT
News suggesting season could be made null and void if coronavirus causes loads of games cancelled. Don't know who dubbed it coronavirus. When I was a kid, Corona was fizzy pop.
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Post by wakefieldstokie on Feb 28, 2020 16:46:15 GMT
Still even so a firkin appalling indictment of our squad isn’t it!! By what measure have our top management succeeded here? #scholesout This current squad under MON are doing ok. Base it on form since Nov. Moan about Jones instead
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Post by wakefieldstokie on Feb 28, 2020 16:48:54 GMT
News suggesting season could be made null and void if coronavirus causes loads of games cancelled. ‘News’ what do media outlets actually know other than alarmist headlines get attention and ultimately make money. This blanket fear mongering is ridiculous
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Post by GoBoks on Feb 28, 2020 16:51:59 GMT
News suggesting season could be made null and void if coronavirus causes loads of games cancelled. Don't know who dubbed it coronavirus. When I was a kid, Corona was fizzy pop. Now it’s a Mexican beer.
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Post by GoBoks on Feb 28, 2020 16:56:52 GMT
How can we be 1 point from the trap door with only a dozen games to go and there be 9 teams more likely to go down than us? For what it's worth I don't think we will go down but still... Bookmakers will each have their own way of working out the odds. Here's how we go about it. Based on our assessment of each team, we estimate the win/draw/loss probabilities of every remaining game. Here's how we currently have Stoke's final 11 fixtures. View AttachmentWe think we'll get 3 points in 44 out of 100 games away at Luton & get one point 26 times/100. On average we'll get 1.6 points. You can't get 1.6 points (obviously) so we draw random numbers in proportion to each outcome and assign aa actual outcome to Saturday's game. We repeat this 10,000 times, not just for one game, but for every remaining Championship game. Then we add up the final points for each of the 10,000 iterations. (We also incorporate score lines to split teams who are level on points after 46 games). We then total up every time Stoke go down in these simulations. That's currently around 12 in every 100 simulations. This is a really flexible prediction method because we can also look at particular scenarios to see how improtant upcoming games are. For example, should we beat Luton on Saturday our chance of relegation will fall from 12% to around 5%. If we draw it will rise to 15% and if we lose it will rise even further to 20%. So it's a fairly big game. We can also incorporte points deductions. Derby currently have a 4% chance of being relegated. Add in a 12 point deduction and that skyrockets to 71%, even a six point deduction pushes them to 26% chance of going down. Very very interesting. I assume the assessment of each teams chances against each other team is reassessed after each game to account for key injuries etc. Based on this, if MON pulls out his magic wand and motivates the team to play 20% better than they have been, (not an unrealistic target in my opinion) and assuming the other teams carry on their usual approach, we should win every game left except Leeds Brentford and Forest.
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