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Post by slicko on Feb 23, 2020 19:37:13 GMT
Despite our astonishing turnaround had we lost yesterday we'd be level on points with a bottom 3 club. Fuck it's tight at the bottom. Said Big Peter Coates as he reached for his Lovehoney Lube before giving Nathan Jones a final stay of execution 🤣 |
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Post by mattador78 on Feb 23, 2020 20:04:35 GMT
I don't wish to steal the OP's excellent thunder here, but i've taken it down to my simple simon level - PPG since the turn of the year. This is the PPG since Jan 1st and points projection at current PPG. | WBA | 1.67 | 86 | | | Preston | 1.89 | 79 | |
Brentford |
1.78 |
77 | | | Fulham | 1.67 | 77 | | | Leeds | 1.22 | 77 | | | Forest | 1.30 | 72 | |
Blackburn |
1.67 |
71 | | | Swansea | 1.44 | 68 | | | Cardiff | 1.44 | 67 | | | Birmingham | 1.78 | 66 | | | Bristol City | 1.00 | 65 | | | Derby | 1.67 | 65 | | | Millwall | 1.33 | 65 | | | Stoke | 1.78 | 58 | | | QPR | 1.22 | 58 | | | Reading | 1.00 | 54 | | | Charlton | 1.22 | 54 | | | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.67 | 53 | | | Wigan | 1.56 | 53 | | | Hull | 0.56 | 48 | | | Huddersfield | 0.89 | 47 | |
Middlesbrough |
0.78 |
46 | | | Barnsley | 1.11 | 44 | | | Luton | 1.00 | 42 | |
Interesting... To be honest this clip will be like our run in He’s safe he’s out |
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Post by march4 on Feb 23, 2020 20:04:54 GMT
Often one of the relegated teams realises they are in trouble too late and get dragged into the mire.
The teams who have been battling relegation all season know the task facing them and can escape at the last minute.
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Post by swampmongrel on Feb 23, 2020 20:22:58 GMT
Often one of the relegated teams realises they are in trouble too late and get dragged into the mire. The teams who have been battling relegation all season know the task facing them and can escape at the last minute. Best strategy for us would be to lose three or four on the trot in order to ward off complacency 👍 |
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Post by kustokie on Feb 23, 2020 21:23:45 GMT
Here's the game by game xG for this season. Our ten game rolling xG differential has taken a hit because we've replaced our best xG attacking performance (home to SW) with our worst defensive display (away at QPR). Overall our master rating has us as just outside the league's top six. Simulations of the remainder of the season results in relegation in nine out of every 100 iterations. Our average final points has a median value of 54 points. Our most common final position is 18th and we just creep into the top ten in around 1 in every 100 simulations Any points deduction for any of our rivals only improves these numbers. Of the teams threatened with a deduction, we have Derby & Birmingham each finishing with 60 earned points and SW with 62. How many times did we make the playoffs? |
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Post by hyaduck on Feb 23, 2020 21:52:25 GMT
I pulled away just this now
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2020 2:56:27 GMT
Read the title and smiled like a silly little teenager  Small minds and all that |
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Post by supersimonstainrod on Feb 24, 2020 3:05:38 GMT
Read the title and smiled like a silly little teenager Small minds and all that I'd have put money on it being a Waggy thread....😉 |
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Post by StoKeith on Feb 24, 2020 3:29:26 GMT
I’d be interested to see some more xG stuff for the past few games. Where’s Tachyon? I’m no tachyon and don’t have access to all his advanced data and simulations, but I periodically post these graphs to the site, just in case anyone is interested. I get the xG data from Infogol so it’s in its “raw” form as no adjustments are made to make more sense of the data. If someone missed a penalty and then got another chance and blasted it over it would be 0.8xG for the penalty and something like 0.5xG for the rebound, resulting in more than 1xG for one phase of play. Tachyon mentioned that advanced models adjust for this kind of obviously incorrect result. Anyway, here are the graphs FWIW: Green is our goals (or xG) FOR. Red is our goals (or xG) AGAINST.    |
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Post by felonious on Feb 24, 2020 5:21:17 GMT
Read the title and smiled like a silly little teenager Small minds and all that I'd have put money on it being a Waggy thread....😉 Certainly a Tachy thread. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2020 11:28:02 GMT
What OP's tells us though is quite how much we have improved, we might not be the best side in the league on current form but it's a good reminder of how much better we are than before. Oh absolutely, i'm just too thick to understand it...  What it shows us is that we are by far the most improved side in the league since MON took over. I think that's important because it reminds us of just how badly we were doing, which is important when you become used to seeing a competent Stoke side. It's a good reminder that if we finish this season in this league MON has done a phenomenal job. In games like the Derby or Preston ones I've felt frustrated that we haven't taken the chance to creep into mid-table but stats like this remind us that even being able to hope for mid table shows just how far we've come in such a short space of time with a squad that's weakened in January. On November 5th before MON's first game was anyone hoping for mid table? We were all desperate for safety. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2020 11:30:37 GMT
I’d be interested to see some more xG stuff for the past few games. Where’s Tachyon? I’m no tachyon and don’t have access to all his advanced data and simulations, but I periodically post these graphs to the site, just in case anyone is interested. I get the xG data from Infogol so it’s in its “raw” form as no adjustments are made to make more sense of the data. If someone missed a penalty and then got another chance and blasted it over it would be 0.8xG for the penalty and something like 0.5xG for the rebound, resulting in more than 1xG for one phase of play. Tachyon mentioned that advanced models adjust for this kind of obviously incorrect result. Anyway, here are the graphs FWIW: Green is our goals (or xG) FOR. Red is our goals (or xG) AGAINST. I have a lot of time for this sort of thing, I liked the idea of the 'expected kilns' guy on twitter or whatever he was called. Sadly instead of just dropping the stats on us he was obsessed with using them to also further his personal arguments and opinions. Really cool you're doing it in such a way mate  appreciate the effort. |
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Post by jezzascfc on Feb 24, 2020 17:38:59 GMT
Good work well done. Now we want all the theories why such a phenomenon exists. 1. There are Pulis type managers who get players super fit before the season, and hit the ground running at the start of the season. When other teams catch up in terms of fitness their true level of talent becomes apparent. 2. There are Hughes type managers who believe in not exhausting players early in the season, but expect to build up during the season an be at their best when it counts most during the last quarter of the season. 3. There are Bielsa type managers who believe in playing high tempo matches, which accumulates a lot of points quickly, but eventually players tire and lose their edge. Leeds 2018, 2019, 2020? 4. The early season successful teams are studied and analysed and their strengths and weaknesses are sussed out by other clubs and then counteracted and exposed. 5. Teams change manager during the season and the "new manager bounce" occurs, sometimes to run out of steam. Beware Stoke. 6. Player have their brains in their boots not their heads and think if they are winning it's easy, they are brilliant, they should be playing for a better club and they take their foot of the gas. That's why they concede goals just after scoring. e.g Middlesbrough's recent good run after they beat us has fizzled out. I'm sure you can think of more.................... 7. All teams are a bit shit and it evens out over a season? |
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Post by hogansgoals on Feb 24, 2020 18:55:05 GMT
Interestingly we’ve won 11 games this season which is the same amount of wins as all last season. we've only got four draws not 20 |
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Post by Little Gary Patel on Feb 24, 2020 22:21:02 GMT
Quick look at the run makes good reading for us and terrible for Derby from @eflstats on twitter  |
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Post by Gods on Feb 24, 2020 23:25:32 GMT
Interesting above, our 6 matches which follow Blackburn away are really where we should be looking to cash in.
The table appears to work purely off current league position in assessing the difficulty of any given match with no allowance made for home or away.
Which even in today's world of uniform playing surfaces and sanitised audiences doesn't quite add up.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2020 8:34:59 GMT
Not pulled away but dragged a lot more teams into it by catching them up. Ourselves,Wigan and Barnsley are picking up points which has dragged Boro, Huddersfield,Charlton and maybe Hull into it.
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Post by Northy on Feb 25, 2020 8:45:43 GMT
I don't wish to steal the OP's excellent thunder here, but i've taken it down to my simple simon level - PPG since the turn of the year. This is the PPG since Jan 1st and points projection at current PPG. | WBA | 1.67 | 86 | | | Preston | 1.89 | 79 | |
Brentford |
1.78 |
77 | | | Fulham | 1.67 | 77 | | | Leeds | 1.22 | 77 | | | Forest | 1.30 | 72 | |
Blackburn |
1.67 |
71 | | | Swansea | 1.44 | 68 | | | Cardiff | 1.44 | 67 | | | Birmingham | 1.78 | 66 | | | Bristol City | 1.00 | 65 | | | Derby | 1.67 | 65 | | | Millwall | 1.33 | 65 | | | Stoke | 1.78 | 58 | | | QPR | 1.22 | 58 | | | Reading | 1.00 | 54 | | | Charlton | 1.22 | 54 | | | Sheffield Wednesday | 0.67 | 53 | | | Wigan | 1.56 | 53 | | | Hull | 0.56 | 48 | | | Huddersfield | 0.89 | 47 | |
Middlesbrough |
0.78 |
46 | | | Barnsley | 1.11 | 44 | | | Luton | 1.00 | 42 | |
Interesting... Two teams I see there that need to take care are Hull and Sheffield Wednesday. Their PPG has been awful and they've both seen a drop in the table. It is not beyond the realms of possibility for them to get drawn in towards seasons close. Not that I mind, the worse the others do, the better for us! Middlesboro for me, they won 4 out of 4 in December, if it hadn't been for that they would be in even more dire straits. A lucky win against us, definite penalty turned down against us. |
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Post by zerps on Feb 25, 2020 8:58:11 GMT
Looking forward to watching Uddersfield v Brizzle C tonight. With a vested interest.
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Post by tachyon on Feb 25, 2020 10:53:09 GMT
We look at upcoming matches by estimating the probability of each outcome. Currently we think Stoke would score 1.35 goals against an average team at a neutral venue and allow 1.22 goals. Blackburn's numbers are 1.21 and 1.20 Once you account for Blackburn being the home team, we expect the hosts to average 1.31 goals and Stoke 1.14 goals per game in Wednesday's game. That equates to a 39% chance of a Blackburn win, 33% for a Stoke win and 28% the draw. Attachment DeletedYou can convert these probabilities in average expected points by multiplying Stoke's win probability by 3 (3*0.33) and adding the draw probability multiplied by 1 (1*0.28). You get 1.27 expected points. Based on all remaining matches we'll average around 17 more points, the 8th most points won by a side in the run in. We expect Brentford to get the most (23) & Charlton the least (12). |
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Post by mickeythemaestro on Feb 25, 2020 12:22:07 GMT
Here's the game by game xG for this season. Our ten game rolling xG differential has taken a hit because we've replaced our best xG attacking performance (home to SW) with our worst defensive display (away at QPR). Overall our master rating has us as just outside the league's top six. Simulations of the remainder of the season results in relegation in nine out of every 100 iterations. Our average final points has a median value of 54 points. Our most common final position is 18th and we just creep into the top ten in around 1 in every 100 simulations Any points deduction for any of our rivals only improves these numbers. Of the teams threatened with a deduction, we have Derby & Birmingham each finishing with 60 earned points and SW with 62. So in technical language: we’re not fucked 🤣 Not quite but not far off. MON has really worked a minor miracle given the mess he inherited. Either a rare stroke of luck for the board or a very very wise appointment. |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2020 20:23:25 GMT
No fault of MoN who has been excellent
But boy did NJ leave us in a massive hole
If we stay up , MoN is championship manager of the season for me
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2020 21:16:11 GMT
I think tonight is showing us why. Fair play to those around us, no one is going without a fight
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Post by Gods on Feb 26, 2020 7:54:10 GMT
We'll be bottom 3 tonight if we lose to Blackburn, Middlesborough lose to Leeds but better our result and Wigan beat Reading by 6.
Okay it wont happen but the fact that it is even possible after we have put together 19 games of near play off form is extraordinary.
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Post by dirtygary69 on Feb 26, 2020 8:20:36 GMT
We'll be bottom 3 tonight if we lose to Blackburn, Middlesborough lose to Leeds but better our result and Wigan beat Reading by 6. Okay it wont happen but the fact that it is even possible after we have put together 19 games of near play off form is extraordinary. It's crazy really but I think rather than us worrying about those below us, it's those above us who have been safe all season who should really be bricking it. We know we now have the players who can, most of the time, give anybody a game and we have plenty of winnable games remaining. There are teams above us in freefall who thought they were safe but have been dragged into this. Other than probably Barnsley, the relegated teams could be anybody from Sheffield Wednesday downwards. I think Hull could well be one of the other two and it could take a record points tally to survive. |
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Post by tachyon on Feb 26, 2020 9:39:19 GMT
Here's the rolling six game expected goals differential for the bottom six teams after last night's games. Attachment DeletedTime spent with a positive differential is an indicator of each team's core talent. So Stoke/Middlesbro > Huddersfield > Wigan > Barnsley/Luton. Where a side is/was at a particular stage of the season is a measure of their current form during that period. Currently all the bottom six are playing broadly equivalent to a 10th-12th placed Championship side. The former measure (time spent in the positive) is a better indicator of long term performance, unfortuanately the immediate long term only has 12/11 games to run. |
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Post by vahl on Feb 26, 2020 13:26:15 GMT
Few weeks ago I thought it was going one way but, have us finishing about 13th on 60 points now.
I reckon WBA & Leeds go up automatic. Fancy Forest to fall out of the top 6. Fulham go up through play-offs.
Wigan, Barnsley & Luton for the drop.
Go on Stoke
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Post by Vadiation_Ribe on Feb 26, 2020 15:58:07 GMT
We'll be bottom 3 tonight if we lose to Blackburn, Middlesborough lose to Leeds but better our result and Wigan beat Reading by 6. Okay it wont happen but the fact that it is even possible after we have put together 19 games of near play off form is extraordinary. It's crazy really but I think rather than us worrying about those below us, it's those above us who have been safe all season who should really be bricking it. We know we now have the players who can, most of the time, give anybody a game and we have plenty of winnable games remaining. There are teams above us in freefall who thought they were safe but have been dragged into this. Other than probably Barnsley, the relegated teams could be anybody from Sheffield Wednesday downwards. I think Hull could well be one of the other two and it could take a record points tally to survive. I really can't see Wednesday, Derby or Birmingham getting relegated on 51 points (which they only need two more wins for - assuming the latter two don't get points deductions). With a fit Rooney, Derby should be fine. Reading, with a win less, are slightly vulnerable, but unless they start shipping goals, they're almost safe too. We could still be relegated, but especially after the Cardiff performance (coming off the two losses), I think we're more likely to stay up than the teams around us. 7 points from the next 15 points available will be tough, but is very achievable and will see us almost there, needing 7 points from the last 7 games to total 51 points. I still feel there's a panic in the squad if we lose the next two, particularly with one being against Luton! I agree with your opening comments - there will be teams who thought they were safe, and since O'Neill came along, Stoke more than any team around the bottom are capable of beating anyone. |
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Post by Little Gary Patel on Feb 26, 2020 20:30:37 GMT
Barnsley & Wigan winning  |
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Post by mrteddysalad on Feb 26, 2020 20:36:40 GMT
relax, there's still 45 minutes to play and its Barnsley and Wigan
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appreciate the effort. 
